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Top DFS Offers 4/21/25 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Tyler is off today so no DFS vid!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Aaaand we’re back! My vacation has come to an end and all I have to show for it is a rough case of Covid and a sunburn. I can’t say that I’m out here feeling rejuvenated but I am excited to get back to baseball! Monday will set us up with a quality six-game slate that will get underway at 6:40 ET. At first glance, things look somewhat balanced between pitching and offense for this six-gamer, but I could see things falling more in favor of the arms on this slate. That appears to be reflected in the Vegas data as only four teams (ATL, DET, CIN, NYM) have higher than a 4.0 implied run total. I’m not seeing much in the way of weather issues, so that’s always a plus. Let’s see if I can avoid a dud with my first MLB newsletter back from vacay. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/21 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SD at DET (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some stiff 15-20 mph winds here but they’ll be blowing right-to-left across the field.

• PHI at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Any impactful rain should hold off until after the game. 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

• STL at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is a band of storms that should hold north of the ballpark but there may be a low chance for a delay here just in case a straggling storm sweeps over the area. But that seems unlikely. Fairly warm with temps in the upper-70s and light winds IN from center/right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ATL

Schwelly got beat up for the first time this season last Tuesday, giving up 6 ER across 4.2 IP of work on the road in Toronto. But nearly all of the damage (five of the six earned runs) came in one blow-up inning… it happens. We’ll look for him to bounce back now that he’s back at home (+25.3% more FPPG at home) against a Cardinals team that is currently riding a four-game losing skid. Schwellenbach still possesses excellent numbers through his four starts and 24.2 IP in 2025 -- 2.55 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, and 23.4% kRate. He also owns a slate-best 14.6% SwStr%, suggesting his kRate should probably be closer to 30%, and he has allowed a low 27.3% FlyBall%.

The Cardinals have been around a league-average offense versus RHPs, posting a 103 wRC+ (ranks 17th) and .721 OPS (14th). They’ve also displayed subpar power, with a .143 ISO (20th) and 28.2% HardContact% (25th). In terms of strikeouts, their usual one-thru-three hitters are tough customers -- Lars Nootbaar (15.2% kRate vs. RHPs), Nolan Arenado (8.2%), and Brendan Donovan (9.0%) rarely strike out. However, there are plenty of Ks to be had behind the top of the lineup with guys like Willson Contreras (32.2% kRate vs. RHPs), Jordan Walker (32.8%), Pedro Pages (30.6%), and Nolan Gorman (25.0%). The Braves (-198 ML) are pretty easily the heaviest favorites on this six-game slate and the ATL hitters are finally starting to give their pitchers some run support, especially at home where they’re leading the MLB with a .293 AVG. The dud in his last start also pushed Schwelly below the $10k threshold on both sites, so he should garner plenty of consideration today.

Max Meyer (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CIN

The five-figure price tag on FanDuel will make Max Meyer a riskier investment but at $7,600 on DraftKings, he’s going to be an intriguing option. He has looked extremely sharp across his four games this season, and he fell just one out shy in his first outing from posting quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in all four starts. He brings a 2.63 ERA, alongside a slate-best 2.92 xFIP and 27.6% kRate into start number five. Meyer’s most used pitch, his slider (40.6% usage, 33.3% PutAway%), has induced a whopping 47.4% Whiff%.

The Reds just hung an absurd 24 runs on 25 hits against the Orioles yesterday. Even if you take away the nine runs and seven hits that they got off of positional players pitching over the final two innings, it was still an absolute beating. On the season, the Reds rank inside the top 10 vs. RHPs in most meaningful offensive metrics, but Meyer has held offenses like the D-Backs, Mets, and Braves in check and those Cincy bats should certainly come back down to earth this evening. The Reds have also put up a 26.7% kRate and 35.6% Whiff% against RHP sliders which, as mentioned, is Meyer’s top pitch type, so the Ks should be there for the 26-year-old righty.

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIL

Outside of Robbie Ray’s 24.7% kRate, the rest of his numbers have been ugly. His 17.6% BB% is flat-out awful, and his 4.19 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, and 1.55 WHIP are concerning, at best. However, these DFS price points are low enough to where the risk may be worth it. Ray has only allowed 15 hits across his 19.1 IP, so the walks are truly his undoing right now. In his defense, the 33-year-old Ray may have a bit more rust to shake off than most starters as he only has 53.1 IP under his belt since the beginning of the 2023 season, so the sloppy start is not totally unexpected. He may be past his prime but Ray still has the stuff to be a top-flight pitcher, the location just needs to improve… drastically.

