For those of you who play NFL DFS, the Week 1 episode of the new podcast, “LineStar Presnap” with LineStar NFL Analyst Michael Rathburn (@FantasyRath) and Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is now available. Give it a listen. There will be a new podcast weekly for each slate, so be on the lookout for that to help you get prepped for kickoff on Sunday. In addition, LineStar Fantasy Expert Ryan Humphries (@NitroDFS) posted his first NFL newsletter of the season. You should have received an email and can find it on the projections page as well, similar to the daily MLB newsletters. Are you ready for some football!?

High-Priced Pitching

Aaron Nola, PHI (@NYM) (DK: $11.8K, FD: $11.3K)

Nola took his first loss at home this season his last time out against the Cubs, going 5.2 innings allowing five hits and four earned runs including three home runs. He still did manage to salvage his day with eleven strikeouts, which helped him get to 23 DraftKings points and 38 FanDuel points. This shows just how strong his floor truly is. It was only the third time all season he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Honestly, I’m going to throw that game out. It was a weird situation where he had his start pushed up a day in order to set up his spot in the rotation for some crucial games down the stretch. As a result, he was on short rest, which can be a red flag. He’s faced the Mets four times this season with a 3-0 record. He’s allowed a total of four earned runs with 29 strikeouts in 25 innings. He had double-digit strikeouts in each of the last two starts against them. Needless to say, he’s been pretty dominant in this matchup. If we look at the season as a whole, Nola is one of the best in the business right now. He has a 3.43 SIERA with 26.5% strikeouts and 12.2% swinging strikes. He’s the only pitcher on the slate which a WHIP under 1.00 (0.97) and he’s forcing over 50% groundballs. He’s terrific to both sides of the plate including a 3.41 xFIP and 27.3% strikeouts to lefties and a 3.04 xFIP and 25.8% strikeouts to righties. As far as the matchup is concerned, it’s nothing to be worried about. The Mets are in the bottom half of the league against right-handed pitching with a 22.3% strikeout rate, .158 ISO, and .307 wOBA this season. Over the past two weeks, the strikeout rate has remained the same with the ISO falling to .130 and the wOBA falling to .294. So we’ve established we like Nola. How are we using him tonight? He’s not the priority for me. That would be Blake Snell, who I will talk about next. On FanDuel, it’s Snell in cash all day for me as he’s the cheaper option. On DraftKings, it’s a more difficult decision with Nola being $600 cheaper. If I can find that money, I’m paying up for Snell. But if I needed to “settle” for Nola in order to make my lineup work, I’d be perfectly okay with that. Don’t get me wrong, he’s an outstanding cash play. I just prefer Snell on this slate. Nola is an elite tournament option.

Blake Snell, TB (vs. BAL) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $10.7K)

I already spoiled the surprise but Snell is absolutely my favorite pitcher on tonight’s slate. His season long numbers, his numbers in the month of August, and his matchup tonight are all playing a role in this decision. We’ll start with the month of August where Snell won American League Pitcher of the month. He went 4-0 in five starts with a 1.04 ERA (2.76 xFIP) and 34 strikeouts in 26 innings of work. He allowed a total of three earned runs the entire month. He seems to be back to full strength after spending some time on the disabled list, as he’s now gone at least six innings in three straight starts. This season, Snell has a 2.02 ERA (lower than Nola) with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 14.4% swinging strike rate (both higher than Nola). His SIERA is higher than Nola but by the smallest of margins and the 1.01 WHIP is also only slightly higher than Nola. Basically, we are getting similar run prevention with higher strikeout upside. Like Nola, Snell is filthy against both sides of the plate. He has a 2.71 xFIP with 33.1% strikeouts against lefties and a 3.56 xFIP with 29% strikeouts to righties. The matchup is also better than Nola. Baltimore has been an improved team recently with some of the younger guys in the lineup but they are still very much struggling against left-handed pitching. This season they have a 24.9% strikeout rate with a .142 ISO and .297 wOBA. In the past thirty days, they have a 23.5% strikeout rate with a .143 ISO and a .295 wOBA. In the past fourteen days, they have a 22.2% strikeout rate with a .125 ISO and .292 wOBA. They are striking out just a little less (which won’t matter much against Snell) as the season progresses, but they are also losing their power. As I said before, in cash games, on FanDuel, this is a no brainer. He’s less expensive than both Nola and Carrasco. On DraftKings, being the most expensive pitcher, it’s not quite as clear-cut. I’m still prioritizing Snell because I love this matchup today, but I’m certainly not going to argue with you if you wanted to save a little money and play Nola instead. In tournaments, with all the available options today, it’s possible Snell gets overlooked being the highest priced pitcher and people want to save some money. He, like Nola, is an elite tournament option today.

