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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend! Tuesday sets up with a loaded 11-game MLB  main slate. This slate will feature a great mix of pitching and offense. Weather also shouldn’t cause too many headaches today. There is plenty to dive into for this slate so we’ll waste no time and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/27 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIN at TB (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Can’t totally rule out a random storm making its way over the ballpark, but it’s more likely to stay dry. Temps in the mid-80s with light winds OUT to left at times.

• CWS at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

• CIN at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low chance for some light rain/sprinkles. Temps in the 50s with light winds IN from left.

• COL at CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cool temps with 10 mph winds IN from center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.1k | at LAA

Rodon has been rolling for much of this season and, spanning his previous seven starts (42.2 IP), he has come away with a 1.48 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, .152 opp AVG, 0.87 WHIP, and 31.5% kRate while stranding 88.4% of baserunners. He has simply been consistently good to great over these last five-plus weeks. And it never hurts to be backed up by a potent offense like the Yankees. Despite the Angels playing some quality baseball in recent weeks, their offense has been fairly M.I.A. across their current three-game losing skid. The Yankees (-218 ML) check-in as one of the heaviest favorites on the slate, so we’ll like Rodon’s chances of snagging the win bonus.

If we look at Rodon’s top three most utilized pitches (four-seamer, slider, changeup), we’ll find that the Angels rank 23rd in wOBA versus that pitch mix and have posted a 26.7% kRate (7th highest). So it’s not the best spot for the Angels’ offense to snap out of their mini-funk.

Corbin Burnes (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PIT

Burnes may have started the season in the mud but he’s been excellent over his previous five outings (1.44 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, .165 opp AVG, 1.02 WHIP, 27.4% kRate) -- that includes a pair of starts versus the Dodgers. Burnes has also shown some noticeably stronger home splits thus far. Here’s a quick rundown:

Home: 24.1 IP, 1.48 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, .169 opp AVG, 0.99 WHIP, 27.7% kRate

Away: 28.1 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, .238 opp AVG, 1.34 WHIP, 20.5% kRate

The cutter (53.6% USG%) and curveball (19.1% USG%) have been Burnes’ two most utilized pitches. That should play well in this matchup with the Pirates, who rank 24th in wOBA and dead last in ISO while owning an MLB-high 30.8% Whiff% and the 7th-highest kRate (23.6%) against that pitch mix. The Pirates also head in with a 76 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days (ranks 29th) and, outside of a red-hot Oneil Cruz, there aren’t many intimidating bats in this lineup. The D-Backs (-258 ML) are another very heavily favored team on this slate. So, all-in-all, it’s a promising spot for Burnesy.

Cade Horton (RHP), CHC | DK: $8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL

Horton is a highly regarded right-hander who is ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the Cubs’ farm system and the No. 35 overall prospect in baseball (via MLB.com). He made his big league debut 17 days ago and has since pitched 14.1 IP. It perhaps hasn’t been the smoothest start to his MLB career, as opponents are hitting .288 against him and have taken him deep for three homers. Horton’s kRate also sits at a modest 15.9%. That said, his 4.40 ERA is backed up by a quality 3.37 xERA, indicating he has pitched better than some of the surface stats would indicate. Horton also rocked a 1.24 ERA, .128 opp AVG, and 30.6% kRate across 29.0 IP in Triple-A this season, so he clearly has some legit stuff in his right arm.

Horton will draw about as favorable of a matchup as a young pitcher could ask for as he faces off with the road Rockies. Against RHPs on the road over the last month, the Rockies have hit .214 with a .615 OPS, .272 wOBA, 71 wRC+, and 27.0% kRate… ugly stuff. Weather conditions in Chicago are also favorable for pitching this evening with cool temps and 10 mph winds blowing in from center at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Despite having an inexperienced starter on the mound, the Cubs (-345 ML) are massive favorites this evening, so there’s a strong chance Horton can snag a win bonus. Horton also built up to 92 pitches in his last start six days ago, so, after throwing 77 and 79 pitches in his first two outings, he should look to handle a traditional starter’s workload this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $11k, FD: $10.7k | vs. ATH

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.9k | at TB

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CWS

Brady Singer (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | at KC

Bowden Fracnis (RHP), TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | at TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

Burrows’ first career MLB start did not go according to plan as he gave up four runs, including a pair of bombs, to a Brewers offense that was struggling mightily versus RHPs ahead of that matchup. Burrows posted some nice numbers in Triple-A this year, including a stout 31.5% kRate, but he’ll now be making his first career road start versus one of the best offenses in the MLB… which also doesn’t strike out very much.

The D-Backs have been particularly potent at home and, versus RHPs at home L2Weeks, they’re boasting a .310 AVG, .928 OPS, .403 wOBA, .214 ISO, 158 wRC+, and 16.2% kRate. In his season debut, Burrows threw either the four-seamer or changeup on just over 70% of his pitches. That could be bad news against this D-Backs lineup, who own an MLB-leading .378 wOBA and .259 ISO versus that pitch mix, along with the 7th lowest kRate (18.5%). Burrows will be backed up by a subpar Pirates bullpen that has put up a lackluster 5.13 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 18.5% kRate over the last two weeks.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Corbin Carroll

Bargain Bat: Gabriel Moreno/Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Chicago Cubs vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Wrigley Field may not have the best home run hitting conditions today, but that may not matter too much against German Marquez, who has been among the worst starters in MLB. Marquez has somewhat surprisingly been much, much worse outside of Coors Field, and, across 22.2 IP on the road this season, he has limped away with an 11.12 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, .363 opp AVG, 2.03 WHIP, 1.59 HR/9 Rate, and 12.7% kRate.

On the flip side, the Cubs have arguably been the best overall offense against RHPs L2Weeks: .306 AVG (1st), .881 OPS (1st), .377 wOBA (1st), .209 ISO (2nd), 144 wRC+ (1st), and 18.2% kRate (2nd lowest). And, as usual, the Rockies will be forced to deploy one of the worst bullpens in baseball once Marquez’s day is done.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Matt Shaw

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

Every hitter in the projected Reds’ lineup has a ≤10% pOwn% with eight hitters at ≤5% pOwn%. LHP Daniel Lynch IV will get the start today, though he likely only going to cover the first one or two innings. Lynch has been effective out of the bullpen this season, earning a 1.57 ERA across 23.0 IP. However, he has been extremely fortunate to snag that sub-2.00 ERA based on his 5.34 xFIP, which is a very poor mark. Lynch’s low 12.5% kRate is also the exact same as his 12.5% Walk Rate, which is never a good sign. But, presumably, the Royals will be relying heavily on their bullpen this evening, which has been fairly middle-of-the-road this season.

Meanwhile, the Reds head in swinging some hot bats. They’ve been a top 10 offense L2Weeks, having posted a .279 AVG (4th in MLB), .788 OPS (5th), .342 wOBA (7th), .180 ISO (5th), and 112 wRC+ (10th). Bullpen games can sometimes be tricky for opposing offenses since hitters are going to see a variety of arms in quick succession which could keep them off balance, but they can also work out overwhelmingly in favor of the opposing offense just as easily. We’ll see if the Reds can cash in against some BP arms tonight.

Favorite CIN Bats: Austin Hays, Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl

Bargain Bat: Santiago Espinal

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Austin Hays, CIN vs. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. TBA, BOS

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B Kody Clemens, MIN vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

3B Santiago Espinal, CIN vs. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

3B Brett Baty, NYM vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!