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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s Tuesday, so that means we’ll have a hefty MLB slate ahead! Ten games will land on this evening’s main slate ticket,t and this set of games has a little bit of everything. Legitimate aces, intriguing mid-range/value pitchers, Coors Field is in play once again, and several other non-Coors stacks will pique some interest. The weather looks to affect some MLB games today, but fortunately, the worst of the weather will be isolated to the games that are in the 6 o’clock ET window, which aren’t on the main slate. Let’s have some fun! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/29 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC at TB (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A bit of rain could make its way over the ballpark in the late afternoon and linger into the early evening. The worst-case scenario seems to be just a possible late start. Once they get going, there should be no further issues (and there may be no delay at all). Temps around 80 degrees with stiff 15+ mph winds blowing IN from center.

• ARI at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 15 mph winds OUT to center. Bump for bats in the typically pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

• ATL at COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): A dash of rain could make its way over the ballpark around first pitch but things look clear after that. So, similar to Tampa Bay, a late start seems like the worst-case scenario and the game may very well begin as scheduled. Mid-50s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.7k | at SD

Webb continues to turn in some excellent results in the early goings of the 2025 season. He has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA across his six starts, which is supported by a slate-best 2.10 xFIP. And, despite a fairly average 11.3% SwStr%, Webb has managed to produce a 30.8% kRate alongside a high 55.7% GroundBall% and low 19.3% FlyBall%. The modest SwStr% does suggest that Webb’s kRate is due to regress, but that is really the only complaint to be had about his current form.

The Padres’ lineup has been hit by multiple key injuries to some everyday hitters and a couple of platoon bats -- Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, Jason Heyward, and Brandon Lockridge are all currently on the IL -- though, it is reported that Arraez is expected to be activated today. Along with injuries, some hitting slumps by the currently healthy Padres have led to San Diego posting an awful .192 AVG, .534 OPS, .243 wOBA, .090 ISO, and 55 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. The Padres have also accounted for a 49.5% GroundBall% vs. RHPs L2Weeks (2nd highest), which plays into Webb’s strength as a groundball pitcher. While they can still be a relatively tough team to strike out, the kRate for San Diego has also crept up to 24.5% over the last week. The likely return of Arraez today does add some much-needed reinforcement to this banged-up Padres lineup, but Webb still deserves plenty of DFS consideration today given his elite form.

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. ATH

I’d say it’s only a matter of time before we see a prime deGrom-esque performance, and perhaps it happens tonight. He did shut down the mighty Dodgers lineup a couple of starts ago, pitching seven one-run innings while snagging seven Ks. But if you were an active MLB viewer during his prime years in the mid-to-late 2010s, you’ll know that that was more of an average day on the mound for deGrom. He has pitched to a solid, albeit unspectacular 3.33 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, and 1.07 WHIP through five starts (27.0 IP) this year. His kRate sits at an above-average 23.9%, but his 13.8% SwStr% tells us that he should be closer to around a 28% kRate. His fastball still carries an average velo of 97.0 mph. But what stands out most about deGrom, statistically, are his advanced metrics and the value he has produced with his breaking balls. Among all starting pitchers with at least 20.0 IP this season, deGrom is 2nd in the MLB with 116 Location+ and 124 Pitching+ ratings. As a reminder, “Pitching+” is a comprehensive pitching metric that combines both Stuff+ (the quality of a pitcher’s pitches) and Location+ (how well they locate those pitches). And, right now, deGrom trails only Detroit ace Tarik Skubal (128 Pitching+). He also owns a 99th percentile rating in “breaking ball run value” -- his slider and changeup (his 2nd and 3rd most used pitches, and top two putaway pitches) have been excellent wipeout pitches that have generated a 39.7% Whiff% and a 47.6% Whiff%, respectively. So, while the results thus far haven’t fully shown it, he has had the pitching qualities that you’d typically see out of an elite ace.

The Athletics have been a fairly average offense versus RHPs this season, ranking at or around 15th in AVG, OPS, and wOBA. They have posted the 4th lowest kRate (19.0%) against RHPs and just faced deGrom five days ago, who turned in a good-not-great pitching line (5.1 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 6 K) on 83 pitches. So it is tough to say that this is the best matchup that deGrom could ask for, but the possibility of getting a vintage deGrom performance tonight is tough to pass up on.

Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

I was pretty split on which affordable pitcher to spotlight today. There are a few guys who I could see having solid outings… all of which could also get shelled. Ultimately, we’ll land on Ryan Gusto. Gusto made his first four appearances out of the bullpen this season but has served as a starter over his last three games. By far, his best outing came last Wednesday against Toronto when he pitched 5.2 IP on a season-high 80 pitches, allowing one run on three hits and a walk while striking out six. Across his 22.2 IP this season, Gusto has supplied some quality results -- 2.78 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 25.6% kRate, 14.2% SwStr%, and a low 4.4% Walk Rate.

