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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a split slate Wednesday, and seven games will chime in on the evening main slate. This slate will feature a few high-caliber pitchers, but most of those guys will draw some tricky matchups. So, in general, I could envision this slate favoring the offensive side of things slightly. And, unfortunately, rain is looking likely to cause some issues in some spots, and it wouldn’t be a major surprise if one or two games get knocked off the slate due to postponement. So that’s going to add a bit of a headache into the mix, but we’ll look to crack the code nonetheless. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/21 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL at WAS (6:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Trouble spot #1. This game should either start dry or in light rain. That rain should get heavier as the evening goes on, and it will last throughout the evening. So, unless the forecast changes, there doesn’t seem to be a great window to get this game played. Be on the lookout for a postponement here, and, if they start in a delay, there is a strong chance it is eventually postponed as well. If they manage to play, temps will be in the 50s with 10 mph winds IN from right. Due to the PPD risk and Washington’s long history of mismanaging poor weather situations, I will exclude players from this game in today’s newsletter. This game has been PPD’d

• NYM at BOS (6:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light rain/sprinkles are possible, but nothing ever seems to get heavy enough to cause problems. Temps in the mid-40s with 10 mph winds IN from center.

• TEX at NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Trouble spot #2 (though not quite as much risk as ATL at WAS). Rain in the area for much of the afternoon and into the night. Temps will be around 50 degrees with 10+ mph winds IN from center. They may be able to start on time in some lighter rain, but it’s another situation where the rain gets more significant as the evening wears on (but maybe not necessarily a total downpour at any point). Perhaps they can get most or all of nine innings played, but this one could honestly go several different ways. If they happen to announce a late start, it’d be a bad sign, as that could easily turn into a post-lock PPD. I’ll be keeping TEX/NYY players in the mix for now, but monitor this forecast closely as we near first pitch.

• PHI at COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Temps in the mid-70s to start with 10-15 mph winds IN from left. Not ideal winds for homers, but it’s still Coors Field, so bats don’t get a major downgrade, if at all.

• LAA at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Great hitting conditions once again with temps in the low-80s to start and 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• ARI at LAD (10:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with light ~5 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. NYM

Unfortunately, some less-than-ideal weather threatens to knock off a couple of the better pitchers on this slate off the board. However, the weather in Boston shouldn’t be too problematic, as far as delay/PPD risk is concerned. And cold temps in the 40s with 10 mph winds blowing in from center benefits the pitching side of things. So we can feel pretty good about rolling out Garrett Crochet, who is one of the best aces in the game. Outside of some slight location issues, there is not much to complain about with Crochet’s 2025 campaign up to this point -- 10 starts, 63.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 29.1% kRate, and 13.4% SwStr%. Fenway Park is not generally a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, but Crochet has still provided some nice home splits, and, again, the weather is in favor of pitching in Boston today.

Crochet will catch a Mets offense that is amid a fairly notable slump. They have failed to score more than four runs in eight consecutive games and, in that span versus LHPs, they’re hitting a paltry .167 with a .514 OPS, .254 wOBA, 62 wRC+, and 22.1% kRate. They have also played just eight combined runs in their last six games. They’ll likely break their slump sooner rather than later, but I would not expect that to happen tonight versus a pitcher of Crochet’s caliber.

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SD

Gausman has been fairly feast or famine this season, but he does become a bit more trustworthy when he’s on his home mound. Here’s a quick rundown of his home/away splits this season:

Home: 23.2 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 27.5% kRate, 2.2% BB%.

Away: 27.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 19.1% kRate, 9.1% BB%.

The Padres are not a team I’ll target with pitching very often. Even when they’re not hitting well, they’re a tough team to strike out. That said, they are certainly slumping at the moment, having scored just three runs over their last four games. Against RHPs over the previous week (160 PA), they’re working with a .212 AVG, .574 OPS, .256 wOBA, 63 wRC+, and a higher-than-usual 20.6% kRate. One thing working in the Padres’ favor, and against Gausman, is their solid and extensive BvP history. In 176 PA versus Gausman, the current Padres roster owns a stout .298 AVG, .326 wOBA, and a low 15.9% kRate. But, similar to the aforementioned Crochet, we’re looking for a talented pitcher in Gausman to take advantage of a recently struggling offense.

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TEX

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather for this game as there is some delay/PPD risk.

Value pitching is suspect once again today, but, assuming this game plays in New York, Yarbrough may not be the worst roll of the dice. For much of his career, Yarbrough has operated out of the bullpen, often across multiple innings -- the same has been true this season. But Yarbrough will be starting for a third consecutive game within the Yankees’ rotation and does have 70 MLB starts under his belt, so this isn’t exactly unfamiliar territory for him. It’s a bit of a mystery concerning how much of a pitch count Yarbrough will have -- he hasn’t pitched in 10 days and most recently covered five innings on 67 pitches against the Athletics back on May 11th. If I had to guess, he’s probably going to end somewhere around 65-75 pitches today. His results have been decent this season: 24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 3.46 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, 19.6% kRate, 10.2% SwStr%. Yarbrough is certainly not a flamethrower and instead relies on limiting hard contact, which he’s been outstanding at. He has allowed just an 80.3 mph average exit velocity L30Days, which places him in the top 95th percentile in that department.

