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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Between off days and getaway days, we will have just a four-game mini main slate ahead of us this evening. As far as four-game slates go, this one looks pretty damn good with a nice combination of pitching and hitting talent. And there are no weather issues expected -- nothing worse than a four-game slate being slimmed down to a two or three-game slate. This will be a fairly short and sweet newsletter, so let’s jump right into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/8 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI at TB (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Storms coming in from the gulf look to hold north of Tampa, but it will be worth a “just in case” radar check closer to first pitch. Great hitting conditions with 80-degree temps and 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center/right.

• CIN at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Can’t fully rule out a stray storm hitting the ballpark at the moment, with the best chance coming in the middle/later innings. So a delay is a possibility, but it is more likely that this game will play without any issues. Mid-70s temps with very light winds IN from right.

• LAD at ARI (9:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open this evening. Temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-80s during the game, so bats get a slight bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | at TB

Luzardo is working on a strong start to the 2025 season, and, over seven starts (41.2 IP), he has come away with a 1.92 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 27.6% kRate, and a slate-best 14.3% SwStr%. Luzardo has shown great command of the zone and checks in at 8th among all MLB starters (min. 30 IP) with a 112 Location+ rating.

Looking at Luzardo’s primary putaway pitches, the sweeper, sinker, and slider, we’ll find that the Rays have an MLB-worst .148 AVG and .207 wOBA to go alongside a fairly high 28.1% Whiff% and 24.6% kRate. The Rays have been downright awful against LHPs over the last two weeks (and it’s a decent sample size of 142 plate appearances). In that span against lefties, they’re gone just 15-for-122 (.123 AVG) with a .365 OPS, .184 wOBA, .016 ISO, and 15 wRC+. And 13 of those 15 hits were singles. The only issue I have against Luzardo is the fact that the hitting conditions are excellent at Steinbrenner Field tonight (warm with 10+ mph winds blowing out). I also don’t love the Phillies pitching their lefty starters (Cristopher Sanchez pitched yesterday) in back-to-back days versus the same team, as it gives the opposing hitters a better chance to adjust. But, other than those two factors, which are somewhat nitpicky, Luzardo is looking like a strong option today, and the Phillies (-155 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CIN

Schwelly has struggled in a couple of recent starts, allowing six runs to both the Dodgers and Blue Jays, but that isn’t going to sway me away from him today, especially at these DFS prices. Schwellenbach’s 3.92 ERA is backed up by a better 3.18 xFIP, and his 21.9% kRate is due for some significant positive regression based on his excellent 13.9% SwStr% -- as a reminder, the general rule of thumb is that you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% to find where their overall strikeout rate should be. Schwellenbach continues to show great plate command and has only allowed a 4.1% BB% this season. He is also 6th among all MLB pitchers (min. 30 IP) with a 116 Pitching+ rating, indicating that both his location and “stuff” have been elite.

The Reds also continue to slump offensively and have posted an 84 wRC+ (3rd worst) versus RHPs L2Weeks. Schwellenbach has a deep six-pitch arsenal but if we do the same thing as we did with Luzardo and just look at Schwelly’s primary putaway pitches -- the slider, curveball, and cutter -- we’ll find that the Reds have posted the 3rd lowest batting average (.210), 4th lowest wOBA (.278), 5th highest whiff rate (32.2%), and 6th highest strikeout rate (24.9%) against that pitch mix from RHPs. The Braves (-205 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate, and this is looking like a prime bounce-back spot for Schwellenbach.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | at ARI

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k | at LAA

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | at ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

The Phillies' offense has been clicking lately, and versus RHPs L2Weeks they’ve ranked top five in AVG (.291), OPS (.821), wOBA (.360), and wRC+ (129). They have enjoyed their time in Tampa Bay during the first two games of this series, knocking in 15 runs on 24 hits. The weather at Steinbrenner Field is looking particularly hitter-friendly, more so than the last couple of days, and this ballpark has also ranked as the #8 home run park in MLB. I suspect that ranking will only rise as the heat and humidity continue to increase down in Florida.

Ryan Pepiot is a serviceable starter, but on a small slate that is concentrated with some quality arms, Pepiot brings a slate-worst 4.23 ERA and 4.17 xFIP to the table along with a lackluster 1.41 WHIP. Pepiot has also allowed nine barreled balls L30Days, placing him in the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers, and he’s given up a lofty 41.0% HardContact%. That’s bad news for him against a Phillies lineup that has posted the 9th highest barrel rate and an MLB-leading 47.8% HardHit% over the last two weeks. The Rays’ bullpen has been very solid this season, but they could be a bit taxed heading into tonight after combining for 176 pitches over the last two days.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Alec Bohm

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb with the stack suggestions, but the Phillies and Dodgers just feel like the clear-cut offensive options today. The Dodgers' bats have been on a tear in recent weeks, hitting .299 (ranks 2nd) with an .871 OPS (1st), .379 wOBA (1st), .200 ISO (3rd), and 144 wRC+ (2nd) against RHPs L2Weeks. It is certainly no surprise, but Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman have been two of the hottest hitters in MLB, and Mookie Betts is beginning to heat up as well.

Brandon Pfaadt was having a pretty decent season until he got knocked around by the Phillies this past Saturday (4.2 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 ER), and he was getting a little overdue for some regression based on his slate-worst 5.30 xERA. Pfaadt has allowed an average exit velo of 91.1 mph L30Days (bottom 15th percentile) alongside a high 28.2% LineDrive%. Hard hit line drives are always the most likely batted balls to go for hits, so that combination that Pfaadt has going is a bad omen [for him] versus this Dodgers lineup. We also have to account for a struggling D-Backs’ bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 5.04 xFIP L2Weeks alongside a 5.48 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 17.6% kRate, and 1.96 HR/9 Rate. So, while it’s a bit of an obvious statement, the Dodgers' offense is primed for a strong night, and the Chase Field roof being open provides one final bump to the bats in this game.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Hyeseong Kim

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

Finding leverage on a four-game slate can be difficult, as we’re obviously left with far fewer options than usual. But I doubt many are going to want to stack any D-Backs bat against Yamamoto, given his absurd 0.90 ERA that he’s acquired across seven starts and 40.0 IP. But, inevitably, every pitcher has a bad day at the office, and perhaps today is that day for Yamamoto. He does occasionally get into some trouble with walks (8.5% BB%), and the D-Backs have posted the 2nd highest walk rate (10.8%) versus RHPs this year. Also, if we look at Yamamoto’s top three most utilized pitches -- four-seamer, split finger, and curveball (which make up nearly 85% of his pitches) -- we’ll find that the D-Backs have been among the best MLB offenses against them. Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), Arizona has put up a .356 wOBA (ranks 5th) with a .260 ISO (1st) and 20.3% Whiff% (3rd lowest). Odds are Yamamoto continues to roll on the mound, but perhaps if he gets into a bit of trouble with the walks and puts himself into some semi-stressful situations, he could give up a couple of big hits versus this capable D-Backs lineup. Seven of the nine hitters in the projected D-Backs lineup have a pOwn% under 7%.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Alek Thomas

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

3B Yoan Moncada, LAA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

OF Anthony Santander, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Gavin Lux, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Eli White, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

2B Hyeseong Kim, LAD | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Trea Turner MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Freddie Freeman MORE than 0.5 Singles 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!