For those of you who play NFL DFS, the Week 1 episode of the new podcast, “LineStar Presnap” with LineStar NFL Analyst Michael Rathburn (@FantasyRath) and Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is now available. Give it a listen. There will be a new podcast weekly for each slate that will come out on Friday, so be on the lookout for that to help you get prepped for kickoff on Sunday. In addition, LineStar Fantasy Expert Ryan Humphries (@NitroDFS) posted his first NFL newsletter of the season. You should have received an email and can find it on the projections page as well, similar to the daily MLB newsletters. Are you ready for some football!?

Aaron Nola, PHI (@NYM) (DK: $11.8K, FD: $11.3K)

Nola took his first loss at home this season his last time out against the Cubs going 5.2 innings allowing five hits and four earned runs including three home runs. He still did manage to salvage his day with eleven strikeouts which helped him get to 23 DraftKings points and 38 FanDuel points. This shows just how strong his floor truly is. It was only the third time all season he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Honestly, I’m going to throw that game out. It was a weird situation where he had his start pushed up a day in order to setup his spot in the rotation for some crucial games down the stretch. As a result, he was on short rest which can be a red flag. He’s faced the Mets four times this season with a 3-0 record. He’s allowed a total of four earned runs with 29 strikeouts in 25 innings. He had double-digit strikeouts in each of the last two starts against them. Needless to say he’s been pretty dominant in this matchup.  If we look at the season as a whole, Nola is one of the best in the business right now. He has a 3.43 SIERA with 26.5% strikeouts and 12.2% swinging strikes. He’s the only pitcher on the slate which a WHIP under 1.00 (0.97) and he’s forcing over 50% groundballs. He’s terrific to both sides of the plate including a 3.41 xFIP and 27.3% strikeouts to lefties and a 3.04 xFIP and 25.8% strikeouts to righties. As far as the matchup is concerned. It’s nothing to be worried about. The Mets are in the bottom half of the league against right-handed pitching with a 22.3% strikeout rate, .158 ISO, and .307 wOBA this season. Over the past two weeks the strikeout rate has remained the same with the ISO falling to .130 and the wOBA falling to .294. So, we’ve established we like Nola. How are we using him tonight? He’s not the priority for me. That would be Blake Snell who I will talk about next. On FanDuel it’s Snell in cash all day for me as he’s the cheaper option. On DraftKings, it’s a more difficult decision with Nola being $600 cheaper. If I can find that money I’m paying up for Snell but if I needed to “settle” for Nola in order to make my lineup work I’d be perfectly okay with that. Don’t get me wrong. He’s an outstanding cash play I just prefer Snell on this slate. Nola is an elite tournament option.

Jameson Taillon, PIT (vs. CIN) (DK: $9.9K, FD: $9.3K)

If you’re uncomfortable with the matchups that Severino and Wheeler have to deal with today, you could go here instead and save some salary. I’m strongly considering Taillon in cash games today as I think he presents the best floor/ceiling combination for the price. As I said before, I like Severino and Wheeler’s ceiling but I have concerns about their floor. I think Taillon can at least keep pace with those guys, relative to his price, and give you more salary to work with for your bats. He’s facing the Reds who don’t have an overpowering lineup these days. Over the past 30 days, they have a 21.6% strikeout rate with a low .157 ISO and .317 wOBA. On the season, they have a 20.6% strikeout rate with a .145 ISO and a .323 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They have Votto, who never strikes out and is still an unbelievable hitter but the power numbers are way down, which makes him less of a threat. They also have Gennett and Suarez who are both outstanding. Outside of them, what’s left? It’s also a huge park downgrade for them. Taillon, meanwhile, has an impressive 3.82 SIERA with 22.2% strikeouts and 10.7% swinging strikes. He went 3-1 in August, with a 2.38 ERA and 3.66 xFIP including three consecutive games with seven strikeouts or more. He went at least six innings in each start including a complete game in Coors Field. The recent strikeout upside, his ability to pitch deep into games, the matchup (including the massive park downgrade for the Reds), and his price tag are all very appealing to me today. Would it surprise me if Severino or Wheeler went out and were the highest scoring pitchers on the slate? Definitely not, but in terms of floor/ceiling combo and the fact that we save some extra money for bats, I’m feeling more confident about going here. Vegas seems to agree, as Taillon is one of the largest favorites on the main slate at -195 and the Reds have an implied total of just 3.5 runs.

