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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A new week of MLB action gets underway with a nine-game Monday main slate! Pitching is fairly weak for a slate of this size, which means that more hitters/stacks will land in promising matchups. Some troubling weather will threaten one or two games, specifically the Guardians/Twins and Tigers/Cardinals matchups -- more on that below. Let’s see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle because this one’s sure to get tricky! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/19 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU at TB (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-80s temps, 10 mph winds OUT to right, and 60-70% humidity. Excellent hitting conditions.

• CLE at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain moves in around first pitch, perhaps a bit after, with more severe storms expected to arrive as the evening goes on. Unless something drastic changes in the forecast (or they move this game up by two or three hours), the outlook here does not look promising. I think we could see a PPD here, or the game time gets moved up drastically, in which case CLE/MIN players would become ineligible from the main slate anyway. So, for the purposes of this newsletter, I will not be including any players from this game.

• SEA at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cooler temps in the 50s with 15 mph winds, mostly blowing left-to-right, a bit OUT to right.

• DET at STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): This game should start dry and on time, but moderate-to-heavy rain is currently looking to move in during the middle-to-later innings and is around through the night. So it’s possible we don’t get a full nine innings in here, but we’ll need to check this forecast closer to first pitch to have a better idea of how everything will play out. For now, stay cautious with any Tigers/Cardinals.

• PHI at COL (8:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): A few showers around but nothing overly heavy or extensive. So low-end chance for a brief late start or in-game delay, and that’s about it. 10-15 mph winds, mostly left-to-right, a bit IN from right.

• LAA at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Near 80 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | at KC

Two of the better starters on the slate face one another in this matchup between a pair of lefties in Kris Bubic and Robbie Ray. Bubic was a pretty underwhelming starter over his first three-plus seasons in the big leagues. The Royals moved Bubic to a reliever role last season, where he ended up being very effective (2.67 ERA, 2.04 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 32.2% kRate). He has seemingly parlayed that 2024 success as a reliever into some excellent results, now back in a full-time starting role this year. Through nine starts and 54.1 IP this season, Bubic has put up a stellar 1.66 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 25.6% kRate, and 14.8% SwStr% -- his ERA, WHIP, and SwStr% lead all pitchers on today’s slate. The schedule has been pretty generous to Bubic, but there is reason to be optimistic about his outlook this evening.

The Giants have generally been a decent offense as of late, but this isn’t exactly a matchup they should thrive in. 95% of Bubic’s pitch mix has featured the four-seamer, sweeper, changeup, and slider. Against that pitch mix from LHPs, the Giants have mustered just a .197 AVG (ranks 28th), .264 wOBA (26th), 33.8% HardHit% (5th lowest), and 28.2% kRate (5th highest). Bubic has also shown some positive reverse splits, meaning he has been more effective against RHBs than LHBs. Most of the actual hitting numbers are pretty even for Bubic on both sides of the plate, but his strikeout rate has sat at 27.4% versus RHBs as opposed to 19.6% versus LHBs. This is notable because it’s likely that the Giants roll out eight right-handed hitters tonight with Jung Hoo Lee presumably being the only lefty bat in the lineup. So, overall, this is a great spot for Bubic, even at his elevated price points.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k | at COL

You know it’s an “interesting” day for pitching when a Coors Field arm gets a spotlight. Outside of a non-severe injury-shortened outing against the Mets on April 22nd, Cristopher Sanchez has been good-to-great in all of his remaining seven starts. He has allowed more than two earned runs in only one start this season, and that came in a matchup with the Dodgers, which still ended up being a solid outing for Sanchez (5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 ER, 9 K). Overall, Sanchez has pitched to a 2.91 ERA, a slate-best 3.12 xFIP, 28.4% kRate, and 13.3% SwStr% this season (43.1 IP). He has also induced plenty of groundballs with a 56.4% GB% this season -- keeping the ball on the ground is especially handy when a pitcher draws the tough task of making a Coors Field start.

We have routinely targeted the Rockies with pitching whenever they go on the road, and while it doesn’t work out 100% of the time, it certainly proves to be a successful strategy more times than not. They’re less “attackable” at home, but they really have not done much against LHPs, even in the very hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Against LHPs at home this season, Colorado has posted a .228 AVG, .669 OPS, .297 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and 26.1% kRate. The main rub on Sanchez has been his tendency not to be at his best on the road. Discounting the early exit in New York, he has only made two full road starts this season, but he was effective in both of those games. So, perhaps he continues that trend this evening. It’s very difficult for anyone to pitch a super clean game at Coors Field, but Sanchez does set up well today, and it doesn’t hurt that there will be some 10-15 mph winds blowing in (at times) at Coors tonight. The Phillies (-258 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate, so we have to like Sanchez’s chances of snagging the win bonus.

JT Ginn (RHP), ATH | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | vs. LAA

As discussed, pitching isn’t exactly a strength on this slate, and some poor weather in a couple of spots may also end up knocking some of the SP options out of consideration. But if there is one cheap arm I’d be semi-comfortable rolling out, it’s probably going to be JT Ginn. This will only be Ginn’s fourth start of the season, so the sample size isn’t great. But his 4.61 ERA is backed up by a much stronger 3.50 xFIP, which indicates he’s been the victim of some bad luck, and he has put up a rock-solid 23.8% kRate along with a high 58.5% Groundball%. Ginn also smoked the competition across his three Triple-A starts this year, pitching to a microscopic 1.26 ERA, 1.75 xFIP, and .170 opp AVG with an electric 47.1% kRate!

