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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

After a quiet MLB Thursday, everyone is getting set to kick off their weekend series which means all 30 teams are on the diamond today. Twelve games will make it onto the Friday main slate so it’s going to be a jam-packed evening of baseball! This slate has it all -- aces, intriguing mid-range/value arms, Coors Field is in play, and plenty of other offenses land in opportunistic spots. Aside from the BOS at CLE game, weather also shouldn't present many problems. We have now hit the four-week mark to the new 2025 season so we’re starting to get a clearer picture of how teams and players are set to perform this year. Of course, the more data the better, but it’s nice to have a fairly solid sample size to reference when making our DFS approach. Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/25 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph crosswinds blowing right-to-left. Chance for some light rain which isn’t expected to impact play.

• BOS at CLE (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): The one trouble spot on this main slate. Quite a bit of rain is upstream from Cleveland and is expected to arrive late afternoon or around first pitch. Some amount of rain is expected in the area for much/all of the evening so I’d say the best-case scenario is that they wait for the heavier stuff to move through then play through some light-to-moderate rain. So, a delay seems pretty likely and a PPD is certainly on the table. It's worth a pre-game radar check before locking in any BOS/CLE players. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning any players from this game.

• HOU at KC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from left.

• LAA at MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-50s temps with light 5-10 mph winds, a bit left-to-right, mostly IN from left.

• MIL at STL (8:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the low-70s with 10 mph winds mostly OUT to right, a bit left-to-right. Low-end chance for a stray storm to move through the area.

• CIN at COL (8:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-to-moderate chance for a bit of rain to move through but it would clear relatively quickly, so we’ll leave this as a “chance for a delay”. Cold temps in the mid-40s, hence the relatively low (by Coors Field standards) 9.0 over/under.

• ATL at ARI (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-80s around first pitch. Slight bump to bats.

• CWS at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

We get one of the more alluring pitching matchups of the early season here with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking on Paul Skenes. But of course, one of these guys is backed up by an elite offense, and the other… not so much, so the Dodgers (-218 ML) check in as one of the heaviest favorites on the slate. Yamamoto has also just been lights out. Across his five starts, he has pitched to a minuscule 0.93 ERA which is backed up by an equally impressive 1.82 xFIP. He is also rocking a mammoth 35.2% kRate and has forced a high 63.5% Groundball%. Batted balls against him are averaging just 125.2 feet, which places him in the 90th percentile of pitchers in that category. Yamamoto hasn’t allowed a single run across his last two starts and he has racked up 19 Ks in those 13.0 IP.

The Pirates have been one of the lower-quality offenses against RHPs this season, and they’ve had their fair share of struggles on the road where they’re averaging just 3.0 runs/gm. Against RHPs on the road, they’ve posted a lowly .217 AVG with a .613 OPS, .278 wOBA, .094 ISO, and 75 wRC+. They aren’t a super strikeout-prone offense against righties but do sit around the league average with a 22.7% kRate. There are really only two or three hitters in this Pirates lineup that could cause issues. If Yamamoto keeps guys like the hot-hitting Oneil Cruz, the always-savvy Bryan Reynolds, and veteran hitter Andrew McCutchen in check, he should cruise to another excellent outing.

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $7.9k | at COL

There will always be some risk involved with rostering a Coors Field pitcher but Andrew Abbott makes for an intriguing option today. His start to the 2025 season was delayed due to a rotator cuff strain, and he only has two starts under his belt, but they have been two very impressive starts. Across his 11.0 IP, Abbott has come away with a 1.64 ERA, 1.73 xERA, 0.64 WHIP, and a monster 40.0% kRate. That kRate will, of course, come down, and he has allowed a lofty 57.1% FlyBall% -- a high flyball rate is always a concern at Coors. But temps will be in the mid-40s out in Denver tonight so it will be tougher than usual for hitters to clear the fence even in the thin atmosphere. Abbott cleared 93 pitches in his last start so he should be set to handle a pretty full workload tonight.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Rockies have been awful against lefties. In 266 PA vs. LHPs this season, they have mustered just a .216 AVG, .634 OPS, 67 wRC+, and a huge 28.9% kRate. And, while it’s not a huge sample size, in 33 PA versus this current Rockies’ roster, Abbott has held them to a .201 xwOBA with a massive 42.4% kRate. So, as you can guess, we’re chasing strikeout upside with Abbott this evening, and even if he gives up some hits and two or three runs, his final strikeout total could be more than enough to make up for it.

Luis Severino (RHP), ATH | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CWS

Severino isn’t a particularly good pitcher, but he has had a decent showing thus far this season, and, across five starts and 27.2 IP, he has come away with a respectable 3.31 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and a sharp 1.04 WHIP. The strikeouts haven’t been there (16.5% kRate, 6.8% SwStr%) for Sevvy but he has shown good, quality pitches and his 109 Stuff+ rating is tied for the slate lead with Paul Skenes.

