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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another huge and hectic slate rolls around this Tuesday evening! On DraftKings, you’ll be looking at an 11-game main slate, while over on FanDuel, you’ll have a 10-game slate. The only difference is the inclusion of the CLE at MIN game on DK. Those teams are scheduled to finish a suspended game from yesterday, which only got into the fourth inning, before playing a game as scheduled later on in the evening, which is why FanDuel has elected to exclude it from their main slate. Poor weather will once again threaten that game, so there is a real possibility they can’t even play it to begin with -- more on that in the weather section below. (Update: CLE at MIN has indeed been postponed.)

Pitching is pretty decent today, albeit a little top-heavy. Coors Field is in play once again, and there are quite a few non-Coors offenses that are in promising spots. Just make sure to pay attention to the weather for the aforementioned CLE/MIN matchup (DK main slate only) and the SEA/CWS game, as there is some legit postponement concern there as well. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/20 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU at TB (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): More excellent hitting weather here again with temps in the low-80s, 10-15 mph winds OUT to center, and humidity levels around 60%.

• TEX at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): 60 degrees with 10 mph winds IN from left/center.

• CLE at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): > DK Main Slate Only < Rain is around pretty much all day and into the evening. It’s not exactly a downpour at any point, but I can’t imagine the field conditions are going to be anywhere close to ideal. Temps are also in the 40s with winds around 15 mph (blowing IN from left). For the players’ and fans’ sake, this game should probably be PPD. We’ll keep an eye out for a PPD announcement and, for the time being, no CLE/MIN players will be included in this newsletter.

  Update: CLE at MIN has been postponed.

• SEA at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Off-and-on rain in the afternoon and into the evening. Skies clear up later in the night, so it’s possible that they get this game in with a lengthy late start, but, like Minneapolis, it’s cold (mid-40s) and windy (15-20 mph left-to-right), so pretty miserable weather all around. There is a chance they end up playing, but I’ll be excluding players from this game in the newsletter due to the current PPD risk.

• DET at STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain should be well out of the area by first pitch. Around 70 degrees with 10+ mph winds OUT to right.

• PHI at COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): 10-20 mph winds, mostly left-to-right, a bit IN from left.

• LAA at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Low-80s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11k | at STL

Pitching is not overly thin on this slate, but there are valid concerns with nearly every SP out there. Most are aware that Tarik Skubal is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball right now, but the DFS dilemma is going to be “is he worth the $11k+ price tag?” You rarely see the best of aces crack the $11k threshold, and it does put a major strain on what sort of bats you can fit into lineups with a pitcher this expensive. That said, no other arm has the same upside as Skubal, so that’s going to at least make him tough to knock out of consideration. Across his nine starts and 54.0 IP, the reigning AL Cy Young award winner has notched a 2.67 ERA, 2.20 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 33.6% kRate, 18.9% SwStr%, and 2.8% BB%. That swinging strike rate is nuts, as is his 71:6 K:BB ratio on the season. To no real surprise, Skubal leads all MLB starters with a 128 Pitching+ rating, which takes into account both a pitcher’s “stuff” and his ability to control the strike zone.

Skubal will be tasked with slowing down a St. Louis team that is rolling with some serious momentum right now and has a 13-2 record over their previous 15 games. However, they haven’t necessarily been mashing lefties in that stretch dating back to May 4th. Across 211 plate appearances versus LHPs (since May 4th), the Cards have a .233 AVG, .686 OPS, .303 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and 21.3% kRate. Now, those certainly aren’t *bad* numbers, but relatively “middle-of-the-road” across the board. If you can find a cheap stack or several affordable value batters (either one-offs or mini stacks) that you’re comfortable with, Skubal could certainly end up being an optimal play -- he has cracked the perfect lineup in six of his last seven starts.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k | at COL

The Phillies have another quality lefty going on the mound in Coors Field tonight, so it looks like we’ll go against the conventional “don’t play Coors Field pitchers” mindset once again. We maybe didn’t get the best out of LHP Cristopher Sanchez in a “no decision” yesterday, but he still turned in a quality start with a 6.0 IP | 5 H | 0 BB | 3 ER | 7 K pitching line, which was good for 18.9 DKFP/34 FDFP, and it could’ve been better with the win bonus but the Phillies bats didn’t get rolling until the later innings. But focusing on Luzardo, he rolls into start number ten of the season with a sharp 2.00 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 26.0% kRate, and 13.7% SwStr%. Luzardo has displayed excellent command and is 6th among all MLB starters (min. 30 IP) with a 113 Location+ rating.

To hammer on the same point as yesterday with Sanchez, yes, the Rockies are more productive at home -- as to be expected -- but they still haven’t done much damage against lefties at Coors Field. Across 470 PA vs. LHPs at home this season, Colorado has put up a .204 AVG, .276 wOBA, 60 wRC+, and an MLB-high 28.1% kRate. And, aside from a slight dip in kRate, all of those numbers get worse if we only look at their home splits versus LHPs over the last month -- .194 AVG, .266 wOBA, 54 wRC+, and 26.2% kRate. The Phillies (-305 ML) are once again the heaviest favorites of the day and, assuming their bats get rolling a bit earlier than yesterday, Luzardo should be very likely to position himself to snag the win bonus. Also, I’d say Luzardo is more in play on DraftKings than FanDuel. Over on FD, it will generally make more sense to find the extra $400 to get up to Skubal ($11k), but there is over a $2,000 salary discrepancy between Luzardo and Skubal on DK.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. TEX

The very bottom end of pitcher pricing features some super dicey arms, so we won’t be dipping too low for the value arm spotlight. Will Warren gets the nod here and there is a lot to like about his recent level of play. While Warren’s 4.26 ERA over his last five starts doesn’t seem remarkable, it has been backed up by a significantly better 2.62 xFIP alongside a stellar 30.4% kRate. Warren’s 3.18 xFIP on the season (nine starts, 41.0 IP) is also a great number and is only bested by Skubal, Yamamoto, and Logan Henderson (across only two starts) among pitchers on this slate. Warren has also kept the ball on the ground quite a bit with a 48.5% GB% L30Days, which is a plus in this hitter-friendly ballpark.

