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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Opening Day is in the books and now we set our sights on day two and the first Friday slate of the season! We’ll have a nice eight-game slate ahead of us this evening. Teams are, of course, still near the top of their pitching rotation so there are plenty of quality arms to choose from but we also have a handful of offenses that own at least a 4.8 implied run total. So, overall, this will feel like a reasonably balanced slate between pitching and hitting/stacks. Let’s jump right into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣3/28 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL at SD (9:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): Temps in the 50s with 10 mph crosswinds blowing left to right.

• CHC at ARI (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The Chase Field roof will be open this evening. Air temps in Phoenix should be around 80 degrees at first pitch.

• DET at LAD (10:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Roughly 60 degrees with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, many starting pitchers are not going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DET

Yamamoto is the only SP on the slate who already has a 2025 “regular season” start under his belt with his Tokyo Series outing 10 days ago. While he only threw 72 pitches in that game, Yamamoto was able to clear five innings while holding a talented Cubs lineup to one run on three hits and eventually earning the win. Of course, there’s only so much we can learn from a five-inning sample size but Yamamoto was sharp in his 90 innings of work last season, pitching to a 3.00 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 28.5% kRate. He’ll draw a decent matchup today against a Tigers lineup that features five hitters who had at least a 24.1% kRate vs. RHPs in 2024, including three with a 30+% kRate. It also never hurts to be backed up by the stacked Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers (-230 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the day.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.4k | vs. ATH

I have some reservations on Castillo because he did not look great in the spring where he pitched to a 5.84 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, .286 opp AVG, and 14.3% kRate across 18.0 IP. But, again, Spring Training is meant for shaking the rust off, and, for guys like Castillo who were guaranteed to make the 2025 rotation, he could have also been working/experimenting with some things on the mound. Castillo will draw his first start of the regular season at home, where he was much more effective last season. To no surprise, T-Mobile Park rated out as the No. 1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2024 and Castillo produced home splits of: 3.15 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 27.4% kRate, and 4.6% BB% -- significantly better numbers than his road splits. Castillo will face off with the homeless Athletics who struck out eight times versus Logan Gilbert across 7.0 IP last night, ultimately ending with a 33.3% kRate. In 97 plate appearances versus the current Athletics’ roster, Castillo has held them to a .233 AVG while racking up a 29.9% kRate. As long as the low kRate from the spring doesn’t bleed over into his regular season debut, Castillo should be in a prime spot to post a quality DFS score.

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | at HOU

I’m not a big fan of any of the cheap pitchers on this slate, whether it be due to a poor matchup or concerning form in the spring. So we’ll just dive to the bottom of the barrel, at least on DraftKings, where Megill is priced at a flat $6k. Megill had about as strong of a spring training as any pitcher on the slate, pitching to a solid 3.47 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 27.3% kRate across 17.0 innings. He also only allowed four walks (6.1% BB%) and one home run (0.53 HR/9) in that time. The Astros still have some quality bats in their lineup, but they may be less potent overall compared to last season. They managed just three runs on seven hits yesterday. Megill should primarily be considered an SP2 target on DraftKings and, like most cheap pitchers at this point in the season, we’re mostly hoping to squeeze five decent innings out of him with a handful of strikeouts along the way, which I’d say is a realistic possibility for Megill this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k | vs. ATL

Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k | at MIA

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

The D-backs are shaping up as a strong stack with the Chase Field roof open and Jameson Taillon on the mound for Chicago, and they’ll lead the slate with a 5.3 implied run total. Taillon’s 3.27 ERA last year might look solid on the surface, but a career-low 18.5% kRate and some favorable luck suggest he’s due for regression. For what it’s worth, Taillon also pitched to a rough 6.75 ERA across his 10.2 IP in the spring, and he gave up five homers (4.22 HR/9 Rate) in that time as well.

Arizona lost Christian Walker at first base, but Josh Naylor is more than a serviceable replacement. He posted a .224 ISO and a low 15.7% strikeout rate against righties last year. Eugenio Suárez still provides pop, evidenced by his Opening Night dinger, and Corbin Carroll brings an elite power-speed combo to the top of the order and is coming off of a stellar spring where he hit for a .400 AVG with four homers and posted a 1.182 OPS. Ketel Marte continues to be one of the game’s best leadoff hitters, balancing patience, contact, and speed. Toward the back of the lineup, the D-Backs have guys like Pavin Smith, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, and Jake McCarthy who are all capable of contributing on the offensive end and can help turn things over back to the top of the lineup. I’ll also be going to the D-Backs today with my home run call, looking for Ketel Marte to go yard!

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Pavin Smith

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

It’s going to be tough not to love the prospects of an Orioles stack on a routine basis throughout this season. Their lineup is simply chock full of impressive young talent, and that was on full display on Opening Day when they put 12 runs up on the board on 14 hits, including six homers. Kevin Gausman is no slouch, but he’s entering his age 34 season, and, as we all know, Father Time is undefeated. Gausman’s 4.22 xFIP in 2024 was his worst since the 2017 season when he was still with the Orioles, and his 21.4% kRate was his lowest since the 2018 season. Gausman only pitched through seven innings in the spring so he may not be expected to get very deep into this game. He also posted a 7.71 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, and surrendered a couple of homers in those seven ST innings. Due to their extensive offensive onslaught, which extended well into the later innings, Baltimore forced Toronto to deploy five different relievers yesterday, so the Blue Jays will likely be limited on who they’re able to select from the pen tonight.

Favorite BAL Bats: Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Cedric Mullins

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

In the projected lineup, all nine Padres' hitters are currently projected for <10% pOwn% with eight hitters at <5% pOwn%. Reynaldo Lopez pitched to a stellar 1.99 ERA last season, which was more impressive considering he transitioned from being a reliever to a full-time starter for the first time since 2019. However, his durability came into question, and he was forced to miss some significant time toward the end of last season. He did pitch to a strong 2.08 ERA in the spring (13.0 IP), but that low ERA was backed by an ugly 5.66 xFIP -- he also struggled to rack up strikeouts [in the spring] with just a 9.8% kRate and his fastball velo was down a couple of ticks compared to the 2024 season. The Padres have several bats who can cause issues for Lopez and force extended plate appearances, so I’ll be surprised if he makes it far beyond four innings pitched tonight. And, as a diehard Braves fan, I can go ahead and feel confident in saying that this ATL bullpen will have its fair share of struggles this season, at least until potential trades are made down the line.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Brandon Lockridge (or Jake Cronenworth if Lockridge is not in the lineup)

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Keep an eye out for the HR Calls tweet!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3× 15x the wager.

I’m going to experiment with some HR plays on Fridays and see how it works out. Today’s two-pick HR play will return 15x the wager, though, if you have access to various sportsbooks, you will likely be able to shop for better odds if you’re looking to tail!

Ketel Marte MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

Juan Soto MORE than 0.5 Home Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!