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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A ten-game main slate hits the docket on Tuesday! With 20 teams in play, we’ll have plenty of viable pitching and hitting/stacks to choose from. Some poor weather looks to affect a few games today, but fortunately, most of those games are sectioned off in the 6 o’clock ET window and not on the main slate. There is plenty to dissect today, so let’s jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/13 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some pretty consistent light rain is expected in NY this evening. It doesn’t look like enough rain to lead to a complete washout, but they will have to play in some less-than-ideal conditions if they want to get this game in. Keep an eye out for any updates here.

• WAS at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some scattered showers in the area, which could lead to a late start or in-game delay. But the chances are fairly low for the latter. Either way, they should get nine innings played tonight. 70 degrees with light winds IN from right.

• MIA at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some rain is approaching Chicago this afternoon, but should be clearing up around first pitch. No major issues expected, but this is another game to monitor closer to gametime.

• LAA at SD (9:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds OUT to right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | at SEA

With so many talented arms priced closer to the mid-range on this slate, this seems like a good time to get exposure to a fairly low-owned Max Fried. He’s been outstanding across his eight starts, pitching to an MLB-best 1.05 ERA (min. 20 IP) and 0.91 WHIP. His 3.57 xFIP does suggest plenty of regression is due, but that’s still a strong mark, and Fried’s 22.6% kRate is right around league average. But his efficiency on the mound has helped him clear seven-plus innings of work on multiple occasions this season, which helps counter some of the lack of K upside.

To the surprise of many, the Mariners have been one of the better offenses in baseball. However, they’ve been considerably more potent against RHPs and own a 123 wRC+ against righties (ranks 2nd) versus a 106 wRC+ against lefties (ranks 11th). Their strikeout rate also climbs to 25.5% against LHPs, and Fried has a deep arsenal of pitches that he can use to keep hitters off balance. While it’s not the largest sample size, in 45 PA versus the current Mariners roster, Fried has held them to a minuscule .095 AVG and .132 wOBA with a 24.4% kRate. T-Mobile Park is one of, if not the, most pitcher-friendly ballparks year-in and year-out, and Fried should continue to roll this evening.

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. LAA

Cease is one of those pitchers who is priced considerably lower than where his actual talent level would usually put him. He had been due for some positive regression (4.91 ERA vs. 3.79 xFIP), and we saw that kick in last Wednesday when he shut down the potent Yankees lineup with a stellar 6.2 IP (89 PC) | 1 H | 2 BB| 1 ER | 9 K pitching line. The strikeout stuff has been there all season with a strong 27.0% kRate and slate-best 14.4% SwStr%. Cease now returns to his home mound, where he tends to be at his best (+45.5% more FPPG).

Cease draws a plus matchup versus an Angels offense that has posted the second-highest kRate (26.6%) against RHPs L2Weeks. They have also put up a 26.4% kRate (3rd highest) versus RHP four-seamers and sliders, which are Cease’s two most utilized pitches. In 66 PA versus the current Angels roster, Cease has held them to a .172 AVG and .274 wOBA with a monster 34.8% kRate. The Padres (-225 ML) are among the heaviest favorites on this slate. We have yet to see Cease string back-to-back strong starts together this season, but I would imagine that will happen tonight.

Ben Brown (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIA

Brown has faced some stiff competition throughout this season, so he should be welcoming a date with the Marlins with open arms. Brown’s 4.95 ERA may not inspire much confidence, but he has pitched better than the ERA would lead you to believe based on his quality 3.55 xFIP. Brown has also been better overall across his last five starts, where he has turned in a 3.65 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 27.1% kRate, and 6.5% BB%.

The Marlins have ranked bottom 10 versus RHPs in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ this season, and their 23.6% kRate is the 5th highest in MLB. Ben Brown throws almost exclusively a two-pitch mix featuring the four-seamer (58.6% USG%) and knuckle curve (38.9% USG%). Against that pitch mix, the Marlins own the 6th lowest HardHit% and 4th highest kRate (25.2%). The Cubs (-265 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the evening, and it’s simply a great spot for Brown to return some value on his modest DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. PIT (Monitor weather)

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. KC

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. WAS

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TB

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

With several talented and affordable options to choose from at pitcher, paying up for a premium offense like the Dodgers won’t be overly difficult. The Dodgers return home from a long 10-game road trip and will be playing in L.A. for the first time this month. They have been the top home offense in baseball, averaging 6.11 runs/gm, and they’ll draw an appealing matchup with Jeffrey Springs, who is a pretty subpar starter. Across his eight starts, Springs has recorded a 4.81 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, and 18.3% kRate. Springs owns a slate-worst 91 Stuff+ rating, suggesting his pitches are much lower in quality compared to any other starter on the slate, and he also allows a high flyball rate (49.2% FB%). The Dodgers have also mashed lefty pitching. Over the last month versus LHPs (200 PA), the Dodgers are raking with a .364 AVG, 1.096 OPS, .462 wOBA, .313 ISO, 200 wRC+, and 15.5% kRate. Those are some absolute monster numbers across what is a fairly substantial sample size. The A’s bullpen has also put up an awful 7.85 ERA and 1.68 WHIP L2Weeks. The big bats in this Dodgers lineup are going to eat up a huge chunk of salary, but this is a tough spot to ignore the offensive upside.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith

Bargain Bat: Kike Hernandez

Chicago Cubs vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

Bellozo pitched 5.1 one-hit, shutout innings against the Dodgers last week, but that will almost certainly go down as an outlier performance. Across his four starts, Bellozo owns a slate-worst 5.83 xFIP. He has also generated a slate-low 7.4% SwStr% and has had issues with walks (13.2% BB%). He has posted a very low 18.0% GroundBall% and an abnormally high 62.0% FlyBall%. He is inside the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers in average batted ball distance (212.0 feet), and this could all add up to a bad day on the mound against a capable Cubbies offense.

The Cubs have the 5th highest flyball rate against RHPs over the last month, and any pitch that they get squared up will have a legitimate chance of leaving the ballpark. The Cubs also have a 117 wRC+ and .195 ISO against RHPs at home over the last month. The Marlins’ bullpen has been getting rocked as well, pitching to a 6.70 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .297 opp AVG over the L2Weeks. This will be another pricey stack, but the Cubs land in a prime spot tonight.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch

Bargain Bat: Justin Turner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

Every hitter in the projected Padres lineup has a < 10% pOwn% with seven guys under 5%. Since Jackson Merrill made his return to the lineup last Tuesday, the Padres are hitting .321 with an .889 OPS, .385 wOBA, .191 ISO, 150 wRC+, and 13.3% kRate against RHPs. A trip to Coors Field certainly helps any team’s offensive output, but that should not take away too much from the fact that this lineup is playing at a high level right now.

I wouldn’t label Jose Soriano a bad pitcher at all -- he has put up a sharp 3.53 xFIP this season and keeps most batted balls on the ground with a slate-high 62.2% GroundBall%. However, he still puts plenty of traffic on the bases with a 1.53 WHIP, and he’s in the bottom 15th percentile in average exit velocity L30Days (91.0 mph). The Angels' bullpen has also been a disaster, pitching to an 11.25 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, .361 opp AVG, and 3.15 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks. So there is ample reason to believe the Padres have another big night at the plate tonight.

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Elias Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

3B Austin Riley, ATL vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B Jonathan Aranda, TB vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS

3B Ryan McMahon, COL vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS

1B/3B Kike Hernandez, LAD vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

SS Bo Bichette, TB vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Jordan Lawler, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF 

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

I’m a little short on time so no picks from me today, but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter! 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!