Value Pitching

Tyler Glasnow, TBR (@TOR) (DK: $9.5K, FD: $6.7K)

He’s not a value pitcher on DraftKings today but we have to talk about him on FanDuel at this price tag. You’re really disappointing me this week FanDuel. First, you allow Enrique Hernandez to be minimum price against a left-handed hitter. Now, Tyler Glasnow, who has been on fire recently, is only $6.7K? What does this guy have to do to raise his price? He’s had 20 fantasy points or more in six straight starts including a 40 point performance his last time out in a really difficult matchup on the road in Cleveland. He went seven innings, allowing just two hits, an earned run with six strikeouts. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing was he did it in just 79 pitches. I knew he was going to be much cheaper today on FanDuel as they have been pretty far apart on his price since he became a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, but I figured it would still be higher than this. Since joining Tampa Bay, Glasnow has a 3.23 ERA, which is very close to his 3.31 xFIP with 38 strikeouts in just 30.2 innings of work. The BABIP is low, so there’s at least some indication he’s getting better results than he should be but he’s also faced some pretty stiff competition including the Indians, which we already talked about, and the Red Sox. He also faced Toronto during that span, who he will take on today, and went five innings allowing only two hits and one earned run with six strikeouts. There’s no way to avoid this today. He’s simply undervalued on FanDuel, by quite a bit, even in a less than ideal matchup. The Rays are comfortable -135 favorites and the Blue Jays have an implied total of just four runs.  

Nick Pivetta, PHI (@MIA) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.2K)

A 1-3 record with a 4.34 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break isn’t exactly what I’m looking for in a pitcher but there’s still a lot to be optimistic about. That high ERA comes with a solid 3.09 xFIP and a high .355 BABIP. This means he is pitching better than what has actually happened on the field and the hitters he is facing have been getting a bit lucky. Things should even out. He still carries plenty of upside as well with 55 strikeouts and only 11 walks in just 44.2 innings of work. That equals an 11.08 K/9 and only 2.22 BB/9. In addition to the upside, he’s also had success this season against the Marlins. He’s faced them twice, the first game way back on April 5th, where he went 5.2 innings allowing four hits, zero earned runs and striking out nine. More recently, on August 8th, he faced them again, going six innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs, and striking out seven. I still hear people out there talking about how they don’t play pitchers against the Marlins. You have to let that go. They absolutely went through a period where they were a pretty frustrating team to target and it would make me pause from time to time when considering a pitcher against them but things have changed, players are gone, and you shouldn’t be afraid to use a pitcher in this spot. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, including a 22.3% strikeout rate, a .122 ISO, and a .293 wOBA. Pivetta will be popular but I see almost nothing that I’m comfortable pivoting to today on DraftKings for a similar price. You can definitely make a case for Michael Kopech on FanDuel where he is actually $200 cheaper. The Phillies opened at -150 favorites and are now currently at -166. The Marlins have an implied total of just 3.3 runs. Pivetta makes for a great play in both cash and tournaments.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Mike Trout, LAA: OF (DK: $5.9K, FD: $5K)

The best player in baseball is a little cold recently by Mike Trout standards but the perfect meal to snap him out of it will be served up by none other than Bartolo Colon. If you’re not familiar with Colon’s work (Really? He’s been in the league for like 50 years.) let’s just say he’s weak against right-handed hitters. He’s allowing a .286 xISO, 2.23 HR/9, and 37.6% hard contact to right-handed batters this season. Trout has a .753 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. Despite the “cold” streak (he’s still put up fantasy points in every game) Trout still has nearly 40% hard-hits and an average exit velocity of 90.8 miles per hour over the past two weeks. Let’s also not forget this is a huge park upgrade for him. 

