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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll close out the month of April with a busy Wednesday slate! FanDuel will feature an eight-game main slate, and with the inclusion of game two of the STL at CIN doubleheader, the DraftKings main slate will sit at nine games. Pitching is on the weaker side for a slate of this size, but that will mean plenty of hitters/stacks will land in some pretty strong spots. Also, keep in mind that this slate will get underway a bit early with the first game (NYY at BAL) beginning at 6:35 ET. There are no West Coast games lined up, and the latest game on the slate has an 8:05 ET start time, so things will wrap up fairly early today. Let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/30 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL at CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): > DraftKings Main Slate Only < A stray storm or two may make their way over the ballpark so a delay is a possibility. No major PPD concern.

• KC at TB (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Mid-80s temps at first pitch with 10+ mph winds IN from right.

• ARI at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from left.

• MIL at CWS (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Probably the one remotely concerning game on the slate. Some rain is moving through this afternoon and may linger into the evening. It’s not particularly heavy rain, so they could probably just play through it or implement a late start. Either way, they should be able to get nine innings in for this one.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. KC

Rasmussen got roughed up a bit in his last start on the road in Arizona but has otherwise been rock-solid this season. Across his 25.2 IP, he has recorded a slate-best 2.10 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, and 27.8% kRate. Among pitchers with at least 20.0 IP this season, Rasmussen ranks 5th in all of MLB with a 113 Stuff+ rating, so the quality of his pitches has been exceptional. The one knock against him is that he doesn’t exactly pitch with a long leash. Rasmussen has yet to clear 6.0 IP in an outing this season, and he has maxed out at 84 pitches in a single game. But if he can provide some economical innings, he should stay on the DFS radar today on what is a fairly weak pitching slate.

The Royals have really struggled offensively this season and check in with a 73 wRC+ vs. RHPs, which is the second-worst mark in MLB ahead of only the woeful Rockies. They have also been the third-worst road offense in the majors, averaging just 2.71 runs/gm away. KC isn’t an easy team to strike out (19.7% kRate vs. RHPs), but Rasmussen could still put up a decent strikeout total in this matchup, and the Rays (-166 ML) are also pretty heavily favored.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. WAS

Sanchez was removed from his last start due to left forearm soreness and, as a result, he has only pitched two innings since April 17th. The injury seems to be an isolated issue, and he’s good to go tonight. For DFS purposes, we’ll have to hope that he isn’t going to face any major workload restrictions. Assuming he’s a [mostly] full-go, he’s in a quality spot today. Home is where Sanchez tends to thrive, and he averages more than 40% more FPPG at Citizens Bank Park. Dating back to the start of last season, when he has pitched at home (128.0 IP), Sanchez has come away with an outstanding 2.39 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, .249 opp wOBA, 0.98 WHIP, and 25.4% kRate. The strikeout rate has been up for Sanchez this season (29.5% KRate), and he has generated an elite 15.1% SwStr%, which easily tops all pitchers on this slate.

The Nationals have plenty of young talent in their lineup,p but they have yet to find much success against lefty pitching. Versus LHPs, they have accounted for a low .613 OPS (ranks 23rd) and 71 wRC+ (24th). The Phillies (-230 ML) are comfortably the heaviest favorites on the slate so, barring any workload restrictions, Sanchez should be one of the top pitchers to consider today.

