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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We are loaded up with a dozen games for this Friday's main slate! At first glance, I’d say the advantage goes in the direction of pitching as there is a ton of excellent arm talent on this slate, ranging from rock-solid middle-of-the-rotation guys to certified aces. But, with 24 teams on deck, there are still bound to be plenty of offenses that break through this evening. Outside of perhaps one or two spots, the weather should be mostly cooperative today. There is much to unpack for this slate, so we’ll jump right into the belly of the beast. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/16 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Note: I’m writing today’s newsletter earlier than usual, and I am still no meteorologist, so there is a bit more guesswork involved in a couple of these forecasts.

• WAS at BAL (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): A wide stretch of storms is approaching the area today and looks to arrive around gametime. Some sort of delay (more likely a late start) seems like a strong possibility here, but current expectations are that they’ll eventually get this game in. Check up on this forecast closer to first pitch before locking in any WAS/BAL players.

• NYM at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Some rain in the area, but the worst of it should be clear, or in the process of clearing, by first pitch. Chance of a delay, but PPD risk is not very high.

• ATL at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): 70 degrees with light winds OUT to left.

• STL at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds OUT to right/center. Quality conditions for hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | vs. ATL

This slate is loaded with high-end pitching, and you can build a strong case for each of the top eight or nine most expensive pitchers on this slate. We’ll start at the very top with Garrett Crochet, who is riding a strong start to his 2025 campaign, which has him near the top of the current AL Cy Young betting market. Over his nine starts (56.0 IP), Crochet has pitched to a 1.93 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 28.9% kRate, and 13.4% SwStr%. His 111 Stuff+ rating checks in at 7th among all MLB pitchers (min. 30 IP).

Crochet faces off with a Braves offense that is having some major struggles against southpaw pitching. Across 165 plate appearances versus LHPs L2Weeks, the Braves have managed a meager .200 AVG (ranks 27th), .574 OPS (26th), .251 wOBA (28th), 55 wRC+ (28th), and 23.0% kRate (13th highest). And, as someone who watches nearly every Braves game, I can confidently say that most of those poor offensive numbers came against left-handed pitchers who are nowhere near the talent level of Crochet. Crochet also throws almost exclusively fastballs (four-seamer, cutter, sinker), which make up over 85% of his pitches thrown this season. Against LHP fastballs, Atlanta has posted just a .210 AVG (3rd lowest) and .278 wOBA (4th lowest). This could be a solid lefty-vs-lefty pitching duel with Chris Sale operating as Crochet’s counterpart. But, if the Braves continue to be bewildered by lefty pitching, Crochet should cruise to another great outing this evening.

Corbin Burnes (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. COL

Burnes has had a tough schedule up to this point, so he should be welcoming the road Rockies with open arms. The D-Backs are absurd -410 ML favorites today, which are the sort of odds you very, very rarely see in MLB, or in professional team sports in general. While walks have been an issue for Burnes lately, he has buckled down and pitched to a 0.98 ERA and .188 opp AVG over his last three starts. Burnes’ 19.8% kRate on the season hasn’t been great, but, again, most of the teams he has gone up against are inside the top half in lowest kRate versus RHPs.

While they’ve had a couple of nine-run games over the last week (both at home in Coors Field), the “road Rockies” continue to be the best matchup a pitcher could ask for. Against RHPs on the road this season, Colorado has hit for a .193 AVG, .531 OPS, .241 wOBA, 49 wRC+, and 27.3% kRate -- those numbers rank them dead last in each category. It’s tough not to like Burnes in this spot, and, with an absolutely loaded batch of pitchers, his ownership may not get too high today.

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k | at MIA

This is probably a slate where you’re going to want to pay up for pitching, but if you’re in search of a more affordable arm (primarily as an SP2 on DraftKings), Taj Bradley may be the guy to target. Bradley has had a rough go lately. Over his last five starts, he has acquired a 4.55 ERA, 5.18 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and has put up an awful 11.4% kRate next to a 10.6% BB%. A couple of matchups with the Yankees and a road game versus the D-Backs in that span could be to blame for some of those poor numbers, but anyway you slice it, things haven’t been pretty for Bradley. He did jump out to a really nice start to the season -- over his first three starts, Bradley recorded a 3.71 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, .197 opp AVG, and 30.9% kRate. Unless there is some unreported injury issue going on, Bradley very clearly has the stuff to be a high-quality pitcher.