Jesus Aguilar, MIL: 1B (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.9K)

He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball for a long stretch earlier in the season but has been able to stay out of the spotlight since. Clearly he’s still getting things done as he’s currently tied for seventh in the league with 31 home runs. He has a very impressive .267 ISO and 40.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Quintana is allowing a .210 xISO to right-handed hitters including a 14.4% HR/FB and 35.2% hard contact.  

Robinson Cano, SEA: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.7)

Unfortunate suspension aside, Cano has jumped right back into being a productive hitter since returning to the Mariners in mid-August. He gets a nice matchup today with Andrew Cashner, who’s allowing a .227 xISO with 39% fly balls, 14.1% HR/FB, and 34.3% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Cano has a solid .577 wOBA+ISO against righties over his last 150 games and he’s been hitting the ball well recently with a 45.5% hard-hit rate during the past two weeks. In addition, he profiles well against Cashner who throws a fastball (31.4%), two-seam fastball (28.5%), and changeup (19.7%) most often. Cano has a .266 xISO against fastballs, a .198 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .226 xISO against changeups.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Gary Sanchez, NYY: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.3K)

It’s no secret that Gary Sanchez is having a disappointing season. His health has been an issue and his effort has come into question. He has a miserable .185 AVG and .296 wOBA this season with 24% strikeouts. Yikes. Despite that, we know that the ceiling on Sanchez is still high and this current price tag is not a fair representation of his talent, even if he is in a terrible slump. Even with the poor performance, he still has a .215 ISO and 14 home runs despite missing nearly all of July and then all of August. His BABIP is well below average at .193 which also suggests he’s hitting better than the numbers indicate. Perhaps if he’s healthy, now he can get into a rhythm just in time for the playoffs. I’ll be buying low on the talent because if he gets it going, the price won’t stay like this for very long.  

Jake Bauers, TB: 1B/OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.3K)

Bauers is pretty cold lately, falling way down in the Tampa Bay order, but his opponent today, Aaron Sanchez, is even colder. Sanchez has been miserable this season against left-handed hitters with a 6.18 xFIP and only 14.6% strikeouts with 16.2% walks! More walks than strikeouts means a high WHIP, which is currently at 2.21. What does a high WHIP mean? You want the bats. Bauers has a respectable .511 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching. He crushes fastballs, with a .322 xISO and .345 xwOBA and Sanchez happens to use that pitch nearly 40% of the time to left-handed hitters. Despite the recent cold streak, Bauers has still managed a 50% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour over the past two weeks. When he makes contact, he’s hitting it well.  

Kevin Kiermaier, TB: OF (DK: $4K, FD: $2.4K)

I’m actually going to stick with the Tampa Bay Rays theme. I don’t typically like to highlight two players from the same team but these left-handed bats on Tampa are really standing out to me today. They are super affordable, they get a huge park upgrade going from “The Trop,” which is 25th in runs scored and 26th in home runs allowed to the Rogers Centre, which is 21st in runs scored and 11th in home runs allowed, and they have a fantastic matchup today against Aaron Sanchez. Kiermaier is off to a hot start in September going 5 for 11 with a .627 wOBA and .333 ISO. For someone priced as low as he is, he has a solid .506 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against right-handed pitching. He’s a punt play, particularly on FanDuel, with some upside.   

Stacks on Stacks

Coors is on this slate once again and we don’t have the dilemma of German Marquez tonight. He threw an absolute gem again yesterday.  He’ll never win the NL Cy Young with guys like Scherzer, deGrom, and Nola but can we at least agree that Marquez should be in the conversation? He’s been absolutely filthy. Anyways, today we have an average and a below average pitcher on the mound in Coors, so both of those teams are very much in play, particularly Colorado who is facing a lefty and they absolutely smoke lefties. I'm building my main lineup around Arenado and Story today. I’ll exclude both teams from the stack list since they are so obvious and will get a lot of attention tonight.

