For those of you who play NFL DFS, the Week 1 episode of the new podcast, “LineStar Presnap” with LineStar NFL Analyst Michael Rathburn (@FantasyRath) and Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is now available. Give it a listen. There will be a new podcast weekly for each slate, so be on the lookout for that to help you get prepped for kickoff on Sunday. In addition, LineStar Fantasy Expert Ryan Humphries (@NitroDFS) posted his first NFL newsletter of the season. You should have received an email and can find it on the projections page as well, similar to the daily MLB newsletters. Are you ready for some football!?

Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Hey everyone! Hope your weekend is starting out well. This is a confusing slate to say the least. Last night, when I typically start my research for the next day’s slate, we had Scherzer and Hamels both available to us as they were supposed to be facing each other in the night game today. Then, the Nats/Cubs game was rained out and rescheduled as part of a double-header today. Scherzer is now pitching in the first game so he’s not available in the main slate and with the uncertainty of what time the second game will start, DraftKings removed the second game from the main slate all together. FanDuel, on the other hand, decided to get tricky and now they have moved up their main slate lock to 6:15 pm EST in order to include the second game. This means we do get Hamels, on FanDuel only, for the main slate. What we don’t know, however, is who is pitching for the Nationals. It’s all really quite confusing and I’m not sure why FanDuel is working so hard to include it. Seems easier to just get rid of it like DraftKings did. My original plan today was to only play on one pitcher sites because, as you’ll see, value pitching is ugly today making me not want to risk any money on some of the available SP2 options. Now, with this new wrinkle thrown into the mix I may honestly take the night off and focus on my NFL rosters. Speaking of NFL, there will be no newsletter tomorrow. With interest in MLB dropping dramatically this week and the main slate starting at the same time as kickoff tomorrow I’m going to comfortably assume that the majority of you won’t be paying any attention to baseball. I’ll be back on Monday to cover all the MLB slates during the week next week and then we’ll take the weekends one at a time until the season is done. Let’s get to it!

High Priced Pitching

Noah Syndergaard, NYM (vs. PHI) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $10.5K)

Thor checks in as the highest priced pitcher on both sites today and I absolutely think it’s justified. I do believe, however, he’s a bit overvalued on FanDuel and I find myself leaning toward Hamels who is also available on that slate (we’ll get to him in a minute). On DraftKings, he seems to be a bit undervalued coming in at $300 less than he is on FanDuel. Confusing right? Regardless, it’s a good spot for Syndergaard against a Philadelphia team that has a very high 24.1% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching. They certainly have some power with a .181 ISO and .324 wOBA but they are also taking a big park downgrade which should help alleviate some of that threat. The Phillies will be going from one of the best hitter friendly parks in baseball, Citizens Bank Park, which is eighth in runs scored and fourth in home runs allowed, to Citi Field which is dead last in runs and 23rd in home runs. Syndergaard has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the slate today at 25.1% and the highest swinging strike rate as well with 14.5%. He’s excellent to both sides of the plate with a 3.30 xFIP and 25.1% strikeout rate to lefties and a 3.40 xFIP with 22.8% strikeouts to righties. He’s a -143 favorite and the Phillies have the lowest implied total on the board at 3.2 runs. He’s your SP1 in cash on DraftKings (if you play cash on DraftKings today) and he’s an elite tournament option as well.

