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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A pretty full evening of baseball is lined up on this fine Monday. The action on FanDuel will get underway a bit earlier with the inclusion of both the BOS at DET and STL at PHI games, bringing their main slate total up to 10 games. On DraftKings, an eight-game main slate will kick off at 7:10 ET. We’ll get a pretty strong mix of pitching and hitting/stacks to choose from today. The weather also isn’t looking like a major issue anywhere. Let’s get straight into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS at DET (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 70 degrees with winds around 10 mph IN from center/left. A late-inning rainstorm isn’t totally out of the picture, but things are expected to hold off until after the game.

• STL at PHI (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-70s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

• WAS at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some scattered storms will be in the general area. If a particularly heavy batch of rain clips the ballpark, a good chance for a delay is on the table. But they should manage to get a full game in tonight. Due to a middle-inning delay risk, starting pitchers will carry a bit more risk unless the forecast clears up closer to first pitch.

• LAA at SD (9:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): 10+ mph winds, but they’ll mostly be blowing left-to-right, so no real advantage to either hitters or pitchers.

• ARI at SF (9:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Don’t be fooled by the 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left here. As a reminder, Oracle Park mitigates wind impact. Temps will also be pretty chilly, down in the low-50s.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. LAA

King has had some troubles on the road, but we get him at home today, which is where he’s been at his best. Across 27.1 IP at home this season, King has racked up a stellar 1.32 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .158 opp AVG, and a hefty 34.9% kRate. He’s been great against both sides of the plate, allowing a .231 wOBA to RHBs and .267 wOBA to LHBs. King has kept his opponents to about a .100 ISO, so guys are not getting big hits against him regularly.

King will also draw a plus matchup versus the Angels. Looking at King’s top three most utilized pitches -- the four-seamer, sinker, and changeup -- we’ll find that the Angels have posted an MLB-high 24.4% kRate versus that pitch mix while also posting a .311 wOBA (3rd lowest). Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Angels have put up a subpar .302 wOBA and 25.5% kRate (3rd highest). So, given his inclination for pitching much better at home, especially in the strikeout department, this matchup sets up extremely well for King, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended his night with a double-digit K total.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. PIT

Peterson has drawn some challenging matchups in his last few outings, so he should be welcoming the Pittsburgh Pirates with open arms in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field this evening. Peterson’s 3.52 ERA is backed up by a better 3.26 xFIP, and while his strikeout upside is somewhat limited (21.6% kRate), he is, by far, the best pitcher on this slate when it comes to forcing groundballs (57.5% GB%). He has also landed in the top 90th percentile of pitchers in average opponent batted ball distance (130.2 feet).

The slider has been Peterson’s go-to putaway pitch, and that should play well versus the Pirates this evening. Against LHP sliders, Pittsburgh has posted a huge 41.7% Whiff% (4th highest) and 38.1% kRate (6th highest). Over the last month against LHPs, the Pirates have mustered just a .634 OPS, .285 wOBA, and 77 wRC+. They also have five guys in the projected lineup who have at least a 29.6% kRate versus LHPs this year. So, while he doesn’t often bring major K potential to lineups, Peterson does have a couple of nine-strikeout performances this season, and this is a spot where he should come away with a strong strikeout total with limited offensive damage done by the paltry Pirates lineup.

Colin Rea (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k | vs. MIA

Rea may not be a sexy DFS play, but if you need a cheap SP option, especially at SP2 on DK, then he makes a good deal of sense. After beginning the season as a long reliever, Rea has started in five straight outings. He has pitched to a strong 2.43 ERA, though his somewhat lackluster 4.00 xFIP suggests he is due for some regression. The 20.3% kRate is pretty average, if not slightly below, but Rea hasn’t allowed many free passes with a 5.7% BB%.

The Marlins have not been total pushovers, but they’re generally a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs, and they’ve also posted the 8th highest kRate against righties L2Weeks. There also isn’t a ton of pop in the Miami lineup, and only three guys in the projected lineup have higher than a .121 ISO vs. RHPs this season. The Cubs (-265 ML) also step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate, so if Rea can deliver five-plus quality innings, he should be in position to earn the win bonus. If we can squeeze around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of Rea this evening, I believe we’ll be happy with that since that allows the ability to stack up more expensive hitters.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | at NYM

Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. COL

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | at SF

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS (Monitor weather)

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $9.6k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

The Cubs' bats have been a little hit-or-miss lately, but we’ve seen this team pop up as an optimal stack as much as any other top-end offense this season. They are also back at Wrigley Field, where they’ve ranked as the #3 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.82 runs/gm. They’ll match up against Cal Quantrill, who has been a very poor starter this season with a 7.11 ERA, 5.82 xERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 15.7% kRate. Quantrill owns a slate-worst 87 Stuff+ rating, so the quality of his pitches has been subpar, to say the least. Quantrill throws either the split finger or the four-seamer on roughly 50% of his pitches. Against that pitch mix this season, the Cubs have posted a 50.5% HardHit% (4th best), .200 ISO (6th), and .367 xwOBA (7th). The Marlins’ bullpen has also struggled to a 6.27 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .287 opp AVG over the L2Weeks, so the Cubs should be in a great spot even when Quantrill is retired for the evening.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Carson Kelly, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bat: Jon Berti

New York Yankees vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

The Yankees have been on a roll lately, averaging nine runs per game over their last five. Emerson Hancock has not inspired much fear in opposing hitters this season as he has pitched to a 5.70 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 16.7% kRate. This is also just an awful spot for him to find success. Hancock has thrown either the sinker (43.6% USG%) or the changeup (21.9% USG%) on the majority of his pitches. Against that pitch mix, the Yankees have hit for a .320 AVG (ranks 1st) with a .379 wOBA (4th) and .366 BABIP (2nd). The Mariners do have a quality bullpen they can deploy if Hancock gets knocked out early, and T-Mobile Park is typically a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. But there is still a good chance that the Yankees’ bats continue to perform in this spot.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham

Bargain Bat: Jasson Dominguez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Giants lineup have a <9% pOwn%. I actually believe Merrill Kelly is more likely to pitch a solid game tonight, but there really isn’t much that’s special about his 4.95 xERA, 18.4% kRate, and 92 Stuff+ rating. The Giants have a few guys in the lineup that are heating up at the plate. And, the faster they can force Kelly off the mound, the better, because this D-Backs bullpen has been a liability. Over the L2Weeks, the D-Backs’ bullpen has pitched to a 5.84 ERA (6th worst), 4.51 xFIP (5th worst), 19.2% kRate (5th lowest), and 2.42 HR/9 Rate (3rd highest). I probably wouldn’t go crazy with Giants bats, but I could see a small stack paying dividends at low ownership.

Favorite SF Bats: Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Mike Yastrzemski

Bargain Bat: Willy Adames

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET (FD Only)

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL (FD Only)

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS (FD Only)

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. TBD, NYY

C/1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Evan Carter, TEX vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

3B/1B Alec Bohm, PHI vs. Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL (FD Only)

1B/2B Colt Keith, DET vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS (FD Only)

OF Drew Waters, KC vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

1B Joc Pederson, TEX vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

I’m a little short on time so no picks from me today, but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter! 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!