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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most of Thursday’s MLB action, which includes a pair of doubleheaders, is going down this afternoon so we’ll be left with a modest five-game evening main slate! By five-game slate standards, we have a decent mix of pitching and stack-worthy offenses to consider. Unlike yesterday, weather won’t be much of a pain, which is always a welcomed addition to any slate. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/19 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYM at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Storms are moving through the area this afternoon but should be clear by first pitch. Warm temps in the low 80s with 5-10 mph winds blowing right-to-left.

• BAL at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): As is usually the case in Florida this time of year, some scattered storms will be around. They are more likely to avoid the ballpark in Tampa this evening, but we can’t completely rule out the risk of a delay if one does make its way over to Steinbrenner Field. Mid-80s temps with light ~5 mph winds OUT to right.

• HOU at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): It’s nowhere close to as hot as last night, with temps mostly in the mid/upper 70s this evening, but there will be 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left, so it remains a quality spot for offense.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.1k | vs. SD

Yamamoto has thrown up a couple of duds within his last three starts but we’ll see if he can right the ship today. The season-long numbers remain sharp for Yamamoto: 2.64 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 28.9% kRate. He has also forced a high 56.3% GroundBall%, which ranks 5th among all qualified MLB starters.

The Padres aren’t typically an offense I look to attack with pitching. Even when their bats are struggling, they generally do not strike out much. That’s reflected in their splits versus RHPs L30Days. The offensive numbers have been well below par in those splits, as they rank 26th with a .300 wOBA, 25th with a .130 ISO, and 23rd with a 93 wRC+. They have also posted the 5th highest groundball rate versus RHPs L30Days (44.8%), which does play into Yamamoto’s strength as a groundball pitcher. However, their 19.4% kRate in that span is also the 5th lowest in MLB. Yamamoto has a deep pitch arsenal but has utilized the four-seamer, splitter, and curveball as his primary pitches. Versus that pitch mix, the Padres own the 2nd lowest average exit velo and 4th lowest HardHit%. So, while the strikeouts may not be there in abundance, Yamamoto does set up pretty well in this matchup and the Dodgers (-272 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | at ATH

Gordon is coming off of back-to-back promising outings, and we finally saw the leash get extended in his last start against the Twins where he reached a season-high 102 pitches (his previous high was 85 pitches). Gordon’s 4.70 ERA across his six starts is backed up by a much stronger 3.30 xFIP, indicating he’s been fairly unlucky (largely due to a high .348 opponent BABIP). He has also put up a solid 23.1% kRate while showing excellent command of the plate with a super low 3.1% BB% and a strong 110 Location+ rating.

The hitter-friendly profile of Sutter Health Park (#2 in Park Factor), along with the typically hitter-friendly weather conditions in Sacramento, often make targeting pitchers here a risky proposition. That said, Colton Gordon carries some affordable DFS price points and the A’s haven’t exactly been crushing left-handed pitching lately. Against LHPs L2Weeks (120 PAs), the A’s have mustered just a .193 AVG, .551 OPS, .251 wOBA, .092 ISO, and 59 wRC+ while striking out at a 25.0% clip. On the season, the A’s have also posted the highest kRate (26.4%) against the left-handed pitch mix of four-seamer, sweeper, and sinker -- Gordon’s three most utilized pitches. So, while it is often tough for pitchers to limit the damage in this ballpark, if the A’s struggles against lefties continue, Gordon should be able to come away with a quality stat line and a decent strikeout total tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $10.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. NYM

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | at MIA

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

Charlie Morton has shown some positive signs in recent outings, but it is still tough to ignore the season-long results which consist of a 6.05 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 1.48 HR/9 Rate, and 11.2% BB%. Morton has also put up a 7.97 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and .393 opp wOBA on the road this season. His kRate also dips from 26.1% at home to 18.6% away. The O’s also dug deep into their bullpen in yesterday’s shootout, which saw a combined 20 runs scored. In total, five relievers came in to pitch last night and three of those guys threw at least 25 pitches, meaning they’re unlikely to be available tonight.

