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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A sizable 11-game MLB main slate resides on the Tuesday docket! Pitching isn’t overly deep today, but I believe we can find some guys who can work. Monday’s slate featured quite a bit of offensive firepower, and we may see that trend carry over to this evening’s slate. Not only is Coors Field back on the men,u but only three games possess an over/under below 8.5 runs. Weather also doesn’t look to be particularly problematic… always a plus! Let’s jump into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/10 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): There will be some rain around this afternoon and into the early evening, but things should be clearing up around first pitch. The worst-case scenario appears to involve a delay, with no significant PPD risk.

• WAS at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain will be out of the area by first pitch. Mid-70s temps with light 5-10 mph winds OUT to right/center.

• NYY at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warm temps in the 80s.

• SF at COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Low-80s temps to start with 10-15 mph winds OUT to center/left. Nice bump to bats in an already hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | at KC

After getting ambushed by the Dodgers on May 30th, Fried bounced back nicely with a much more Fried-esque performance last Thursday versus the Guardians when he allowed just a single hit and two walks with seven Ks across six shutout innings. On the season, Fried now owns a sharp 1.78 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 24.1% kRate, 5.6% BB%, and 51.8% GroundBall%. He is seventh among all MLB starters (min. 60 IP) with a 113 Pitching+ rating, so the stuff and plate control have been top-notch.

While the Royals do not strike out a ton, they have not found major success against LHPs. Against lefties over the last month, they check in at 21st with a 76 wRC+. Fried has a deep arsenal that goes six pitch types deep, but his three most utilized pitches have been the four-seamer (42.%% USG%), sinker (19.1%), and curveball (15.1%). Versus that pitch mix from LHPs, the Royals rank 22nd in wOBA, 29th in ISO, 23rd in HardHit%, and they’ve posted the 11th highest kRate at 21.7%. So, while it may not be a perfect matchup for Max Fried, this is another spot where he should find ample success.

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CWS

If you only recently got into baseball and/or MLB DFS within the last couple of years, you may be unfamiliar with Lance McCullers Jr. He was a quality starter for the Astros over the first six-plus years of his career and owns a rock-solid 3.51 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, .225 opp AVG, and 26.6% kRate over 136 MLB games (743.0 IP). Injuries derailed things and caused McCullers to miss most of the 2022 season and the entirety of the 2023-2024 seasons. He made his return to the big leagues back on May 4th and, now six starts in, it looks as if he has shaken off most of the rust after coming off of back-to-back excellent outings. If we take away the blow-up game he had against the Reds -- which was his second start back, he failed to get out of the first inning while giving up seven runs -- we’ll find that McCullers has put together some very strong numbers over his remaining five starts: 24.0 IP, 1.88 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, .204 opp AVG, and 31.1% kRate.

Admittedly, McCullers’ strength of opponents thus far has been pretty low, but today is no different with the White Sox in town. McCullers made his season debut against this White Sox team and, though it wasn’t an efficient showing, he did pitch 3.2 shutout innings across 87 pitches while notching four Ks. The White Sox own the lowest OPS (.640) versus RHPs this season, and their 22.5% KRate against righties is the 8th highest in MLB. McCullers has thrown either the slider, sinker, or changeup on nearly 75% of his pitches while mixing in a knuckle curve just over 15% of the time as one of his primary “put away” pitches. Versus the slider/sinker/changeup pitch mix, the White Sox are dead last with a .213 AVG and .273 wOBA. The knuckle curve isn’t a very common pitch type -- the White Sox have seen just 25 of those pitches from RHPs this season, so mentioning their team splits versus the knuckle curve would be mostly pointless. But, when McCullers has thrown that pitch (76 times this season), he has generated a monster 54.8% Whiff% and opponents have just a .067 AVG against it. McCullers is still going to have some risk attached to him but he has historically been better at home in his career (2.67 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, .208 opp AVG, and 28.0% kRate), the matchup doesn’t get much better, and the Astros (-175 ML) are the third-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | at COL

If you’re looking to slot in a cheap SP, rolling the dice on a Coors Field pitcher here, while risky, may not be the worst idea. Kyle Harrison, a former starter who began this season pitching out of the bullpen, regained his spot in the rotation and will be making his fourth consecutive start. He threw a season-high 87 pitches in his most recent outing, so he should take on a traditional starter’s workload tonight. Harrison’s lackluster 4.34 ERA is backed up by a stronger 3.62 xFIP. His 24.1% kRate, which is already solid, should begin to see some positive regression based on his excellent 14.3% SwStr%, which is only bested by MacKenzie Gore (15.7% SwStr%) and Dylan Cease (15.5% SwStr%) among today’s pitchers. As a general rule of thumb, you can usually take a pitcher’s SwStr% and double it to find out where their kRate should be. He has only thrown 18.2 IP this season so, if he continues to pitch well, we’ll likely see Harrison’s surface stats improve as he covers more innings.