Of course, matching up with the White Sox is going to be enough to make most pitchers intriguing DFS targets. Against RHPs this season, the White Sox have posted a .208 AVG (ranks last), .605 OPS (last), .275 wOBA (29th), .104 ISO (28th), and 78 wRC+ (28th). Their strikeout rate has also been creeping up and their 23.8% kRate vs. RHPs is the 7th highest in MLB. Sevvy has made it through at least six full innings in four of five starts this season so if he can pitch deep into this one while picking up the win (ATH -258 ML, second-heaviest favorites on the slate), then that could be enough to make up for his lack of strikeout upside. Though, I still believe he can notch around five or six Ks this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIA

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. TB

Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | at SD

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LAA

Zac Gallen (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

Non-Coors Stacks

Athletics vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

I’ll continue to target the A’s and other good offenses visiting Sutter Health Park, which continues to rank as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and has favorable winds blowing out this evening. The A’s will get a juicy matchup with right-hander Sean Burke, who heads into his sixth start with a 6.23 ERA and slate-worst 8.91 xERA. Burke is giving up a .260+ ISO to both sides of the plate and has allowed 13 barreled balls this season, placing him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers. The White Sox bullpen, which has seen a fair amount of work over the last couple of days, checks in with a bottom-10 ERA, xFIP, BB%, and HR/9 Rate. Overall, it’s a great spot for the A’s to mash some homers and they check in with a slate-leading 5.7 implied run total.

Favorite ATH Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bat: Nick Kurtz

Seattle Mariners vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

The Mariners’ offense has been one of the bigger surprises in recent weeks. They’ve been among the best offenses in baseball and against RHPs L2Weeks (357 PA), their results are as follows: .798 OPS (5th), .354 wOBA (3rd), .190 ISO (7th), 141 wRC+ (2nd), and 39.6% HardContact% (2nd). They’re also 3rd in MLB with 15 stolen bases over the last two weeks and are tied for second with 20 HRs. The Mariners’ bats should be licking their chops at the prospects of facing Cal Quantrill, who goes into his fifth start with a slate-worst 8.31 ERA backed up by a still-awful 7.02 xERA, 5.32 xFIP, 2.08 WHIP, and a meager 9.8% kRate which is lower than his 11.0% BB%. Having a higher walk rate than strikeout rate is a major sign of a struggling pitcher. Miami’s bullpen also owns an MLB-worst 4.90 xFIP and an MLB-low 18.6% kRate so there is plenty to like about the Seattle bats even after Quantrill is retired. The only major negative surrounding this stack is the fact that the Mariners will be at home in the very pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park, which has rated out as the #3 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season and Seattle is averaging just 3.62 runs/gm at home (versus 5.50 runs/gm on the road). But, outside of park factor, everything else points toward Seattle being a worthy team to stack up.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena

Bargain Bat: Jorge Polanco

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves (LHBs Preferred) vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Braves lineup have a < 5% pOwn%. Outside of a stellar start in the Bronx on April 2nd, Zac Gallen’s 2025 results have been pretty underwhelming thus far. Across his 27.2 IP, Gallen has procured a 5.60 ERA, 4.43 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and 92 Stuff+ Rating. He’s been particularly bad against lefty bats, which is why we’ll prefer the Braves’ lefties here (though, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Sean Murphy still have some upside in this matchup). In 67 PA vs. LHBs this season, Gallen has accounted for a 7.43 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, .419 opp wOBA, .259 opp ISO, and 2.03 HR/9 Rate. The D-Backs’ bullpen also checks in at 21st versus LHBs and RHBs. The Braves have been awful on the road thus far, averaging just 2.85 runs/gm, so we’ll have to hope they shake off that trend. However, they have been one of the better offenses in baseball against RHPs over the last week, accounting for a .276 AVG (6th), .819 OPS (6th), .362 wOBA (6th), 129 wRC+ (7th), 17.3% HR/FB Rate (3rd), and they’ve hit nine HRs (T-1st). The roof being open at Chase Field tonight also gives a small bump to hitters. Perhaps there is a dash of homerism mixed in here but I do believe we’ll see some Braves’ homers tonight.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), HOU

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Brent Rooker, ATH | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYY

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

2B/SS Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is < $4,100 on DraftKings

3B/SS Jorge Polanco, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B/3B Santiago Espinal, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH| DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

2B Luke Keaschall, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

2B Tim Tawa, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

3B/OF Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

OF Jordan Beck, COL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Trent Grisham, NYY | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Chandler Simpson, TB | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael King (RHP), TB

1B Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Friday home run parlay time! Reminder: If you have access to normal sportsbooks and are tailing this, you can likely find better payout odds. On PrizePicks, if both of these guys hit a homer, it’ll return a 12.5x (+1250) payout.

Matt Olson MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

Brent Rooker MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!