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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most of the American sports world is focused on the men’s college basketball championship game tonight. However, there is still plenty of baseball action on the board for Monday evening with a seven-game main slate offering. With some teams at the top of their pitching rotation and others at the back end, there will once again be some solid balance between pitching and hitting/stacks on this slate. Let’s dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/7 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): The majority of rain is holding south of New York but some light rain/drizzle isn’t out of the question. 40-degree temps with light winds IN from center. Bump for pitchers.

• MIN at KC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 50 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

• TEX at CHC (7:40 ET, 6.0 O/U): This will be the one game to pay close attention to. Temps will be around freezing, and the 15 mph winds, which will be blowing IN from the left, will make it feel considerably colder. Snow is also a possibility during the game. So, while there is no risk of a washout, there is a possibility they elect to postpone due to the unpleasant conditions. If no PPD is announced, they should play the routine nine innings, and as you can tell by the six-run over/under, pitchers should receive a sizable bump.

• BAL at ARI (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be OPEN this evening. Temps in Phoenix are around 80 degrees during the game.

• CIN at SF (9:45 ET, 7.0 O/U): Mid-50s with light winds OUT to center.

• SD at OAK (10:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): 60 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIA

Despite earning a loss, Senga put forth a quality season debut performance last Tuesday against this same Miami team, allowing two earned runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight across five innings (77 pitches). He should ramp up to around 85-90 pitches in his second start, and we’ll love the fact that he’s making his first home start of the season. In his brief MLB career, Senga has shown some significantly stronger splits when pitching at home in Citi Field. Here’s a quick breakdown:

Home: 98.1 IP, 2.47 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, .176 opp AVG, 1.05 WHIP, 33.3% kRate

Away: 78.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, .236 opp AVG, 1.37 WHIP, 25.7% kRate

A pitcher facing the same offense in back-to-back starts, within the span of a week, does often add some risk. But, let’s be honest, most of the hitters in the Marlins’ starting lineup would be down in the minor leagues for the vast majority of MLB teams. In 215 PA vs. RHPs this season, Miami is hitting a paltry .216 with a .610 OPS, 70 wRC+, and 27.9% kRate (3rd highest). The Mets (-278 ML) are, by far, the heaviest favorites on this slate, and weather conditions at Citi Field should certainly favor pitching this evening.

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k | at SF

It’s hard to find anything to complain about Hunter Greene’s first two starts to the season. Across his 12.0 IP, Green has procured a 2.25 ERA (1.45 xERA), 3.16 xFIP, .143 opp AVG, 0.67 WHIP, and a monster 36.4% kRate and 19.7% SwStr%. He has notched eight strikeouts in each of his starts. Following his career trends, Greene is allowing a high fly ball rate (69.2% FB%), but that’s more of a factor to worry about down the line when the weather warms up, and he pitches in hitter-friendly ballparks. So far, he has allowed a single home run, and Oracle Park is not an ideal environment for hitting homers.

The Giants’ offense has been solid this season, and the team boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the early goings. However, most of their offensive metrics vs. RHPs (.243 AVG, .740 OPS, .323 wOBA, 108 wRC+) land them in the middle-of-the-pack in MLB, and their 25.3% kRate vs. RHPs is currently the 8th-highest. So, perhaps don’t expect a super clean line out of Greene this evening, but the strikeouts should certainly be there as long as he isn’t forced off the mound in the early innings.

Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MIN

Rolling the dice on one of the cheap pitchers probably isn’t what you’ll want to do on this slate, but regular readers of this newsletter know that I usually try to spotlight at least one value arm. Lorenzen gets the nod today at his $7k range price points. He pitched to a respectable 3.31 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 130.1 IP in 2024 and was a bit better at home with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Though he did rack up seven Ks against the Brewers in his season debut, he’s not a high strikeout pitcher, evidenced by his career 19.4% kRate and 18.1% kRate in 2024. However, he did throw 97 pitches right out of the gates last week, so, he could make up for his lack of strikeout potential by eating up seven innings of work if all goes well.

