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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s officially time for another Friday MLB frenzy with a massive 13-game slate on the board! This slate will have a little bit of everything -- several aces on the bump, multiple risk/reward value pitchers, Coors Field is back in play, plenty of viable non-Coors stacks, and there are quite a few ballparks that will feature some hitter-friendly weather! Rain also appears to be a potential issue in only one or two spots. It’s gonna be a wild one so let’s get right into the belly of the beast! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I’m traveling today so I have to trim this newsletter down a bit!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/20 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET at TB (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Likely the only real trouble spot on the slate. They’ve been fairly lucky by avoiding storms in Tampa the last few days but there is a stronger possibility that some rain will make its way to the ballpark in some capacity this evening with scattered storms in the forecast. That said, the game should get through nine innings, but a late start or in-game delay could be in the cards. Mid-80s temps with light winds IN from center/left.

• BAL at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Very low-end chance of a late start with a small batch of storms potentially moving in late afternoon or just ahead of first pitch. 80 degrees to start with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

• CIN at STL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): 85-90 degrees with fairly high humidity levels. 10 mph winds blowing a bit right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

• NYM at PHI (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): 80 degrees, 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

• MIL at MIN (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-80s temps but some 10 mph winds blowing IN from right/center will negate those warm temps a bit, so it’s likely closer to neutral conditions rather than hitter or pitcher-friendly.

• ARI at COL (8:40 ET, 12.0 O/U): Temps in the 90s for the entire game with 10-15 mph winds OUT to right. Clearly some excellent hitting weather at an already extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. No surprise to see that 12-run over/under pinned here!

• CLE at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): It won’t be too warm with temps only in the 70s, but some 10+ mph winds will be blowing OUT to center, which remains a plus for MLB bats hitting in a minor league ballpark.

• BOS at SF (10:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): You’ll notice some strong 15+ mph winds blowing OUT to dead center here, but just remember that Oracle Park’s design mitigates wind impact and it’ll still be difficult to hit home runs here. Cool temps in the upper-50s as well.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $11.2k, FD: $10.2k | at LAA

Brown has been good-to-great in 13-of-14 starts this season, with his lone dud coming on the road against the Rays back on May 21st. His 1.88 ERA on the season is bested only by Paul Skenes (1.85 ERA) among qualified starters and he’s rocking an excellent 32.3% kRate. Brown is also 5th among MLB starters (min. 70 IP) with a 111 Stuff+ rating, so the quality of his pitches has been elite as well.

The Angels are coming off of a series where they took three-of-four games from the Yankees on the road, but that series win had more to do with the Angels' pitching which also caught the Yankees offense in a major slump. The Angels are 24th in MLB with a 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks and their 26.8% kRate ranks as the 3rd highest in that span as well. It’s hard to imagine Hunter Brown having a rare letdown performance here, and with 13 games on the board, finding value elsewhere in order to fit Brown into lineups shouldn’t be a problem.

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $9k, FD: $8.5k | at MIN

Bit of a gamble here as it will be only Misiorowski’s second MLB start, and his first on the road, but you can’t deny this kid’s talent. Before suffering an apparent leg injury and getting removed from the game during his MLB debut last Thursday, Misiorowski threw five no-hit, shutout innings on 81 pitches while snagging five Ks and allowing four walks. Shaky plate command, which leads to those walks, is his one major flaw. But the towering 6’7” righty has a truly electric fastball that averaged 99.0 mph, and topped out at 102.5 mph, in his debut. Misiorowski’s secondary pitch, the slider, also generated a 50% Whiff% last week. If he can get the walks under control, he has all of the tools needed to become an ace at the big league level -- one pitcher that Misiorowski has routinely drawn comps to is Tyler Glasnow.

Misiorowski was originally slated to make his second MLB start on Wednesday against the Cubs, but that game was rained out. I’d say drawing the Twins instead of the Cubs represents a solid matchup upgrade. That’s not to say that the Twins are currently pushovers, and they actually head into this game with an MLB-leading 139 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Leadoff man Byron Buxton has also mashed four homers in his last three games. That said, there are a good amount of Ks to be had against this lineup, and Misiorowski’s “stuff” is capable of playing well in any matchup… he’s just gotta keep those pesky walks under control. There are plenty of safer pitchers you could go to today, but Misiorowski is an intriguing leverage option for GPPs and could check in at ~5% ownership tonight.

Janson Junk (RHP), MIA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. ATL

If you really want to get aggressive in your lineup construction, sprinkling Janson Junk in might just pay off. This will be Junk’s first start since 2023, but he has been extremely sharp working in a bulk relief role thus far this season. Junk has made only five appearances this season, but has covered at least four innings in every outing. His single-game high in pitches is 68 so, as a starter, he may only be stretched out enough for around a 75-80 pitch count workload. But he is dirt cheap and, if he continues to pitch as well as he has over his first five outings, he may return some nice value. Junk owns a quality 2.78 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 22.5% kRate, 12.6% SwStr%, and 2.2% BB% this season. The plate command has been elite and Junk’s 117 Location+ rating is 4th among MLB pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown. Based on his SwStr%, Junk’s kRate *should* be closer to 25% as well.