Cole Hamels, CHC (@WAS) (FD: $9.3K)

On FanDuel, Hamels is in the picture as he’ll be getting the start in the second game on the double-header today between the Cubs and Nationals. He’s $1200 less than Syndergaard but brings a similar floor/ceiling combination today. Their matchups are fairly even with the Nationals striking out 22.8% of the time to lefties (slightly less than Philadelphia against righties) but they have less power with only a .156 ISO compared to the Phillies’ .181 ISO against right-handed pitching. Their wOBAs are identical at .324. This tells me that Syndergaard has a higher ceiling with the extra strikeout upside but I would give the edge to Hamels in the floor category. This makes Hamels my preferred choice for cash games on FanDuel. He’s been insanely good since joining the Cubs at the deadline, going 4-0 in seven starts with a 1.00 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, and 43 strikeouts in 45 innings. He’s given up a total of five earned runs across those seven starts and has yet to allow a home run in a Cubs uniform. He’s particularly strong against left-handed hitters which is crucial as it will take away some key bats for the Nationals including Harper, Soto, and Eaton (it’s still weird they don’t have Murphy and Adams anymore). He has a 3.72 xFIP with 21.9% strikeouts. Opposing lefties have only a .078 xISO and .315 xwOBA against him this season. He’s solid, though not as good, against righties with a 3.89 xFIP and 23.6% strikeouts. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .201 xISO and .349 xwOBA against him. To be clear, I have zero issue with Syndergaard or Hamels today in cash games or tournaments. I think they are both fine options, in good matchups, with solid floors and ceilings. I prefer to take the savings on FanDuel, since it’s fairly significant, and use that extra cash toward my lineup.

Value Pitching

Matt Shoemaker, LAA (@CWS) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.8K)

He looked very good in his first start since March 31st. He’s missed basically the entire season rehabbing from surgery on his forearm but then he went into the American League version of Coors Field (Globe Life Park) in 95 degree heat and threw five scoreless innings allowing just two hits and a walk. He gets a much better matchup today against a struggling White Sox team who we’ve talked about a lot in recent weeks in this article. Chicago has an awful 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching with some power as displayed by their .174 ISO but little else with a .310 wOBA and only 32.2% hard-hits. Basically, they are either going to crush a bomb or strikeout. The definition of boom or bust. Since we obviously don’t have any stats to look at this year we’ll go ahead and check out the 2017 results. He had a 4.60 SIERA with 21.2% strikeouts and 11.6% swinging strikes. Left-handed hitters had a .220 xISO, .335 xwOBA against him while right-handed hitters had a .216 xISO and .338 xwOBA against him. Not ideal. The one positive take away here is the strikeout upside with an above average strikeout rate and a swinging strike rate that tells us it could have been even higher. That gives us a nice ceiling to work with, especially against this strikeout happy White Sox team, even if there’s no floor. The other elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is pitch count. He was on a 60 pitch limit the first game and went 62 pitches. I haven’t seen anything giving us an exact number this time around only that the “leash will be longer”. At this price point, if he can get to 80+ pitches and be as efficient as he was in the first game, it’s worth the risk. Due to all the uncertainly, I can’t recommend him in anything more than a tournament today and I definitely wouldn’t put any substantial amount of your bankroll behind him.

Gio Gonzalez, MIL (vs. SFG) (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.5K)

There is no nice way to say this, Gonzalez has been flat out garbage this season. He has a 4.76 SIERA with just 19.5% strikeouts and just 9.3% swinging strikes. He has a high 10.8% walk rate with a 1.53 WHIP. In the month of August, he went 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP. He had just 23 strikeouts with 13 walks in 31.1 innings of work. The only good I can see from all this is the .368 BABIP suggests he’s been at least a little unlucky. But that’s certainly not enough to give me confidence in using him. Your next question of course is then why the hell are we talking about him right now? Well, truth be told, as bad as Gonzalez has been, the Giants have been worse. They are dealing with a number of injuries which has forced players like Slater, d’Arnaud, Pence, and Tomlinson into regular playing time against left-handed pitching. This season, the Giants have a 21.6% strikeout rate with a .133 ISO and .283 wOBA against lefties. In the past 30 days, since all the injuries, that strikeout rate has jumped to 26.2% with a ridiculously low .095 xISO, .241 wOBA, and 49 wRC+. In the past two weeks, the strikeout rate has been at a pathetic 29.4% with a higher but still very low .127 ISO, .248 wOBA, and 53 wRC+. They are, without question, the worst team in baseball at the moment (from an offensive perspective at least). Does this mean that Gonzalez will automatically have a good start? Definitely not, but another positive about him is he’s on nine days rest after being acquired by the Brewers at the beginning of September but only making his debut today. He mentioned that it was time for a fresh start so perhaps the extra rest and increased motivation being on a new team that is in the middle of a playoff race will get him some of his old form back. Despite the matchup, I still can’t trust him as any more than a tournament option.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $3.6K)

