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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Monday sets up as an all-day baseball affair with games running from the afternoon until late into the night! Eight games will make their way onto the evening main slate. Every team now has a few games under their belt in the new season, and while the statistical sample sizes remain small, there are some data points that we can begin to extract and put toward our DFS approach. Let’s dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣3/31 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT at TB (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps around 80 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/right.

• CHC at ATH (10:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Chilly temps around 50 degrees with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left/center. There are some scattered showers in the area this evening so a delay is a possibility.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, many starting pitchers are not going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. ATL

Glasnow will be the lone pitcher with a five-figure salary today, but he may very well be worth the spend-up against my 0-4 Braves, who have struggled mightily at the plate to begin the 2025 campaign. Glasnow looked extremely sharp in the spring, pitching to a 2.11 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and a monster 45.2% kRate across 11.0 IP. In his final ST start, he got up to 73 pitches and cleared five innings while striking out nine hitters, so we can estimate that he’ll be ready to handle somewhere in the vicinity of an 80-90 pitch workload tonight.

The Braves just got swept in the four-game series against the Padres, and their 18 combined hits were the lowest in the franchise's first four games since 1937. They head into Dodger Stadium tonight with a 42 wRC+ (2nd lowest in MLB), .484 OPS (2nd lowest), and 26.1% kRate (7th highest). Glasnow and the Dodgers (-225 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate, and if you can find some viable cheap bats, Glasnow should be the go-to spend-up today.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

Rasmussen should garner some consideration today out of the mid-range. Injuries have kept him off the mound for much of the last two seasons, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been impressive. Last season, Rasmussen only threw 28.2 IP, mostly out of the bullpen, but he posted an excellent 2.83 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, and 30.2% kRate in that time. He’s a pitcher who has shown great plate command and doesn’t walk many batters (career 6.5% BB%), and he features a heavy fastball arsenal that sits upper 90s. He got up to 74 pitches in his final ST start ten days ago so he is another guy who should be expected to throw around 80-ish pitches in his first outing of the regular season.

The Pirates’ offense has gotten off to a sluggish start, hitting just .184 with a 76 wRC+ and 22.0% kRate. They have put a good chunk of their baserunners on via the walk and currently lead the MLB with a 15.2% BB% but, once again, Rasmussen isn’t historically a guy who walks many batters. The Pirates have just two hitters in their projected lineup who had above a .332 wOBA against RHPs last season and there are a fair amount of potential strikeouts to be had up and down the Pirates’ order. As a reminder, the Rays are using George Steinbrenner Field (the Yankee’s spring training facility) as their home ballpark this season due to Tropicana Field being heavily damaged by Hurricane Milton back in October. This park’s dimensions mirror the current Yankee Stadium and the Florida heat and humidity will likely make it a prime spot for offense as the weather continues to warm up. So we’re probably not going to lean on pitchers too often when they’re at this ballpark, but Rasmussen is going to make plenty of sense today. The Rays (-205 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and the Pirates own a lowly 3.3 implied run total.

Ben Brown (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.1k | at ATH

Dipping down into the value tier, we’ll land on Ben Brown. Brown made his MLB debut last season and pitched 55.1 IP. He made eight starts and came out of the bullpen in seven games, and he enters the 2025 season as the Cubs’ No. 5 starter in the rotation. His overall numbers in 2024 were rock solid -- 3.58 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, .203 opp AVG, 1.08 WHIP, and 28.8% kRate. Strikeout upside is Brown’s major appeal and he steadily held a kRate north of 30% at every level of the minor leagues in recent years. He also covered 2.2 innings on 65 pitches out of the bullpen in one of the Tokyo Series games against the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago and racked up five Ks in that time.

I don’t see myself attacking the Athletics too much this season. They have several hitters with some real pop and a handful of bats who simply do not strike out very much. So far in 2025, the Athletics have posted a low .211 AVG and subpar 93 wRC+ next to a 20.5% kRate. If Brown brings his A-stuff tonight, I imagine he can clear five innings and rack up anywhere from five to eight strikeouts along the way, which we’d certainly be happy with at these price points.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jackson Jobe (RHP), DET | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.4k | at SEA

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. WAS

Miles Mikolas, (RHP), STL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Joey Estes (RHP), ATH

The Cubs are one of the top stacks to target on Monday’s slate, and it’s not because this game is in a minor league park, it’s because Joey Estes is on the mound for Oakland. Estes has struggled in his limited MLB time, posting a 5.16 ERA and 5.41 xFIP with just a 16.8% kRate and a troubling 1.77 HR/9 over 137.2 innings. He also had a rough Spring Training where he ended up with a 7.56 ERA, 6.01 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .338 opp AVG, and 13.3% kRate over 16.2 IP. The Cubs’ lineup is built to punish righties. Kyle Tucker in the two-hole makes this an intimidating order, while Ian Happ historically thrives against RHP out of the leadoff spot. Michael Busch adds power from the left side, Seiya Suzuki provides solid production from the right, and Dansby Swanson still puts plenty of great swings together. After that, the lineup gets thinner, but Pete Crow-Armstrong’s elite speed is at least a threat at the bottom of the order.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson

Bargain Bat: Pete Crow-Armstrong

San Diego Padres vs. Luis L. Ortiz (RHP), CLE

There is nothing spectacular about Luis Ortiz, who brings a career 4.87 xFIP and 17.9% kRate into his fourth MLB season. Ortiz also got rocked in spring ball, pitching to an awful 10.13 ERA, 6.34 xFIP, 1.98 WHIP, and .295 opp AVG across 18.2 IP. His 15.1% BB% also nearly matched his 16.1% kRate in Spring Training. We’re still dealing with some small sample sizes, but in 89 PA versus RHPs so far this season, the Padres have posted a productive .284 AVG and 127 wRC+ while striking out just 16.9% of the time. The Pirates’ bullpen has also struggled early on with an ugly 1.86 WHIP in their combined 14.0 IP. I’ll be going to the Padres’ lineup for my home run call today, looking for Jackson Merrill to go yard.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts

Bargain Bat: Jake Cronenworth

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kyle Hart (LHP), SD

Eight hitters in the current projected Guardians’ lineup have a < 5% pOwn%. Kyle Hart’s only MLB experience came back in the shortened 2020 season where he threw just 11.0 IP. Whether it plays into it or not, this will be his first MLB appearance in front of an actual crowd. Hart spent last year in the KBL where he had a fantastic season and won their version of the Cy Young Award. But he’ll now have to deal with MLB-caliber hitters, and he was another guy who had a rough spring, pitching to a 9.39 ERA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 19.4% kRate, and gave up three home runs.

In 45 PA versus LHPs so far in the young season, the Guardians have posted a .308 AVG, .931 OPS, 8.9% kRate, and 153 wRC+. Cleveland’s lineup will be more formidable if Jose Ramirez (wrist/day-to-day) gets back in the lineup but there are still several other bats to like in this matchup.

Favorite CLE Bats: Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, Lane Thomas (Add Jose Ramirez to this list if he’s playing)

Bargain Bat: Jhonkensy Noel

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3× the wager.

Steven Kwan MORE than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Jackson Merrill MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!