Ray will land in a solid spot as he’ll be pitching in his second home start of the season (Oracle Park: #8 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) against the Brewers, who have not been great against lefties. In 335 PA vs. LHPs this season, the Brewers have put up a lackluster .235 AVG, .632 OPS, .285 wOBA, .094 ISO, and 79 wRC+. Their 7.2% Walk Rate versus lefties is also the 6th lowest in MLB, which is a plus for the walk-happy Robbie Ray. I believe it’s pretty simple here with Ray -- if he keeps the walks in check, he likely has a strong game. If not, he’s going to struggle to get through five innings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. TOR

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.7k | at MIA

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $9.3k | at HOU

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

The Braves bats have come alive of late, particularly in the friendly confines of Truist Park. In 255 PA vs. RHPs at home, they’re rocking a .300 AVG, .857 OPS, .377 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and 39.4% HardContact%. They’ll match up extremely well versus Erick Fedde who has posted a slate-worst 89 Stuff+ rating, suggesting the quality of his pitches just isn’t up to par. Fedde has leaned on the sinker (39.4% usage) and cutter (29.8% usage) as his top two pitches this season. Against those two pitch types from RHPs, the Braves are hitting .324 (ranks 2nd) with a .423 wOBA (2nd) and .206 ISO (8th). Also, in 77 PA vs. Fedde, the current Braves roster owns a monster .426 AVG, .486 wOBA, and 10.4% kRate. Backing up Fedde will be a Cardinals bullpen that ranks bottom 10 in the MLB in ERA, xFIP, WHIP, kRate, and opp AVG. Vegas is pinning the Braves with a slate-leading 4.9 implied run total.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

San Diego Padres vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

The Padres are banged up with several key players (Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Lockridge) on the IL, and it would also seem very unlikely that Luis Arraez will be in the lineup today after an ugly collision at first base in last night’s game against the Astros, which appeared to knock Arraez out. Nonetheless, they will land in an intriguing spot versus Keider Montero today. Montero only has one start under his belt this season -- a five-inning, 5 ER outing against the Brewers last Wednesday in which he allowed three homers. Across 103.1 IP at the MLB level, Montero has put up a lackluster 4.96 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 19.5% kRate. Home runs have been a major issue for Montero given his career 1.92 HR/9 Rate and 18.8% HR/FB Rate. Montero threw either the slider or four-seamer on over 65% of his pitches last week. Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Padres have posted a .286 AVG (2nd), .363 wOBA (5th), and 14.8% kRate (lowest). Again, the Padres’ lineup is not at full strength right now, and the Tigers’ bullpen has been excellent thus far, but Montero is a pitcher that this lineup can do some damage against.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts

Bargain Bat: Gavin Sheets

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

All nine hitters in the confirmed Tigers lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Randy Vasquez has pitched to a sharp 1.74 ERA through his first four starts but, without looking, I’m willing to bet that he has one of the largest gaps between his ERA and xFIP/xERA among all MLB starters [who have multiple starts this season]. Vasquez’s 6.31 xFIP and 5.71 xERA are easily the worst marks among starting pitchers on this slate, and those figures suggest some MAJOR regression is due. Vasquez has posted a meager 9.3% kRate against a 16.3% BB% and he has benefitted heavily from a low .219 opp BABIP. His Stuff+, Location+, and Pitch+ are all below 95. The fact that he has maintained a sub-2.00 ERA through four starts is nothing short of a mild miracle.

The Tigers’ offense has been a pretty solid one to target this season, particularly when they’re at home. Across 228 PA vs. RHPs at home, they’ve posted an excellent .276 AVG, .815 OPS, .359 wOBA, 141 wRC+, and 18.4% kRate. The Padres’ bullpen does currently own an MLB-leading 1.57 ERA so most of the damage that Detroit puts up will likely need to come against Vasquez, but if they jump on him early, San Diego may not deploy their top BP arms.

Update: I like this stack a little less with Kerry Carpenter (hamstring) not in the confirmed lineup but, again, we’re shooting for low-owned upside potential here.

Favorite DET Bats: Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres

Bargain Bat: Zach McKinstry

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

2B/SS Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is < $4,100 on DraftKings

C JT Realmuto, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

3B/OF Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Austin Hays, CIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

2B Luisangel Acuña, NYM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Gavin Sheets, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B/OF Gavin Lux, CIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Alex Verdugo, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

2B Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF Dane Myers, MIA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Note: No HR Calls contest today. It will return tomorrow!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Ozzie Albies MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Pete Alonso MORE than 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!