Not the best park for left-handed power but Nimmo has hit half of his home runs this season while at home so he’s no stranger to success at Citi Field. He gets a matchup today with Eflin, who is infamous for his struggles with left-handed batters. He’s allowing a .220 xISO with 42.4% fly balls, and 14.1% HR/FB. Nimmo has a .263 ISO and 38.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Eflin throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time against lefties and Nimmo has a .228 xISO and .390 xwOBA against that pitch type.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B (DK: $4.3K, FD: 3.3K)

Shaw brings some nice power upside today to an otherwise weak position for offense. He’ll take on Chris Stratton who allows a .216 xISO with an 85.3% average exit velocity to lefties. Typically, he’s able to get away with his mistakes to left-handed hitters pitching in AT&T Park, which is the worst ballpark in baseball for left-handed power, but today with the park downgrade this should be a nice matchup to exploit. Shaw has a .284 ISO and 41.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Stratton’s three most used pitches are a fastball, curveball, and changeup. Shaw has a .354 xISO against fastballs, a .386 xISO against curveballs, and a .199 xISO against changeups.

Paul Goldschmidt, ARZ: 1B (DK: $5K, FD: $4.4K)

I usually prefer Goldschmidt against lefties but it really doesn’t matter. He has massive power to both sides of the plate with a .303 ISO and 53.5% hard-hit rate against lefties and a .243 ISO and 48.5% hard-hit rate against righties. Teheran, meanwhile, struggles with both sides of the plate allowing a .194 xISO to right-handed hitters. He’s giving up 39% fly balls with a 17.1% HR/FB and 35.2% hard contact. He throws a fastball, two-seam fastball, and a slider most often to right-handed bats. Goldschmidt has a .345 xISO against fastballs, a .380 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .195 xISO against changeups.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Nick Hundley, SFG: C (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.8K)

I may have recommended Gio Gonzalez as a value pitching option today but that doesn’t mean I don’t think Nick Hundley has a good matchup. He crushes left-handed pitching with a .639 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and a .234 ISO, .345 wOBA, and a 50.7% hard-hit rate this season. Gonzalez has a low 18% strikeout rate and a high 12.1% walk rate against righties. Hundley should be the lone bright spot in a very weak Giants lineup today.

Luke Voit, SEA: 1B (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.3K)

He’s still a value for the upside he brings, especially on DraftKings. Everytime it seems like his price is going to start climbing it falls back down again. It’s not a great ballpark, and Hernandez has been pitching better lately, but I still like Voit to put up some fantasy points in this spot. Since being recalled on August 2nd, he’s 22 for 73 (.328 AVG) with a .432 wOBA, and .313 ISO. So far, though it’s a small sample size, he’s been better against right-handed pitching with a .409 ISO, .467 wOBA, and 48.3% hard-hit rate. You have to keep playing him until the price gets to a point where we need to pause and reconsider.

Jake Cave, MIN: OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.5K)

One of my go-to value bats all season Cave is picking up steam. He’s had at least 19 FanDuel points (14 DraftKings points) in four of his last seven games. This season he has a .226 ISO and .356 wOBA with 38.1% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. Jorge Lopez allows a .199 xISO and .382 xwOBA with 44.9% hard contact. The strikeout rate is low at 17.2% and the walk rate is high at 13.1%. Cave should have no problem returning value today.

