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• LineStar’s 2025 MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s an all-day baseball bonanza with plenty of games getting underway in the afternoon, but that will still leave a quality seven-game Friday main slate on the board which will begin at 6:45 ET! This slate has a fair balance between pitching and hitting/stacks, which always feels like a plus. It should be a fun one, so let’s jump right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/4 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI at WAS (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): 60 degrees with light ~5 mph winds IN from right. Light rain possible but not expected to be problematic.

• LAD at PHI (6:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light rain is also possible in PHI but, again, not a major concern. A stoppage in play would be a mild surprise.

• MIA at ATL (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Warm temps around 80 degrees, light winds IN from center.

• BAL at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain in the area throughout the day and into the evening but the worst of it should be out of the way by first pitch. Some steady light rain is still a possibility during the game. Cold temps in the 40s and 10-15 mph winds IN from left will make for favorable pitching conditions. However, it’s not exactly pleasant baseball weather which leads to at least a low-end chance they elect to postpone and play a doubleheader tomorrow or Sunday in better conditions. So just keep an eye out for any news there.

• CLE at LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIA

Might my Braves get their first win of 2025 tonight? The sportsbooks seem to believe so with Atlanta (-250 ML) landing as the heaviest favorite on the slate. Much of that has to do with the fact that Spencer Schwellenbach is on the mound. Schwelly had a terrific season debut against the Padres on Saturday, covering six innings of shutout baseball while allowing just two baserunners (one hit, one walk) and notching four Ks on 90 pitches. The strikeout total wasn’t anything to write home about but the Padres have posted the second-lowest kRate (14.7%) versus RHPs so far this season. Schwellenbach now toes the rubber in the Braves' home opener -- across 66.2 IP at home last season, he put up an excellent 3.22 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 26.0% kRate, and a minuscule 3.0% BB%. He leans on a deep arsenal that features six different pitch types to keep opposing hitters off-balance and guessing at the plate.

In 162 PA vs. RHPs this season, the Marlins have procured a lackluster .222 AVG, 79 wRC+, and a 25.2% kRate. There are still some tough outs in this ragtag Miami lineup but there are also four guys in the projected order who have posted at least a 33.3% kRate vs. RHPs so far in 2025. I will say that Schwellenbach’s DFS prices do seem a touch high but he does project to have the safest floor among SPs on this slate.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAD

This play could go south in a hurry simply because it’s the Dodgers. But Luzardo looked great in his season debut, racking up a whopping 11 Ks against the Nats while allowing two runs across five innings. He threw 95 pitches right out of the gate so Luzardo should be ready to handle a full workload already. He posted a stout 29.1% kRate in the spring and has put up a strong 27.7% kRate in 47 PA versus this Dodgers’ lineup.

The Dodgers have had 95 plate appearances versus LHPs this season and they’ve put up some fairly underwhelming numbers -- .198 AVG, .693 OPS, 97 wRC+, and 18.9% kRate. The strikeout rate isn’t exactly high, but there are some strikeouts to be had in some spots of the LAD lineup -- Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, and Michael Conforto all had at least a 24.5% kRate vs. LHPs last season (though, Muncy may not be starting versus a lefty). If you’re willing to take some risk with the matchup, Luzardo could pay dividends today.

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | at WAS

Pfaadt isn’t the most consistent SP out there but he does bring plenty of upside to lineups at these price points. He did get rather unlucky in 2024 as his 4.71 ERA across 181.2 IP was over a run higher than his xFIP (3.58) and SIERA (3.65), which are metrics that are much more indicative of where a pitcher’s ERA should be. The 24.3% kRate was still solid and he showed some favorable splits on the road.

