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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s an all-day baseball affair with games going on from noon ‘til night, which includes a pair of doubleheaders whose ‘game ones’ have already gotten underway at the time of this writing. There is still ample action left for the evening window with nine games on the Wednesday main slate docket! Pitching is a little rocky today; there are a few guys that we can trust toward the top of pricing, but things get pretty dicey fairly quickly after that. On the flip side, we should have more viable hitters/stacks to pick and choose from. Weather shouldn’t be much of a nuisance today, at least for the main slate matchups. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Note: Tomorrow will be a light MLB schedule and, since there are only two games in the evening hours, there won’t be a Thursday newsletter.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/14 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some afternoon rain should mostly be clear by first pitch, but there is still enough rain around to raise some slight concern. They’ll likely stay dry and play without issues, but it’ll be worth tracking closer to gametime. Cool temps around 60 degrees and 10 mph winds mostly right-to-left, a bit IN from right.

• CWS at CIN (7:14 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain is out of the area by first pitch. Low-70s temps with light winds IN from right.

• WAS at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-end chance for a delay with a few scattered showers in the area. Temps near 80 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

• MIA at CHC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds IN from center/right. Slight bump to pitchers at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. PIT

I don’t believe anyone’s champing at the bit to label Clay Holmes an ace, but he’s been among the more reliable starters in MLB this season and carries some very ace-like winning odds today (Mets -310 ML odds, heaviest favorites on the slate). Holmes has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his eight starts and brings an excellent 2.74 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 24.7% kRate, and 53.0% GroundBall% into his ninth outing of the season. Across his three home starts at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field, Holmes’ kRate has jumped to 30.4%, and he has allowed just a .197 opp AVG.

Holmes draws a pristine matchup versus a generally poor Pirates offense. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Pirates are hitting a paltry .198 with a .571 OPS, .262 wOBA, .084 ISO, 62 wRC+, and 20.0% kRate. Aside from the kRate, which isn’t particularly high, everything else about this lineup has been pretty awful. Pittsburgh has also posted the second-highest groundball rate (47.6%) over the last two weeks, which plays into Holmes’ strength as a groundball pitcher (his career GB% sits at 64.8%). These are higher price points than we’re used to shelling out for Holmes, but he should be a safe SP option to roll with today.

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CWS

Lodolo is a pretty volatile option, but he’s found success in a couple of recent starts, and, when he’s on, he brings a very high ceiling to the table. The strikeouts have been way down this season with a 19.3% kRate -- compared to a career 26.1% kRate -- but he is rarely walking guys (3.6% BB%) and he owns a sharp 1.01 WHIP. The one major hangup with Lodolo has to do with his glaringly poor home splits (-71.3% less FPPG). Lodolo owns a 6.75 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, .299 opp AVG, and 14.7% kRate at home this season (16.0 IP). I’d like to chalk that up to “small sample size noise,” but this has been a pretty consistent trend throughout his career with Cincy. Great American Ballpark certainly isn’t a pitcher-friendly environment, but it’s wild that Lodolo has posted such night-and-day results with his home/road splits.

That said, while we haven’t seen it yet this season, Lodolo is capable of having a nice game at home, and it will help that he faces off with the White Sox today. Against LHPs L2Weeks (136 PA), the White Sox have posted a .584 OPS, .070 ISO, 66 wRC+, and 27.9% kRate. There just aren’t many guys in this lineup that have found any real success against lefties this season, and Vegas is pinning them with a low 3.5 implied run total. Lodolo deploys a four-pitch mix -- four-seamer, curveball, sinker, and changeup -- all of which he has thrown at least 20% of the time. Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the White Sox have posted the second-lowest wOBA (.267), second-lowest HardHit% (33.7%), and second-highest strikeout rate (25.0%). I still believe there is something very real about the “Lodolo home splits” trend, but this will be the best matchup he’s drawn at home so far this season, and the Reds are also heavy -238 ML favorites, so we’ll give him a shot to prove himself at GABP today.

Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | at ATL

This is a wild card option, but my Braves just have not been hitting lefty pitching well at all lately, so I won’t be shocked if Mitchell Parker ends up having a decent outing. He had a very strong start to the season, pitching to a 1.39 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and .167 opp AVG over his first five games of the season (32.1 IP) -- he cleared at least 6.0 IP in all five of those outings. Things have since gone south for him, and he heads into tonight with a poor 5.44 xFIP, 13.3% kRate, and 11.2% BB% on the season.

