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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s time for a Friday flurry of games with a dozen matchups landing on the main slate ticket! Today's advantage pretty clearly falls in favor of the bats. There are a ton of hefty over/unders on tonight’s slate, including four games currently pinned with double-digit O/Us. Pitching is certainly going to be a tricky minefield to navigate, as there aren’t many arms that you can comfortably believe in having a strong outing tonight. So, things are probably going to be a bit chaotic today, but that’s what we live for! It’s looking like anyone’s ballgame in the realm of MLB DFS tonight, so let’s hope the LineStar crew comes out on top. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/9 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL at TB (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Once again, rainstorms coming in from the gulf should generally hold north of the ballpark, but, for Tampa Bay weather, you can rarely fully rule out the chance of a stray storm making its way over the ballpark. Hitting conditions once again look great with temps in the low 80s and 10-15 mph winds OUT to center.

• CHC at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some afternoon rain could linger into the early evening, but, worst-case scenario, there is a late start and no further issues expected once they get going. Mid-50s temps with 10 mph crosswinds blowing left-to-right.

• SF at MIN (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to right.

• LAD at ARI (9:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be around 90 degrees during this game, so bats get a bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | vs. CIN

On a slate where there is a large amount of uncertainty with pitching, Hunter Brown may land in a tier of his own. You could argue that Brown has been perhaps the most consistent starter in MLB up to this point. His “worst” game probably came in his last start versus the White Sox, and, even then, he turned in a quality start and earned the win with a 6.0 IP (98 PC) | 4 H | 3 BB | 3 ER | 9 K pitching line. That was the only outing that Brown has allowed more than two earned runs this season, and, across seven starts and 43.0 IP, he has pitched to a superb 1.67 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and 31.0% kRate. Among starting pitchers with at least 30.0 IP, Brown is 5th in MLB with a 117 Pitching+ rating, so both his command and stuff have been top tier.

The Reds are coming off of a rough, hard-luck four-game series in Atlanta, where nearly everything that could have gone wrong… did. From injuries, to late-inning bullpen fumbles, to struggles at the plate, and a pair of extra-innings losses. Moral may be a bit low for this Reds squad as they head into another tricky series on the road. The bats have not been great over the last week and, against RHPs in that span (174 PA), they’re batting just .212 (ranks 25th) with a 75 wRC+ (24th) and 24.7% kRate (8th highest). The Astros (-205 ML) are pretty comfortably the heaviest favorites on this 12-game slate, and there are no signs of Hunter Brown’s impressive 2025 campaign slowing down tonight. If you can find some value hitters that you’re comfortable with, Brown should be worth spending the $11k on, mainly due to the scarcity of appealing SP options elsewhere.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TOR

I know it’s still early in the season and the sample sizes for pitchers are still relatively small, but we’re already seeing some pretty stark home/road splits out of Luis Castillo. Here is a quick rundown of his current home/road splits this season:

• In four home starts (23.0 IP): 1.57 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, .171 opp AVG, 0.96 WHIP, 22.0% kRate

• In three road starts (15.1 IP): 5.87 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, .323 opp AVG, 1.89 WHIP, 13.5% kRate

Castillo has always pitched better at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park, so this isn’t some new realization, but I felt that it was worth pointing out since the trend has been very clear early on this season.

Castillo draws a home matchup with the Blue Jays this evening. Admittedly, I am rarely big on attacking Toronto with pitching. While their offense has been pretty subpar this season (89 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 26th), they aren’t a team that strikes out often -- their 19.3% kRate vs. RHPs is the 6th lowest in MLB. That said, their kRate has ballooned to 24.2% against RHPs on the road L2Weeks (128 PA). At the risk of striking out more, their offense has been more productive overall, with a 106 wRC+ in that same split. But we’ll trust the “Castillo home splits” rationale and anticipate a quality start out of the Mariners’ righty tonight, which could also include a decent number of Ks. The Blue Jays also own the second-lowest implied run total (3.3 runs) on the slate.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | at ATH

While the cheap arms on this slate aren’t great, one of these guys is probably going to outperform expectations. I’ll bank on Will Warren being that guy tonight. Warren’s 5.65 ERA over 28.2 IP isn’t pretty, but he has pitched considerably better than that ERA would indicate, based on his 3.53 xFIP, which is the 6th best mark among the slate’s 24 starters. His 4.57 xERA is also over a run lower than his ERA. Warren has also provided a strong 26.0% kRate while doing a nice job at keeping the ball on the ground with a 48.8% GroundBall%.

