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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A doozy of a Friday slate awaits with 13 games on the main slate ticket! Keep an eye on the weather today as there is a decent chance that one or two of these games will get knocked off the slate due to a possible postponement. For a slate of this size, pitching isn’t the best but, on the flip side, that means we’ll have no shortage of hitters/stacks in quality spots. Let’s get right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR at BAL (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Persistent rain is currently falling in Baltimore throughout the afternoon and it’s likely going to hang around throughout the evening. It would be a surprise if they end up playing this game tonight. If they do somehow play, temps will be in the 40s with 15 mph winds IN from center. Nasty stuff. For the purposes of this newsletter, no players from this game will be mentioned.

• SF at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Trouble spot #2, albeit it’s not quite as dicey as Baltimore. The same batch of rain that’s drenching Baltimore may eventually make its way up to New York. So this game could start in light rain but the heavier stuff may make its way there in the middle/later innings. So a PPD is certainly on the table here. If they play, temps will also be in the mid-40s here with 10-15 mph winds IN from center/left.

• ATL at TB (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-70s temps with 10+ mph winds OUT to right. Solid hitting conditions. Low-end chance of some rain in the later innings which could spark a delay.

• BOS at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cold temps in the low-40s.

• NYM at OAK (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.3k | vs. COL

Pivetta had a near-perfect season debut against the Braves where he covered seven shutout innings allowing just a single hit. He then got knocked around a bit by a quality Cubs offense in his second start but Pivetta should be able to rebound tonight. So far, Pivetta has pitched to a solid 1.00 WHIP and 2.70 ERA, which is backed up by a so-so 4.00 xFIP. His kRate only sits at 20.0%, which is low by his standards -- Pivetta posted a 28.9% kRate in 2024 and 31.2% kRate in 2023. Across 13.1 IP in Spring Training, Pivetta notched a much more characteristic 32.1% kRate, so the strikeouts will probably get going sooner rather than later.

He will certainly draw a plus matchup with the Rockies in town away from Coors Field. In 162 PA vs. RHPs on the road this season, Colorado owns an MLB-worst 45 wRC+ while hitting for a meager .191 AVG, and they’ve acquired a huge 30.2% kRate. The Padres (-218 ML) are the heaviest favorites on this monster slate, and I’d expect around six strong innings out of Pivetta this evening.

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ATL

Bradley has some volatility to him but also has a ton of upside with the ability to rack up some big strikeout numbers. Through 11.0 IP this season, he has posted a sharp 3.24 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 31.8% kRate. While this is an entirely different ballpark from the out-of-commission Tropicana Field, Bradley does seem to pitch better in front of the home crowd and has averaged +42.8% more FPPG at home.

The Braves’ offense has been held in check for most of the season, and they’re coming off of an extra innings game versus the Phillies, which also included a 2 1/2 hour rain delay that didn’t end until 1 AM. Then they had to hop on a flight down to Tampa, so there may be some tired hitters in the batter’s box tonight. In 177 PA vs. RHPs on the road, the Braves have hit just .167 with a 50 wRC+ and a lofty 29.9% kRate. Hitting conditions are perhaps the best on the slate at George Steinbrenner Field this evening, but that may not stop Taj Bradley from having an excellent outing.

Sean Newcomb (LHP), BOS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | at CWS

If you want to roll the dice on a cheap pitcher, Sean Newcomb makes as much sense as anyone out of the value tier. Newcomb had a strong spring, pitching to a 0.63 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, and 24.5% kRate across 14.1 IP. In his two regular season starts, the numbers aren’t as pretty (8.2 IP, 5.19  ERA, 4.31 xFIP, 2.19 WHIP, .400 opp AVG, and 22.0% kRate). But the kRate remains decent and he built up to 94 pitches in his last outing, which is a positive sign for his potential to pitch deep into a game. Newcomb has largely served as a reliever over his MLB career and hasn’t made more than four starts in a season since 2018.

