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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a busier-than-usual Wednesday with 11 games lined up on the main slate ticket! Weather is expected to threaten several games this evening, and it wouldn’t be a shock if multiple games get postponed due to poor conditions. We’ll delve into that in more detail below, but please ensure you stay on top of the at-risk games. Pitching looks “good, not great” today, and there will be plenty of stack-worthy offenses to consider. Let’s dive into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/18 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): A scattered batch of storms is heading toward New York this afternoon and will likely arrive sometime around the scheduled first pitch. They might get lucky and avoid all trouble, but a late start or in-game delay is also a strong possibility. PPD risk isn’t very high, so they should get nine innings in. If a late start is announced, pitchers will be safer to target.

• MIN at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Tricky outlook here as there is a large band of severe storms (as in tornado-producing storms) moving toward Cincy this afternoon, but it’s looking like it could possibly pass north of the ballpark. However, it may track south or there could be more rain that develops behind that initial system. So, the outcome could be anything from “game plays without issue” to “outright postponement”. We will need to double-check how things are looking closer to first pitch.

  4:30 ET Update: The forecast for this game looks worse than when I initially wrote up this weather section. That very severe band of storms no longer seems like it will miss north of the ballpark. They should now arrive in Cincy around first pitch and could be slow moving out of the area. PPD risk has increased dramatically here.

• NYM at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Just a whole mess of scattered showers and storms. The actual storm coverage isn’t high but if one makes its way over the ballpark, it could spark a delay. PPD seems unlikely, barring any changes to the forecast. Low-80s temps with light winds IN from right.

• BAL at TB (7:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): Just another run-of-the-mill summertime Tampa forecast. Storms will be around but there’s a good chance they stay away from the ballpark and this game plays without issues. Still can’t rule out a delay of some sort, but nothing beyond that. Temps in the upper-80s with light winds OUT to right/center.

• STL at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): A major storm system will be in Chicago by the time you’re reading this and will stick around well into the evening. Unless they’re okay with a very late start (potentially a 2-3 hour delay) then this is looking like a PPD. We can’t say for certain that this game won’t play, but it’s dicey, to say the least.

• MIL at CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Same general outlook as the other Chicago game above. While both of these games could feasibly end up playing (especially if the forecast improves), for the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll be excluding players from both Chicago games due to the PPD risk.

• HOU at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Scorching hot temps in Sacramento today, which will touch triple-digits in the afternoon. By gametime, it’ll still be in the mid-90s with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. Strong hitting conditions.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | at ATH

Valdez continues to impress on the mound and, spanning his last seven starts (49.0 IP), he has procured a stellar 2.02 ERA, 2.23 xFIP, .192 opp AVG, 0.94 WHIP, 31.4% kRate, and 6.9% BB%. The conditions at Sutter Health Park tonight are excellent for hitters (mid-90s temps w/ 10 mph winds out to left), but Valdez does such a great job at keeping the ball on the ground that those hitter-friendly weather conditions may not matter much (for the A’s, at least). Among qualified pitchers, Valdez is 3rd in MLB with a 58.1% GroundBall%, and that has ticked up to 64.0% GB% in that aforementioned “last seven starts” sample size. On the season, Valdez has only allowed six HRs across 90.0 IP, resulting in a low 0.60 HR/9 Rate (0.40 HR/9 Rate L7Starts).

The A’s have plenty of young talent throughout their lineup but they have put up a subpar 85 wRC+ versus LHPs over the last month (ranks 20th) along with a 25.9% kRate (8th highest) and 47.5% GroundBall% (3rd highest), which plays directly into Valdez’s strength as a groundball pitcher. With rainy weather threatening several of the quality starters on this slate, Valdez is going to be even more appealing than he already is, and we should expect him to continue rolling tonight.

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.1k | at TEX

Between May 8th and June 1st (5 GS, 34.1 IP), Kris Bubic was among the best starting pitchers in baseball as he recorded a minuscule 0.79 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, .172 opp AVG, 0.84 WHIP, and 31.2% kRate. Somewhat predictably, he was due for a dud and that happened in his last outing which came against the Yankees when Bubic allowed 10 baserunners (6 H, 4 BB) and 5 ER across 4.1 IP. While the Yankees bats have been dormant the last few games, that wasn’t the first time they’ve stifled a pitcher riding a hot streak this season. But we’ll count on a bounce-back from Bubic tonight.

The Rangers bats got hot for a few games recently, but they seem to be back on the struggle bus and have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games. They have done little damage against lefty pitching in recent weeks and, versus LHPs L30Days, they’re hitting just .199 with a .566 OPS, .249 wOBA, 57 wRC+, and 27.5% kRate. Against Bubic’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, sweeper, changeup), the Rangers have hit for a .209 AVG and .259 wOBA with a 26.2% kRate on the season. Bubic has also shown positive road splits this season so several factors are pointing toward him finding the same success tonight that he had for the majority of May.

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAA

Reminder: Monitor weather here. PPD risk isn’t very high, but an in-game delay could be bad news for pitchers.

