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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone is prepared for a humdinger of a Friday slate because we have a 12-game beast to tame! Originally, this evening’s main slate was set as a 13-game slate, but due to some inclement weather in the forecast, the CWS at BAL game was moved up from a 7:05 ET start time to a 4:30 ET start time. Props to Baltimore for being proactive with that change… more organizations should take note! Just make sure you do not accidentally have any White Sox/Orioles players in your lineups as they will not accrue any fantasy points!

At first glance, I’d say the offensive side of things has the upper hand on this slate as pitching isn’t overly deep, especially by 12-game slate standards. There are still some quality arms to choose from, but there are plenty of guys who could easily get rocked as well. It should be a fun night of baseball, and there is much to get into! Best of luck!

(Newsletter title credit goes to @bulletproof, by the way!)

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/30 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): There will be a couple of stray showers moving through the general area, but it would be in their best interest to play through those (if necessary) as more significant and widespread rain moves in around 11 PM or so. I don’t expect many issues her,e but any sort of delay would increase the risk of not finishing nine innings. Temps in the mid-60s with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• LAA at CLE (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): A huge batch of rain is currently holding just south of Cleveland at the moment. They may catch a bit of rain that offshoots that system, but currently, the worst-case scenario seems like a delay, so they should play nine innings tonight.

• BOS at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.5 O/U): A broken line of storms has already moved through ATL, and things look largely clear for this evening. 70 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds, mostly blowing right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

• DET at KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Near 80 degrees to start with light winds OUT to center/right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PIT

Outside of a trio of lackluster outings at Coors Field, against the Yankees, and the Cubbies, Pivetta has put up some great performances in every other start this season. All three of those games happened to be on the road. The Padres are back at home this evening and, as you may assume, Pivetta has put up some much stronger splits at Petco Park. Here’s a quick rundown:

Home: 31.1 IP, 1.44 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, .179 opp wOBA, 0.61 WHIP, 32.7% kRate, 3.6% BB%, 0.57 HR/9 Rate

Away: 25.0 IP, 4.32 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, .340 opp wOBA, 1.52 WHIP, 23.9% kRate, 12.4% BB%, 1.44 HR/9 Rate

As you can see, Pivetta has gone from being a subpar starter on the road to posting ace-caliber numbers at home.

It’s a solid spot for that trend to continue. Oneil Cruz is still hitting the cover off of the baseball but, aside from him, there aren’t many dangerous bats in this Pirates lineup. Against RHPs over the last month, Pittsburgh is 28th with a .292 wOBA and 27th with an 82 wRC+. Their kRate in that span (20.4%) isn’t overly high but Pivetta is still fully capable of racking up a solid strikeout total versus just about any offense. Pivetta’s primary arsenal of four-seamer, curveball, and sweeper, which makes up nearly 90% of his pitches, should also play well in this matchup. Versus that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Pirates are hitting just .209 (ranks 28th) with a .275 wOBA (29th), .097 ISO (30th), and their 23.8% kRate, while not among the highest in MLB, is still a good bit higher than their overall kRate versus righties in recent weeks. The Padres (-198 ML) are also among the heaviest favorites on the evening and Vegas is pinning the Pirates with a paltry 3.2 implied run total -- second-lowest on the slate.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. COL

Nothing revolutionary here. We’ve got a quality pitcher in Peterson taking on the road Rockies, which generally leads to positive results [for the pitcher]. Peterson has been rock-solid on the season, posting a 2.79 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 21.9% kRate, and 57.6% Groundball% across his 10 starts (58.0 IP). And, as to be expected, the Mets (-345 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites today. Peterson has faced some stiff competition over the last five-ish weeks with games against the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and D-Backs (twice) within his last six starts. He largely pitched well against those stout offenses and, with the level of competition in mind, he put forth arguably his best performance of the season against the Dodgers this past Saturday: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 7 K with the win.

Against LHPs on the road this season, the Rockies are batting a puny .187 with a .559 OPS, .254 wOBA, 59 wRC+, and 30.0% kRate. Those are easily the worst all-around offensive numbers in MLB in regards to road splits versus LHPs. Colorado is also averaging just 2.36 runs/gm on the road and Citi Field is not exactly known as a hitter-friendly ballpark -- it currently ranks as the 5th *least* hitter-friendly ballpark based on Park Factor this year.

Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. LAA

There are a few intriguing value pitchers on this slate but Luis Ortiz sticks out as perhaps the most enticing option, especially as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings, where he is a flat $6,000. Like any pitcher priced in this range, Ortiz has some volatility baked in, but he has put up some not-so-bad results this season. Across 10 starts and 53.1 IP, Ortiz’s 4.73 ERA has been backed up by a more respectable 3.83 xFIP. Walks have been an issue (12.0% BB%) but he has held opponents to a .243 AVG and his 25.3% kRate is especially solid. He’ll also be pitching at home today where the results have been much better. Ortiz’s home/away splits this season:

Home: 22.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, .165 opp AVG, 1.07 WHIP, 0.81 HR/9 Rate, 35.6% kRate.

Away: 31.0 IP, 6.39 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, .280 opp AVG, 1.68 WHIP, 1.45 HR/9 Rate, 18.9% kRate.

There are some major differences there, particularly in the ERA, WHIP, and kRate.

After a torrid stretch between May 16th and May 23rd, when they were one of the best offenses in baseball, the Angels’ lineup has cooled off drastically over the last week. They have combined for just five runs over their last five games and, in that span versus RHPs (121 plate appearances), they’re hitting for just a .205 AVG, .518 OPS, 46 wRC+, and 28.9% kRate. That may be a fairly small sample size, but it’s certainly indicative of a slumping offense. One thing that hasn’t changed about the Angels’ offense at any point this season is their tendency to strike out at a significant clip. Their 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs this season is the highest in MLB and the only team close to them is the woeful Rockies at 26.4%. This is also a very righty-heavy lineup, which bodes well for Ortiz given his traditional splits (he gives up less damage to RHBs). There are just too many factors working in Ortiz’s favor here so he’s certainly on the short list of viable cheap arms to consider today.

