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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A dozen games hit the docket for this busy Tuesday main slate! Pitching is a bit shabby, especially for a slate of this size. On the other hand, a large number of offenses appear to be in strong positions, which is reflected in many of these high game totals. Eight games on this slate have at least a 9.0 run over/under. Weather is also going to be a bit pesky in several spots so be sure to stay on top of that as well once we get closer to the first pitches. There is much to get into on this monster slate, so let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/17 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): They may see a few sprinkles here but the worst of the rain should hold off until after the game.

• MIN at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Storms clear, or in the process of clearing, around first pitch. Might see a late start here but once they get going, there should be no further issues.

• NYM at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): A batch of storms is currently heading toward the ballpark but are expected to dissipate as they move closer to the Atlanta area. A delay of some sort is still a decent possibility but a PPD doesn’t seem all too likely.

• BAL at TB (7:35 ET, 9.5 O/U): A few scattered showers in the general area. If one makes it over the ballpark, it could spark a delay, but that seems to be the worst-case scenario. Warm temps in the mid-80s with light winds OUT to center.

• STL at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): High chance of storms moving into Chicago at some point during this game and there is quite a bit of rain behind those initial storms, so any delay could either be a very long one, or result in a PPD/suspended game.

• MIL at CHC (8:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Same situation as the other Chicago game above. Double-check the forecast closer to first pitch before locking in any players from these two games.

• HOU at ATH (10:05 ET, 11.0 O/U): Temps around 90 degrees to start with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CLE

Well, the Robbie Ray Coors Field experience didn’t work out last week but that doesn’t negate how well he had been pitching in the six weeks prior. Dating back to April 26th (9 GS, 57.0 IP), including the recent Coors Field game, which truthfully wasn’t even horrible by any means (2 ER allowed over 4.0 IP), Robbie Ray has recorded a 1.89 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, .188 opp AVG, 0.93 WHIP, 30.5% kRate, and 6.8% BB%. Ray will also be back at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, where he has averaged +18.5% more FPPG this season.

We have been attacking the Guardians with lefty pitching for a hot minute now. They’ve easily been a bottom-10 offense versus LHPs over the last month: .604 OPS (ranks 25th), .271 wOBA (24th), .087 ISO (30th), 73 wRC+ (24th), and 26.2% kRate (8th highest). There should be a little extra buzz in the stadium today as well with Rafael Devers set to make his Giants debut. Regardless of that factor, it’s just a solid bounce-back spot for Robbie Ray. With so many offenses in strong spots today, there shouldn’t be an issue finding some value bats that will allow you to spend up on Ray’s five-figure DFS salaries.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BOS

Woo has had a few less-than-stellar outings recently but I like this spot for him to regain some form and put up a quality DFS result. The season-long numbers for Woo have been fairly strong -- 3.39 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 22.1% kRate, and 3.7% BB%. The plate command has been excellent, evidenced by that low walk rate, and Woo ranks 9th among all MLB starters (min. 60 IP) with a 111 Location+ rating. As you might expect, his splits have been strong at home at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. And, on a day where we’re seeing so many high over/unders, this game is being pinned with a slate-low 7.0 over/under with the Mariners being heavy -173 ML favorites.

In the first game of the post-Rafael Devers era, the Red Sox mustered only two runs on four hits in last night’s series opener in Seattle. They own an MLB-high 26.8% kRate versus RHPs L2Weeks and there are four hitters in the projected Red Sox lineup with at least a 29.2% kRate versus RHPs this season. The Red Sox do have several highly regarded prospects getting regular at-bats with the big league club, but those guys are still very inexperienced at this level, which is something Bryan Woo can take advantage of this evening.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAA

Since May 4th (8 GS, 39.0 IP), Will Warren has pitched to a 4.38 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, .233 opp AVG, and 31.0% kRate. A blow-up outing on the road against the Dodgers on May 31st is largely responsible for inflating Warren’s ERA in that stretch, but the 3.03 xFIP is a very strong number and more indicative of where his ERA *should* be. The strikeout rate has been excellent, and Warren’s 28.6% K-rate on the season leads all pitchers on this slate. Warren has also been much more reliable at home where he has averaged +75.5% more FPPG this season. When compared to his road stats, Warren’s home ERA is nearly two runs lower, and his opponent's batting average is over 70 percentage points lower (.191 vs. .265). Though the Yankees’ offense is in a funk right now, they are still the heaviest favorites on the slate with -248 ML odds.