Yarbrough may not pitch deep into this game, but it is a promising matchup as the Rangers have not been productive against lefty pitching. Over the last month versus LHPs, Texas has struggled to a .220 AVG, .600 OPS, .270 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and 26.4% kRate. They’ve also recorded the 4th highest SoftContact% in that span and 5th lowest HardContact%, which plays directly into Yarbrough’s aforementioned strength. Against Yarbrough’s top three most utilized pitches (sinker, sweeper, changeup), the Rangers have a .194 AVG (ranks 27th), .229 wOBA (27th), and 29.8% HardHit% (28th). The Rangers should be rolling out a fairly RHB-heavy lineup today, but that may not be a bad thing for Yarbrough’s strikeout potential -- he has a 22.4% kRate vs. RHBs this season (versus a 15.9% kRate vs. LHBs). So, if he does throw around 70 pitches and has a couple of economical innings, I could see Yarbrough ending up as a decent value option on this slate (mostly as an SP2 play on DraftKings), but it’s still a fairly risky play.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | at NYY (Monitor weather)

JP Sears (LHP), ATH | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. LAA

Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.7k | at ATH

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

The D-Backs have pretty consistently been among the best offenses in baseball this season. They’ve routinely performed well against righties lately and, versus RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve owned an MLB-leading .869 OPS, .377 wOBA, and are 3rd with a 139 wRC+. In that same span, they’ve also posted a low 17.8% kRate (4th lowest) and 4th highest HR/FB Rate (17.5%).

Dustin May has primarily thrown two pitch types this season -- the sinker (41.7%) and sweeper (39.7%). The D-Backs have hit that (RHP) mix very well this season to the tune of a .368 wOBA (3rd), .205 ISO (2nd), and 47.7% HardHit% (2nd) with just a 16.8% Whiff% (5th lowest). After missing most of 2023 and all of 2024, Dustin May has had a couple of nice outings this season. But he has been a fairly average starter overall and comes into start number nine with a 4.43 ERA, 4.55 xERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 21.6% kRate. What’s most notable about May is how poor his reverse splits have been. Against RHBs this season, he has allowed a .357 wOBA, .197 ISO, and 1.84 HR/9 Rate with a 7.98 ERA. Some of the best D-Backs hitters swing from the left side of this plate, and shouldn’t be ignored in any stacks, but the RHBs could certainly be upgraded. After May is done for the evening, a Dodgers bullpen that has been very shaky recently (L2Weeks: 5.37 ERA, .271 opp AVG, 2.35 HR/9 Rate) will eat up the remaining innings.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Athletics vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Kochanowicz has honestly looked quite good in his last couple of outings, and, most recently, he held the potent Dodgers lineup to a measly one run across 6.2 IP at Dodger Stadium. While he didn’t receive a spotlight, I do have Kochanowicz listed in the “other pitchers to consider” because I could see him putting up another decent performance. That said, it’s probably more likely that the A’s do some sizable damage against Kochanowicz and the struggling Angels' bullpen behind him.

Kochanowicz (4.71 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 13.7% kRate) sticks mostly to the fastball -- either using his sinker (46.5% USG%) or his four-seamer (23% USG%) on the majority of his pitches. That should lead to plenty of balls in play for an A’s team that owns a .288 AVG (ranks 4th), .351 wOBA (11th), and .324 BABIP (4th) against RHP sinkers and four-seamers. And, as usual, it’s worth pointing out how poor the Angels’ bullpen is. They’ve been somewhat improved lately, but, over the last two weeks, “somewhat improved” has still resulted in a 6.47 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, and .273 opp AVG. The weather at Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) is also going to favor the bats once again with low-80s temps and 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.

Favorite ATH Bats: Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bat: Shea Langeliers/Nick Kurtz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Every hitter in the confirmed Blue Jays lineup has a <10% pOwn%. I find that somewhat surprising, but if Toronto does end up being that low-owned, they look like an enticing leverage stack. Their early-season struggles at the plate have begun to disappear, and they have firmly been a top-10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks: .274 AVG (6th), .795 OPS (6th), .346 wOBA (6th), .186 ISO (7th), and 127 wRC+ (5th).

Randy Vasquez has pitched to a respectable 3.45 ERA over 44.1 IP this season, but he has been very fortunate to hit that mark, considering both his xERA (5.61) and xFIP (5.95) are over two runs higher than his surface ERA. Vasquez isn’t missing many bats with just an 11.7% kRate and 6.3% SwStr%, and it’s never a good thing when a pitcher’s walk rate (Vasquez: 13.3% BB%) is higher than their strikeout rate. The Padres’ bullpen has also been in a bit of a freefall lately with a 7.12 ERA, 4.73 xFIP (5th worst), 1.58 WHIP, and 1.78 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks. It is a fairly well-rested bullpen as the Padres had the day off on Monday and only one Padres reliever (Wandy Peralta, 18 pitches) was used in yesterday’s game. But the point still stands that it’s been a struggling relief unit that could be tasked with covering four-plus innings today, as Vasquez often has issues pitching more than five innings. With weather causing issues in a couple of spots on this slate and some of the more talented offenses drawing tricky pitching matchups, this Blue Jays offense does have some real appeal, especially at low expected ownership.

Favorite TOR Bats: Daulton Varsho, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette

Bargain Bat: Addison Barger

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), ARI

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

SS Bo Bichette, TOR vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

3B Ryan McMahon, COL vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), NYY

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

3B Miguel Andujar, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Matthew Lugo, LAA vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

3B Addison Barger, TOR vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Eugenio Suarez MORE than 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Carlos Narvaez MORE than 0.5 Total Bases 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!