Bradley draws a pretty strong matchup against the Marlins this evening. While they do occasionally pop off for a productive game, the Marlins’ offense is firmly a “below average” squad by most offensive metrics. Against RHPs L2Weeks, Miami has put up a .238 AVG (ranks 19th), .715 OPS (16th), .313 wOBA (17th), 97 wRC+ (19th), and 24.1% kRate (7th highest). They have shown a bit more power at the plate of late, but the tradeoff for bigger hits has been a higher strikeout rate. Bradley’s pitch mix of four-seamer, split-finger, cutter, and curveball should also play well in this matchup. Against that pitch mix (vs. RHPs) this season, Miami has the 3rd lowest AVG, 3rd lowest wOBA, 4th highest Whiff%, and 6th lowest HardHit%. So, while his recent form does instill some hesitation, this does set up as a spot for Bradley to get the train back on the tracks and regain some of that form that he displayed over his first few outings of the season.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.5k | vs. HOU

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ATH

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | at MIL

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. STL

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.6k | at BOS

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k | at BAL (Monitor weather)

Dustin May (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Kansas City Royals vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

After a very slow start offensively, the Royals are starting to get things going at the plate. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Royals rank 11th in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while checking in at 3rd with a .199 ISO. They’ve also snagged the 4th most stolen bases and posted the lowest kRate (15.6%) in MLB during that stretch. Andre Pallante is capable of a solid outing, but he has been knocked around over his last five starts where he has pitched to a 5.67 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .309 opp AVG, .382 opp wOBA, 1.70 HR/9 Rate, and 12.6% kRate. Arguably, the best hitting conditions on this huge slate reside in Kansas City this evening, where temps will be around 80 degrees with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right/center. The one catch here is the fact that the Cardinals' bullpen has been lights out lately, pitching to an MLB-best 1.62 ERA L2Weeks. But if the Royals can jump out to a big lead early against Pallante, St. Louis will generally avoid using their top BP arms.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino

Bargain Bat: Jonathan India

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

The Dodgers are getting close to just being an “obligatory stack” recommendation, as there probably isn’t much need to point them out as a top stack on any given slate. But they have been particularly potent in their home ballpark, where they’re averaging an MLB-best 6.62 runs/gm [at home] this season. And they’re coming off of a 19-run thrashing against the A’s last night. Against RHPs at home over the last month (339 PAs), the Dodgers have put up complete video game numbers -- .360 AVG, 1.084 OPS, .461 wOBA, .284 ISO, and 202 wRC+. For reference, Shohei Ohtani is 3rd in MLB with a 191 wRC+ this season. So, in those splits (home vs. RHPs L30Days), the entire Dodgers lineup has performed at a higher level top-to-bottom than Ohtani has on the season, which is pretty wild.

Jack Kochanowicz draws the short straw today as he’ll take the mound versus the Dodgers. Across eight starts, Kochanowicz has come away with some lackluster results: 5.23 ERA, 5.16 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 12.9% kRate, and a 93 Pitching+ rating. He is also bottom 20th percentile L30Days in barreled balls allowed (eight) and average exit velo (90.9 mph), which is not ideal, to say the least. Kochanowicz leans on the sinker (47% USG%), four-seamer (24.3%), and slider (17.1%) as his primary pitches. Versus that pitch mix, the Dodgers have put up a .286 AVG (ranks 2nd) with a .381 wOBA (1st) and .215 ISO (2nd). Behind Kochanowicz is an awful Angels bullpen that has recorded a 9.77 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, .325 opp AVG, and 3.09 HR/9 Rate over the L2Weeks. So, all of this to say, this just doesn’t seem like a spot where a white hot Dodgers lineup will cool off.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Hyeseong Kim (and/or Dalton Rushing if he is starting again)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. TBD, COL

I won’t go into a detailed write-up on the D-Backs stack, but just keep in mind that they’re another strong-looking stack today. It looks like the Rockies will either be rolling out RHP German Marquez, who has been awful, or LHP Carson Palmquist, who would be making his MLB debut.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

Perhaps their ownership numbers creep up later in the day, but currently, every hitter in the projected Padres lineup has a <7% pOwn%. San Diego has been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks, hitting .290 with an .820 OPS, .360 wOBA, 133 wRC+, and 16.2% kRate. Logan Evans is making just his fourth MLB start, and only his second start on the road, tonight. He posted “okay” numbers in Triple-A this season, but things have not gone well for him across his 15.0 IP at the big league level, which has resulted in a 6.60 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .295 opp AVG, and 16.2% kRate. The Mariners' bullpen has been solid throughout the season, but I would not label it one of the league’s best. So, overall, if the Padres are going to be as low-owned as the projections say, they’re going to be a nice leverage stack to target.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Brandon Lockridge

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. TBD, COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

2B/3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

C Ivan Herrera, STL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), SD

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

3B Junior Caminero, TB | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Javier Baez, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

2B/3B Amed Rosario, WAS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

1B Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. TBD, COL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

3B/OF Jonathan India, KC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

SS Trey Sweeney, DET | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

2B Hyeseong Kim, LAD | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

C Dalton Rushing, LAD | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Friday home run parlay time! Reminder, if you have access to regular sportsbooks and feel like tailing, you can likely shop for better odds. On PrizePicks, if this two-pick HR parlay hits, it will return 14x the wager.

Kerry Carpenter MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

James Outman MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!