But, getting to the matchup, in 137 plate appearances against LHPs over the last two weeks, Atlanta has posted a .198 AVG, .558 OPS, .242 wOBA, 49 wRC+, and 22.6% kRate. They also did not hit Parker well in a couple of meetings last season, and, across 41 PA versus the current Braves roster, Parker has held them to a .171 AVG and .169 wOBA. There is not a lot of strikeout potential with Parker, he has struggled on the road, and many of his underlying metrics are not pretty. However, I could see him going 6.0+ innings tonight and allowing very little damage, and perhaps he picks up a handful of strikeouts along the way. It’s not a safe pick, but Parker should be well under 10% owned, and the matchup is not as worrisome as some may believe.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ATH

Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $7k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

The Padres have hit righties extremely well in the L2Weeks with a .300 AVG, .838 OPS, and 139 wRC+ with only a 15.9% kRate. We can rest assured that they’ll be putting the ball in play plenty tonight against the soft-tossing, low-strikeout Kyle Hendricks, who brings a 5.30 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 14.2% kRate, 6.8% SwStr%, and an awful 79 Stuff+ rating into his eighth start of 2025. Hendricks’ primary strength is limiting hard contact (top 90th percentile average exit velo L30Days: 85.6 mph), but he has still allowed a high 1.51 HR/9 Rate this season. Hendricks has also gotten quite lucky in the BABIP department, as opposing hitters have just a .231 BABIP against him this season (versus a career .282 opp BABIP for Hendricks), which has led to some low opponent batting averages. But if all of those balls hit in play find some gaps at a higher rate, with one or two clearing the fence, it will be a rough evening for Hendricks. And, we can’t forget, the added benefit of stacking against the Angels is getting some innings against their bullpen, which has put up a 12.00 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, .360 opp AVG, and 3.23 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks. So, even if Hendricks is able to escape relatively unphased across his five-ish innings tonight, there is the possibility (or likelihood) that the Padres get a late-inning offensive surge in.

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Jake Cronenworth

Texas Rangers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

I am already preparing myself for this stack to backfire because, let’s be real, the Rangers have not been a good or reliable offense this season. But, Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies’ bullpen can often be the cure for all offensive woes. Senzatela owns a slate-worst 5.77 ERA, 6.98 xERA, 1.92 WHIP, and 10.3% kRate. And, by pretty much every key pitching metric besides ERA, Senzatela has been worse on the road than he has been at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. By most indications, the Rockies’ bullpen hasn’t been dreadful lately, but it’s still not a good unit by any stretch. The Rangers’ bats have been a bit better in recent weeks, though they are currently without one of their best hitters in Corey Seager (hamstring, 10-day IL). Despite some lackluster offense overall, the Rangers do lead the slate with a 5.2 implied run total. We’ll just have to wait and see if they can capitalize on an excellent pitching matchup.

Favorite TEX Bats: Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Josh Smith (or Adolis Garcia, if Smith is still out)

Bargain Bat: Evan Carter

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

I was a little surprised to see that every hitter in the projected Cubs lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. So, if they are going to be that low-owned today, I’m more than willing to stack them up in this spot. Ryan Weathers is making his 2025 MLB debut after suffering a forearm strain during spring training. In three rehab starts (10.2 IP), he has pitched well -- 1.69 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, and 32.5% kRate. But he is a career 5-plus ERA pitcher who has given up plenty of bombs (1.59 HR/9 Rate) at the big league level. Weathers also threw just 57 pitches in his final rehab start, so he’ll likely have a fairly significant leash on his pitch count today. The Cubs have been excellent against LHPs this season, ranking 3rd with an .838 OPS, 2nd with a .364 wOBA, and 2nd with a 136 wRC+. They have five guys in their usual lineup who are OPS’ing over .940 vs. LHPs this season -- all five with a 159+ wRC+ as well. Once Weathers’ day is done (likely after four-ish innings), the Cubs will face a bottom-10 Marlins bullpen that has put up a 5.84 ERA and 1.52 WHIP L2Weeks.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Moises Ballesteros (and/or Nico Hoerner is Ballesteros is not starting)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shoehi Ohtani, LAD vs. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP), ATH

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Yoshinubo Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

3B Austin Riley, ATL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

2B Jake Cronenworth, SD vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

OF Evan Carter, TEX vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Gavin Lux, CIN vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Bo Bichette, TOR vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

1B Jonathan Aranda, TB vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Jordan Beck, COL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

C Moises Ballesteros, CHC vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA 

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

I’m a little short on time so no picks from me today, but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter! 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!