Even if we only look at their home splits in the very hitter-friendly Coors Field, the Rockies do not possess anywhere close to good offensive numbers against lefties. In 334 PAs against LHPs at home, Colorado is hitting .210 with a .613 OPS, 48 wRC+, and 26.6% kRate. Harrison made two Coors Field starts last season and combined for 12.0 shutout innings while allowing five total hits, six walks, and eight Ks. The Giants (-221 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate, so we should like Harrison’s chances of snagging the win bonus while working through five or six strong innings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | at NYM

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | at MIL

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | at BOS

Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. WAS

Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.7k | vs. TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

Mitch Spence made his first start of the season last Thursday after appearing out of the bullpen for his first 22 games this season. Despite often coming into more advantageous spots as a reliever, Spence has posted just some “okay” results -- 4.09 ERA, 4.67 xERA, and 21.7% kRate. He also only threw 57 pitches last week, so he likely isn’t fully prepared to handle a typical starter’s workload, which would leave an awful A’s bullpen to eat up some additional innings. Over the L2Weeks, the A’s bullpen has struggled to a 6.11 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .287 opp AVG, and 1.49 HR/9 Rate.

The Angels are a streaky offense but have been rock-solid at the plate of late, rocking a .331 wOBA, .209 ISO, and 114 wRC+ over their last seven games. While they may not hit for average, the power (and homers) have certainly been there. Their 10 HRs since June 2nd are the 3rd most in MLB, behind only the Mets (15), who are coming off of a Coors Field series, and the D-Backs (11). Outside of a couple of hitters, there are plenty of cheap bats to choose from in this Angels lineup, so they’re a sensible stack to target if you’re looking to load up on Coors Field (the Giants, specifically) or top-end pitching.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Nolan Schanuel/Jo Adell

Seattle Mariners vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Brandon Pfaadt has been in a bad way over his last handful of starts, so we’ll see if the Mariners can continue to keep him on the struggle bus. Since May 13th (5 GS, 18.2 IP), Pfaadt has recorded an 11.09 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .309 opp AVG, .421 opp wOBA, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, and a meager 11.0% kRate. Over the last month, he has also ranked bottom 5th percentile in average exit velo (95.1 mph), and bottom 5th percentile in barreled balls with a whopping 17 barrels allowed in that stretch. Pfaadt will be backed up by a D-Backs bullpen that has ranked bottom-five L2Weeks. Arizona also needed to use six relievers in last night’s game that went 11 innings, so if Pfaadt runs into problems early, he may just have to “wear it” as the bullpen won’t be close to full strength.

It took until the ninth inning for the Mariners’ bats to put some runs on the board last night, but they should be able to get going earlier today, given Pfaadt’s recent form. The Mariners tend to be at their best on the road (4.78 runs/gm, #9 road offense) away from their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. They’re 5th in wOBA and wRC+ against RHPs on the road this season. Also, if we look at Pfaadt’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, sweeper, sinker), we’ll find that the Mariners are 7th with a .364 xwOBA, 7th with a 47.0% HardHit%, and 6th with a 91.0 mph average exit velocity. Current MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh is the catalyst to get this offense going so, if he can do some damage, others in the lineup may follow.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford

Bargain Bat: Rowdy Tellez/Cole Young

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

With Coors Field on the slate and the simple fact that Dylan Cease is a quality pitcher to go against, we’ll seemingly get the Dodgers at low ownership today with every hitter in the projected LAD lineup owning a ≤ 10% pOwn%, with eight hitters at ≤ 5% pOwn%. Last night’s series opener between these teams ended up being a bit of a track meet with 15 total runs scored on 19 hits, so perhaps that continues into game two. Cease has been better than his 4.72 ERA would indicate this season, as it is backed up by a strong 3.22 xFIP and 3.66 xERA. He has also put up a sharp 29.1% kRate with an elite 15.5% SwStr% and tends to pitch better at home.

That said, in 121 PAs versus Cease, the current Dodgers roster does own a productive .286 AVG and .360 wOBA. Cease has also allowed eight-barreled balls L30Days, which places him in the bottom 15th percentile of pitchers. And, of course, the Dodgers are consistently one of the top offenses in baseball. Over the L2Weeks versus RHPs, they’ve posted a .293 AVG, .842 OPS, .361 wOBA, .193 ISO, and 135 wRC+… and those are just “decent” numbers by the 2025 Dodgers’ standards… Shohei Ohtani has been in a bit of a slump (again, by Ohtani standards), and yet the Dodgers have still easily been a top-five offense lately. The Dodgers own the fourth-lowest implied run total today at 3.9 runs, and they could easily outperform those expectations tonight.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Matt Sauer (RHP), LAD

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

2B Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

2B Tyler Fitzgerald, SF vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

OF Sal Frelick, MIL vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

2B Thairo Estrada, COL vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF 

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!