The Angels head in with a subpar .680 OPS, 91 wRC+, and 23.8% kRate versus RHPs L2Weeks. The Angels also have the 2nd highest kRate (24.0%) against Warren’s primary pitch mix which features a four-seamer, sweeper, and sinker. On a slate where there is a slew of landmines in the pitching department, Warren sets up as one of the more appealing options… especially at these reasonable price points.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | vs. NYM (Monitor weather!)

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | at ATL (Monitor weather!)

Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k | at CWS (Monitor weather!)

Ben Brown (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIL (Monitor weather!)

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

Note: I had this stack spotlighted yesterday when we were working under the assumption that LHP JP Sears would be the A’s starter. It ended up being RHP Mitch Spence. Sears is now the CONFIRMED starter today, so I’m just going to update what I had written for the Astros’ stack spotlight yesterday.

Houston has seen, by far, the fewest plate appearances against LHPs in MLB over the last month, with just 87. So, while it is a smaller sample size, it’s worth noting how well they have hit lefties when given the opportunity in recent weeks. In that span (L30Days vs. LHPs), the Astros own a .316 AVG (1st), 1.012 OPS (1st), .433 wOBA (1st), .316 ISO (1st), 188 wRC+ (1st), and 14.9% kRate (lowest in MLB).

At home this season, JP Sears is rocking an ugly 6.00 ERA and an awful 3.38 HR/9 rate. He has also displayed some very poor statcast data over the last month, ranking bottom 5th percentile in average exit velocity (95.2 mph), barreled balls allowed (10), and average batted-ball distance (216.1 feet). Sears will be backed up by a bottom-five Athletics bullpen, and regardless of who you go with in this Astros lineup, it’s going to make for an affordable stack. Finally, conditions will once again be very favorable for hitters (~90 degrees to start with 5-10 mph winds blowing out to left) at Sutter Health Park tonight, which has ranked as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz/Cam Smith

Cincinnati Reds vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

The Reds have been living up to their namesake, and have been red-hot versus righty-pitching lately. Versus RHPs L2Weeks (323 PAs), they’re boasting a .284 AVG (1st in MLB), .882 OPS (1st), .380 wOBA (1st), .230 ISO (2nd), and 139 wRC+ (2nd). They have also been more reluctant to strike out in that stretch, with a 20.7% kRate (10th lowest), which is something this Reds lineup has struggled with at times.

David Festa is a decent arm with quality strike-out stuff (25.8% KRate/13.3% SwStr%), but he has some glaring issues in other areas. He has allowed a high 11.5% Barrel%, 42.6% HardHit%, and a 94.0 mph average exit velocity in his two most recent starts (bottom 5th percentile). The Twins’ bullpen has also posted some ugly results L2Weeks: 6.44 ERA (2nd worst), 1.62 WHIP (highest in MLB), and .299 opp AVG (2nd worst). So, all-in-all, it’s a nice spot for the Reds’ offense to keep things rolling.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, TJ Friedl

Bargain Bat: Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the confirmed Blue Jays lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%, and eight hitters are under 5% pOwn%. Toronto returns home following a nine-game road trip. They have been a sneaky great offense at home, where they’re averaging 5.14 runs/gm -- that makes them the #4 home offense in MLB behind only the Dodgers, Yankees, and D-Backs. Against RHPs at home over the last month (297 PAs), they own a .283 AVG, .843 OPS, .365 wOBA, .208 ISO, 140 wRC+, and 14.5% kRate.

Toronto will match up with RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who is in the midst of one of the roughest stretches of his career. Across his last six starts, Pfaadt has come away with a 9.89 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, .337 opp AVG, .440 opp wOBA, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. Over the last month, he has allowed a whopping 16 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile) and 96.2 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile). The D-Backs also continue to have problems with their bullpen, which has been a bottom-five group of relievers this season.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk

Bargain Bat: Addison Barger

Unfortunately, I’m running short on time today so I have to clip the “one-off” & “bargain bat” sections. I’ll get those hitter lists back up tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Jose Altuve MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

George Springer MORE than 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!