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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a spooky Friday the 13th frenzy with a hefty 12-game main slate on the board! Pitching feels a bit weak for a slate of this size, but that opens the door for more potential offensive breakouts, even though only two games own an over/under above 8.5 runs. Rainy weather may impact one or two games, but as of now, I doubt we’re looking at any postponements. There is much to get into so let’s jump to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/13 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAA at BAL (7:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Scattered storms in the general area with coverage increasing later in the evening. I’d say a delay of some sort is a real possibility but, unless the forecast gets worse, a PPD seems unlikely. Check up on the radar here closer to first pitch. Temps in the mid-80s with 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

• COL at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms could move over the ballpark in Atlanta as well. It’s another spot where the delay risk is going to be fairly high but a PPD is not currently expected. In the event of an in-game delay, pitchers will carry more risk than the bats (the same goes for the LAA/BAL game).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

Outside of a couple of hiccups against the Yankees and D-Backs, two top-tier offenses, the 2025 season has been going exceptionally well for Yamamoto. He heads into start No. 14 on the season with a 2.20 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 29.6% kRate. The 57.6% GroundBall% that he has forced is also the fourth highest among qualified MLB starters.

The Giants head to L.A. following a series in Colorado, so perhaps the “Coors Field hangover” rears its ugly head. This offense isn’t particularly dangerous to begin with and they’re currently down one of their best power bats in Matt Chapman (hand/10-day IL). The Giants also do not match up well against Yamamoto’s primary pitch mix, which features the four-seamer, split finger, and curveball as his three most utilized pitches. Versus that pitch mix, the Giants are 27th in MLB with a .294 wOBA and they’ve generated the 3rd lowest HardHit%. The Giants’ strikeout rate has also jumped to 24.0% versus RHPs on the road (compared to 20.3% at home). The Dodgers (-192 ML) are hefty favorites in this one and we should get six or seven strong innings out of Yamamoto in this spot.

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. COL

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Well, well, well. Bryce Elder is good again? At the very least we should have some cautious optimism for him today as he draws the “road Rockies” matchup. He’s also coming off of his best single-game performance in his career last week versus the Giants where he threw eight one-run innings, allowing only three hits, and no walks, and he struck out 12… yes, 12 batters. Elder has also been solid beyond that last outing. Dating back to April 28th (6 GS, 36.1 IP), which happened to be a Coors Field start against the Rockies, Elder has procured a 3.22 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 26.2% kRate, and 5.7% BB%. Elder, who is very much a sinker ball pitcher, altered his grip on his sinker around that time (April 28th) and the results have been positive, to say the least.

Against RHPs away from Coors Field this season, the Rockies have mustered just a .196 AVG, .570 OPS, .253 wOBA, 57 wRC+, and 27.1% kRate. Admittedly, the Rockies’ offense has been playing better of late but it certainly helped to have a six-game home stand at their very hitter-friendly ballpark. Vegas is pinning Colorado with a slate-low 3.2 implied run total and the Braves (-337 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the slate. I find it difficult to put too much trust in Elder, even with the elite matchup and promising recent form. But he’s a sensible option at these price tags, especially on a slate that doesn’t possess a ton of standout pitching options.

Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. MIN

If you’re looking to roll the dice on a cheap arm, Colton Gordon makes a good bit of sense today. He put forth a nice performance in his last outing against the Guardians (5.0 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 5 K) and gets a start at home this evening. Gordon’s 5.11 ERA across his five big league starts (24.2 IP) may not be pretty, but that is backed up by a much better 3.29 xFIP, which is more indicative of where his ERA *should* be. Gordon has also supplied an above-average 23.9% kRate while showing excellent command of the plate (110 Location+ rating). He has walked only three batters thus far, resulting in a minuscule 2.8% BB%.

The Twins have been a fairly average offense versus LHPs lately. Against LHPs over the last month (286 PAs), they have posted a .230 AVG (19th), .665 OPS (16th), .298 wOBA (14th), .119 ISO (23rd), 90 wRC+ (15th), and 26.6% kRate (7th highest). The power (ISO) hasn’t been there for the Twins against southpaws and, as far as Gordon’s DFS upside goes, we have to like that high strikeout rate as well. The Astros have been pretty cautious with their inexperienced pitcher and have not allowed Gordon to throw more than 85 pitches in a game, which happened to be in his MLB debut back on May 14th. I would like to see that pitch count tick up closer to around 90 pitches but, either way, I believe Gordon has a decent shot at netting around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP tonight. However, as these cheap SP plays often are, Gordon is best suited as an SP2 candidate over on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.9k | vs. NYY

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CLE

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ATH

Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | at HOU

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

If there is one game that could turn into a barn burner on this slate, it’s looking like it may be this game, given its lackluster pitching and slate-high 10.5 over/under. Camden Yards has also ranked as the 3rd most hitter-friendly ballpark (and #1 home run park) this season, behind only Coors Field and the A’s minor league ballpark. The O’s lead all teams today with a 5.9 implied run total. While they’ve been a rather disappointing offense this season, they have been righting the ship of late and head into this game ranking 9th in MLB with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks.

Jack Kochanowicz had a couple of decent outings in early May, but he seems to be regressing back to his baseline talent level with poor performances against the Mariners and Guardians in his last two starts. He also owns a 6+ ERA on the road this season and has allowed a scorching 95.6 mph average exit velo L30Days (bottom 5th percentile). The Angels’ bullpen also owns the 4th worst xFIP L2Weeks and has given up an MLB-worst 41 HRs this season.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Atlanta Braves vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

I have the same level of trepidation when it comes to trusting this Braves offense as I did with Bryce Elder in the pitching section. But this Colorado pitching staff has helped plenty of sputtering offenses throughout the season and the Braves have shown some signs of life with a couple of solid hitting performances in their recent series versus the Brewers. German Marquez brings a 7.00 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, and 13.9% kRate into his 14th start of the season. And, surprisingly, most of his numbers have been notably worse on the road away from Coors Field. Across 33.2 IP on the road this season, Marquez has put up an 8.82 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP, .353 opp AVG, and .415 opp wOBA. The Braves have the 10th highest HardHit% at 48.8% against Marquez’s top three pitches (four-seamer, knuckle curve, sinker), so we should expect some XBHs from this Atlanta lineup this evening. As usual, getting some innings against a poor Rockies’ bullpen is always a plus when stacking against Colorado.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

Every hitter in the confirmed Mets lineup has a ≤ 5% pOwn%. The Mets have been smashing right-handed pitching and lead the MLB with a .923 OPS, .394 wOBA, .292 ISO, and 160 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. They’ve also posted a low 17.6% kRate (4th lowest) in that span.

Taj Bradley is a pretty solid pitcher but he just got ambushed for seven runs across four innings by the Marlins in his last start. He has also shown some slightly worse splits on the road where he owns a lackluster 4.49 xFIP this season. The Rays’ bullpen has also allowed the 4th highest batting average (.276) over the last two weeks.

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo

Bargain Bat: Jeff McNeil

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), SD

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

1B Pete Alonso, NYM vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

1B/3B Josh Smith, TEX vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Evan Carter, TEX vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), CWS

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

1B Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

OF Mike Tauchman, CWS vs. Rangers Bullpen

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Willi Castro, MIN vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

C Kyle Teel, CWS vs. Rangers Bullpen

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations discussed in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!