Edit: Late edit here after noticing the Angels have Mike Trout back in the lineup today. That still doesn’t change my thoughts on Ortiz very much.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | at LAD

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIN

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. TB

Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | at TEX

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | vs. BOS

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | at SEA

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.8k | at MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees (LHBs Preferred) vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

The Yankees' bats weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders in their recent series against the Angels, but perhaps some of that could be contributed to the “Coors hangover” effect that plagues many teams coming off of a Coors Field series. An off day yesterday followed up by a majorly hyped heavyweight series matchup with the Dodgers may wake the Yankees bats back up.

The Yankees have been the No. 2 ranked road offense this season, averaging 5.50 runs/gm, and they are near, or at, the top of every major offensive category when looking at road splits versus RHPs: .276 AVG (2nd), .820 OPS (2nd), .358 wOBA (2nd), .185 ISO (3rd), and 134 wRC+ (1st).

While I don’t believe you can comfortably leave Aaron Judge out of any Yankees stacks, the LHBs will have the upper hand in this matchup against Tony Gonsolin. After missing the entirety of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Gonsolin only has a handful of starts and 25.0 IP under his belt this season. He has been very sharp versus RHBs (2.11 xFIP, .209 opp AVG, .281 opp wOBA, 1.15 WHIP, 42.6% kRate) but quite awful against LHBs (5.86 xFIP, .294 opp AVG, .383 opp wOBA, 13.1% kRate). He has also allowed nine barreled balls L30Days (bottom 10th percentile) so the opportunity for the Yankees to smash him for multiple homers is there. This Dodgers’ bullpen also has not been great, or even good, lately. While injuries have mostly affected their starting rotation, they do have multiple relievers on the IL at the moment as well. And, over the last two weeks, the Dodgers bullpen has come away with a lackluster 4.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .276 opp AVG, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate. Once again, we don’t completely ignore the Yankees' right-handed bats, like Judge, but the LHBs should receive a bit of preferential treatment here.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham

Bargain Bat: Jasson Dominguez

Atlanta Braves vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

I mentioned to Tyler earlier today that the amount of steam the Braves are getting today makes me a touch uncomfortable… but admittedly it’s a strong spot for this lineup. Especially now that it is powered by leadoff slugger Ronald Acuña Jr., who made his season debut one week ago.

The Braves have been a top-five offense versus RHPs L2Weeks: .281 AVG (5th), .819 OPS (4th), .362 wOBA (4th), and 130 wRC+ (4th). They have also been fairly tough to strike out, with an 18.2% kRate versus RHPs L2Weeks (6th lowest). The Braves lineup as a whole has been generally better/more consistent at home and Truist Park will feature some of the better hitting conditions on the slate.

For the second time in two weeks, the Braves will face RHP Lucas Giolito, the last time coming at Fenway Park back on May 17th. Giolito is only five starts into the season as he was yet another pitcher who missed all of last season due to elbow surgery. Across his five starts, Giolito has posted quality starts in three games and was beaten up for six runs apiece in his other two starts. The Braves mashed him for eight hits, including three HRs, and six runs in that last meeting a couple of weeks ago. Atlanta also matches up pretty well against Giolito’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Versus that pitch mix, the Braves are 10th with a .330 wOBA, 8th with a .349 xwOBA, and 9th with a 44.3% HardHit%. The Red Sox bullpen also owns a 4.94 xFIP (2nd worst) L2Weeks next to a low 17.1% kRate and, even with the off day yesterday, this bullpen combined for over 200 pitches on Tuesday and Wednesday. So the Braves bats should be in a solid spot even when Giolito is off the mound.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

That aforementioned Braves stack does seem to be a popular target today so, if you want some leverage against some of that chalk, you might consider going to the other side of this game to the Red Sox bats. Every hitter in the confirmed Red Sox lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. This lineup can be frustrating at times and they’ve put up two runs or fewer in four of their last five. Despite that, they have still managed to rank top-five in OPS (.809), wOBA (.353), ISO (.201), and wRC+ (124) against RHPs L2Weeks.

If this lineup gets going, it may require some patience. Grant Holmes has been outstanding the first time through the order (1.78 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.67 WHIP, .205 opp wOBA, 1.07 HR/9 Rate, 28.9% kRate) but he has had the tendency to get rocked once he pitches into the second time through the order (7.11 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .385 opp wOBA, 2.37 HR/9 Rate, 16.7% kRate). That may seem slightly nitpicky, but as a Braves fan who has watched almost every Grant Holmes start this season, those ugly “2nd TTO” numbers do rear their ugly head quite regularly. The Braves bullpen also has not been the best lately -- they own the 3rd worst xFIP (4.83) and 5th highest WHIP (1.54) L2Weeks. The Braves also played a doubleheader against the Phillies yesterday and were forced to use seven relievers across the two games -- six of those bullpen arms threw at least 17 pitches, so there may not be many BP options available for Atlanta to go to if Holmes gets into some trouble. Holmes may just be asked to “wear it” and throw 100-ish pitches no matter the situation.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Carlos Narvaez

Bargain Bat: Marcelo Mayer

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Cody Bellinger, NYY vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

2B/OF Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

2B/OF Kody Clemens, MIN vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

OF Dane Meyers, MIA vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

2B/3B Marcelo Mayer, BOS vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B/2B Colt Keith, DET vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

2B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

2B/3B Luke Williams, ATL vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!