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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most teams have the day off today ahead of their respective weekend series so we’ll be left with a little four-game Thursday slate that is set to begin at 6:45 ET. The first of these four games is the second leg of the Braves/Phillies doubleheader. Normally, FanDuel excludes any doubleheader game from their main slate but, fortunately, they’ll be keeping ATL/PHI on the board today instead of slimming down to a three-game slate -- not sure about everyone else, but any slate with less than four games is not something I enjoy playing. Pitching is pretty solid on this four-gamer so offense may be tough to come by. But, overall, it’s far from the worst four-game slate I’ve seen! This will be a short and sweet newsletter so let’s jump right to it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/29 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL at PHI (6:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): This is the only outdoor game of the evening. There is a low-end chance of a light shower/sprinkles. Nothing too concerning and it’s more likely they play the game completely dry.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ATL

For the second time this season, the 2024 NL Cy Young winner, Chris Sale, will face off with the 2024 NL Cy Young runner-up, Zack Wheeler. The first showdown between these two aces came back on April 8th in Atlanta, which ended up being a pretty high-scoring game with the Braves snagging the 7-5 win. Wheeler gave up a season-high five runs on eight hits in that game, but that was just one of two lackluster outings that he has had across 11 starts this season. Both of those down games came on the road. Wheeler has dominated at home where he has pitched to a 1.69 ERA, 1.78 xFIP, .170 opp AVG, 0.68 WHIP, 36.7% kRate, and 2.0% BB%. Elite stuff.

I do not have high hopes of the Braves doing any real damage against Wheeler the second go around. For one, they have not been as potent on the road, where they’ve averaged just 3.93 runs/gm (10th lowest in MLB). And, over the last week, they’ve put up a subpar 90 wRC+ with the 6th highest kRate at 25.9%. There is also some extensive BvP history to look back on here between these division rivals. Across 305 plate appearances versus the current Braves roster, Wheeler has held them to a .206 AVG and .271 wOBA while notching a 29.8% kRate. So, expect yet another outstanding start from Wheeler this evening.

Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | vs. TB

Gusto has bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation over the last few weeks and is poised to make his seventh start of the season tonight. There has been some good and some bad for him in his debut MLB season. The good: at home, he has put up a quality 3.78 xFIP alongside an above-average 24.8% kRate and fairly low 7.5% BB%. The bad: his home ERA sits at 5.46 and he has given up a lofty 1.82 HR/9 Rate. Gusto’s inflated ERA could be to blame on some poor BABIP luck (.349 opp BABIP this season) and an unusually high amount of home runs given up. But he is capable of a solid outing and he could be a nice value option if you’re going cheap at SP.

The Rays are a hot team at the moment, boasting a 7-1 record over their last eight. A few of the Rays’ bats are really heating up at the same time in that stretch. However, they’re another offense that hasn’t been as effective on the road and this will be their first road game since May 18th. Against RHPs on the road over the last month, the Rays rank 25th with an 89 wRC+ and have posted the 4th highest kRate at 25.5%. I’m not expecting Gusto to pitch a super clean game today, or go particularly deep into the game, but if he can put together five strong innings with around five to seven Ks, I believe we’ll take that on this small slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | at SEA

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | at PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Washington Nationals vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

The Nats are tied for a slate-low 3.7 implied run total but I’d expect them to outperform that figure tonight. They’re hitting right-handed pitching well, with an .819 OPS (ranks 4th), .354 wOBA (4th), .221 ISO (1st), and 127 wRC+ (4th) over the L2Weeks. They’ve also cut down on their strikeouts with an 18.1% kRate L2Weeks (5th lowest).

Emerson Hancock is certainly nothing special, as his 6.21 ERA, 6.09 xERA, 1.83 HR/9 Rate, and 16.7% kRate would indicate. He also owns a poor 89 Stuff+ rating, so his pitches just aren’t all that deceptive. The Mariners’ bullpen has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA L2Weeks but their 4.47 xFIP in that span is the 7th highest in MLB, so they’re due for some regression. Overall, I won’t be shocked if this Nats offense stays fairly hot at the dish tonight.

Favorite WAS Bats: James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr., CJ Abrams

Bargain Bat: Robert Hassell III

Athletics vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

The A’s have ranked as a top 10 offense over the last week with their 116 wRC+ and the top of the lineup has been putting up some quality results. Berrios is not a bad pitcher but he’s rocking a poor 5.13 xERA this season and, over the last month, he has given up 11 barrels (bottom 5th percentile) and a 91.4 mph average exit velo (bottom 20th percentile). The A’s may not plaster a bunch of hits all over the field but I do think it’s a good spot for multiple guys to hit homers.

Favorite ATH Bats: Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bat: Shea Langeliers (and/or Max Schuemann if he’s in the lineup)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

I don’t have high hopes for my Braves bats versus Wheeler tonight, so this is going to be a pure leverage stack in the off-chance that Atlanta does end up doing some notable damage versus the Phillies’ ace (or perhaps their bullpen on a doubleheader day). Every hitter in the projected Braves lineup has a < 5% pOwn%, which is rare for a four-game slate, and Wheeler is likely going to check in with 40+% ownership tonight. That’s pretty much all it boils down to. Even taking a shot on two or three ATL bats will be a good way to “get different” on this four-gamer.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, Marcell Ozuna

Bargain Bat: Ozzie Albies

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Jacob Lopez (RHP), ATH

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

2B/3B Max Schuemann, ATH vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Robert Hassell III, WAS vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!