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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

As usual, Wednesday sets up as a split slate day so it’s a full afternoon and evening of baseball! The FanDuel main slate will feature seven games and begin at 6:35 ET. DraftKings is excluding the STL/BAL and ATL/PHI games from its main slate, bringing it down to five games with a 7:40 ET start time. The weather is a bit nasty around parts of the East Coast and, as of now, it’d be a mild surprise if that ATL/PHI game plays… and the STL/BAL game isn’t exactly “safe” either. So, realistically, both FD and DK slates may end up looking the exact same but certainly keep an eye on those two games over on FanDuel. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I am a little under the weather today so this newsletter will be on the shorter side.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/28 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL at BAL (6:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Rain is around the area but should be clearing up by gametime, though some light rain may linger into the evening. If field conditions hold up, I believe they may decide to play this game… perhaps with a late start. Both teams have an off day tomorrow, so rescheduling for Thursday in better conditions could also be an option. Essentially we’ll need to keep an eye out for news and see what their intentions are. If they play, temps will be in the 50s with 10 mph winds IN from right.

• ATL at PHI (6:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Rain all day and all night, and it won’t be clearing until around midnight. It seems pretty likely this game will get PPD in favor of a doubleheader tomorrow (or some other later date). For the purposes of this newsletter, I’m going to exclude players from this matchup. Update: ATL/PHI has been PPD. Doubleheader scheduled for tomorrow.

• CIN at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Dry to start with rain chances increasing later in the evening. If my weather app is to be trusted, it looks like any serious rain won’t move in until around midnight, so this game should be pretty safe. Still worth checking up on closer to first pitch in case of any changes. Reminder: This is the first game of the night on the DraftKings main slate.

• COL at CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Upper-50s temps with very light winds IN from left. It’s still not great hitting weather but notably better than the last couple of days at Wrigley.

• NYY at LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-60s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CIN

Noah Cameron, who is the No. 85 overall prospect in MLB (via FanGraphs), has enjoyed quite a bit of success over his first three big league starts. He has cleared at least 6.1 innings in every start and has allowed just two earned runs over his 19.1 IP, resulting in a 0.93 ERA. Cameron has matched that minuscule ERA with a .108 opp AVG and 0.67 WHIP. Some regression is certainly due, based on his 4.18 xFIP, but for a guy who has pitched less than 20 MLB innings, that’s honestly not a bad number. After notching just three Ks in each of his first two starts, Cameron recorded 8 Ks in his last outing against the Twins, and he has consistently held a kRate right around 30% for most of his minor league career, so the strikeout stuff is in the tank.

The Reds’ offense has been trending lately but they’ve done most of their damage against right-handed pitching. Against LHPs over the last month, they’re hitting just .216 with a .607 OPS, .273 wOBA, .104 ISO, 65 wRC+, and 27.4% kRate. So it’s a nice spot for Cameron to record another quality start with a solid strikeout total to boot.

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. COL

Probably not much of a surprise here. Boyd isn’t a phenomenal pitcher but he draws the road Rockies today, which has routinely been the best matchup a pitcher could ask for this season. Over 55.1 IP this season, Boyd has put up some decent numbers across the board -- 3.42 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 23.7% kRate, and 6.4% BB%. He has been pitched a bit better at home where he has put up a 3.00 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, 25.0% kRate, and 2.1% BB%.

Against LHPs on the road this season (293 plate appearances), Colorado has eeked out just a .186 AVG, .575 OPS, .262 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and a huge 29.3% kRate. Matthew Boyd has faced a ton of tough competition this season, especially early on when he drew the Dodgers twice, the Padres twice, and the D-Backs. For the most part, he pitched well in those games, so there is zero reason to suspect he’ll have any major issues with the Rockies today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | at KC

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | at LAA

Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | at TEX (Risky DK SP2)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Home runs and offensive explosions have been tough to come by at Wrigley Field the last couple of days. As touched on in the weather section, conditions in Chicago aren’t necessarily great for hitting again today, but better than the last two days, so perhaps we’ll see some dingers here… primarily on the Cubbies’ side of things. They’ve still been among the best, if not the best, offense versus RHPs L2Weeks: .310 AVG, .872 OPS, .374 wOBA, .193 ISO, 142 wRC+, and 18.9% kRate.

Chicago will match up with Tanner Gordon, making just his 11th big league start. Across 46.2 IP at the MLB level, Gordon has been roughed up to the tune of a 7.52 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .333 opp AVG, and 2.12 HR/9 Rate while recording just a 16.5% kRate. Gordon owns a very poor 82 Stuff+ rating this season, so his pitches have been low quality by MLB standards. Yesterday’s game also went 11 innings so neither bullpen is particularly fresh and the Rockies’ BP has consistently been a bottom 10 group throughout the season, even when they’re not pitching at Coors Field.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Matt Shaw

Seattle Mariners vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Prior to yesterday’s nine-run, 12-hit performance in the series opener versus the Nats, the Mariners' offense had been stuck in neutral for a while. They weren’t exactly a bad offense in recent weeks, but very middle-of-the-pack. If you recall, through the end of April and into early May, the Mariners had surprisingly been one of the most potent offenses in baseball, which quieted some of that off-season talk about Seattle not spending on bats to improve the lineup. But perhaps that game yesterday sparks another run of top-flight offense for Seattle.

It’s certainly a good spot to do it versus Trevor Williams, who has limped to a 6.39 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .300 opp AVG, and 18.3% kRate across 49.1 IP this season. It’s not a major sample size, but in 49 PA versus Williams, the current Mariners offense owns a .326 AVG, .386 wOBA, and 14.9% kRate. The Nats’ bullpen has managed to pitch better in recent weeks but there is reason to believe they’re going to regress sooner rather than later. On the year, the Nats’ bullpen is the 2nd worst in each of the following metrics: 6.22 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, and 1.62 WHIP.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Rowdy Tellez

Bargain Bat: JP Crawford

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

8-of-9 hitters in the projected Nationals lineup have a < 7% pOwn%. After missing the first quarter of the season with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, George Kirby made his season debut last Thursday versus the Astros. Things did not go well for Kirby as he allowed five runs across 3.2 IP (72 pitches). He also looked pretty rusty across his ten minor league rehab innings where he came away with a 7.20 ERA, .349 opp AVG, 1.70 WHIP, and he gave up three HRs (2.70 HR/9 Rate). I don’t believe it will take Kirby too long to regain his usual form, though, he was a pretty feast-or-famine pitcher last year. The Nats have plenty of young talent in their lineup and they’ve been an above-average offense in recent weeks (111 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, ranks 12th). The Mariners do own a strong bullpen so most of the damage Washington can potentially put on the board may need to happen while Kirby is out there. Regardless, a small two or three-man mini Nats stack could pay off this evening.

Favorite WAS Bats: James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr.

Bargain Bat: Keibert Ruiz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF James Wood, WAS vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Austin Hays, CIN vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Paxton Schultz (RHP), TOR (Expected to be activated off IL today)

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

3B Yoan Moncada, LAA vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Paxton Schultz (RHP), TOR

3B Santiago Espinal, CIN vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!