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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesday sets up with a nice mid-sized games featuring eight games on FanDuel and seven games on DraftKings -- the only difference being the TEX at BOS game (6:45 ET start time) being included on the FD main slate. There will be plenty of excellent options to choose from both at pitching and in the hitters/stacks department. The weather will mainly threaten one game in particular (CWS at KC), but a bit of wet weather is possible in some other spots as well, so keep an eye on some of these forecasts that we’ll get into below. Aside from weather headaches, this is looking like a fun evening of baseball. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/7 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TEX at BOS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): A slightly menacing batch of rain may make its way into Boston in the early evening. It’s not something that will hang around long, so a late start seems like the worst-case scenario here. Winds near 10 mph blowing OUT to center/left.

• PHI at TB (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Weather in Tampa can be unpredictable, but right now there is just a low-end chance for a delay due to a random coastal storm making its way over the ballpark. Nothing to worrisome but it does add some more risk to starting pitchers [in the event of an early innings delay]. Temps in the low 80s with some moderate humidity and light winds OUT to right. Good hitting conditions.

• SD at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Slight chance for some light rain. It shouldn’t cause any major issues, and there’s a strong chance things stay fully dry. 70 degrees with light winds OUT to center.

• CIN at ATL (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some scattered showers that are currently moving through the area should be out of the way by first pitch, and any additional rain should hold off until well after this game wraps up. Still, it’s worth double-checking closer to gametime, but no issues are expected at this time.

• CWS at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): If there is one game to sweat over, it’d be this one. Moderate to heavy rain is making its way to KC and could cause some problems here. Less risk if they start on time and just try to play through some rain, but if they start with a delay, it could easily turn into a PPD.

• BAL at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10+ mph winds, mostly blowing left-to-right, a bit IN from left.

• DET at COL (8:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): A bit of rain is around this afternoon and could maybe linger into the early evening, but it seems like a late start is the only potential irregular outcome here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | at ATL

Greene will have a bit of a “risk vs. reward” feel to him today. While he has been absolutely filthy and has only had one truly poor outing this season, he has drawn a pretty forgiving schedule up to this point. Regardless, across his seven starts (42.2 IP), Greene has procured a stellar 2.53 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 33.3% kRate, 16.6% SwStr%, and 4.8% BB%. The quality of his pitches has been elite, and he leads all MLB pitchers (min. 30 IP) with a 126 Stuff+ rating. He throws either the four-seam fastball (58.7% USG%) or the slider (31.8% USG%) on nearly all of his pitches, and the Hunter Greene slider, which is his go-to putaway pitch, has been among the best pitches in baseball. Opponents are hitting just .093 versus that pitch, which has also generated a monster 52.2% Whiff%. But, while this is nothing new, the main catch with Greene is his tendency to give up a ton of flyballs (57.0% FlyBall%), barrels (9 barreled balls L30Days, bottom 10th percentile), and a high exit velocity (91.9 mph, bottom 10th percentile).

The Braves have been a slightly above-average offense versus RHPs L2Weeks, posting a 103 wRC+. However, they have also posted the third-lowest kRate (17.8%) in that span versus righties. If we dive deeper into the matchup, we’ll find that Atlanta has also had the third-lowest Whiff% (27.8%) versus RHP sliders, along with the 8th lowest kRate (22.6%), 7th highest wOBA (.340), and 5th highest ISO (.222). So it’s far from the best matchup Greene could ask for, but the strikeout upside is still there, as not all righty sliders are created equal. If Greene brings his A+ stuff and avoids giving up too many well-struck flyballs, he should turn in a nice outing.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.7k | at TB

DraftKings is pretty much begging for Sanchez to catch some steam with the $7,500 price tag. For reference, Sanchez is the third-most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel slate, slotted behind only the aforementioned Greene and Max Fried, who are two guys inside the top three in current Cy Young Award odds in the NL and AL, respectively. Anyhow, Sanchez has been pretty sharp this season and was able to bounce back last week with a decent performance after getting removed from his April 22nd start after just 58 pitches due to forearm soreness. Sanchez’s 2.92 xFIP leads all pitchers on this slate, and his 28.9% kRate/14.5% SwStr% trail only Hunter Greene today. Sanchez has also excelled at keeping the ball on the ground with a 54.9% GroundBall%. Opposing hitters have managed to record an unusually high .346 BABIP against Sanchez this season, and the lefty is likely to see some positive regression in that department based on how well he’s pitching.

Rolling lefties against the Rays has been a pretty successful venture this season. On the season versus LHPs, Tampa Bay has mustered just a .189 AVG, .553 OPS, .086 ISO, and 66 wRC+ -- all firmly bottom-five numbers. If we look just at the last two weeks against LHPs (147 PA), we’ll see that the Rays’ numbers get even worse -- .155 AVG, .455 OPS, .062 ISO, and 38 wRC+. The kRate hasn’t been terrible for the Rays against lefties at 22.6%, but there are still several hitters in this lineup who are multi-strikeout candidates (B. Lowe, J. Aranda, K. Misner, and J. Caballero all have a 26+% kRate versus LHPs). Sanchez has specialized in throwing the sinker (46.9% USG%) and changeup (37.6% USG%). The Rays have hit just .182 against those pitches from LHPs, and no team has posted a lower BABIP (.180) against that pitch mix, so perhaps this is a spot where Sanchez’s poor BABIP luck turns around.

