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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got ourselves a nice seven-game Monday main slate to get things rolling this week! There have been a couple of notable developments in the league over the last 24 hours. The first major trade of the season went down yesterday with the Red Sox sending star 3B Rafael Devers to the Giants in exchange for Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, and a couple of prospects. News also broke last night that Shohei Ohtani will make his return to the mound as a pitcher for the first time since August 23, 2023. However, he will be eased back into his renewed pitching role and is considered more of an “opener” for tonight’s game against the Padres. So, it’s getting a little spicy around the league! Things will continue to heat up as we’re now about a month out from the All-Star Break and about 6 1/2 weeks from the 2025 trade deadline! Anyhow, let’s dive into this slate, shall we? Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/16 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): There may be some sparsely scattered showers around the general D.C. area but nothing too concerning. Low-end chance of a delay.

• LAA at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): They might see a few sprinkles here this evening but, again, not a major concern. Any precipitation that does fall is doubtful to lead to any sort of delay. Temps in the mid-60s with light winds IN from center.

• BAL at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms in the area but there’s a decent chance they’ll avoid the ballpark. We can’t fully rule out some sort of delay, but a PPD is highly unlikely. Temps in the mid-to-upper 80s with light ~5 mph winds OUT to right/center.

• HOU at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Mid-80s to start with 10 mph winds OUT to left. It’s a nice hitting environment once again at this minor league ballpark, and that is reflected in the 10.5 over/under.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k | vs. BOS

Gilbert was off to a great start to his 2025 season before a flexor strain landed him on the IL in late April. Before the injury, Gilbert had recorded a sharp 2.37 ERA, 1.72 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, a monster 37.6% kRate/18.2% SwStr% across 30.1 IP. He was easily a top-five starter over the first month of the season so we’ll see if he can pick up where he left off. Gilbert made three rehab starts in Triple-A and most recently reached 72 pitches across five scoreless innings last Tuesday. So, he’ll likely have some minor restrictions, but could still handle a mostly full workload (perhaps ~85 pitches).

The Red Sox, of course, just traded away arguably their best hitter, Rafael Devers, yesterday and they received no immediate offensive help from the Giants, so it’ll be interesting to see how this lineup performs moving forward. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Red Sox were pretty middle-of-the-road in every major hitting metric, and their 26.1% kRate in that span has been the highest in MLB. On the season, the Red Sox have posted the 5th highest kRate (25.4%) versus Gilbert’s top three most utilized pitches (four-seamer, slider, split-finger). As long as the injury hasn’t built up too much rust for Gilbert, he should be able to rack up plenty of Ks in this matchup that is being hosted at the very pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k | vs. LAA

Since April 27th (8 GS, 45.1 IP), Schmidt has pitched to a rock-solid 2.78 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, .208 opp AVG, 1.15 WHIP, and 26.5% kRate. He has recorded a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in six of those previous eight games, and has generally just been a very reliable arm in this Yankees rotation. The Yankees (-194 ML) also step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate.

The Angels do have an offense that is capable of doing some damage against most pitchers, and they’ve posted an above-average 107 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month. However, they’ve also put up the second-highest kRate (24.7%) in that span. And they do not match up well against the cutter, which Schmidt has thrown on nearly half of his pitches. Against RHP cutters this season, the Angels have a .197 AVG (2nd lowest), .279 wOBA (6th lowest), and 25.3% Whiff% (5th highest). So, I like Schmidt’s chances of getting ahead in a lot of counts with his cutter before switching to his primary putaway pitches (knuckle curve & sweeper) to rack up some strikeouts. The Angels are also a very RHB-heavy team and may only have a couple of lefty bats to roll out against Schmidt. That’s another positive in the direction of Schmidt, as he has very traditional splits and has been much more effective against RHBs.

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BAL

Pepiot heads into this evening’s game in some fine form. Across his last four starts (25.1 IP), Pepiot has procured a 1.78 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, .153 opp AVG, 0.75 WHIP, 28.6% kRate, and 6.6% BB%.