Stacks on Stacks

I'm excluding Coors Field. I like both of those teams today. Curious how the public will treat the Rockies as their implied total is lower than I expected. Walker Buehler is a talented pitcher but he's young and still figuring things out. If Colorado somehow doesn't get a lot of attention I'd definitely get some exposure to them.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Chris Stratton)

I alluded to it earlier but Stratton often benefits from pitching the majority of his games in one of the most pitcher friendly environments in all of baseball. Today will be a completely different story when he travels to Miller Park. Stratton has a high 4.64 SIERA with a low 17.6% strikeout rate and a high 1.41 WHIP. He’s particularly bad against lefties with just a 14% strikeout rate, and a 1.51 WHIP. That’s where I would start in this Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers have a lot of dangerous left-handed bats, especially since acquiring Moustakas and Granderson over the past couple of months. Yelich is my favorite here for obvious reasons. He has a .246 ISO and .397 wOBA against righties. Shaw, who we talked about on the home run watch list, is next on my list. Granderson (.199 ISO, .350 wOBA), Moustakas (.238 ISO, .347 wOBA) and Thames (.274 ISO, .340 wOBA) round out my priority list. I also love Jesus Aguilar with his .282 ISO and .381 wOBA and Lorenzo Cain with his .342 wOBA. If Keon Broxton makes the lineup he’s an interesting option as well. This Brewers team is loaded.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Jorge Lopez)

I’m not buying the gem that Lopez threw his last time out when he went seven innings, allowing just one earned run and picking up eight strikeouts. He wound up being the highest scoring pitcher on DraftKings that night. What a world. With cheap pitching being horrible today I think people could see his last time out and get on board with the idea of using him. His numbers still indicate he’s a pitcher to attack with bats and not one to use. He has a 4.80 SIERA with 18.9% strikeouts, 12% walks, and a 1.49 WHIP. I want to be on the other side of this matchup today. The Twins are far from an exciting team but there are certainly some pieces here that we could use in a stack. Eddie Rosario is where I would start. He has a .224 ISO and .366 wOBA against righties. We talked about Jake Cave in the value bat section today. He’s been hot recently and has moved up in the order as well. I’m hoping that improved lineup spot continues today. Jorge Polanco lacks power but he’ll get on base with his .372 wOBA. Similar to Polanco, Mitch Garver doesn’t have a ton of power but he has a strong .355 wOBA. Tyler Austin is currently day-to-day but if he does play he’ll bring a .252 ISO against righties into this game today. Sano has also been held out of the lineup recently but brings plenty of power upside, with a low floor, if he gets back in there tonight. Robbie Grossman has been swinging better lately but he’s much better against lefties so I’d leave him out. Same with Logan Forsythe. The Twins opened with a 5.3 implied run total.

New York Yankees (vs. Felix Hernandez)

The Yankees shockingly opened with a very low 4.3 implied run total that has now started to climb and currently sits at 4.5 runs. I agree Felix Hernandez has pitched a bit better recently after being briefly demoted to the bullpen but he still has a very long way to go. New York got some good news yesterday when they activated Didi Gregorius so they are one step closer to being a fully healthy club again. Gregorius should provide a boost to this lineup the rest of the way. Hernandez is particularly bad against lefties where he allows a .282 xISO and .399 xwOBA. I would start with them for stacking purposes today. That puts Gregorius near the top of my list with his .233 ISO and .351 wOBA against right-handed pitching. The switch hitting Aaron Hicks is next with a .197 ISO and .370 wOBA. You can then build around the lefties with the right-handed bats. Voit, who is underpriced, was discussed in the value section. He has a .409 ISO and .467 wOBA though in only 44 at-bats. Andujar is popping from my data sheet today with a .225 ISO and .364 wOBA. Torres continues his incredible rookie campaign with a .185 ISO and .348 wOBA. Finally, we have Stanton and McCutchen. I prefer both guys against lefties but they are always in play. I wouldn’t hesitate to use them if you needed them.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).