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Homer Bailey)

The Pirates having an implied total of five runs in PNC Park tells you all you need to know about their matchup today with Homer Bailey. He’s 1-13 in 19 starts this season, he went 0-5 in five starts in August, and he’s lost six straight decisions. His one win this entire season came against the Dodgers back on May 13th where he still allowed 10 hits in only five innings of work but somehow escaped with only three earned runs. He has a very low 15% strikeout rate and a very high 1.65 WHIP and 42.1% hard contact rate.  Stacking this team has to start with Polanco (.269 ISO, .363 wOBA) and Marte (.172 ISO, .340 wOBA). Adam Frazier, surprisingly, has an excellent .194 ISO and .360 wOBA against righties this season. I say surprisingly based on the isolated slugging percentage as I don’t view him as a player with power, despite being talented. Francisco Cervelli is almost always in the catcher conversation as one of the better hitters in baseball at that position. Finally, Corey Dickerson has a .188 ISO and .336 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Outside of that group, someone like Colin Moran and his .328 wOBA can be viewed as a value piece of a stack. I’m not a big Josh Bell guy but he would be next on the list if you needed someone. The Pirates are a nice combination of upside and value today.

Texas Rangers (vs. Jaime Barria)

By default, I think we have to have interest in either of the teams don’t at Globe Life Park today. With a game at Coors Field and all the horrible pitchers we want to stack today, it’s possible this game doesn’t get anywhere near as much attention as it should. The total of ten runs is only a half a run lower than the current total at Coors Field yet I think it will carry half the ownership. It makes for a great pivot option if you need one. Barria has an ugly 4.53 SIERA with only 18.4% strikeouts. He’s allowing 40.7% fly balls with 11.5 HR/FB and 36.7% hard contact. Texas is a left-handed heavy team but it’s important to note that Barria has reverse splits. This doesn’t mean I don’t like the lefties but just don’t be afraid to including right-handed hitters in your lineup. He’s allowing a .253 xISO and .378 xwOBA to righties. This gives a nice boost to guys like Chirinos, Beltre, and Andrus. You have to love Choo (.226 ISO, .393 wOBA), Mazara (.197 ISO, .356 wOBA), Odor (.235 ISO, .356 wOBA), Profar (.201 ISO, .342 wOBA), and Gallo (.264 ISO, .337 wOBA). Guzman is also on the radar with a .194 ISO and .328 wOBA. Willie Calhoun has already reportedly been called back up, so I’d have interest if he cracks the lineup as well. The Rangers opened with a 4.8 implied run total that is slowly climbing to 4.9 runs. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they were the highest scoring team on the slate tonight. 

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Aaron Sanchez)

No point in burying the lead here, I’ve mentioned a couple of Rays’ players in the article so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I like them today. Sanchez has a 5.15 SIERA with a low 17.6% strikeout rate and a high 12.4% walk rate. He’s allowing a .170 xISO and .364 xwOBA to lefties and a .206 xISO and .371 xISO to righties. Choi is my favorite player from this team today. He has an outstanding .250 ISO and .385 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I mentioned Bauers and Kiermaier as well, who have been cold recently but still has plenty of upside. Kiermaier is dirt cheap and is starting to heat up in the month of September. Brandon Lowe, in limited plate appearances, has an impressive .226 ISO and .372 wOBA against righties. Mallex Smith doesn’t have much power but he makes up for it with his stolen base potential and a .344 wOBA. CJ Cron is another power bat that has a .232 ISO and .329 wOBA against righties. Since the beginning of August, Joey Wendle is batting .343 with a .378 wOBA and only 14% strikeouts. He has sixteen runs scored, nineteen runs batted in and five stolen bases during that span. Finally, the newest member of this team, Tommy Pham, has a solid .170 ISO and .323 wOBA, although I prefer him against lefties. Like I said, there’s a lot to like about this Tampa Bay team, and depending on how the lineup looks when it gets posted, there should be plenty to work with here. The Rays opened with a 4.6 implied run total which is well above their season average.  

The Bullpen Report

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