Not to sound like a broken record, but the A’s are another team I don’t love going after with pitching. Unlike Toronto, the A’s have generally been an above-average offense this season (108 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 12th) and they don’t strike out much (18.9% kRate vs. RHPs, 4th lowest). The Athletics’ temporary home, Sutter Health Park, also checks in as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark. All of that said, the A’s do rank 24th in wOBA versus Warren’s top three most utilized pitches -- the four-seamer, sweeper, and changeup -- and they’ve posted a 25.7% Whiff% (8th highest) against that pitch mix as well, which suggests that they could strike out more than usual tonight. There is a lofty 11.0 over/under pinned on this game, which is second only to the Coors Field game. But the Yankees (-148 ML) are moderate favorites here, and there is at least a realistic chance that Warren delivers five or six strong innings while landing the win bonus and a decent strikeout total.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Meyer (RHP), MIA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.8k | at CWS

Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9k | at TB

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k | at CLE

Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | at HOU

Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), ATH

The Yankees’ offense may have slowed down in recent weeks, but even in a moderate “slump”, the Yankees have still been a top-10 offense (116 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, ranks 9th). Osvaldo Bido has outperformed his already lackluster 4.71 ERA based on his awful 5.68 xFIP, he doesn’t strike out many guys (13.1% kRate), and he gives up a slew of fly balls (50.4% FlyBall%). His two most utilized pitches have been the four-seamer (42.7% USG%) and slider (21.2% USG%). Against that pitch mix from RHPs, the Yankees have only hit for a .211 AVG, but they have posted the 6th highest xwOBA (.385), 2nd highest ISO (.268), and 4th highest HardHit% (49.1%). Bido has also ranked in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers in barreled balls allowed. All of that to say, the Yankees' bats set up well versus a guy who doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss, gives up plenty of hard-hit flyballs, and is pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. The A’s bullpen has also been pretty bad with a 5.59 ERA and 4.43 xFIP over the L2Weeks, both bottom-10 rankings in that span.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells (and/or Jasson Dominguez if he’s in the lineup)

Boston Red Sox vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

There is a bit of clubhouse drama going on with the BoSox right now, but that’s none of our concern for DFS purposes. There is ample hitting talent and power within this Red Sox order, particularly in the top half of the lineup. And, over the L2Weeks vs. RHPs, Boston has posted a .272 AVG (5th), .804 OPS (5th), .351 wOBA (5th), .202 ISO (2nd), 122 wRC+ (7th), and 37.2% HardContact% (37.4%). They’ll face off with Michael Lorenzen, who has just been a very average pitcher this season. Lorenzen leans on the four-seamer, changeup, and curveball as his top three most utilized pitch types. Versus that pitch mix, the Red Sox are 3rd in average exit velo (91.4 mph), 4th in HardHit% (48.8%), and 6th in ISO (.183). Lorenzen has given up 10 barreled balls over the L30Days (bottom 5th percentile), which could put him in trouble against the power bats of the BoSox lineup. I will say that the Royals’ bullpen has been pitching very well of late, so most of the damage that Boston does may need to come while Lorenzen is out there.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Wilyer Abreu

Bargain Bat: Ceddanne Rafaela

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

Every hitter in the confirmed Phillies lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. I was a little surprised by the low ownership projections here, but then again, it is a massive slate with Coors Field on the menu. The Phillies have put up some excellent production against RHPs L2Weeks: .291 AVG (3rd), .821 OPS (4th), .359 wOBA (4th), 129 wRC+ (4th), and 16.1% kRate (2nd lowest). Meanwhile, Gavin Williams has had a pretty rocky season thus far and has pitched to a 5.81 xERA, 1.75 WHIP, and 18.8% HR/FB Rate while also walking plenty of batters (13.0% BB%). His one saving grace has been his strikeout rate (25.3% kRate/13.6% SwStr%), but, as touched on, the Phillies are not striking out very much at all right now. Over the last month, Williams is in the bottom 10th percentile of barreled balls allowed and bottom 20th percentile in average exit velo and average batted ball distance. The Guardians’ bullpen also hasn’t been very sharp lately, and, though Cleveland had an off day yesterday, their bullpen combined to throw nearly 200 pitches across their games on Tuesday and Wednesday, so fatigue may be a factor there. All-in-all, I’d say there is a pretty good chance that the Phillies outperform their modest 4.1 implied run total, perhaps drastically.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott

Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), ATH

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Hunter Dobbins (RHP), BOS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Steven Kwan, CLE vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Zach Littell (RHP), TB

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

3B Ryan McMahon, COL vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), CWS

OF Max Kepler, PHI vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

C Austin Wells, NYY vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), ATH

OF Harrison Bader, MIN vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

1B Carlos Santana, CLE vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Hunter Dobbins (RHP), BOS

OF Dane Myers, MIA vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Daniel Schneemann, CLE vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Zach Dezenzo, HOU vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

It’s Friday HR parlay time! If you’re tailing, this will return 10x the wager over on PrizePicks if it hits, but, as usual, if you have access to sportsbooks, you can likely shop for improved odds.

Rafael Devers MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

Aaron Judge MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!