We’ll wrap up this pitching section with another lefty; this time out of the value tier. Ryan Yarbrough, who began the year as a reliever, had put together a few promising starts which included an excellent road outing against the Dodgers. However, he got rocked by the Red Sox back on June 7th before having a lackluster DFS outing against the same Red Sox team the following week (though, he only gave up one run across 4.2 IP). Still, he has shown some good results since entering the Yankees’ rotation and has some decent numbers on the season -- 3.96 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, and 12.1% SwStr%.

The Angels head into tonight’s game with a poor 63 wRC+ versus LHPs L2Weeks and they’ve punched out at a 30.3% kRate clip in that same span as well. Yarbrough has thrown four different pitches at least 20% of the time -- cutter (24.5%), sinker (22.9%), changeup (20.5%0, and sweeper (20%). Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Angels are dead last in batting average (.171), wOBA (.233), and kRate (30.6%). And, though they’re on the verge of dropping a third straight game to the Angels, and are losers in five straight, the Yankees (-225 ML) are once again the heaviest favorites on the slate, so Yarbrough has a good shot at snagging the win bonus if he covers five-plus innings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. NYM

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN (Monitor weather!)

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BAL (Monitor weather!)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Is today the day the Yankees bats get back on track? Time will tell, but it seems to be a good spot. They have been shutout in three consecutive games and have plated just five combined runs over their last six. That said, the Yankees do still check in as the #2 home offense in baseball, averaging 5.48 runs/gm, and Yankee Stadium has rated out as the #5 home run ballpark.

They will also draw a promising matchup with RHP Jack Kochanowicz, who heads into this game with a 7.36 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, .329 opp AVG, .411 opp wOBA, and 2.50 HR/9 Rate over his last five starts (22.0 IP). Kochanowicz has allowed an average exit velocity of 94.0 mph L30Days (bottom 5th percentile). He is also a heavy sinker ball pitcher, having thrown the sinker on 47.8% of his pitches this season. Against RHP sinkers, the Yankees own a .323 AVG, .377 wOBA, .399 xwOBA, 48.9% HardHit%, and 14.0% kRate. While the Angels’ bullpen has been pitching better of late, they have ranked as a bottom-five bullpen on the season with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. They have also allowed an MLB-high 43 home runs.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Trent Grisham

Cincinnati Reds vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

Assuming weather cooperates, I’ll be looking to go back to a hot Reds offense this evening. Reds vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .276 AVG (1st), .853 OPS (2nd), .371 wOBA (2nd), .207 ISO (5th), 132 wRC+ (2nd), and 17.0% HR/FB Rate (4th). Great American Ballpark currently ranks 15th in Park Factor, but as summer temps continue to heat up, this park is going to become more of a launch pad, as we have seen in previous seasons. GABP is currently the #4 home run ballpark but the overall run production has simply been down below expectations to start the season.

Bailey Ober is a decent pitcher but he heads into tonight’s start in some poor form. Since May 14th (6 GS, 30.0 IP), Ober has recorded a 5.70 ERA, 5.84 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, .361 opp wOBA, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, and 15.2% kRate. He has also allowed a 58.6% Flyball% in that span and, as noted above, the Reds have been among the best teams at converting flyballs into home runs lately. The Twins bullpen has also had its fair share of issues lately and has recorded a 6.60 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .297 opp AVG L2Weeks.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley

Bargain Bat: Spencer Steer

Weather Update: The forecast in Cincy seems to be taking a turn for the worse. Some very severe storms are now on track to hit the area around gametime, and it may be a while before they clear. So, be cautious with this stack and any players from this game.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

7-of-9 hitters in the projected Padres lineup have a < 9% pOwn%. When these two teams meet, it’s often an entertaining game environment, and ample offense is expected in this matchup tonight given its 9.5 over/under. The Padres’ offense has been pretty hit-or-miss of late, but they have popped off for a few productive games in recent weeks and own a quality 116 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks.

This will also be Emmet Sheehan’s first MLB start since the 2023 season following Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in May of 2024. Sheehan has been doing some rehab work in the minor leagues and, across 11.1 IP in MiLB, he put up a 3.97 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and a phenomenal 44.7% kRate next to a low 2.1% BB%. The strikeout rate is clearly off the charts, but the Padres tend to be a tough team to strike out, and, needless to say, it’s a significant jump going from facing minor league hitters to MLB hitters. Sheehan reached a pitch count of 63 pitches (3.1 IP) in his most recent rehab start, so he will certainly have some amount of pitch restrictions tonight. This Padres stack could really get going if they can get into the Dodgers bullpen early. The LAD pen is very taxed at the moment, having thrown 270 pitches over the last three days, and they combined for 171 pitches from six different relievers in last night’s game alone. The Dodgers bullpen has also ranked bottom-10 L2Weeks so, not only are they taxed, but they haven’t been very good either, and I believe a few of these Padres bats can take advantage of the situation.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets

Bargain Bat: Luis Arraez/Trenton Brooks

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), SD

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Trent Grisham, NYY vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

3B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

C Tyler Heineman, TOR vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Jake Fraley, CIN vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

2B/OF Willi Castro, MIN vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

1B Trenton Brooks, SD vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations discussed in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!