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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We get the ball rolling on a new week of baseball with a six-game Monday slate! Keep in mind that this slate will kick off at 6:35 pm ET. Off the rip, you’ll likely notice that pitching is pretty ugly on this slate. On the flip side, that will make plenty of hitters/stacks viable, and 9-of-12 teams on this slate bear at least a 4.5 implied run total. No glaring weather issues today so that will be one less headache to deal with. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/28 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY at BAL (6:35 ET, 9.5 O/U): 70 degrees with light winds OUT to left.

• STL at CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Mid-70s with light winds IN from right.

• ATL at COL (8:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): Low-end chance for a few raindrops. Mid-50s temps with 10 mph winds IN from center/left. Not the best hitting conditions but it’s still Coors Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $10k, FD: $9.6k | at HOU

Flaherty is quite clearly the best pitcher on this slate so he’s not going to be flying under anyone’s radar. The results have been sharp for Flaherty through five starts and 27.1 IP -- 2.63 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, and 30.6% kRate. To no surprise, Flaherty leads all SPs today in all four of those listed pitching metrics. Flaherty also owns some quality history versus this Astros team. In 78 PA versus the current Astros’ roster, he has allowed a low .211 AVG and .238 wOBA while notching a 28.2% kRate.

The Astros offense has been pretty sluggish versus RHPs over the first month of the season. In 844 PA vs. RHPs, they have ranked 25th or worse in each of the following categories: .639 OPS (27th), .286 wOBA (27th), .105 ISO (29th), and 86 wRC+ (25th). Their 22.6% kRate against righties has also been higher than the league average. Only one hitter in the projected lineup (Isaac Paredes) has higher than a .312 wOBA against RHPs this season and there are plenty of strikeouts to be had once you get past the top three hitters in the lineup. Flaherty leans on the four-seamer and slider as his top two pitches. Against that pitch mix, the Astros have hit just .209 and have ranked dead last with a .256 wOBA and .090 ISO. So, all-in-all, this is not a worrisome matchup for Flaherty and he should post another excellent outing tonight.

Dustin May (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIA

May ran into a bit of a buzzsaw in his last outing, allowing seven runs on 10 hits and three walks to the Cubbies in Chicago. However, he did hit a season-high 95 pitches, which was encouraging to see after May missed nearly the entirety of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. May will step back on the mound at home, where he has posted his two best starts this season. Across his 11.0 IP at home, May has allowed just one run (0.82 ERA) while holding opponents to a .108 AVG and a .161 wOBA. He has also put up a 2.14 xFIP and 0.64 WHIP at home alongside a blistering 32.5% kRate. So we’ll see if that trend continues this evening.

The Marlins offense has been pretty scrappy lately, putting up at least six runs in five of their last eight games. That said, they’re still a bottom-10 offense against RHPs on the season and rank 21st with a .693 OPS and 22nd with a 92 wRC+. Their 24.1% kRate vs. RHPs is also the 5th highest in the majors. The Dodgers (-278 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate so if May can deliver five or six quality innings, he should be in a great spot to land the win bonus.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | at BAL

Warren is under $7k on both sites and sets up as arguably the most appealing cheap SP on this slate. His 4.79 ERA over five starts (20.2 IP) isn’t anything special but his 3.69 xFIP is over a run lower than the ERA, suggesting he has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. Warren has also supplied a rock-solid 24.1% kRate and has posted a 105 Pitch+ rating, which is tied for the 2nd highest mark on the slate. Pitch+ is a comprehensive pitching metric that combines both Stuff+ (the quality of a pitcher’s pitches) and Location+ (how well they locate those pitches), so a 105 Pitch+ is a nice mark that shows Warren has shown good overall skill on the mound. It’s also an indicator that his high 11.5% Walk Rate is due for some positive regression.

