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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another split slate Wednesday, and we’ll have eight games sectioned off for the main slate action! This slate will feature a quality mix of pitching and upside offenses/stacks, and that is reflected in these over/unders today -- four games have at least a 9.0 over/under, with the Coors Field game predictably leading the way with an 11.0 O/U. Three games could trend toward pitching duels given their ≤ 7.5 O/U. This should be a fun day of baseball so let’s waste no time and get right down to business. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/25 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL at NYM (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Another hot evening in New York with gametime temps around 90 degrees. Low-end chance of a stray storm sparking a delay, but not a major concern.

• NYY at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few scattered storms are moving through the general area. If one makes their way over the ballpark, it could lead to a delay, but PPD risk is minimal. Warm temps in the mid-80s and very light winds OUT to right.

• TB at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Hot (~90 degrees) and humid with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Bump to bats.

• SEA at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): This will be the main spot to monitor. They’re getting some heavy rain throughout the afternoon, but the current expectation is that it’ll clear, or be lightening up, around gametime. A lengthy late start still may be necessary here, and a PPD cannot totally be ruled out. So the best course of action will be to check in on the forecast closer to first pitch. Temps will be around 70 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

• CHC at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another spot where there will be some low-coverage scattered storms around. Chances are that they miss the ballpark entirely, but a chance for a delay is there if one pops over the park.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. MIA

We’ve got a handful of aces on the mound for this slate so we’re pretty spoiled in the pitching department. A strong case can be made for all of these guys, but Logan Webb receives the spotlight. He heads into tonight’s game with some excellent form -- over his last five starts, Webb has pitched to a 2.12 ERA, 2.16 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 30.1% kRate, and 3.0% BB%. He’s averaging over 100 pitches/gm in that stretch and has covered at least six innings in all five games, so he’s a great bet to pitch deep into tonight’s contest. Webb has also been sharper at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park where he owns a minuscule 1.35 ERA and 85.1% Left-on-Base% this season (versus 3.75 ERA & 69.4% LOB% on the road).

The Marlins have been a little scrappy lately, and they aren’t striking out a ton, but they still check in at 22nd or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. They’re hitting for a solid .269 AVG against righties in that stretch, which ranks 6th in MLB, but their overall lack of power has led them to seldomly produce extra-base hits. It’s not a perfect matchup by any means, but Webb should be a very trustworthy option tonight, and the Giants (-232 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | at SF

We’ll go to Logan Webb’s counterpart to spotlight a much more affordable option in Edward Cabrera. Cabrera has been sharp over his last six outings (29.2 IP) where he has come away with a 2.12 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, .220 opp AVG, and 30.1% kRate. Cabrera’s numbers have tanked once he gets to the third time through the order, which is my guess as to why the Marlins tend to keep his pitch count pretty low (79.2 pitches/gm L6Starts) in order to avoid those later blow-up innings. So he is not likely to cover 6+ innings -- even though he cleared six innings in his last outing, that was the first time Cabrera had accomplished that in a dozen starts this season. Cabrera held this Giants lineup in check back on May 31st when he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings with five Ks, and he earned the win. That game was in Miami, and the Giants didn’t have Rafael Devers on their roster at that point, but this is still a solid spot for him to find some further success.

The Giants have been a very mediocre, ho-hum offense for much of the season. However, they have picked it up against RHPs lately -- their 128 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks ranks 5th in MLB. Their kRate against righties tends to hover around 20% as a team, though, there are five players in the projected San Fran lineup that have at least a 23.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season, so there are some punchouts to be had with some of these Giants hitters. Looking at Cabrera’s primary pitch mix, which features changeup, sinker, and curveball, we’ll find that the Giants have the lowest HardHit% in MLB against that pitch mix at just 35.7%. They’re also 26th with a .313 xwOBA versus those pitches. Even with the newly acquired Devers factored into the lineup, this is still a spot where Cabrera can deliver five solid innings of work.

Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | at NYM

As mentioned, there are plenty of ‘safe’ aces you can roll with today -- Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, and Max Fried being the primary targets with Yoshinobu Yamamoto also being an option, even at Coors Field. But if you’re willing to get aggressive with an even cheaper arm than the aforementioned Edward Cabrera, Didier Fuentes could pique some interest. Fuentes is a very raw talent that has rapidly ascended the minor league rankings this season, going from High-A to the MLB in this calendar year alone, and he only made one Triple-A start before being called up to the big club. FanGraphs has Fuentes as the Braves’ No. 3 prospect and the No. 82 overall prospect in MLB. Across 39.1 IP in MiLB this year, Fuentes posted a lackluster 4.81 ERA that was backed up by a considerably stronger 3.33 xFIP. Strikeout ability was a strength for Fuentes, given his 28.9% KRate [in MiLB], and he held opponents to a low .212 AVG while also limiting walks (7.2% BB%) and posting a very respectable 1.12 WHIP. His MLB debut came five days ago against the Marlins -- it wasn’t a total disaster, but things also did not go well as Fuentes allowed four runs on six hits and a walk across 5.0 IP (87 pitches), and he only recorded three strikeouts. We’ll see if he can settle in and find more success in his second outing.