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | at TB

More of a DraftKings SP2 play here but, if you’re feeling frisky, Cameron may work in more aggressive builds on FanDuel at his $6,000 price tag. Cameron is making his MLB debut today in place of the injured Cole Ragans, and you don’t often see a starting pitcher at the minimum $4,000 on DraftKings. Cameron is ranked as the No. 3 prospect for Kansas City, and the No. 87 overall MLB prospect, over on FanGraphs, and has put up some impressive numbers in Triple-A so far this season. Across his five starts and 22.1 IP in Triple-A, Cameron has come away with a 3.22 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, .185 opp AVG, 1.03 WHIP, and 30.3% kRate. Across a larger sample size, albeit still in the minor leagues, Cameron put up similarly strong numbers over 128.2 IP between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024 -- 3.08 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, .241 opp AVG, 1.21 WHIP, and 27.8% kRate. The Royals will likely keep Cameron on a short leash in his debut, but if he can clear 5.0 IP, given his strikeout upside, he could end up being an elite value. Of course, there is always some built-in risk with rolling out a guy making his MLB debut, but Cameron is not your typical spot-starter scrub and could put up a surprisingly strong pitching line this evening.

The Rays have a pretty decent offense, but they’re another squad that has yet to get much production off of lefty pitching. Versus LHPs this season, Tampa Bay owns a poor .207 AVG (ranks 24th), .598 OPS (26th), 78 wRC+ (22nd), and 24.7% kRate (13th highest).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ATH

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.4k | at PIT

Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | at CWS

Brandon Waddell (RHP), NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. ARI (Expected bulk reliever)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

The Cubs have boasted one of the best offenses in baseball this season and, against RHPs, they have posted a .256 AVG, .771 OPS, .338 wOBA, .182 ISO, and 116 wRC+, ranking top 10 in every category. The Cubs have also been the No. 1 road offense so far this season, averaging 6.06 runs/gm away.

Mlodzimski has put up an ugly 6.95 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and 17.3% kRate across his five starts, though he hasn’t been as bad as those numbers would indicate based on his 3.89 xFIP. Still, he’s far from a top-flight pitcher and gives up plenty of contact, including a high 23.4% LineDrive%. Once Mlodzimski’s day is done, the Pirates will deploy a bottom-10 bullpen which owns the 6th worst xFIP (4.57) in MLB.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong (also really like Carson Kelly today)

Bargain Bat: Jon Berti

New York Yankees vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

Hoping for the same sort of home run fireworks that the Yankees put on display yesterday will be a tall order, but they are in another terrific spot versus the lefty Cade Povich (5.04 ERA, 5.40 xERA, 1.72 WHIP, 7.9% SwStr%). The Yankees have demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a .278 AVG (ranks 5th), .867 OPS (2nd), .375 wOBA (2nd), .225 ISO (2nd), and 149 wRC+ (1st). Povich has also allowed nine barreled balls in the last 30 days, placing him in the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers. Behind Povich will be a struggling O’s bullpen which owns the 4th worst ERA (4.84), 3rd highest opp AVG (.275), and 2nd highest WHIP (1.60). So far this season, Camden Yards has ranked as the #1 most hitter-friendly ballpark and the #2 home run park. The Yankees should have plenty of traffic on the bases today, and multiple home runs should certainly be expected as well.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe

Bargain Bat: Oswald Peraza

DraftKings Main Slate Only

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

Favorite STL Bats: Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras

Bargain Bat: Alec Burleson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

Every hitter in the confirmed Blue Jays lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. The Toronto offense has been very underwhelming, especially in recent weeks. But they’ll have a chance to get some things cooking against Lucas Giolito, who will be making his first MLB start since the end of 2023. Giolito missed all of last season after undergoing surgery on his throwing elbow. He has not looked sharp across his 27.1 IP in the minor leagues this season where he has come away with a 5.19 ERA, 5.33 xFIP, 21.0% kRate, 16.0% BB%, and 1.79 WHIP. Giolito also gave up a ton of home runs during his last MLB season with a 2.00 HR/9 Rate across 184.1 IP in 2023. Giolito may have a somewhat short leash in this game, but he will be backed up by a Red Sox bullpen that ranks fairly middle-of-the-pack in most major pitching categories.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer

Bargain Bat: Alejandro Kirk

I’m a little short on time today so no one-offs or bargain batter lists. Those will return tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today! As usual, Tyler & Shannon have some excellent recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!