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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another loaded MLB Friday awaits with a dozen games loaded onto the main slate ticket! This slate strikes a nice balance between pitching and hitting/stacks, so it should be a fun one to build for. There are also no glaring weather issues today, which is always welcomed. There is plenty to dive into so let’s get right to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/2 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC at BAL (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): There is a chance for some light rain in the middle innings, but they could probably play through it. Not a major concern. Temps around 80 degrees at first pitch.

• TB at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light rain is possible, but not likely. 80 degrees with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

• MIN at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

• LAD at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): There is currently a severe storm system moving across the midwest and parts of the southeast. The expectation is that it will stay north of ATL and avoid causing any trouble for this game, but it will be worth checking the radar closer to first pitch.

• HOU at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cold temps in the 40s with 5-10 mph winds, mostly blowing OUT to right.

• NYM at STL (8:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some light/moderate rain could move through in the middle/later innings. Nothing too concerning, but a delay is at least on the table here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | at LAA

We’ve got several aces and other top-of-the-rotation arms to choose from today, and a strong case can be made for just about every one of ‘em. Though he’ll cost a five-figure premium, Tarik Skubal sets up as an elite option. The reigning unanimous AL Cy Young winner is off to another excellent start, rocking a 2.34 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 28.8% kRate, 16.3% SwStr%, and 3.6% BB% through his six starts. Skubal leads all MLB starts (min. 20 IP) with a 128 Pitching+ rating, which supports the clear fact that not only have Skubal’s pitches been nasty, but his command has been elite as well.

The Angels have the second-fewest plate appearances (163) against LHPs this season so it’s perhaps not the best sample size but, regardless, the results have not been great. Against LHPs, the Angels are hitting for a .204 AVG (ranks 27th) with a .583 OPS (27th), .254 wOBA (29th), 59 wRC+ (29th), and 28.2% kRate (2nd highest). This is a very righty-heavy lineup but Skubal should still have no issues posting a dominant performance tonight as the Tigers (-205 ML) step in as heavy road favorites.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | at CWS

Valdez has had a couple of lackluster outings this season, but if anything, that has knocked a good chunk off of his DFS price points as he heads into this enticing matchup versus the White Sox. Valdez’s 4.00 ERA is backed up by a slightly better 3.69 xFIP. His kRate is down to 20.9% this season, which is Valdez’s lowest mark since the 2019 season when he was still mostly working as a reliever. He has faced a few teams that don’t strike out a ton versus lefties, so that could partially be to blame for the depressed kRate -- over his last 20 MLB starts, Valdez has put up a 26.5% kRate, so he’s likely due for some positive regression in that department. He ranks 15th among all MLB pitchers (min. 20 IP) with a 109 Stuff+ rating and is 18th with an overall 113 Pitching+ rating, so he’s still among the more talented starters in the game.

Of course, getting the White Sox draw is always a major plus. The White Sox may not strike out at an overly high rate (21.7% kRate vs. LHPs), but they rank at or near the bottom in every other major offensive metric. Across 276 PA vs. LHPs, Chicago owns a .200 AVG, .569 OPS, .254 wOBA, and 61 wRC+. The Astros (-250 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, and the mid-40s temps in Chicago this evening should be a benefit for the pitchers. So, all in all, it should be a productive night on the mound for Valdez.

Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | at MIA

We’ve got another $4,000 min-priced pitcher to consider as an SP2 option over on DraftKings. On FanDuel (and as your SP1 on DK), you will likely want to take one of the many elite arms on the slate, but Gunnar Hoglund (great name, btw) could still fall into the pool for aggressive hitter-heavy lineup builds [on FanDuel]. Hoglund is a highly regarded prospect who will be making his MLB debut. He checks in as the No. 3 prospect in the A’s farm system (and is their top pitching prospect), and No. 89 overall MLB prospect, per FanGraphs. Hoglund has put up some nice numbers across his six starts (29.2 IP) in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 2.43 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, .226 opp AVG, 26.1% kRate, and 6.1% BB%. He has posted those numbers in the typically hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which makes them a bit more impressive. Hoglund is three years removed from Tommy John surgery and will have a chance to stick in the A’s rotation with some strong outings.

It’s a pretty decent spot for Hoglund to make his MLB debut as the Marlins currently rank bottom 10 versus RHPs in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Miami has also put up a 23.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season, which is the 5th highest mark in baseball. The A’s (-135 ML) will be favored to win this game, and the hope is that we can get five or six solid innings out of Hoglund in his debut with a handful of strikeouts along the way.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

Yoshinubo Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.5k | at ATL

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. COL

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | at TEX

Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.1k | at STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

O’s bats have been strong versus RHPs with a .202 ISO and 126 wRC+ L2Weeks. Wacha is due for some regression based on his 3.38 ERA backed up by a less impressive 4.34 xFIP, and he’s allowing a 24.1% LineDrive% over the last month. Camden Yards also ranks as the #1 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, and the Orioles have been at their best at home, averaging 4.79 runs/gm (vs. 3.31 runs/gm away). Also, if you’re a BvP believer, across 115 plate appearances versus the current O’s roster, Wacha has allowed a .294 AVG, .394 wOBA, and .528 xSLG.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bat: Ryan Mountcastle

New York Yankees vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

The Yankees have been the #1 home offense this season (6.40 runs/gm) and they’ve ranked 5th or better versus RHPs L2Weeks in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Pepiot is giving up plenty of power to both sides of the plate with a .381 wOBA/.257 ISO to RHBs and a .345 wOBA/.288 ISO to LHBs. He has already allowed eight HRs this season (34.0 IP) resulting in a lofty 2.12 HR/9 Rate. Pepiot averages 20.7% less FPPG away and is in the bottom 15th percentile of pitchers in barreled balls allowed L30Days.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt

Bargain Bat: Trent Grisham

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

This low-owned stack worked out nicely yesterday, and I’m willing to go back to the well for some leverage tonight. Every hitter in the projected Tigers lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. Detroit has been better against lefty pitching this season,n but they still rank 9th with a 108 wRC+ vs. RHPs. Over the last week, they have accounted for an .813 OPS, .357 wOBA, .214 ISO, and 135 wRC+. Soriano has his moments but is overall a pretty average starting pitcher who brings a 4.50 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, and 17.9% kRate into his seventh start of the season. Soriano relied heavily on groundball outs (63.7% GB%); however, the Tigers have posted the lowest groundball rate in baseball over the last week with a 31.0% GB%. So this is setting up as a poor matchup for Soriano, especially if he is unable to rack up some Ks against the normally strikeout-prone Tigers lineup. And, as usual, getting some at-bats against the Angels’ awful bullpen is always a plus.

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Green, Kerry Carpenter, Zach McKinstry

Bargain Bat: Javier Baez/Andy Ibanez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Teoscar Hernandez, LAD vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

2B/3B Alex Bregman, BOS vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

3B/SS Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

OF Zach McKinstry, DET vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Trent Grisham, NYY vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Maikel Garcia, KC vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

3B/OF Javier Baez, DET vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Andy Pages, LAD vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Andy Ibanez, DET vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B Vinny Pasquantino, KC vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today! As usual, Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!