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LAD

Outside of a rough outing on the road in Arizona, there has been plenty to like about Grant Holmes’ last handful of starts. In that span, dating back to April 9th (29.0 IP), Holmes has pitched to a solid 3.72 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, .178 opp AVG, and 25.4% kRate. As you can see, the opponent batting average has been very low versus Holmes, but walks have been his major issue; though, he did only issue a pair of free passes across six innings in his last start versus the mighty Dodgers lineup, which only plated two runs against him. Holmes has checked in with a 94th percentile ranking in breaking ball run value so far this season, and his slider and curveball (#2 and #3 most used pitches) have really provided some nice results as opposing hitters are batting under .120 versus both pitches. “Holmes is where the heart is” as well, as he has averaged +39.4% more FPPG when pitching in Atlanta.

The hope here is to also catch a slumping Reds offense while they’re down. Cincy has scored only two runs combined over their last three games, and they have put up just a 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, which is the second-worst mark in MLB during that span. As it stands, the sportsbooks are viewing this as the most likely pitcher’s duel on the evening, given its slate-low 7.5-run over/under, and the Reds have just a 3.7 implied run total (3rd lowest).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k | vs. SD

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | at LAA

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CWS (Monitor weather)

Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.4k | at COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Detroit Tigers vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET

Non-Coors Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

Might we catch lightning in a bottle in back-to-back days with the Twins? The odds seem favorable as the Orioles are wheeling out Charlie Morton back on the mound. Morton was recently demoted to a bullpen role after getting shellacked and posting a 10+ ERA across his first five starts of the season. He hasn’t been particularly good in the long reliever role either, but, since the O’s haven’t recently promoted a pitcher to the big league roster, they just need a warm body to put on the mound today. Across his 27.2 IP this season, Morton has come out on the other side with a 9.76 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 18.1% kRate, 14.6% BB%, 2.28 HR/9 Rate, and 19.4% HR/FB Rate. Of course, he hasn’t pitched as poorly as those surface stats would indicate, based on his 6.06 xERA and 5.43 xFIP… but those still aren’t exactly good underlying numbers. Morton has allowed a .420+ wOBA and .210+ ISO to both sides of the plate. He will likely have a shorter leash as a starter than he had earlier in the season, but getting some additional innings against the O’s bullpen isn’t a bad thing either. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles' bullpen has posted a 6.59 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .311 opp AVG, and 2.63 HR/9 Rate… ugly stuff. Meanwhile, the Twins’ bats are clicking over the L2Weeks with a .284 AVG (ranks 4th), .777 OPS (8th), .343 wOBA (8th), 124 wRC+ (6th), and 19.7% kRate (10th lowest). Royce Lewis also made his season debut yesterday, and while he went 0-for-4, it’s only a matter of time before he shakes off the rust.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa

Bargain Bat: Ryan Jeffers

New York Yankees vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

If the weather ends up looking cooperative in Kansas City, the Royals are looking like a solid stack target and would’ve been spotlighted here were it not for the sketchy forecast. But I’m perfectly fine settling for some Yankees bats as an alternative.

Despite what his 5.61 ERA and 1.60 WHIP may say, Dylan Cease is still a very good pitcher. He has been another one of those guys who has been BABIP’d to death with a .375 opp BABIP this season, and his 4.04 xFIP is closer to where his ERA should be. That said, it’s hard to ever count the Yankees out of a matchup when they’re at home. Yankee Stadium has ranked as the #4 most hitter-friendly park this season, and has easily been the #1 home run park. NYY has averaged over six runs per game at home this season to go along with an elite .853 OPS, .368 wOBA, .251 ISO, and 140 wRC+. And, despite being due for some positive regression, Cease has struggled a bit more on the road (-34.2% less FPPG away) and has been barreled up seven times over the last month (bottom 20th percentile). Aaron Judge is, of course, an auto-lock in any NYY stack, but feel free to mix-and-match with any Yankees hitter that is 1-thru-7 in the order.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells/Jasson Dominguez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

I made the case in favor of Hunter Greene in the pitching section above, but also noted that he hasn’t faced the stiffest of competition up to this point and the Braves could be a poor matchup for him due to how well they’ve fared versus RHP sliders this season, which is Greene’s main pitch that he uses to get ahead in counts and put batters away. It was also pointed out that Greene gives up plenty of hard contact and flyballs, which is why he has a higher-than-average 1.48 HR/9 Rate so far this season despite otherwise pitching exceptionally well. So, a case can be made for stacking two or three Braves bats together in hopes of getting some home run exposure, especially the lefty ATL bats as five of the seven HRs Greene has allowed this season have come to LHBs, resulting in a .218 ISO and 1.93 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. The Reds also used some of their better relievers in last night’s game, which went into a 10th inning, so there could be some advantageous matchups in the latter innings or if the Braves can knock Greene off the mound somewhat early in the game. I still think Greene likely gets the better end of the deal in this matchup, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets knocked around a bit. Every hitter in the projected Braves lineup has a < 5% pOwn%.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Alex Verdugo, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Eli White (and/or Drake Baldwin if he’s starting)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS (Monitor weather)

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC (Monitor weather)

3B Alex Bregman, BOS | DK: N/A, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

SS/3B/2B/1B/OF Josh Smith, TEX | DK: N/A, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR 

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Maikel Garcia, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS (Monitor weather)

OF Max Kepler, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: N/A, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), BAL

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Jordan Beck, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET

OF Gavin Lux, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Eli White, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

C Drake Baldwin, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B/2B Colt Keith, DET | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS (Monitor weather)

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: N/A, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (RHP), LAA

OF Kyle Isbel, KC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS (Monitor weather)

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Kerry Carpenter MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Ryan Jeffers MORE than 5.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!