Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 6/24 | It's Takedown Tuesday with a Dozen Games on Tap! ⚾

Tuesday, June 24th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/X and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

In typical Tuesday fashion, we will have a mammoth main slate on tap with a dozen games on the board! At first glance, I’d say pitching looks pretty deep today with a load of quality arms frontloaded at the top of SP pricing. By 12-game slate standards, the number of viable hitters/stacks may seem a little thin, but there are still ample options that could/should work. Oh, and we’ve got the Dodgers at Coors Field along with more scorching-hot temperatures (aka, a theoretical boost for offense) at several of the East Coast ballparks. Outside of a few spots where a stray storm or shower is a low-end possibility, rain should not be much of an issue. It’s a busy day ahead so let’s get into the action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/24 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • ATL at NYM (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Hot and humid. Temps are hitting 100 degrees in New York today and will only drop to the mid-90s during the game.

  • NYY at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Hot (~90 degrees) and humid with light 5 mph winds OUT to left. Can’t 100% rule out a pop-up storm, but it’s not likely.

  • TB at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Storms should hold north of the ballpark, but maybe monitor things here to be sure. The worst-case scenario would only be a delay. Gametime temps will be 85-90 degrees with near 10 mph winds, mostly right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

  • SEA at MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 80 degrees with light winds IN from left. Low-end chance of a shower or two.

  • ARI at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Maybe the one game to monitor the closest, as there is a long band of storms heading northeast toward Chicago. Currently, there isn’t much PPD risk, and there’s plenty of time for the forecast to improve. However, there is at least a moderate chance of some sort of delay here.

  • CHC at STL (7:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Similar outlook to KC. Storms should hold north of the ballpark, but this forecast is worth tracking in case of any changes. 90 degrees with light winds OUT to left.

  • LAD at COL (8:40 ET, 12.0 O/U): Storms could pop in the afternoon but clear, or in the process of clearing, around first pitch. Comfortably temps in the 70s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | at LAA

There are over a handful of truly excellent starting pitchers to choose from on this slate, but Crochet might be in a one-man tier of his own today. He continues to put together an All-Star caliber campaign and heads into tonight in some excellent form. Over his previous five starts, Crochet has produced a 2.65 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 35.1% kRate, and 4.5% BB%. He posted those numbers against some solid competition as well -- Yankees (twice), Mariners, Brewers, and Braves. He has also been more stout from a DFS perspective on the road this season, where he has averaged +42% more FPPG. His kRate on the season has jumped from 27.0% at home to 33.6% on the road.

The matchup is fairly strong as the Angels have ranked 20th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against LHPs L30Days. And, perhaps most importantly, their 29.3% K-rate against lefties in that span is the 2nd highest in MLB, and they’ve had the lowest walk rate at just 3.3% (not that Crochet walks many batters, to begin with). The only thing we have to worry about here is the sneaky-good power that this Angels’ lineup has displayed against lefties -- their .194 ISO vs. LHPs L30Days is 4th in MLB and they’ve mashed 13 HRs (T-2nd most) off of LHPs in that span. That said, Crochet has only given up nine home runs all season, which equates to a low 0.79 HR/9 Rate over his 102.1 IP. If you want to spend up on “Dodgers at Coors” bats, Crochet is going to be difficult to roster, but I’d be shocked if he is anything but electric in this matchup.

 

Freddy Peralta (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. PIT

Peralta may not have pitched at a truly elite level, but outside of two or three starts across his 16 outings this season, he has provided some steady production. He brings a 2.76 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 24.8% kRate into tonight’s game. The 4+ xFIP tells us that he has benefited from some good fortune and could be due for some regression. That said, he has rocked a sparkling 1.32 ERA and an improved 3.84 xFIP at home this season to go along with a .185 opp AVG and 0.90 WHIP. Peralta has allowed 10 barrels L30Days, placing him in the bottom 5th percentile, but that is less of a concern given the matchup.

The Pirates have mustered just a 64 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, 3rd lowest in baseball, and their .091 ISO in that same sample size is comfortably dead last in MLB, so there has been very little pop and barreled balls mashed by this lineup. Their 23.3% kRate, while not overly high, is still the 9th highest versus RHPs L2Weeks. On the season, the Pirates have the fourth-lowest wOBA (.299) and lowest ISO (.107) against Peralta’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, changeup, curveball), so that’s a more significant sample size that backs up what we see on the field, which is a general lack of power for the Pittsburgh hitters as a whole. I would love to see a little bit more strikeout production out of Peralta but, overall, it’s tough not to like the spot for him today.

