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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The ball gets rolling on a new week of baseball with an eight-game Monday slate! For whatever reason, FanDuel is getting a little wonky with their main slate today. They’ll be including two early games in the 6 o’clock ET window (LAD at MIA and CLE at WAS) while excluding the two late games (NYM at ARI and SEA at ATH). Not sure why they made that decision but beware of that, mainly if you play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Things are a mixed bag between pitching and hitting/stacks today and this feels like one of those slates where you’re going to have to take some uncomfortable risks to come out on top. We’ll see how things shake out but it should be an interesting evening of MLB action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/5 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CLE at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Some storms are pretty likely to move through the area at some point this evening. So, a delay seems like a strong possibility and a PPD may be on the table as well. Double-check the forecast closer to first pitch.

• SD at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): There’s a good chance that they’ll have to play this game through some wet conditions if they want to get in nine innings because rain looks to be present for much of the evening. The current hope is that it will mostly be lighter stuff but temps are also going to be in the 50s with some 5-10 mph winds IN from center. Not the best baseball weather. Check the latest forecast closer to first pitch to get a better idea of how things will shake out.

• CWS at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): 70 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

• SF at CHC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cold temps around 50 degrees with light winds IN from center.

• SEA at ATH (10:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Stiff crosswinds, around 15 mph, blowing left-to-right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. CWS

Ragans is coming off a groin strain, which caused him to miss one turn through the rotation. It’s only been 11 days since his last MLB start, so he shouldn’t be expected to have too many restrictions tonight, if any. Ragans was roughed up a bit in his previous two outings, which inflated his ERA to 4.40. However, he’s been a bit unlucky, as his slate-best 2.45 xERA and 2.58 xFIP indicate. Ragans is rocking a monster with 35.9% kRate and 15.9% SwStr% this season. It is 10th among all MLB starters (min. 30 IP) with a 109 Stuff+ rating.

Ragans will land in a prime bounce-back spot at home versus the White Sox. The White Sox have found some notable success on offense lately, spearheaded by some hot hitting out of Luis Robert Jr. That said, they’re still near the bottom of the rankings in most key offensive categories versus LHPs -- .213 AVG (ranks 25th), .600 OPS (25th), .267 wOBA (26th), and 70 wRC+ (25th). They do boast a lower-than-average 21.9% kRate versus lefties, but there are still some Ks to be had throughout the order. Given their recent scrappiness with the bats, the White Sox can’t be picked on with pitching without any worry attached to it. But Ragans is simply the best pitcher on this slate, and if he’s a full-go tonight, he should have a successful start. The Royals (-230 ML) are easily the heaviest favored team on this slate, and the White Sox are being pinned with a slate-low 3.1 implied run total.

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. SF

Boyd isn’t the flashiest pitcher, but he brings a sparkling 2.70 ERA into his seventh start and will be throwing in some favorable pitching conditions at Wrigley Field tonight (cold temps with winds blowing in). Boyd doesn’t have tremendous K upside (20.7% KRate/10.1% SwStr%), but he is a good bet to rack up at least a handful of strikeouts today.

Boyd’s primary pitch mix features the four-seamer (43.3% usage), changeup (21.6%), and slider (21.6%). Against that pitch mix from LHPs, the Giants have just a .255 wOBA (4th lowest) and 28.1% kRate (4th highest) to go along with a 33.8% HardHit% (2nd lowest). On the season against lefties, the Giants have mustered a subpar 85 wRC+ and 24.6% kRate. So, all-in-all, this sets up as a plus matchup for Boyd and the Cubs (-175 ML), also step in as the second-heaviest favorites on the evening.

AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CIN

It's a bit of a risky option here, but AJSS has looked pretty sharp in his last couple of big league starts. He was on pace for an exceptional Coors Field performance last week before a comebacker off the elbow cut his day short at 59 pitches, though that was enough to get him through 5.1 IP so he may have been on pace for a complete game. He was removed from the mound mostly for precautionary reasons and has since shown no issues with the elbow, so he’s pitching on the regular five days rest. Overall, across four starts and 19.0 IP this season, Smith-Shawver has come away with a 4.26 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 25.6% kRate, and 13.3% SwStr%. He’s also been a strikeout machine in his brief (9.1 IP) Triple-A outings, racking up a 32.5% kRate and 12.54 K/9.