In terms of the matchup, the lefties in the Tigers lineup do provide some concern for Gusto. Against LHBs this season, Gusto has accounted for a 5.40 ERA, 6.29 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, .344 opp wOBA, and 20.0% kRate (but he has been lights out versus RHBs -- 2.25 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, .242 opp wOBA, and 29.1% kRate). That said, the Tigers have struggled a bit against RHPs on the road where they’ve posted a low .226 AVG, .667 OPS, 92 wRC+, and a lofty 27.8% kRate. So, if Gusto can build on his last outing, getting up to around 90 pitches, and keep those lefty bats in check, he may just come away as the best value arm on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | at TOR

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | at CWS

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. SF

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. LAA

Reese Olson (RHP), DET | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | at HOU

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BOS

Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH | DK: $6k, FD: $5.5k | at TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

Seattle Mariners vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Any offense playing in the not-so-hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park does lose some of its luster, but this is still a strong spot for a hot Mariners’ offense to keep it rolling. Since April 9th against RHPs (507 PA), the Mariners have ranked 1st in OPS (.837), wOBA (.369), and wRC+ (150) while checking in at 3rd in ISO (.212), 2nd in HardContact% (37.2%), and 4th in home runs (22). The preseason narrative over Seattle not having the offense to match their top-notch pitching rotation has rapidly disappeared, and with staff ace Logan Gilbert going on the IL and George Kirby still working back from a shoulder injury, their offense may need to continue to step up for the foreseeable future.

RHP Jack Kochanowicz has been nothing special through his five starts, procuring a poor 5.47 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and meager 11.4% kRate. Over the last 30 days, Kochanowicz is inside the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers in both average exit velo (92.0 mph) and barreled balls allowed (9). Kochanowicz’s one strong quality has been his ability to get groundball outs (48.4% GB%), but the Mariners have posted the 10th lowest GroundBall% vs. RHPs since that April 9^th date, so that’s another factor that could lead to some offensive success for Seattle. Behind Kochanowicz will be an Angels bullpen that has ranked bottom-five in ERA, WHIP, opp AVG, and HR/9 Rate. So, despite the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, we should look for the Mariners’ bats to stay hot tonight. There also shouldn’t be a ton of ownership on these SEA bats -- every hitter in the projected lineup currently has a < 8% pOwn%.

Favorite SEA Bats: Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez

Bargain Bat: JP Crawford

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

After missing the entire 2024 season, Sandy Alcantara is still working back into his past form. He has put up some very un-Alcantara-esque results over his five starts this year -- 6.56 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 17.0% kRate, and 12.0% BB%. His stuff has been good (109 Stuff+) but he has yet to fully regain his plate control, evidenced by his subpar 94 Location+ rating. He has been another pitcher who has relied on groundball outs (59.2% GB%) but the Dodgers own the 5th lowest GB% against RHPs this season. Until proven otherwise, there is no reason to shy away from stacking against Alcantara with quality offenses. There is also nothing remarkable about the Marlins’ bullpen which owns an MLB-worst 5.00 xFIP and MLB-low 18.6% kRate.

The Dodgers’ offense perhaps hasn’t fully lived up to expectations yet this season but they are at home tonight where they’ve averaged 5.19 runs/gm this season (vs. 4.38 runs/gm away). Against RHPs L2Weeks at home (188 PA), the Dodgers have put some great numbers -- .298 AVG, .886 OPS, .392 wOBA, .193 ISO, and 153 wRC+; those are the type of numbers we’ve come to expect out of this loaded Dodgers lineup.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddy Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Andy Pages

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

Every hitter in the projected DET lineup has a < 9% pOwn%. I gave Ryan Gusto a pitcher spotlight above but also noted some concerns surrounding him versus the lefties in this Tigers’ lineup. The righty/lefty splits have been stark for Gusto, and he’s had plenty of issues with LHBs -- 5.40 ERA, 6.29 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, .344 opp wOBA, .212 opp ISO, and 3.60 HR/9 Rate. The Tigers have five LHBs that should be in the lineup this evening and a couple of those bats have some solid pop. The Astros do have a top-tier bullpen, so we may need Detroit to cash in early while Gusto is on the mound, but the matchup is intriguing enough to roll some lefty Tigers bats out there.

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry

Bargain Bat: Trey Sweeney

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

3B/SS Jorge Polanco, SEA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

C Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

3B Junior Caminero, TB | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is < $4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), CWS

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

2B Luisangel Acuña, NYM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dodgers Bullpen

OF Chandler Simpson, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Jordan Beck, COL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

OF Eli White, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

C Kyle Higashioka, TEX | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Drew Waters, KC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Alex Verdugo MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Logan Webb MORE than 32.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!