 

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | at CWS

If you’re going down the salary-saver route at pitcher, or need an affordable SP2 on DraftKings, Ryne Nelson is going to make about as much sense as any of the cheaper options. Nelson was a full-time starter with the D-Backs the last two seasons but has alternated between working in a “long reliever” bullpen role and as a starter in the rotation. This will be his seventh game as a starter this season, and his fourth turn in the rotation in a row. The results across his 55.2 IP this season won’t blow you away, but they’ve been rock-solid -- 3.88 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, .204 opp AVG, and 19.8% kRate. Nelson’s quality 107 Stuff+ rating is on par with another arm on this slate, Framber Valdez, and those two trail only Garrett Crochet today, who owns a 114 Stuff+ rating. So, even though he doesn’t generate a ton of swing-and-miss, Nelson has shown some good, quality pitches this season and is at the 97th percentile in fastball run value. He got up to 83 pitches in his most recent outing so he should be able to handle the lion’s share of a traditional starter’s workload.

Picking on the White Sox with pitching isn’t revolutionary, and it occasionally backfires. But we can feel fairly confident in Nelson today. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the White Sox are dead last in MLB in AVG (.184), OPS (.541), wOBA (.243), and wRC+ (51) while also putting up a high 26.9% kRate (3rd highest). We should expect five, maybe even six, quality innings out of Nelson this evening.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $9.5k | at NYM

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. PHI

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYY (No. 11 overall MLB prospect making his debut)

Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Justin Wrobleski (LHP), LAD

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

This will be the season debut for Frankie Montas as he has been sidelined since mid-February with a lat strain. Whether he is truly ready to contribute to the big club is up for debate because Montas’ rehab stint, which covered 18.2 IP across six starts between High-A and Triple-A, did not go over well whatsoever. In those rehab innings, Montas came away with a 12.05 ERA, 6.25 xFIP, 2.14 WHIP, .353 opp AVG, 12.4% kRate, and he surrendered eight home runs (3.86 HR/9 Rate). Again, keep in mind, those awful numbers came against minor-league hitters.

Aside from Ronald Acuña Jr. playing at an MVP-caliber pace since returning from his second ACL tear, the rest of the Braves’ offense has been streaky and often unreliable. As a result, most of their key offensive metrics are very much middle-of-the-pack, at best. However, Atlanta has hit for a quality average (.279) and wOBA (.353) against RHP fastballs this season. Montas threw all three fastball types (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) as his top three most utilized pitches in 2024. Montas got up to 80 pitches in his latest rehab outing but will likely still have a fairly short leash in his debut. So, if the Braves do get to him early, they’d likely see some additional at-bats against bullpen arms. The Mets’ bullpen has been good on the season as a whole, but have struggled of late. Over the last two weeks, they’ve posted the 10th worst ERA (5.14), 7th highest WHIP (1.49), and 5th highest opponent batting average (.278). Hot and humid conditions in New York this evening will also make Citi Field a bit less of a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Drake Baldwin

 

Seattle Mariners vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

I’m willing to give the Mariners a bit of a heat check here after they carried over their offensive momentum from the Cubs series to yesterday’s game against the Twins, where they plated 11 runs with four homers. The Mariners rank 1st in MLB in OPS (.874), wOBA (.378), and wRC+ (152) against RHPs L2Weeks and they have an MLB-leading 14 stolen bases in that stretch as well.

Chris Paddack has had some good outings this season, which includes a stellar performance versus this same Mariners team back on June 1st (8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10 K) but, overall, he has posted some very lackluster results -- 4.48 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, and 16.7% kRate -- and he’s not immune to a blow-up outing. Also, perhaps the quicker the Mariners chase Paddack off the mound, the better. As mentioned yesterday, this Twins’ bullpen has been atrocious lately. Over the last two weeks, they’ve put up an MLB-worst 9.96 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, .372 opp AVG, and 17.2% kRate.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena

Bargain Bat: Luke Raley/Dominic Canzone

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

Every hitter in the projected Brewers lineup has a ≤ 6% pOwn%. After a pretty nice start to the year, Heaney has been a very subpar starter. Spanning his last 10 starts, Heaney has come away with a 5.29 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 1.80 HR/9 Rate, and 13.4% kRate. And those numbers are with Heaney receiving some fortunate BABIP luck in that stretch. He also heads into this game ranking in the bottom 20th percentile of pitchers in average exit velo, batted-ball distance, and barrels allowed L30Days.

On the offensive end, the Brewers have rated out as a top-five offense versus LHPs over the last month. In that span, they are 2nd in AVG (.303), 5th in OPS (.821), 5th in wOBA (.358), and 5th in wRC+ (128). There is also no reason to shy away from utilizing the Brewers’ lefty bats here as Heaney has displayed some poor reverse splits -- .369 wOBA, .286 ISO, 1.96 HR/9 Rate vs. LHBs. The Brewers’ offense has been insanely good on the road (5.65 runs/gm, 1st in MLB) but has massively underperformed at home (3.59 runs/gm, 27th in MLB). So, here’s hoping they can buck that trend today.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang

Bargain Bat: Isaac Collins

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Jordan Leasure (RHP), CWS

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Justin Wrobleski (LHP), LAD

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

1B Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Luke Raley, SEA cs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Ceddane Rafaela, BOS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

2B/3B Brooks Lee, MIN vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Dominic Canzone, SEA vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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