Value Pitching

Chris Archer, PIT (vs. MIA) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.4K)

I’m pleasantly surprised by his price today. He has, admittedly, been a bit all over the place recently in terms of fantasy production, but he’s coming off a nice start against the Braves and his price only rose $100 on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel (wait, someone’s price increased more on FanDuel?) despite a much easier matchup today. Positive regression is on the table for Archer, who has a 4.56 ERA but a 3.81 SIERA and a .341 BABIP. He also has a 24.2% strikeout rate but a 13% swinging strike rate, suggesting his strikeout rate should increase a couple of more percentage points. The WHIP is high at 1.41 and the LOB% is low at 69.8% but I’m less concerned about that in this matchup. Miami has to actually get on base first for those numbers to become a problem. If we look at more recent trends, Archer’s ERA continues to rise, yet his SIERA continues to get better. Over the past month, he has a 5.25 ERA, which is nearly a run higher than his ERA this entire season, but the SIERA is down at 3.71. Over the past two weeks, the ERA is up to a very scary 6.30, but again, the SIERA is down to 3.53. Part of the reason for the high ERA but low SIERA is the teams he’s faced. Since the start of August, he’s faced the Braves twice, the Rockies (in Coors), the Brewers, and then the Twins and Cardinals, who are both hitting the ball better recently. The last time Archer faced Miami? Six innings, eight hits but only three earned runs and a whopping 13 strikeouts. The Marlins continue to trend in the wrong direction with a 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and a very, very low .118 ISO, .291 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. He’s a -198 favorite and the Marlins have an implied total of just 3.1 runs. He’s my SP2 in cash today, and while I think he’ll be popular, he’s still in play for tournaments as well.

Felix Pena, LAA (@CWS) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.8K)

Pena continues to get better as he gains more experience. Over the past month, he has an impressive 3.23 ERA and 3.70 SIERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 1.04 WHIP. He had some massive games during that span, including a 12 strikeout performance against a difficult Diamondbacks lineup and a seven strikeout performance against the Padres. He’s coming off of two very difficult matchups in a row against the Astros where he still held his own, putting up 28 and 31 FanDuel points and 13 and 17 DraftKings points. The DraftKings results sound less exciting but it’s actually helping us today because his price has dropped. He’s down $1000 on that site since mid-August and gets a great matchup today against the White Sox. Chicago, like many teams that are out of the playoff race now, is trending in the wrong direction. On the season, they have a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching with a .174 ISO and a .310 wOBA. In the last 30 days, the strikeout rate has actually increased to 27.1% while the ISO has dropped to .166 and the wOBA has stayed relatively flat at .313. A double-digit strikeout performance, at this price tag today, is absolutely in the range of outcomes in this spot. He can certainly be volatile, so I wouldn’t touch him in cash games, but the upside here for tournaments is off the charts.

Quick Thoughts on Kershaw:

It’s obviously going to come up a lot today, so I figured I’d give some quick thoughts on the Kershaw situation. He’s too expensive on FanDuel. Plain and simple. On DraftKings, there’s at least an argument to be made at his discounted price of $8.8K. I pulled all his game logs since the beginning of his career when pitching at Coors Field. He’s started 20 games, going 9-4 with a 5.32 ERA but a 3.24 xFIP. He has an 8.7 K/9 and a 1.4 HR/9. Personally, there’s too much risk to use a pitcher in Coors Field, even if they are named Clayton Kershaw. I know what you’re thinking too. You said the same thing about Marquez earlier this week and he threw a gem. My mistake that day was overestimating the talent on the Giants roster and giving them too much of a bump for hitting in Coors. Make no mistake, talent is not an issue in this Rockies lineup. They smoke left-handed pitching with a .194 ISO and .341 wOBA. If you need a reminder, feel free to watch the 505 foot bomb that Story hit the other night. If you want to go here, I won’t talk you out of it, but like I said, I just don’t think you need it tonight. You could make a case for either side of this game so the likeliest scenario for me is I’ll just stay away. There are plenty of other good spots tonight for both pitchers and bats. Let the rest of the field do the guesswork on this matchup.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 3B (DK: $5.3K, FD: $4.9K)

Really good spot for the Indians against a struggling Estrada, who isn’t very good to begin with but has been really struggling recently. Over the last 30 days, he has a 6.38 SIERA with 13.9% strikeouts and 11.3% walks. The WHIP is at a very stack friendly 1.94 and he continues to allow his trademark 57.3% fly ball rate with a 19.1% HR/FB and 38.4% hard contact. Honestly, you can pick almost any Cleveland player today for a shot at a home run, Ramirez just stood out the most. He has a .765 wOBA + ISO over his last 150 games and a .337 ISO with 39% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season.