The matchup is a bit tricky as the O’s bats have come alive in recent weeks. They rank 4th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks, so things could get dicey here for Pepiot. That being said, Pepiot does own some decent BvP history against this roster and, across 42 PAs versus the Orioles, he has held them to a .237 AVG while recording a sharp 28.6% kRate. The Orioles also have the 8th highest kRate (23.4%) versus Pepiot’s primary pitch mix which features a four-seamer, changeup, and slider. The strikeouts should be there for Pepiot so it’ll just come down to how clear he can keep the bases and how much he can limit the run damage done by a surging O’s lineup.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | at LAD

Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8k | vs. COL

*Ben Casparius (RHP), LAD | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SD

*Ohtani is slated to pitch the first couple of innings tonight, but Casparius should come in as the bulk reliever. He got up to 54 pitches five days ago, so he could end up covering a decent chunk of innings tonight. He’s a major gamble for DFS purposes, but could pick up a ‘cheap’ win and a few Ks at a low price tag. Casparius is not really in play on FanDuel but might work out as a GPP SP2 flier on DraftKings if you’re feeling frisky.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

At the time of this writing, the A’s have not officially announced a starter for tonight’s game, but it’s looking like either LHP JP Sears or RHP Mitch Spence. For now, we’ll assume it’s Sears taking the mound. The Astros would be in a decent position regardless, but I’d like this stack’s upside more with a lefty (Sears) in as the A’s starter. Houston has seen, by far, the fewest plate appearances against LHPs over the last month, with just 90. So, while it is a smaller sample size, it’s worth noting how well they have hit lefties when given the opportunity in recent weeks. In that span (L30Days vs. LHPs), the Astros own a .305 AVG (1st), .976 OPS (1st), .419 wOBA (1st), .305 ISO (1st), 177 wRC+ (1st), and 14.4% kRate (lowest in MLB). Regardless of who you stack up in this Astros lineup, it’s going to be an affordable stack. And, whoever starts for the A’s tonight will be backed up by a bottom-five Athletics bullpen. Finally, conditions will once again be very favorable for hitters (mid-80s temps w/ 10 mph blowing out to left) at Sutter Health Park tonight, which has ranked as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Cam Smith

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

The Rays have been a top-10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks and own a quality 120 wRC+ in that span. Over a larger sample size, they’re also 6th in MLB with a 118 wRC+ versus RHPs when playing at home and George Steinbrenner Field has ranked as the No. 6 home run ballpark in MLB. Weather conditions in Tampa Bay this evening (mid/upper 80s with light winds out to right/center) are certainly primed for home runs tonight. Zach Eflin has put up some decent numbers this season and he is currently riding a three-game quality start streak. However, he doesn’t strike out many batters (16.9% kRate) and he has given up 10 HRs across his 53.0 IP, resulting in a high 1.70 HR/9 Rate. If the Rays can knock Eflin off the mound early, they’ll get a solid chunk of innings against an Orioles bullpen that has ranked bottom-10 in most pitching metrics this season… though, they have been pitching better of late. This is also looking like a fairly low-owned stack as only one hitter (Brandon Lowe) in the projected Rays lineup has above a 6% pOwn%.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz

Bargain Bat: Taylor Walls

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

Eight of nine hitters in the confirmed Marlins lineup have a < 8% pOwn%. Mick Abel, who is one of the Phillies’ top pitching prospects, had an outstanding MLB debut against the Pirates back on May 18th, but has labored in his two big league starts since versus the Blue Jays and Cubs. He could still bounce back with a nice outing tonight because, as a whole, this Marlins’ offense just isn’t that good. That said, a few of these Miami bats have been solidly serviceable for DFS purposes. The Phillies’ bullpen also owns an MLB-worst 5.13 xFIP L2Weeks, so if Miami can get Abel off the mound early, they could see some favorable matchups versus some Philly relievers.

Favorite MIA Bats: Otto Lopez, Jesus Sanchez, Xavier Edwards

Bargain Bat: Agustin Ramirez/Dane Myers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Shohei Ohtani/Ben Casparius (RHPs), LAD

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

2B/SS Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

1B/3B Alec Bohm, PHI vs. Sandy Alcanatara (RHP), MIA

OF Alex Call, WAS vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

3B Ryan McMahon, COL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Max Kepler, PHI vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

1B/3B Otto Kemp, PHI vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations discussed in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!