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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time for another mini-Thursday slate! With the inclusion of the DET/BAL game, the action on FanDuel will begin at 6:35 ET and feature five games. DraftKings is nixing that game, reducing their main slate down to just four games. As a result, the DK slate will begin over an hour later [than the FD slate] at 7:40 ET. There may not be a ton of action going on this evening, but any day with baseball is a good day! We’ll keep today’s newsletter fairly short and swee,t so let’s jump right into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET at BAL (6:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps around 85-90 degrees for the entire game.

• NYY at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-70s with 10 mph winds IN from right.

• PIT at CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the 60s with 10 mph winds IN from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CWS

Valdez has been on a roll with a masterful 1.84 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, .173 opp AVG, 0.86 WHIP, and 28.7% kRate across his previous six starts (44.0 IP). As usual, Valdez has been one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball, and his 58.9% GB% ranks 3rd among qualified MLB starters -- he is in the 95th percentile with an average batted ball distance of 115.9 feet L30Days.

Picking on the White Sox with pitching isn’t a revolutionary strategy, but they haven’t been totally awful against LHPs. Over the last month versus LHPs, their numbers have mostly been more middle-of-the-pack, rather than bottom of the barrel: .233 AVG (17th), .694 OPS (13th), .300 wOBA (13th), .187 ISO (4th), 91 wRC+ (15th), and 26.2% kRate (8th). Their isolated power (aka ISO) has been shockingly good, but they’re still not hitting for average and their strikeout rate has been much higher versus LHPs than RHPs. I wouldn’t slot Valdez into lineups fully expecting a ceiling game, but he should put up another quality DFS result and the Astros (-270 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. STL

We get a highly anticipated MLB debut with Jacob Misiorowski toeing the rubber on a big league mound this evening. Misiorowski, who just turned 23 on April 3rd, is the Brewers’ top pitching prospect and the No. 27 overall prospect in MLB, according to FanGraphs. At 6’7”, he is a towering righty who possesses an exploding fastball that consistently hits 98+ mph and has touched as high as 103 mph. Misiorowski also possesses two plus breaking pitches with a curveball that has generated a 40+% Whiff% and a power slider that sits in the low-90s. Command has been his main drawback but if he learns to limit walks moving forward, he’ll have an extremely bright MLB future. Across 63.1 IP in Triple-A Nashville this year, Misiorowski has boasted a 2.13 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, .172 opp AVG, 1.09 WHIP, 0.57 HR/9 Rate, 31.6% kRate, and 12.3% BB%. As mentioned, the only real complaint to have with those numbers is the high walk rate.

Misiorowski lands in a decent spot to make his MLB debut. He’ll be in front of the Brewers faithful at American Family Field, which has ranked as the #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season, based on Park Factor. The Cardinals are far from a bad offense, and they don’t strike out a ton (19.1% kRate vs. RHPs, 4th lowest), but they’ve ranked 22nd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks, as well as 24th in ISO. They’ve also posted a low 6.0% Walk Rate against RHPs in that same span, which bodes well given Misiorowski’s aforementioned struggles with the free passes. We always have to hold some reservations about any kid making their MLB debut, no matter how highly touted they may be. But, on a small slate like this one, he’s certainly worth a roll of the dice given the sort of upside he has for his future.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k | at MIL

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. PIT

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | at KC

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: N/A, FD: $11.2k | at BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees (Boost to LHBs) vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

It’s rarely a bad idea to target some Yankees bats so no surprise they they get a nod here on a small slate. They continue to mash both lefties and righties and, versus RHPs L2Weeks, they rank 3rd or better in OPS (.878), wOBA (.380), ISO (.241), and wRC+ (148). They’re also 2nd in that span with a 22.7% HR/FB Rate, which is bad news for a guy like Seth Lugo, who owns a slate-high 16.4% HR/FB Rate. Lugo isn’t a bad starter by any means but, when he faced this Yankees lineup back on April 14th, he gave up four homers to Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Austin Wells. You shouldn’t knock a red-hot RHB like Aaron Judge out of stack consideration, but Yankees LHBs should get some preferred treatment here when stacking, due to Lugo’s splits:

Lugo vs. LHBs: .266 AVG, .352 wOBA, .223 ISO, 2.21 HR/9 Rate, 17.0% kRate

Lugo vs. RHBs: .202 AVG, .263 wOBA, .141 ISO, 0.95 HR/9 Rate, 22.4% kRate

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells

Houston Astros vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

The Astros have been much better at home this season, where they’ve averaged nearly a run more per game compared to on the road -- 4.53 runs/gm at home, 3.55 runs/gm away. Against RHPs at home L30Days, they’ve put up some solid offensive numbers: .291 AVG, .338 wOBA, and 121 wRC+.

Davis Martin has had several nice outings this season and brings a respectable 3.62 ERA into his 13th start. However, his 5.55 xERA tells us that he has been very fortunate to maintain that mid-3 ERA. He doesn’t possess much swing-and-miss (15.6% kRate, 8.8% SwStr%), and the nine barreled balls he has allowed L30Days places him in the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers, and he has allowed a lofty 47.1% HardHit% on the season. Martin will also be backed up by a middling White Sox bullpen.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes

Bargain Bat: Christian Walker

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Detroit Tigers vs. Keegan Akin (LHP)/Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson

Bargain Bat: Zach McKinstry

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Tough to find a super low-owned stack on a slate of this size but 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Pirates lineup have a ≤ 11% pOwn%. The Pirates’ offense has been serviceable against RHPs lately, ranking 13th in OPS (.751) and wOBA (.331), and 14th in wRC+ (109) over the last two weeks.

Taillon has been pitching very well lately, boasting a 2.23 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over his L5Starts. At least on DraftKings, Taillon looks as if he’ll command high ownership with a 43% pOwn%, so there could be some decent leverage to be had by stacking a few Pirates bats. Taillon has allowed quite a bit of power to both sides of the plate this season, with a .246 ISO and 2.23 HR/9 Rate to RHBs, .206 ISO and 1.64 HR/9 Rate to LHBs. I wouldn’t go crazy here -- if Taillon gets into early trouble, then a Cubs’ bullpen that has been pitching lights out could come in to save the day. But a small two or three-man Pirates stack could work out nicely in GPPs and, outside of Oneil Cruz, every other bat in this lineup is very affordable, which could allow you to splurge on high-end pitching or several big hitters.

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds

Bargain Bat: Nick Gonzales

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Keegan Akin (LHP)/Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

2B Nick Gonzales, PIT vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Jac Caglianone, KC vs. Will Warren (RHP), CWS

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

3B Jonathan India, KC vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

 FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Parker Meadows, DET vs. Keegan Akin (LHP)/Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

SS/3B/2B/OF Zach McKinstry, DET vs. Keegan Akin (LHP)/Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Adley Rutschman, BAL vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations discussed in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!