A freefalling Mets team that is now 1-10 over their last 11 games may give Fuentes some confidence if their bats continue to struggle. Since their losing skid began on June 13th, the Mets are hitting just .211 as a team with a .633 OPS, 80 wRC+, and 25.2% kRate. They’re also hitting for a .190 AVG with a 31.1% kRate in that span when they’ve had runners in scoring position. With all of that said, in reality, this is probably a better spot for the Mets to get back on track as they look to take advantage of a very inexperienced pitcher on the mound, but if that doesn’t come to fruition, Fuentes may come away with a surprisingly solid outing at low ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.9k | at HOU

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | at CIN

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k | at COL

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | at STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Even when the Cubs’ offense isn’t going strong you often get some quality fantasy production out of the core hitters in this lineup. Their offense has cooled somewhat in recent weeks, yet they’re still top 10 in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L30Days. They’re also 2nd in MLB with 29 stolen bases over the previous month, which is always a bonus for DFS upside. On the season, they have also ranked as the No. 2 road offense, averaging a sturdy 5.59 runs/gm.

Erick Fedde is very much a “bend, don’t break” kind of starter. He owns a respectable 3.54 ERA through his 15 starts this season. However, his 4.89 xFIP is the worst mark among today’s starting pitchers, and that figure tells us that regression is due at some point! He has also posted a 5.30 xFIP at home this season with a poor 1.42 WHIP and 13.1% kRate; he has averaged 38.5% less FPPG at home as well. The Cubs also match up well against Fedde’s primary pitch mix -- sinker, cutter, and sweeper make up ~90% of his arsenal. Against that pitch mix, the Cubs are 2nd in MLB with a .301 AVG and 3rd with a .374 wOBA. The Cardinals bullpen has been very solid of late, but they did use four different relievers in yesterday’s game (all of whom threw 15+ pitches), so they may not be at full strength today.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ

Bargain Bat: Nico Hoerner

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

The Rays continue to be a bit of an underrated offense but they’ve been tagging right-handed pitching in a big way of late. Versus RHPs L2Weeks, the Rays own a .313 AVG (1st), .879 OPS (1st), .383 wOBA (1st), .188 ISO (8th), and 153 wRC+ (1st). Their power (ISO) may not be at the very top of the rankings but they still have been excellent from an overall offensive standpoint. They’re also aggressive on the bases with an MLB-leading 103 stolen bases this season. Kauffman Stadium has not been a very hitter-friendly ballpark this season, ranking 28th in Park Factor, but it is tough to ignore the hitter-friendly weather conditions in Kansas City this evening; gametime temps will be around 85-90 degrees and there will be some 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left field.

Michael Wacha is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but he has shown some struggles of late with a 4.91 xFIP and 1.80 HR/9 Rate over his last five starts. He has also allowed a high 54.3% FlyBall% over the last month, which could give way to a couple of Rays homers tonight given those aforementioned hitter-friendly weather conditions. The Royals have an ‘okay’ bullpen to deploy once Wacha’s evening is done, though they have posted the 11th-highest WHIP and a 4+ ERA over the previous month.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz

Bargain Bat: Chandler Simpson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

Every hitter in the projected Mariners lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn% with eight hitters under 5% pOwn%. This will be a meeting between a hot offense versus an ace-caliber pitcher. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Mariners trail only the Rays in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, and they’re 4th in batting average and 7th in ISO. They’re also tied for 1st in MLB in stolen bases L2Weeks (12).

Joe Ryan has been great this season (2.93 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 28.3% kRate) and tends to be at his best at home (+20.2% more FPPG). Though, he has been dinged up a bit in the month of June, where he has a middling 4.43 ERA. Still, getting significant damage against Ryan is going to be difficult. If the Mariners chance him off the mound early, however, they’ll get some extra at-bats against a Twins bullpen that has put up an 8.68 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, and .349 opp AVG over the last two weeks. So this could be a stack that breaks through later in the game at low ownership.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford

Bargain Bat: Luke Raley/Donovan Solano

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

3B Alec Bohm, PHI vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

2B Thairo Estrada, COL vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

SS Masyn Winn, STL vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

OF Luke Raley, SEA vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

3B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B Donovan Solano, SEA vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Junior Caminero MORE than 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Pete Crow-Armstrong MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!