The Rangers’ offense has found a bit of momentum lately, but they’re playing without a couple of their better hitters, with Corey Seager and Evan Carter both on the IL. The Rangers have also been the fifth-worst road offense in MLB this season, averaging only 3.29 runs/gm away. Texas ranks 22nd in wOBA versus Warren’s top three pitches (four-seamer, sweeper, sinker). So, while the Rangers may not be an overly strikeout-prone team (20.6% kRate vs. RHPs, 10th lowest), this is a fairly solid spot for Warren to find some success. The Yankees (-218 ML) are also heavily favored, and the sportsbooks are giving Warren some major respect as they are pinning the Rangers with just a 3.6 implied run total tonight -- second-lowest on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ARI

Logan Henderson (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BAL (Better FanDuel value)

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | at TOR

Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

The Yankees at home versus a subpar lefty? Yes, please. This lineup has mashed lefties throughout the season, but they’ve turned it up several notches at home. Here are the numbers for NYY vs. LHPs at home: .299 AVG, 1.007 OPS, .423 wOBA, .294 ISO, 185 wRC+, and 18.3% HR/FB Rate (Yankees rank 1st in each of those categories). In those same splits (home vs. LHPs), the Yankees are hitting .381 with a 1.307 OPS and 271 wRC+ when they have runners in scoring position. Crazy stuff.

We can all agree that Patrick Corbin has exceeded expectations this year, and he has yet to give up more than 3 ER in any start this season. However, his 3.35 ERA is backed up by a 4.44 xFIP, which suggests some regression is due, and he has benefited from a lower .278 BABIP (versus a career .317 BABIP). Corbin has featured the slider, sinker, and cutter as his three most-used pitches this season. It’s perhaps not the most ideal pitch mix for the Yankees, but they still grade out well against that pitch mix with a .340 wOBA (ranks 7th) and .200 ISO (4th). There also isn’t any reason to shy away from the lefty bats in the Yankees lineup as Corbin has shown poor reverse splits this season, allowing a .371 wOBA and .258 ISO to LHBs. There is also some pretty extensive BvP success to reference here for NYY -- in 141 PA versus Corbin, the current Yankees’ roster has posted a .296 AVG, .386 wOBA, and 14.2% kRate. Corbin will be backed up by a fairly middling Rangers’ bullpen as well.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt

Bargain Bat: DJ LeMahieu

Athletics vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

The A’s offense has been in a short-term funk recently, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism surrounding their bats tonight. This game in Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) features some excellent hitting conditions (low-80s to start with winds blowing out) and the 10.5 over/under is just a half-run lower than the Coors Field game. The A’s will step into the batter’s box against a contact pitcher in Kyle Hendricks, who owns a lackluster 5.18 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, 14.5% kRate, 6.4% SwStr%, and 80 Stuff+ rating this season. Hendricks relies on soft contact and some BABIP luck (which he has received plenty of this season with a .230 opp BABIP), but he has still posted a 1.51 HR/9 Rate this season along with a high 9.3% Barrel%. When looking at his home/road splits, Hendricks’ ERA has nearly doubled when he has pitched on the road this year as well. And, we can’t forget, once Hendricks is retired for the evening, he’ll be backed up by a bullpen that is not only one of the worst in baseball (6.92 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .298 opp AVG, 1.82 HR/9 Rate) but may be somewhat taxed after combining for nearly 200 pitches over the last three days.

Favorite ATH Bats: Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler

Bargain Bat: Shea Langeliers

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

8-of-9 hitters in the confirmed Astros lineup have a ≤ 11% pOwn%. Houston’s offense has been fairly stagnant this season, but they have been more of an above-average offense of late, particularly against righties. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Astros have a .743 OPS (ranks 12th), .332 wOBA (12th), 116 wRC+ (10th), and 17.6% kRate (6th lowest). And, I’d be lying if I said the weather down in Tampa Bay wasn’t a big deciding factor in spotlighting this Astros team. It’s going to be in the 80s to start with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field with decently high humidity. That is all three ingredients you need for favorable hitting conditions.

Getting into the pitching matchup, outside of a low walk rate (4.6%), there is nothing special about the season that Zack Littell is putting together -- 4.31 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 14.8% kRate, 8.5% SwStr%, and 85 Stuff+ rating. He has also given up plenty of bombs, with a 2.15 HR/9 Rate, and has allowed a major 13.8% Barrel% (13 barrels L30Days, which is bottom 5th percentile among pitchers). The Rays’ bullpen has accounted for a 4.77 xFIP L2Weeks (5th worst) as well as a 17.6% kRate (2nd lowest). So, while this Astros offense has not been great in the power/home run department, they should be able to put the ball in play throughout this game, and, with all factors in mind, they should be able to mash multiple home runs as well. The most expensive hitter in the lineup is also only $4k on DraftKings and $3.2k on FanDuel, so if you’re gunning after a high-end pitcher or some Coors Field bats, this is a nice, affordable stack to pair with those approaches.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker

Bargain Bat: Victor Caratini

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Logan Henderson (RHP), MIL

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Dalton Varsho, TOR vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Jake Meyers, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL vs. Logan Henderson (RHP), MIL

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF/SS Jose Caballero, TB vs. Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

2B Luis Urias, ATH vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Matthew Lugo, LAA vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!