My Braves are riding high following a sweep of the Mets at home, but this could be a letdown spot for the Atlanta offense. The Braves have struggled on the road all throughout this season and, against RHPs on the road L30Days, they rank 20th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Their 23.7% kRate in those splits is also the 8th highest in MLB. Even with a likely limited pitch count, it truly wouldn’t surprise me if Junk pitches five, potentially six, strong innings today with at least a handful of strikeouts.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. NYM

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. BAL

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. MIL

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | at TB (Monitor weather!)

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. WAS

Hunter Dobbins (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | at SF

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Blade Tidwell (RHP), NYM

Following a four-game road trip in Miami, the Phillies return home, where they tend to be at their best offensively and average 5.05 runs/gm (5th in MLB) versus 4.30 runs/gm away (17th in MLB). Against RHPs at home L2Weeks (184 PAs), Philly is hitting .329 with a .928 OPS, .402 wOBA, and 159 wRC+.

The Mets head in on a six-game skid after getting swept by the Rays and Braves, so morale may be pretty low here (and their offense has to deal with Zack Wheeler). They’ll be handing the ball to RHP Blade Tidwell, who is set to make just his second MLB start. Tidwell’s debut did not go over so well back on May 4th against St. Louis where he allowed six runs on nine hits (one HR) and three walks with just two strikeouts across 3.2 IP (82 pitches). Across 62.1 IP down in Triple-A this year, Tidwell has come away with a rather lackluster 4.76 ERA and 4.31 xFIP. Following Tidwell will be a Mets bullpen that has ranked bottom-10 L2Weeks with a 4.68 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and .291 opp AVG.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos

Bargain Bat: Alec Bohm/Brandon Marsh

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Grant Taylor (RHP)/[possibly] Tyler Alexander (LHP), CWS

Toronto is another offense that has some significantly better home splits. They’ve averaged 5.22 runs/gm at home this season, which trails only the Dodgers (6.18 runs/gm) and D-Backs (5.24 runs/gm). By comparison, they’ve been the fourth-worst road offense, averaging just 3.39 runs/gm. So at home is generally where we’re going to want to target the Blue Jays bats. At home L30Days, they’ve mashed for a .315 AVG, .947 OPS, .406 wOBA, .240 ISO, 168 wRC+, and 13.1% kRate. In those splits, Toronto ranks 1st in every category.

RHP Davis Martin was originally scheduled to start today but was placed on the 15-day IL this afternoon due to a right forearm strain. That puts the White Sox in a bit of a pickle and they’ll now turn to reliever RHP Grant Taylor, who has made four one-inning appearances at the big league level. Taylor is, in all likelihood, only serving as an opener and will pitch one, maybe two, innings. It’s unclear who will serve as the White Sox’s bulk reliever, but there is a decent chance that it’ll be LHP Tyler Alexander, who Chicago signed to a one-year deal earlier this month after Alexander was DFA’d by Milwaukee following some unspectacular production (44.0 IP, 5.73 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .282 opp AVG, 17.7% kRate). A not-so-great White Sox bullpen is also stretched thin today following a doubleheader against the Cardinals yesterday in which seven CWS relievers were used across the two games. So, regardless of who the White Sox roll out following Taylor as the opener, the potent “home Blue Jays” are going to be in a promising spot.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger, Bo Bichette

Bargain Bat: Alejandro Kirk

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

Every hitter in the projected Astros lineup has a ≤ 5% pOwn%. Houston may no longer be in the hitter’s paradise that is Sutter Health Park, but I’ll continue to take a shot on some of these bats with another lefty pitcher on deck. Against LHPs L30Days (151 PAs), the Astros rank 1st in MLB with each of the following metrics: .323 AVG, 1.036 OPS, .443 wOBA, .308 ISO, and 194 wRC+. Monster numbers. Their 17.2% kRate against lefties is also the second-lowest in baseball during those 30 days.

Kikuchi isn’t a bad lefty arm by any stretch, and he has been dominant at home where he has pitched to a minuscule 1.05 ERA over 34.1 IP. However, his 4.54 xFIP at home tells us that he has been very fortunate to maintain such a low ERA in Angels Stadium. Considering how productive Houston has been against LHPs, perhaps this is the blow-up home game for Kikuchi. And, while the Angels’ bullpen’s surface numbers have been good lately, they still own the 6th worst xFIP in MLB L2Weeks and, on the season, have been one of the worst bullpens in baseball. So, overall, we could get some nice production out of several of these Astros hitters.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Jake Meyers

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!