Khris Davis, OAK: OF (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4K)

It is a good park shift for Gallardo going from Globe Life to O.Co but I’m not sure that’s going to be enough to save him. Davis, the current league leader in home runs with 40, has hit 20 of those home runs at home and 20 on the road. It really says a lot about the power that Davis has when he leads the league in home runs but plays the majority of his games in the park that’s ranked next to last in home runs allowed this season. Davis will bring a .317 ISO and 45.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season into this game tonight.

Wilson Ramos, PHI: C (DK: $4.3K, FD: $2.9K)

Steven Matz has actually been pitching quite well recently but right-handed hitters are still a problem. He has some of the most dramatic splits between the two sides of the plate of any pitcher in baseball. Against lefties, Matz has a massive 71.6% groundball rate with just 17.3% fly balls and 0.64 HR/9. Opposing lefties have a .088 xISO, .285 xwOBA, and just 13.3% hard contact! Incredible right? It’s a totally different story against righties where the groundball rate is nearly cut in half at 43.1% and the fly ball rate more than doubles to 40.2%. The flyball rate comes with a 16.8% HR/RB, well above league average, and a 1.70 HR/9. He allows a .195 xISO and 38.3% hard contact. It’s baffling to me that these results are coming from the same player. Long story short, this puts Ramos in a fantastic spot. He has a .598 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games and, more recently, is averaging a 50% hard-hit rate and 94.3 average exit velocity in the past two weeks. He’s an incredible buy tonight on FanDuel where he costs only $2.9K and most of the DFS community tends to overlook catchers since you aren’t required to use one on that site.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Billy McKinney, TOR: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.2K)

I know it’s not the best matchup in the world but it’s not like Carrasco isn’t prone to get blown up from time to time. That’s essentially his trademark, right? He either gets completely smashed or he throws a total gem. It’s hard to predict which guy will show up today, but what I do know is McKinney continues to rake and yet his price is staying relatively flat. Since being called up in August, he has a .358 AVG with a .466 wOBA, and .321 ISO. He has scored nine runs, hit four home runs, and driven in eleven in just 63 plate appearances. I wouldn’t necessarily prioritize McKinney tonight, but if you were in need of a salary saving outfielder to make a lineup that you really like work, I definitely don’t mind the play. Carrasco has allowed a .467 wOBA+ISO and 1.59 FP/PA to lefties over his last 20 starts. He’s far from unhittable.

Robinson Chirinos, TEX: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K)

It’s not completely clear if there will be an “opener” before Bassitt or if he starts the game from the beginning, but either way, he’s expected to get the bulk of the innings today and I’ve done my research based on him. He allows a .207 xISO and .345 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Chirinos has a .212 ISO and a .332 wOBA with a massive 48.2% hard-hit rate. The risk with Chirinos is always his high strikeout rate but that’s definitely decreased today against Bassitt, who only has 17.2% strikeouts against right-handed hitters.

Yairo Munoz, STL: 2B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.3K)

There’s not a lot of corner infield position value that I like today, so those are likely places I’ll spend up at instead. So I’ll make this recommendation even though I technically already fulfilled my middle infielder value requirement with Chirinos. Sometimes roster construction leads you in a different direction, so we have to be willing to be flexible. Munoz is a steal today on FanDuel at near minimum salary and a lock in my cash games, even if he hits at the bottom of the order (though the Cardinals tend to bat him near the top when there is a lefty on the hill). First of all, he’s hot right now with two double-digit fantasy performances in his last three games. On the season, he has a .221 ISO, and .334 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Norris is allowing a .244 xISO and .376 wOBA to right-handed batters, albeit in limited appearances this season. If I add 2016 and 2017 data into the model, it’s still a .194 xISO and .348 xwOBA allowed. I think I’ll add a section to the newsletter next season called “FanDuel’s Ridiculous Price of the Day,” because this would be right up there with Enrique Hernandez being minimum salary against a lefty earlier this week. Take the free square today and move on.