The Rays have been among the best offenses against RHPs over the last month. In that span, they’ve hit for a .271 AVG (1st), .808 OPS (1st), .353 wOBA (1st), .187 ISO (4th), and 133 wRC+ (1st). They have also stolen an MLB-high 38 bases over the previous month, eight more than the second-place team (SEA, 30 SB L30Days). On the season, the Rays are also 4th in MLB with a .360 wOBA against Morton’s top two pitches (curveball & four-seamer). Despite some elite DFS production, the entire Rays’ lineup features some affordable price points, allowing more salary to be spent on high-end pitching or premium bats.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz

Bargain Bat: Jake Mangum

Houston Astros vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

The Astros’ offense has certainly enjoyed their last couple of days at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park as they have combined to score 24 runs on 35 hits (8 HRs) in the last two games! With a lefty on the mound for the A’s, the high-level offensive output may continue. As mentioned a couple of days ago, while the Astros have not seen a ton of lefty pitching over the last month, they have statistically been, by far, the best offense in MLB when facing a lefty. Against LHPs L30Days (128 PAs), Houston owns a .342 AVG, 1.107 OPS, .470 wOBA, .351 ISO, 213 wRC+, 26.8% HR/FB Rate, and 14.8% kRate. Needless to say, Houston ranks 1st in each of those offensive categories.

Jacob Lopez does own an excellent 29.0% kRate but, as pointed out, the Astros are not K’ing much at all against lefties. Aside from the kRate, the numbers for Lopez are suspect. Across 30.0 IP this season, he’s working with a 4.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate. He’s shown traditional splits, so he has been worse against RHBs, and Houston should be rolling out a full lineup of nine RHBs this evening. Lopez also forces very few groundball outs. Among MLB pitchers with at least 30.0 IP this season, Lopez’s 17.7% GroundBall% is the second-lowest in baseball. As you might expect, he does allow a ton of flyballs as a result, with a 59.5% Flyball% (5th highest in MLB). That’s a bad recipe against an Astros team that has hit for a home run on over a quarter of their flyballs against LHPs over the last month. And winds will be blowing out to left at 10-15 mph at the ballpark tonight. The A’s bullpen, which has already been one of the worst in bullpens in the league (arguably THE worst, given their 6.13 ERA and 1.65 WHIP), is also overtaxed after throwing a combined 192 pitches over the last two days. It’s going to be tough not to like these Houston bats once again.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Cam Smith/Jake Meyers/Mauricio Dubon

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

It’s always a tall order to find an under-the-radar stack when there are just 10 teams to choose from. That said, it does look like the Marlins will catch the lowest ownership today with 8-of-9 hitters in the projected lineup having a ≤ 8% pOwn%. Cristopher Sanchez does have a 30% pOwn% on both DK and FD, so it makes sense. However, the matchup may not be a cakewalk for Sanchez as the Marlins have been quite scrappy against left-handed pitching of late. Versus LHPs L2Weeks (172 PAs), Miami has hit for a .321 AVG (ranks 2nd), .869 OPS (4th), .374 wOBA (4th), .186 ISO (6th), and 138 wRC+ (4th) while striking out at a low 19.8% clip (9th lowest kRate).

Sanchez is certainly a very good lefty arm, and likely a higher-quality pitcher than most of the LHPs that Miami has had their recent success against. But, historically, when Sanchez runs into trouble, it tends to happen on the road. Miami could also do a bit of damage against a Phillies bullpen that has been a bottom-10 group of relievers over the last month. In that stretch, the PHI bullpen owns a 4.68 ERA (7th worst), 4.60 xFIP (2nd worst), 1.53 WHIP (3rd highest), .272 opp AVG (3rd highest), and 18.8% kRate (3rd lowest). As usual with these low-owned stack options, you don’t have to go wild with a full four or five-man stack. A two or three-man Miami stack would be plenty enough to gain some leverage on the field in tournaments.

Favorite MIA Bats: Dane Myers, Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Eric Wagaman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jake Mangum, TB vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

3B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Jake Meyers, HOU vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

2B Tommy Edman, LAD vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Dane Myers, MIA vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Heriberto Hernandez, MIA vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

2B/OF Mauricio Dubon, HOU vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Brandon Lowe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Colton Gordon MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!