The Angels are riding high following a SWEEP of the Dodgers, but we’ll see if they come back down to earth a bit tonight. They have ranked 8th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks, but they have also posted a 27.5% kRate (2nd highest) in that span. Mike Trout is still on the IL, but there have been several highly productive Angels hitters who have stepped up lately. But if those guys regress even slightly, this turns into a not-so-scary lineup that has multiple holes in it. JT Ginn has five pitches in his arsenal, but he primarily throws either the sinker (58.6% USG%) or the slider (23.4% USG%). The Angels have posted the 3rd highest kRate versus that pitch mix and the 4th highest Whiff%. I do believe the Angels will get some hits and perhaps a few runs on Ginn this evening, but as long as he doesn’t get absolutely shelled, the strikeouts should be there for Ginn. A 20 DKFP/35 FDFP type of result is well within the realm of possibilities for him in this spot. He will be most appealing as an SP2 option over on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | vs. KC

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.7k | at CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

The Dodgers’ pitching staff is starting to fill up the IL more and more as each week passes by. They’ll be turning to second-year right-hander Landon Knack to try to slow down a hot D-Backs offense. Knack has not been overly sharp across his 18.1 IP, pitching to a 5.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. His 3.73 xFIP suggests he has been the victim of some poor luck, but Knack’s 5.00 xERA is also right around his actual ERA, so that’s a bit of a wash on his “expected” ERA numbers. Knack has also been getting his extremely hard, with an average exit velo of 95.1 mph L30Days, which ranks him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers.

The D-Backs have been raking against righties lately. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting .294 (ranks 3rd) with an .894 OPS (1st), .389 wOBA (1st), .225 ISO (1st), and 147 wRC+ (1st) while posting a 17.2% kRate (3rd lowest). They also set up well versus Knack, who throws either the four-seam fastball or changeup on nearly 75% of his pitches. Versus that pitch mix, the D-Backs are 2nd in MLB with a .383 wOBA and have the 6th lowest kRate at 18.4%. The Dodgers’ pitching woes have not been limited to the starting rotation -- their bullpen has underwhelmed lately (L2Weeks: 4.88 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .276 opp AVG, 1.63 HR/9 Rate) and has thrown quite a few pitches over the last couple of days. They also recently placed one of their top relievers, Kirby Yates, on the IL with a hamstring injury. Expect plenty of offense in the NL West showdown tonight.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Pavin Smith

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

Reminder: Keep an eye on weather here. If it’s looking like this could be a rain-shortened game, then this stack would clearly carry much less appeal.

The Cardinals have been on a surge in recent weeks with a 12-2 record over their last 14 games. Since that streak began back on May 4th, St. Louis is hitting an MLB-best .311 versus RHPs alongside an .846 OPS, .372 wOBA, and 139 wRC+.

It’s looking like the Tigers will be deploying RHP Keider Montero on the mound tonight. Across his 25.0 IP, Montero has provided uninspiring results with a 4.68 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 16.5% kRate, and 10.1% BB%. He has also allowed five home runs, which works out to a lofty 1.80 HR/9 Rate. The Tigers’ bullpen has been pretty mid-pack recently, and they’ve also given up their fair share of home runs with a 1.51 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks (6th highest). The Cardinals return home from a nine-game road trip tonight, and they’ve been a bit more potent offensively at home this season, so it’s a nice spot for a hot team to keep things rolling. But, once again, track the weather here!

Favorite STL Bats: Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan

Bargain Bat: Masyn Winn/Alec Burleson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

Castillo carries a 21% pOwn% on DraftKings and 32% pOwn% on FanDuel, so there would be some nice leverage to be had by stacking up a few White Sox bats -- all of which check in with < 10% pOwn% (and most are under 5% pOwn%). The home/road splits are fairly well documented for Luis Castillo across his career, and, while he has only made three road starts (15.1 IP) so far this season, those splits are rearing their ugly head early on. Across those three road starts, Castillo has mustered a 5.87 ERA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.89 WHIP, .323 opp AVG, .370 opp wOBA, and 13.5% kRate. It’s truly night and day between Castillo's home and road results.

I can’t blow smoke and pretend the White Sox offense has been particularly good as a whole, but there have been a few hitters who are currently riding a pretty solid stretch of success at the plate. The White Sox have also been more productive at home, where they’ve averaged 3.90 runs/gm (versus 2.88 runs/gm on the road). It won’t take a full four or five-man White Sox stack to separate your lineups today, but a two or three-man mini-CWS stack may very well provide some surprisingly nice results. Except for Luis Robert Jr., every one of these White Sox bats is dirt cheap as well.

Favorite CWS Bats: Miguel Vargas, Luis Robert Jr., Chase Meidroth

Bargain Bat: Tim Elko

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

C Ivan Herrera, STL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

C Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Pavin Smith, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

1B Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B/3B Miguel Vargas, CWS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

1B Tim Elko, CWS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS Chase Meidroth, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

2B Hyeseong Kim, LAD | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

2B Luis Urias, ATH | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

C Dalton Rushing, LAD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), LAA

1B Rowdy Tellez, SEA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Matthew Lugo, LAA | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Jose Caballero MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Max Muncy MORE than 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!