Stacks on Stacks

Colorado is playing at home but they are facing Kershaw. They are in play but they will not be chalk. I’m not mentioning them below because, as I mentioned earlier, my plan is to just avoid this situation entirely. I do believe the Dodgers will be one of the chalk stacks tonight facing a right-handed pitcher and getting the Coors Field bump. Yes, Gray has been better recently, but this Dodgers lineup is absurd. I’m also going to exclude the Indians tonight, who should get a lot of attention against Marco Estrada. I love them today. It’s a big slate, so I wouldn’t worry a ton about ownership, but those two teams stand out to me as the obvious choices.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Yovanni Gallardo)

Park upgrade or not, there’s no hiding from this powerful Oakland lineup when you allow a .223 xISO, .370 xwOBA to right-handed hitters and a .175 xISO, .366 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. That also comes with an incredibly low 13.7% strikeout rate, a very high 10.8% walk rate, and an ugly 1.55 WHIP. As if you needed any more confidence in this suggestion, Gallardo’s strikeout rate and walk rate is trending in the wrong direction. Over the past 30 days, he’s had just 12.4% strikeouts with 10.5% walks. And over the past two weeks, he’s had 9.8% strikeouts and 9.8% walks. He’s in a lot of trouble tonight. The Athletics are trending in the exact opposite direction. On the season, they have a .194 ISO, .331 wOBA, and 39.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. In the past 30 days, those numbers have increased to a .205 ISO and .339 wOBA with 41.4% hard-hits. Over the past two weeks, it’s increased even more with a .209 ISO, .343 wOBA, and a 35.9% hard-hit rate. Okay, so the hard-hit rate dropped a little, but you get my point. Oakland is smoking the baseball right now. Davis, Chapman, Olson, Laureano, and Lowrie all have a wOBA+ISO over .600 against right-handed pitching. Piscotty is just behind them at .530. I don’t hate Semien or Lucroy if you’re doing a full stack, as they fill difficult positions. I wouldn’t prioritize them though. I really prefer Pinder against lefties but there’s always the chance he sees one out of the bullpen later in the game and he’s very affordable. Oakland opened with an implied total of 5.2 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Daniel Norris)

The surface numbers on Norris for this season aren’t bad but the advanced stats are showing something different. Plus, he’s had limited appearances, so the sample size is small. If we pull up data going back through the 2016 season, we get much worse picture. He has a 4.45 SIERA with a 1.51 WHIP and 38.7% hard contact. He does have respectable strikeout stuff, with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 10% swinging strikes, but that’s definitely not enough to keep me from attacking him. He’ll see a lot of right-handed bats today, where he has a 4.67 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and 40.4% hard-hit rate. As I mentioned earlier, opposing right-handed bats have a solid .194 xISO and .348 xwOBA against him. I love the Cardinals today, particularly on FanDuel where they are super affordable. Carpenter, despite the lefty on lefty matchup, has a .674 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching. Harrison Bader has a .665 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and an 89.9 mph average exit velocity against lefties over the past two weeks. I talked about Munoz, the best value play of the day on FanDuel. Yadier Molina is always in play as part of Cardinals stacks, however he is currently listed as day-to-day, so keep an eye on that. Marcell Ozuna, a career lefty killer, is swinging a hot bat recently with a .323 AVG, .380 wOBA, and .202 ISO since the start of August. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez both have numbers that declined this season against lefties, but their career numbers are outstanding, so I’m not shying away from them. The Cardinals opened with an implied total of 5.2 runs that has fallen a bit to 4.9 but that’s still a solid total. I’ll be watching the line closely the rest of the day before making a final decision.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Joe Ross)

It’s been a long time since Joe Ross toed the rubber in a major league game. His last start was July 9th, 2017 before he ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s made just a handful of rehab starts with one at Single-A, one at Double-A, and then two at Triple-A. His rehab performances were fine, but this is a guy coming back from 14 months of rehab and has now thrown only 26 innings this season, and he's being called up in a difficult matchup against the Cubs. I’m going to side with Chicago here and Vegas seems to agree as they have an implied run total that opened at 4.9 and has climbed to 5.1 runs this morning. Schwarber is very appealing, with a .672 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against righties and a 50% hard-hit rate in the past two weeks. We’ve talked a lot about Baez in recent weeks, so you shouldn’t need me to tell you he’s in a great spot today. Daniel Murphy has been outstanding as a member of the Cubs and he’ll bring a .617 wOBA+ISO into this game today. Anthony Rizzo has a .611 wOBA+ISO with a 90 mile per hour average exit velocity. They are my priorities. Kris Bryant is getting himself back into full strength mode and is always on the radar. I also love Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist in this spot.

The Bullpen Report

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