Of course, the main reason Newcomb gets a spotlight today stems from his matchup with the White Sox. The White Sox have the 5th fewest plate appearances versus LHPs so far this season (71), so it’s a small sample size. But in that time versus lefties, they’ve struggled to a .194 AVG, .538 OPS, .241 wOBA, .104 ISO, 58 wRC+, and 23.9% kRate. Weather conditions are very favorable for pitchers tonight in Chicago and the Red Sox (-162 ML) are tied as the third-heaviest favorites on the slate. Overall, I’d say there’s a pretty good chance we can squeeze five strong innings out of Newcomb in this spot, with five to seven Ks along the way, and a good shot at snagging the win bonus.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CHC

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.9k | at SEA

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIL

Reese Olson (RHP), DET | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | at MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Detroit Tigers vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

This Detroit lineup may not possess many household names, but they have been among the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching in the early goings of the season. Across 282 PA vs. RHPs, the Tigers are hitting .291 (ranks 2nd) with an .888 OPS (1st), .387 wOBA (1st), .217 ISO (5th), and 159 wRC+ (1st). Five hitters in their projected lineup own a .400+ wOBA against RHPs.

David Festa was promoted from Triple-A today to make this spot start with Pablo Lopez going on the 15-day IL. Festa made his MLB debut last season, pitching 64.1 IP in 2024 and posting so-so numbers: 4.90 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, and 38.9% HardHit%. He was great from a strikeout standpoint, notching a 27.8% kRate, and the Tigers do tend to strike out (24.5% kRate vs. RHPs). But Festa is still a guy that this lineup can do some damage against. Festa struggled in the spring, pitching to an awful 11.91 ERA, .373 opp AVG, and 1.94 WHIP across 11.1 IP. He also hasn’t found major success across his two Triple-A starts this season. The Twins do have a quality bullpen, but if the Tigers jump on Festa early and often, Minnesota may not roll out their best BP arms in potential low-leverage situations. Hitters throughout the entire Tigers lineup range from affordable to dirt cheap so they’re an economical stack to target as well.

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter

Bargain Bat: Dillon Dingler

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

The Rays have posted some quality offensive numbers versus RHPs thus far, ranking 4th in AVG (.276), 8th in wRC+ (120), and they’ve limited their strikeouts (18.2%, 3rd lowest). As a Braves fan, I can’t help but grit my teeth when Bryce Elder is on the mound. He pitched well enough to earn an All-Star appearance in 2023, but the regression monster caught up to him in the second half of that season and he’s been a poor MLB starter ever since. Dating back to July 2023 (132.1 IP), Elder has acquired a 5.92 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .352 opp wOBA, and 16.6% kRate. There just isn’t any reason to have much faith in him at the MLB level. The Braves bullpen may be fatigued heading into this game as they saw heavy usage across the recent three-game series versus the Phillies, which included an extra-innings game last night, and they’ve pitched an MLB-high 14.1 IP over the last three days. So, if Elder gets shelled early, Atlanta will be limited on BP options. Finally, hitting conditions in Tampa may be the best on the slate. Temps are going to be in the mid-70s with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right field. The Rays are tied for second on this slate with a 5.3 implied run total.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero

Bargain Bat: Kameron Misner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Athletics vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

It’s not exactly difficult to find a low-owned stack on a massive 13-game slate like this one. That said, the Athletics should fly under the radar as 8-of-9 hitters in the projected lineup have a < 5% pOwn%. They’re a boom-or-bust lineup but currently rank 4th in MLB with 19 home runs, so we’ve seen plenty of pop out of those bats. The Mets will roll out RHP Griffin Canning tonight, who has pitched well through his first two starts in 2025. But Canning is far from infallible, following a 5.19 ERA season in 2024 where he gave up plenty of bombs (1.63 HR/9 Rate) alongside a 41.7% HardHit%. The Mets have had one of the better bullpens in MLB this season so the bulk of the damage from an A’s stack may need to come against Canning. In early sample sizes, the A’s temporary home at Sutter Health Park has ranked out as a top-10 hitter’s park. It is currently No. 8 in overall Park Factor and No. 9 in Home Run Factor. 10-15 mph winds will also be blowing out to left tonight, so it’s a good spot for some homers.

Favorite ATH Bats: Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler

Bargain Bat: Jacob Wilson

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Going for another Friday home run parlay. At the time of these picks, PrizePicks didn’t have a Riley Greene HR prop posted, so I went with o3.5 total bases, which will cash in the event of a Greene HR. If this hits, it will return 17.5x the payout but, if you have access to actual sportsbooks and want to tail, you may be able to find better parlay odds on these two picks.

Brandon Lowe MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

Riley Greene MORE than 3.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!