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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We have another split slate Wednesday on deck and, depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll either be looking at a seven-game (FanDuel) or six-game (DraftKings) main slate. FanDuel is including the DET/BAL game, which will begin at 6:35 ET -- the DraftKings slate will not begin until 7:10 ET. It’s not the sexiest of slates, but we will have a decent selection of pitchers and hitters/stacks to choose from. No weather issues either! We’ll jump right into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET at BAL (6:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): Warm temps in the 80s.

• TB at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Light winds OUT to center/left.

• WAS at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to right.

• NYY at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Nearly 90 degrees to start and mid-80s throughout the evening.

• SF at COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): A few scattered showers will be around the area. Nothing too concerning.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11k | at COL

It’s always a dice roll when rostering a Coors Field pitcher, but we have plenty of reason to have confidence in Robbie Ray today. Going back to April 26th (8 GS, 53.0 IP), Ray has dominated to the tune of a 1.70 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, .175 opp AVG, 0.85 WHIP, 31.2% kRate, and 6.5% BB%. Ray has pitched 42 innings at Coors Field over his career, so he’s familiar with the ballpark, and in that time he has recorded a solid 3.86 xFIP and 26.5% kRate.

We also have to consider that this is arguably the worst Rockies offense in quite some time, maybe ever. Even if we section off their splits to what they’ve done at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field versus LHPs this season, the numbers are ugly -- .209 AVG, .628 OPS, 52 wRC+, and 26.9% kRate. The Rockies have also had major issues with Robbie Ray’s top two pitches -- the four-seamer (52.3% USG%) and slider (24.1% USG%). Against LHP four-seamers and sliders, the Rockies have combined to hit for a .175 AVG (ranks last) and .256 wOBA (29th) with a 29.9% kRate (3rd highest). The Giants (-209 ML) are big-time favorites today, and we have to like the upside for Robbie Ray in this spot.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. WAS

The upside isn’t phenomenal, but you generally know you’re going to get a solid result out of David Peterson in most matchups. He’s been particularly solid over his last five starts where he has posted a 2.51 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, .212 opp AVG, 1.14 WHIP, and 22.0% kRate. Three of those five starts came against the Dodgers (twice) and Yankees, so that makes the results more impressive.

The Nats’ offense has been fairly dormant lately. In the month of June, they’re hitting for an MLB-worst .190 AVG, .536 OPS, and 50 wRC+. Their four-run performance last night was their first game scoring more than three runs this month as well. Over the last month against LHPs (230 PAs), Washington has hit for a .207 AVG, .614 OPS, 72 wRC+, and 23.9% kRate. The Mets (-279 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the day by a wide margin and, by all indications, David Peterson should be in line for another quality result this evening.

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. TEX

Multiple pitchers in the lower price range make some amount of sense today, but we’ll choose David Festa for the spotlight. Festa is looking to solidify a spot in the Twins’ starting rotation even once both Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews return from the IL. The results haven’t been spectacular over his four starts in the bigs this season, but Festa’s 5.40 ERA is backed up by a not-so-bad 3.99 xFIP, and the strikeout stuff has certainly been there. Festa has notched an excellent 28.0% kRate thus far, and that’s on par with the 27.8% kRate that he supplied across 64.1 IP last year. Across six Triple-A starts (28.2 IP) this season, he owns a 2.83 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 30.6% kRate, and 3.6% BB%, so the former top-100 MLB prospect has shown plenty of promise at both AAA and MLB levels.

The Rangers’ offense, which has struggled mightily for much of this season, came out of nowhere last night, scoring 16 runs on 17 hits. For Festa’s sake, here’s to hoping they’ve used up all of their offensive firepower in that game. Before that game, the Rangers were dead last with a .205 AVG versus RHPs over the last month, 29th with a .617 OPS, and 29th with a 74 wRC+ while producing a 23.9% kRate. Over 90% of Festa’s arsenal has featured the four-seamer, slider, and changeup. Against that pitch mix, the Rangers are also dead last with a .197 AVG and .268 wOBA. If the Texas offense reverts back to what they have been for 95% of the season, then this should be a nice night for Festa and potentially his best start of the season to date.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. NYY (Pivot off of Ray/Peterson chalk)

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | at MIN

Zack Littell (RHP), TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k | at BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Mets (Bump to LHBs) vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

The Mets have been in a groove against RHPs of late. They lead the MLB versus RHPs L2Weeks in OPS (.907), wOBA (.389), ISO (.275), and wRC+ (155). While Citi Field is much more of a pitcher’s park, the hitting conditions in New York are promising today with temps around 80 degrees and 10 mph winds blowing out to right field.