The Reds can be a dangerous matchup, and they’ve been at their best on the road where they rank 2nd in MLB averaging 5.88 runs/gm. But they haven’t necessarily been crushing RHPs, especially lately. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they have checked in at 25th in MLB with an 88 wRC+ alongside a 23.4% kRate (5th highest). So, while he’ll likely give up a decent number of hits and a couple of runs, this is a strong spot to stack up some strikeouts for Smith-Shawver. The Braves (-148 ML) are also solid favorites in this game and the Reds are pinned with a 3.9 implied run total (T-4th lowest on the slate).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SD (Monitor weather)

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k | at ATH

Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.3k | at MIL

Shane Smith (RHP), CWS | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | at KC

Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Seattle Mariners vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

(DraftKings Main Slate Only)

The last couple of games excluded, the Mariners have been torching the offensive metrics, mostly against right-handed pitching. Over the L2Weeks vs. RHPs (295 PA), the Mariners have hit .285 (ranks 3rd) with an .865 OPS (1st), .381 wOBA (1st), .203 ISO (2nd), and 156 wRC+ (1st). They’ll draw a matchup with Luis Severino, who is a pretty middle-of-the-road pitcher. Severino carries a solid 3.30 ERA into his eighth start, but he’s been a bit fortunate up to this point based on his 4.21 xERA and 3.99 xFIP. Severino has leaned on the four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper, which make up roughly 75% of his pitches thrown. Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Mariners have rocked a .350 wOBA, .378 xwOBA, .195 ISO, and 47.0% HardHit% this season, along with a low 19.3% kRate. Severino isn’t exactly a flamethrower and he’s only posted a 17.0% kRate and 7.0% SwStr% this season. So the ball should be put in play quite a bit by Seattle this evening. We also have to like the fact that this game is at Sutter Health Park, the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season. Seattle has also been the #3 road offense in MLB, averaging 5.47 runs/gm away. The A’s do have a fairly decent bullpen to deploy behind Severino but it’s not among the best pens in the league.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, Julio Rodriguez

Bargain Bat: JP Crawford/Rowdy Tellez

St. Louis Cardinal vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

The Cards have been a top 10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks, hitting .267 (7th) with a .769 OPS (9th), .340 wOBA (9th), and 117 wRC+ (10th). They’ll see one of the lower-quality starters on the mound in Carmen Mlodzinski, who has mustered an ugly 6.58 ERA, 5.07 xERA, and 1.81 WHIP across his six starts. He has also allowed a high 26.0% LineDrive% over the last month. By far his best start of the season came against the Cardinals back on April 7th, but St. Louis seems to be seeing the ball much better since that last meeting with Mlodzinski. The Pirates also have a struggling bullpen that has posted the 5th highest ERA over the last two weeks, alongside a lofty 1.43 HR/9 Rate and low 17.5% kRate. The Cardinals have been the #8 home offense (4.89 runs/gm) and are set up for success this evening.

Favorite STL Bats: Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan

Bargain Bat: Alec Burleson

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sandy Alcantara

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Hyeseong Kim

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

Every hitter in the confirmed White Sox lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. This is a pure leverage stack against a chalky Ragans, who has a 26% pOwn% on DraftKings and 40% pOwn% on FanDuel. Ragans doesn’t seem to have any lingering effects from the recent groin injury, but he may come out a touch rusty after not pitching in an MLB game in 11 days. He also wasn’t overly sharp in his last two outings. While it’s a small sample size, the White Sox have a .758 OPS and 117 wRC+ versus LHPs over the last two weeks and they’ve been a serviceable offense in general lately. This is a riskier leverage stack than usual, but there is enough going in favor of the White Sox for it to make sense. I wouldn’t go wild here but a small two or three-man CWS stack provides ample leverage today.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth

Bargain Bat: Miguel Vargas

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley, ATL vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Maikel Garcia, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

OF Gavin Lux, CIN vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

3B Mark Vientos, NYM vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today! As usual, Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!