Keeping the Orioles’ offense in check won’t be the easiest task -- they’ve ranked 6th or better versus RHPs in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ this season. However, their offense has been on the struggle bus over the last week or so. Over their previous seven games, dating back to April 20th, they’re averaging just 1.71 runs/gm and, against RHPs, they’re hitting for a .217 AVG with a .605 OPS, .272 wOBA, .096 ISO, 78 wRC+, and 25.4% kRate. Baltimore is returning from a six-game road trip today and they’ve been much better at home, so this may be the spot where the O’s snap out of their funk. But, if you need a cheap pitcher, Warren makes as much sense as any of the other value options on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

JP Sears (LHP), ATH | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k | at TEX

Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

Sugano brings a quality 3.54 ERA and 1.14 WHIP into his sixth start, but he’s been fortunate to post those numbers based on his slate-worst 6.43 xERA and 4.82 xFIP. Among pitchers with at least 20.0 IP this season, Sugano ranks dead last with an 8.0% kRate, so opposing hitters are going to be putting plenty of balls in play against him and Sugano’s current .228 opp BABIP is unsustainably low. The Yankees are near the top of every major hitting category against RHPs: .255 AVG (6th), .788 OPS (2nd), .347 wOBA (2nd), .194 ISO (3rd), and 128 wRC+ (2nd). The O’s bullpen has also been a point of weakness -- they’ve ranked dead last in opp AVG (.272), 24th in ERA (4.75), 24th in xFIP (4.39), and 29th in WHIP (1.59). Camden Yards has ranked as the #1 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season as well as the #2 home run park (behind only Yankee Stadium). Outside of Aaron Judge, every other hitter in the projected Yankees’ lineup has a < 10% pOwn%, so they may not be an overly chalky stack.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Dominguez

Bargain Bat: Trent Grisham

Athletics vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

Stacking against Corbin is all fun and games until Cy Corbin shows up. We’ll count on that not happening tonight. The A’s have been among the best offenses against lefty pitching this season -- .275 AVG (6th), .791 OPS (4th), .346 wOBA (4th), .196 ISO (4th), and 128 wRC+ (4th). The A’s also just saw Corbin six days ago and though they put up just a pair of runs against him across five innings, they did get seven total hits, including two homers, and a couple of walks. Offenses who see the same starting pitcher within the span of a week also tend to do better against them the second time around. The Athletics have also been better on the road where they’ve averaged 4.77 runs/gm (versus 3.92 runs/gm at home). The Rangers do have a bullpen that has been pitching very well which they can deploy once Corbin’s day is done, but the TEX bullpen has pitched the 3rd most innings over the last five days, so some fatigue could be a factor.

Favorite ATH Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Luis Urias

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

Every hitter in the projected Marlins’ lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. Dustin May earned a pitcher spotlight above but is going to be fairly popular today, so there is some nice leverage to be had by stacking against him. As mentioned in May’s write-up, the Marlins have been surprisingly good offensively lately, scoring 6+ runs in five of their last eight games. Against RHPs in that eight-game stretch (230 plate appearances), they’ve posted a .781 OPS (ranks 5th), .341 wOBA (7th), .208 ISO (3rd), 113 wRC+ (8th), and 16.1% kRate (3rd lowest). For a lineup that is full of no-names and is typically devoid of power, they have been mashing some baseballs, evidenced by that .200+ ISO L8Games. The Dodgers do have a top-flight bullpen, which leads the MLB with a 3.27 xFIP, that they can roll out if May gets into some early trouble. But that Dodgers’ pen has also seen a ton of work over the last two days, having thrown 207 total pitches, so they’re certainly not going to be at full strength today. I wouldn’t go crazy with a full five-man stack here, but even just a two or three-man Miami stack could be a nice way to be contrarian on this six-game slate.

Favorite MIA Bats: Agustin Ramirez, Xavier Edwards, Eric Wagaman

Bargain Bat: Matt Mervis

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Brent Rooker, ATH | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

2B/SS Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

C Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is < $4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

1B Michael Toglia, COL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Edwards Cabrera (RHP), MIA

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Gavin Lux, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Trent Grisham, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Jordan Beck, COL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

1B Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Eli White, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Kevin Pillar, TEX | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Kyle Higashioka, TEX | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

2B/3B Luis Urias, ATH | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!