Pfaadt drew the difficult task of dealing with the Cubs’ lineup in his season debut -- the Cubs are currently the 3rd best offense in baseball, averaging 6.67 runs/gm. The sledding should get easier against a young Nationals lineup that, so far versus RHPs (145 PA), has posted a .223 AVG and 29.7% kRate (4th highest). That’s not to say that this Nationals offense will be pushovers but the strikeouts should be there for Pfaadt and the D-Backs (-148 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | at PHI

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CLE

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

The D-Backs’ offense has picked up right where it left off in 2024 and has been one of the best offenses to begin this season. In 162 PA vs. RHPs, they’re hitting for a .299 AVG, .918 OPS, .391 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 154 wRC+. They’ll draw one of the more favorable SP matchups today with Jake Irvin on the mound. Irvin had some bright spots last season, but those were mostly frontloaded at the start of the season. Over his final 15 starts last year, Irvin acquired a 6.50 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, .365 opp wOBA, 17.5% kRate, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate. Irvin had a rough spring where he pitched to a 6.45 xFIP over 16.1 IP and gave up four home runs (2.20 HR/9 Rate) while only notching a 12.0% kRate. And while he did hold a talented Phillies lineup to two runs across 5.0 IP in his season debut, he still allowed seven hits (one HR) and a pair of walks while notching just two strikeouts. The Washington bullpen has also been among the worst in MLB thus far, owning a 7.78 ERA, 6.17 xFIP (worst in MLB), 2.08 WHIP, 14.7% kRate (lowest in MLB), 17.6% BB%, and 1.83 HR/9 Rate. We should expect the D-Backs to have plenty of traffic on the bases today.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Pavin Smith/Geraldo Perdomo

Atlanta Braves vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

I am trying to will some Braves offense into existence today. The surface stats for Atlanta’s offense are ugly across the board but perhaps an off day plus playing at home for the first time this season will wake some of the bats up. Despite the lack of production, the Braves are 4th in MLB with an 11.3% Barrel% and own a decent 38.7% HardContact%. Well-struck balls just aren’t finding gaps or clearing fences so far, and the Braves’ awful BABIP luck (.199 BABIP, lowest in MLB) has to turn around at some point… right?!

Max Meyer has some pedigree and pitched well in his season debut (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 7 K), albeit against a poor Pirates’ offense. He also has just 68.2 IP at the MLB level and has acquired a lackluster 5.50 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, and 2.23 HR/9 Rate in that time. Despite pitching to a 2.62 ERA thus far in 2025, the Marlins’ bullpen is due for some regression based on their 5.29 xFIP (5th worst) and fortunately-low .176 BABIP (2nd lowest). Temperatures are around 80 degrees in Atlanta this evening so perhaps some of those barreled balls will make it over the wall today.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Drake Baldwin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

Aside from Jose Ramirez, every hitter in the Guardians’ lineup has a pOwn% of 8% or lower. Bit of a sluggish start for this Cleveland offense, which has a 76 wRC+ vs. RHPs through 132 PA, but they are another team that has not had the best of luck in the BABIP department (.235 BABIP vs. RHPs, ranks 23rd). When dealing with early season metrics, BABIP is a great one to keep an eye on as an unusually low BABIP, especially for a team with solid hitters throughout the lineup, can indicate some positive regression is due. Perhaps that happens for Cleveland this evening.

Jose Soriano was great in his 2025 debut, pitching seven scoreless frames, and allowing only two hits and two walks, versus the White Sox. Soriano was also solid in the majority of his starts last season. However, he has shown some struggles on his home mound. His ERA sat at 4.50 at home last season (vs. 2.74 ERA away) and his 1.41 WHIP at home was also considerably higher than his road 1.07 WHIP. Whether those issues bleed over into this season is to be determined but it’s worth pointing out. The sooner the Guardians can get Soriano off the mound, the better, because the Angels’ bullpen has been pretty awful so far in 2025 -- 7.11 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 2.05 WHIP, and .296 opp AVG.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo

Bargain Bat: Nolan Jones/Gabriel Arias

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

I’m going to keep throwing a little HR parlay together for Fridays. This play has a 12.5x payout but, if you’re interested in tailing and have access to various sportsbooks, you can likely find better odds.

Marcell Ozuna MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

Matt McLain MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!