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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

In typical Thursday fashion, it’s either a getaway day or an off day for many teams today so most of the baseball action is already underway this afternoon. If you’ve got some action on that early slate, I hope you’re well on your way to some nice profit! We’ll still have a mini four-game evening slate to delve into. It’s not a bad little slate at all, though pitching is a little lackluster. Let’s get right into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/1 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• WAS at PHI (6:45 ET, 10.0 O/U): Could see a batch of rain move in during the middle/late innings so a delay is a possibility but they should get nine innings in tonight. 5-10 mph winds, mostly right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

• DET at LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Casey Mize (RHP), DET | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k | at LAA
Mize being the most expensive pitcher kinda tells you where we’re at for pitching on this small slate. That said, Mize has been rock-solid on the season and has allowed one run or fewer in four of his five starts. Across his 29.2 IP, Mize has recorded a 2.12 ERA, 2.43 xERA, 1.04 WHIP, 19.5% kRate, and 5.9% BB%. The kRate isn’t very impressive, but Mize’s 11.7% SwStr% indicates that his strikeout rate should be closer to around 23%.

The Angels have not been great at all against RHPs this season, and you could make the case that they’ve been the worst overall offense against righties over the last two weeks. In that span vs. RHPs (351 plate appearances), the Angels are hitting for a putrid .185 AVG (ranks last), .555 OPS (last), .247 wOBA (last), 54 wRC+ (last), and 30.2% kRate (highest in MLB). Mize leans on the four-seamer (32.9% USG%) and split-finger (26.7% USG%) as his top two pitches. Against that pitch mix from righties, the Angels rank 21^st on the season with a .307 wOBA and, more importantly for DFS purposes, they’ve posted the second-highest strikeout rate with a 27.9% kRate. So, overall, it’s about as strong of a matchup as Mize could ask for and he may have a little extra pep in his step today as he takes the mound on his 28^th birthday.

Justin Verlander (RHP), SF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. COL

I don’t think anyone would dispute that Verlander is firmly past his prime but he draws arguably the best matchup an MLB pitcher could ask for -- a showdown with the road Rockies. In 369 plate appearances against RHPs away from Coors Field, the Rockies rank dead last with each of the following metrics: .182 AVG, .521 OPS, .237 wOBA, 46 wRC+, and 29.3% kRate. They’re also averaging just 2.13 runs/gm on the road which, as you guessed it, dead last in MLB.

Verlander has had more solid outings than poor ones this season. His 4.99 ERA isn’t great but is backed up by a marginally better 4.41 xFIP and 3.85 xERA. His kRate has sat at 21.1% but he has generated plenty of swing-and-miss with a slate-best 12.9% SwStr%. As I mention quite often, you can generally double a pitcher’s SwStr% to find where their kRate should be, so Verlander could begin to trend closer to a ~26% kRate if he maintains that swinging strike rate. Also, among pitchers with at least 30.0 IP this season, Verlander checks in at 14^th with a 108 Stuff+ rating, so the quality of his pitches remains strong. The Giants (-265 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on this slate so we should anticipate a quality start out of JV tonight with a nice strikeout total to boot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. DET

Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | at SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

The Phillies are going to be popular on this small slate as they easily lead all offenses with a 5.6 implied run total. Their lineup has been fairly average versus RHPs this season, though they’ve been picking it up offensively lately, scoring 7+ runs in three of their last four. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they’ve been more of an above average offense, posting a .263 AVG (ranks 11^th), .738 OPS (14^th), .333 wOBA (11^th), 109 wRC+ (12^th), and a low 18.3% kRate (4^th lowest).

They’ll get a plus matchup with Brad Lord whose 4.67 ERA is backed up by a slate-worst 5.69 xERA and 1.73 WHIP. Lord has generated a meager 16.7% kRate this season and checks in with very poor 84 Stuff+ and 82 Pitch+ ratings. He leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, which he has thrown on 59.2% of his pitches. That doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup because, against RHPs four-seamers, the Phillies are 3^rd in MLB with a .389 wOBA, 4^th with a .286 AVG, and they’ve posted the 5^th lowest Whiff% (18.3%) and 8^th highest HardHit% (51.1%). After beginning the season as a reliever, Lord has yet to pitch more than 4.1 innings in any outing thus far so, if he gets bumped off the mound fairly early, the Phillies should benefit from extra at-bats against a Washington bullpen that has been abysmal this season. The Nats’ bullpen has posted, by far, the worst ERA in MLB (7.41), they’ve had the highest WHIP (1.77), and the second-highest opponent average (.285). So, while they will be chalky, everything lines up well for the Phillies bats today.

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

The BoSox have been on a nice run lately and, though we prefer to target them in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park (ranks 3^rd in park factor), they’ve been very productive on the road as of late as well. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted an .871 OPS (ranks 1^st), .377 wOBA (2^nd), .258 ISO (1^st), and 142 wRC+ (2^nd) with a 37.2% HardContact% (2^nd). The homers have been plentiful and several hitters in the lineup have been really heating up.

Jose Berrios is a decent middle-of-the-rotation guy but the results have just been very bland this season -- 34.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, 19.4% kRate, and 7.7% SwStr%. He has accounted for a lackluster 92 Stuff+ rating and hasn’t located his pitches particularly well. Berrios will be backed up by a good-not-great bullpen that could be a little shorthanded after five relievers were used in yesterday’s game.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers

Bargain Bat: Carlos Narvaez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

It’s always tougher to find leverage on a small slate like this, but Yusei Kikuchi has a 30+ pOwn% on both sites today so stacking some Tigers bats may provide some decent leverage. 7-of-9 hitters in the projected Tigers lineup have a < 9% pOwn%. It doesn’t hurt that the Tigers have been putting up some great numbers against lefty pitchers lately. They’ve been a top-10 offense versus LHPs this season but have been better over the last two weeks, hitting for a .303 AVG with an .874 OPS, .379 wOBA, .210 ISO, and 151 wRC+. The four-seamer (38.4% USG%) and slider (35.4% USG%) have been Kikuchi’s two most used pitches. Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Tigers have the 5^th highest xwOBA (.370), 8^th highest ISO (.203), and 8^th highest HardHit% (46.2%). And, while it’s not a big sample size, in 46 PA vs. Kikuchi, the current Tigers lineup has put up an excellent .349 AVG and .423 wOBA with a low 13.0% kRate. The Angels pretty comfortably have a bottom-five bullpen in MLB (2^nd worst ERA, 2^nd highest WHIP, 3^rd highest HR/9 Rate, and 8^th worst xFIP) so there aren’t any real concerns there.

Favorite DET Bats: Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Zach McKinstry

Bargain Bat: Kerry Carpenter

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF James Wood, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

2B Gleyber Torres, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

2B Bryson Stott, PHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Max Kepler, PHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

OF Dylan Crews, WAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B/OF Javier Baez, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Jordan Beck, COL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

C Rafael Marchan, PHI | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

2B/SS David Hamilton, BOS | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today! As usual, Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!