Jake Irvin isn’t blowing anyone away with his slate-low 15.1% kRate and 7.1% SwStr%. He has landed an ‘okay’ 4.02 ERA across 13 starts this season, but he has overperformed that ERA based on his 5.17 xERA and 4.56 xFIP. Mets lefty bats should also be the preferred targets today as Irvin has posted traditional splits and has been considerably worse versus the left side of the plate.

Irvin versus LHBs: .266 AVG, .343 wOBA, .215 ISO, 1.64 HR/9 Rate

Irvin versus RHBs: .211 AVG, .261 wOBA, .094 ISO, 0.79 HR/9 Rate

Pete Alonso is the only RHB I’d have any major interest in when stacking up Mets bats (there are only two RHBs in the NYM lineup to begin with). Once Irvin is retired for the day, Washington’s bottom-five ranked bullpen (5.81 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP) will be tasked with eating up the final few frames.

Favorite NYM Bats: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso

Bargain Bats: Ronny Mauricio/Jeff McNeil

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

The Rays have produced at a top-10 offensive level over the last two weeks, with a .760 OPS (8th), .331 wOBA (9th), .190 ISO (5th), and 117 wRC+ (6th). They’ve also snagged an MLB-leading 21 stolen bases over that stretch, five more than the second-place teams (Mariners/Giants). Tampa Bay has been more potent on the road, averaging 4.71 runs/gm, making them the #9 road offense in MLB, and they’ll be in a nice spot at the hitter-friendly Fenway Park (#5 most hitter-friendly ballpark).

Walker Buehler hasn’t been awful this season, but he certainly looks like a shell of his former self and has pitched to a lackluster 5.18 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 20.4% kRate, and 8.0% SwStr% this season. He has also surrendered plenty of four-baggers with a 1.85 HR/9 Rate and 19.6% HR/FB Rate. The Red Sox bullpen has been good lately, but if the Rays can jump out to an early lead on Buehler, then they won’t see the best relief options out of the Boston BP.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bat: Jake Mangum

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

Every hitter in the projected Royals lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. The Royals offense has been stuck in neutral for much of the season but they’re seeing the ball well over the last week or so. Spanning their last seven games, dating back to June 3rd, they lead the MLB with a .301 batting average while OPS’ing at .812 (ranks 5th) along with a .353 wOBA (6th) and 124 wRC+ (6th).

Clarke Schmidt is a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter but his road ERA of 4.79 is over a run higher than his home 3.49 ERA, and he has also allowed a lofty 1.74 HR/9 Rate on the road (versus 0.64 HR/9 Rate at home). Schmidt has also leaned on his cutter on nearly 50% of his total pitches, which is a pitch that the Royals have decent numbers against. Versus RHP cutters, the Royals have a .361 xwOBA, 89.3 mph average exit velo, and a low 12.3% kRate. It’s also going to be around 90 degrees at first pitch in Kansas City tonight, so any well-struck flyball will have a good chance to clear the fences. And, for what it’s worth, I’m making Jac Caglianone my home run call today, hoping for him to mash his first career dinger tonight.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Jac Caglianone

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF James Wood, WAS vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

32B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Jake Mangum, TB vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B Tyler Fitzgerald, SF vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Evan Carter, TEX vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Jac Caglianone, KC vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Mike Tauchman, CWS vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

3B Ronny Mauricio, NYM vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

C Kyle Teel, CWS vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Wenceel Perez, DET vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Vinnie Pasquantino MORE than 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

David Peterson LESS than 5.5 Hits Allowed

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!