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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a split slate Wednesday with most games getting underway in the afternoon. As a result, we’ll be left with a modest five-game evening main slate which will begin with the first game at 6:45 ET. This slate would seem to favor the offensive side of things. Pitching isn’t the best, overall, and Coors Field is also in play. So this should be an interesting set of games to try to figure out! All five games are outdoors, but the weather doesn’t look to cause any issues today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/9 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR at BOS (6:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cold temps in the upper-30s with light winds OUT to center.

• LAA at TB (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-70s with 10-15 mph winds blowing left-to-right.

• PHI at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Around 60 degrees, light winds IN from left.

• MIL at COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Temps in the 60s, which is encouraging for Denver, CO considering it was less than a week ago when they played a snow game at Coors. 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAA

As mentioned in the intro, pitching isn’t the best for this five-gamer. But we’ll begin here with Ryan Pepiot who will make his third start of the season this evening. Pepiot has found some success early on, allowing just three runs across his 11.0 IP, which equates to a 2.45 ERA. His pitches have rated out well in the “Stuff+” metric -- "Stuff+" on FanGraphs is an advanced pitching metric designed to quantify the quality of a pitcher’s stuff, meaning the movement (horizontal and vertical), velocity, and overall effectiveness of their pitches and how a pitcher’s stuff compares to the league average. Just like the wRC+ (weighted runs created-plus) metric used for offense, a 100 Stuff+ would mean a pitcher has exactly league average “stuff”. Pepiot leads all pitchers on this slate with a 113 Stuff+, so his quality of pitches has been solidly above average. Pepiot’s kRate currently sits at a so-so 22.4%, though his 12.7% SwStr% indicates some positive regression is due in that department. Pepiot posted a stronger 26.3% kRate across 130 IP in 2024 and had a 28.1% kRate across eight innings in Spring Training.

The matchup isn’t bad as the Angels have shown some struggles this season, particularly on the road. In 218 PA vs. RHPs on the road this season, they’re batting for a .188 AVG and .249 wOBA with a 61 wRC+ and 21.1% kRate. That kRate isn’t exactly high, but it still opens the door for Pepiot to have a decent strikeout total alongside a quality overall outing. The Rays (-148 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on today’s small slate.

Tyler Alexander (LHP), MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | at COL

Rolling with a pitcher at Coors Field always carries some built-in risk, but that’s where we’re at for this slate. Tyler Alexander is a pretty average arm, and he has been prone to giving up the long ball in his career (1.61 HR/9 Rate), but he has looked good through two relief appearances and a start thus far this season. In his first start of 2025, he threw 5.2 no-hit innings versus the Reds and racked up six Ks. Across his 9.0 IP, Alexander has put up a 2.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 27.3% kRate. His 5.05 xFIP in that time tells us that some significant regression is due, but this is just a small sample size in general. He has had an absurdly high 70.6% FlyBall Rate, which is very concerning at Coors Field. But, if there’s a time in the season to trust a Coors pitcher, it’d be now while the weather is still cooler (and winds are blowing in from left field tonight as well). Again, small sample size and all, but, while it will inevitably rise the rankings, Coors Field has only ranked 19th among MLB ballparks in home run factor so far.

We also have to keep in mind that the Rockies do not have a top-flight offense. In 87 PA vs. LHPs this season, they’ve posted a slightly below-average 99 wRC+ alongside a lofty 27.6% kRate (6th highest). It will still be difficult for Alexander to pitch a super clean game tonight but he’s worthy of a dice roll at these low-end salaries, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings, and the Brewers are solid -142 ML favorites.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k | at KC

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | at TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), MIL

Non-Coors Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

There are only eight offenses to choose from if we’re not talking Coors Field stacks, so options are limited. But it’s never a bad idea to target bats at Fenway Park, which currently leads all MLB ballparks in park factor. The Red Sox are averaging 7.8 runs/gm at home early on this season and, against RHPs at home (153 PA), they’re rocking a .326 AVG, .934 OPS, .406 wOBA, 156 wRC+, and a low 15.7% kRate.

Kevin Gausman is no slouch but father time may be catching up to him in his age 34 season. He has acquired a poor 5.61 xFIP over his 11.1 IP so far in 2025, and he has generated just a 7.1% SwStr% and 9.8% kRate. He is also getting hit hard to the tune of a 90.8 mph average exit velo and has given up a pair of HRs already. Gausman only pitched seven innings in the spring but he came away from that with a 7.71 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, and two HRs allowed. If the poor form continues, the BoSox could make for a juicy stack today.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duren, Rafael Devers, Wilyer Abreu

Bargain Bat: Kristian Campbell

Atlanta Braves vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

I am cautiously optimistic in my Braves this evening as they have shown some signs of life at the plate in a couple of recent games. Getting starting catcher Sean Murphy back in the mix proved to be a huge boost last night when he went 2-for-4 with a homer and 4 RBI in his season debut. Don’t get me wrong, there are still some problems with this offense, which still ranks inside the bottom 10 of most key hitting metrics. But, as mentioned in previous newsletters, the Braves continue to hit the ball hard, ranking 6th in HardContact%, 6th in HardHit%, 2nd in average exit velocity, and 4th in Barrel%. Those scorching batted balls and barrels are just finally finding some gaps and clearing fences.

Taijuan Walker pitched six three-hit, shutout innings in his season debut last Thursday. But it certainly helped that he got to face the Rockies’ offense away from Coors Field. It’s safe to say that, whether it be tonight or in the not-too-distant future, Walker is going to regress from that first start. He posted awful numbers in 2024 (7.10 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.72 WHIP, .314 opp AVG, 15.2% kRate, 2.58 HR/9 Rate) and was even worse across 17.0 IP (which is a decent sample size) in Spring Training this year (7.41 ERA, 6.04 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP, .342 opp AVG, 10.1% kRate, 3.18 HR/9 Rate). In 95 PA vs. Walker, the current Braves’ roster owns a .349 AVG, .444 wOBA, and 16.8% kRate, so he is a guy that this lineup has hit well, to say the least. The Phillies’ bullpen also hasn’t been too sharp this season, pitching to a 1.48 WHIP thus far (9th worst) and it all adds up to the Braves checking in with a 5.0 implied run total, which leads all non-Coors teams on this slate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Sean Murphy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

It’s hard to locate a low-owned stack on a five-game Coors slate that has actual potential to do some damage. But we’ll give the Royals a shot today as 8-of-9 hitters in the confirmed lineup have a < 8% pOwn%. They’ll be facing arguably the most talented starting pitcher on this slate, RHP Joe Ryan. Ryan had a poor 5.54 ERA across 13.0 IP in the spring, but he did rack up a 32.1% kRate, .191 opp AVG, and 1.08 WHIP -- it was mainly the three HRs that he allowed which inflated his ERA. Through two regular season starts and 10.0 IP, Ryan has pitched to a 4.50 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, .263 opp AVG, and 26.2% kRate -- good, not great numbers. Ryan has allowed an average batted-ball distance of 209.7 feet, which places him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers this season. The Royals’ offense as a whole hasn’t been great, but there are still some dangerous bats in this lineup, some of which will get things going sooner rather than later. You could also make the argument that Kauffman Stadium will have the best hitting conditions on the entire slate. Still, I don’t have high hopes for this stack and if the Royals do some damage to Joe Ryan, they’ll face off with a Twins’ bullpen that has been very solid this season. But, at their current ownership projections, some of these KC hitters will be worth a look from a leverage standpoint.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India

Bargain Bat: Kyle Isbel

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!