The Twins’ bats got off to a sluggish start over the first few games of the season but have since rebounded. However, across their 251 PA vs. RHPs, there is nothing remarkable about their overall .237 AVG, .676 OPS, .301 wOBA, and 92 wRC+. It’s a “good, not great” spot for a “good, not great” pitcher, but if we can get around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of Lorenzen today, I’d say we’d be happy with that. As usual with the cheaper pitchers, Lorenzen will make more sense as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. HOU

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.7k | at ATH

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.8k | at CHC (If the game plays)

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TEX (If the game plays)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Severino has shown some location issues in the early goings and heads in with a 13.2% BB% across his first two starts. He also owns a slate-worst 6.25 xERA and is giving up a 45.5% HardContact%. The Athletics’ bullpen has had its fair share of issues as well. While they boast a sharp 26.8% kRate (8th highest), they’ve struggled to a 6.39 ERA (4th worst) and 1.71 WHIP (5th worst).

While we haven’t seen much power out of the Padres lineup against RHPs just yet (.100 ISO vs. RHPs, ranks 27th), they have made plenty of contact and rank 8th or better in AVG (.310), OPS (.789), wOBA (.353), and wRC+ (130) while striking out only 16.1% of the time (2nd lowest kRate). It’s very early in the season, but Sutter Health Park, the temporary home of the Athletics, has ranked as the 11th most hitter-friendly ballpark, and the Padres are tied for the slate lead with a 5.0 implied run total.

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Luis Arraez

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

Back to the well with the D-Backs stack. Losing Ketel Marte (hamstring) to the 10-day IL does take some of the wind out of the sails for this offense, but Arizona still lands in one of the better spots today. Zach Eflin has pitched to a couple of quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) so far this season, but his 4.41 xFIP isn’t spectacular, and he’s rocking just a 15.2% kRate. He has been fortunate in the BABIP department as opposing hitters have only posted a .229 BABIP against him this season. Eflin has allowed a 10.8% Barrel% and a huge 56.8% HardHit% so, if those trends continue, he’s going to get shelled sooner rather than later. The Orioles’ bullpen has been pretty solid so, for this stack to work, the D-Backs may need to do most of their damage to Eflin while he’s out there.

Once again, losing Ketel Marte in the short term is a big blow to the D-Backs’ lineup, but this is still a team that has ranked top-five versus RHPs in each of the following categories: .285 AVG (4th), .878 OPS (3rd), .376 wOBA (4th), .232 ISO (3rd), 141 wRC+ (5th), and 19.6% kRate (5th lowest). Chase Field has also ranked as the 6th most hitter-friendly ballpark so far this season, and offenses can benefit in this ballpark during the early portion of the season when they usually keep the roof open before those 100+ degree temps arrive in Phoenix in a month or two.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Geraldo Perdomo/Pavin Smith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Every hitter in the projected Giants’ lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. Hunter Greene has been impressive through two starts this season and he is very likely to carry high ownership on this slate -- currently, he checks in with a 27% pOwn% on DraftKings and 24% pOwn% on FanDuel, and the actual ownership may be higher than that. So, as you can imagine, there is significant leverage to be had by stacking up some Giants bats. Most of Greene’s outs have come via the strikeout or via flyball out so if San Francisco can find the sweet spot a few times, some extra-base hits/home runs could be in the cards. The Reds’ bullpen has also posted a 4.65 xFIP (8th worst) this season. Over the last week against RHPs, the Giants have ranked top-10 in OPS, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+ so this is a pretty hot offense heading into this matchup. Every hitter in this Giants lineup is affordable as well so it’s a good way to be contrarian with the bats while freeing up money for one (or two, on DraftKings) of the big-time arms on this slate.

Favorite SF Bats: Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee

Bargain Bat: Mike Yastrzemski

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Corbin Carroll MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Jackson Merrill MORE than 7.0 Hitter Fantasy Score 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!