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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

What’s going on everybody! Welcome to a full 15-game Tuesday slate. There’s a lot to talk about today so we are going to get right to it. We’ve got a group of high-priced and talented pitchers that I want to spend some extra time sorting through. We have a TON of bats today including an interesting scenario at Coors Field that we’ll talk about. It’s hot around most of the league outside of the west coast and we also have a rare rain threat down in Texas today that will be worth keeping an eye on. As always, give me a follow on Twitter (@GP_Landry) or hit me up on the LineStar chat (@glandry) with any feedback or questions about the newsletter. Let’s get to work!

High Priced Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. MIN) (DK: $12.3K, FD: $11K)

Verlander didn’t have the greatest month of August, going 3-3 in six starts, but there’s still plenty to be encouraged about and my perception of him hasn’t changed in the slightest. For starters, he had an ugly 5.29 ERA but a fantastic 2.57 xFIP. The BABIP was also very high at .366. It seems like, for the most part, he just caught some bad breaks. The strikeout upside was still there, with 50 punch outs in 31.2 innings and only five walks. He had three double-digit strikeout games in the six starts. Beyond August, his numbers this season are as good as you’d expect. His ERA (2.78) is nearly identical to his 2.75 SIERA and his 33.7% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate are by far the best numbers on the slate. Impressively, he only walks 4.5% of batters and is the only pitcher today with a WHIP below 1.00. His splits to both sides of the plate are outstanding. Against lefties, he has a 2.69 xFIP with a 39.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walks. He has a 0.89 WHIP and a 90.1% LOB%. Against righties, he has a 3.61 xFIP with a 29.2% strikeout rate and only 3.8% walks. The WHIP is exactly 1.00 and the LOB% is still really good at 81.3%. The red flag with him is always the same. He allows 52.2% fly balls and a 12.1% HR/FB rate. That’s come back to bite him in the ass recently as he’s given up nine home runs in his last six starts. He gets a matchup today with Minnesota, who has a solid .182 ISO but a below average .319 wOBA over the past 30 days. They also strikeout 22% of the time to right-handed pitching. The Astros are huge favorites today at -295 and the Twins have the lowest implied total on the board by nearly a full run at 2.7. This is your top arm of the night.

Alright, with Verlander out of the way we have a group of three pitchers who all have a strong case to be considered as our other high-priced option. Before we get to them, for the record, I really like German Marquez today. He’s been really good and the Giants have been really bad. But he’s pitching in Coors Field and it’s a full 15-game slate. We just don’t need to put ourselves in that situation. That’s the type of play you save for a small slate. So, we’ll look elsewhere instead. It’s been a while since we’ve done some blind resume but I thought it might be a good way to help us break it down today and give these guys a priority order. We’ll start with some basic core stats that we always want to be aware of:

It’s pretty even at this point. Player one is the only one of the three with a SIERA higher than his ERA, indicating possible regression. But since the SIERA is under 4.00, I’m not overly concerned. Pretty much the opposite with Player 2, who has an ERA of 4.00, which is a red flag for someone who costs this much, but the lower SIERA helps with that. Player one has the lowest strikeout but the highest swinging strike rate, so it’s basically a wash. No real help here. Let’s look at some batted ball profiles:

Again, pretty similar here. A few things stand out to me. Player one is the only member of the group with a below average HR/FB and he also happens to allow the least amount of fly balls, so that gives them a slight edge. Player two is allowing the lowest amount of hard contact, which is a plus. Player three’s hard contact makes me nervous. Let’s check out splits against left-handed hitters:

Player two runs away with this one with by far the lowest xFIP, walk rate, xISO allowed, xwOBA allowed, and the highest strikeout rate. Player one is next, with a better xFIP, strikeout rate, walk rate and xwOBA than player three. Splits against right-handed hitters:

This is much less clear-cut than how they are against lefties. Player one has the lead here with the lowest xFIP, xISO, and xwOBA. Right now, I’m feeling the best about player two, followed by player one, and then player three is last in my rankings. Let’s look at their opponents today:

Go figure. The person I was feeling best about has the worst matchup today. It’s never easy is it? Player three, of course, has the best matchup by far, which puts them right back in the mix as an option today just as I was getting ready to eliminate them. If I separate these guys into cash and GPP rankings, it will give us some more clarity. In GPP, I would keep the order that I already suggested: Player two, one, and three. Player two is the most talented on paper but has the worst matchup. The masses should shy away from him because of this and pivot to one of the other guys who are still good pitchers but have an easier road today. Player two is an elite tournament option as a result. In cash, I’m going to go player one, three, and then two. I prioritize the matchups more in cash games. Before we finalize the rankings, let’s look at one last piece:

Now that we have a good idea of how we are prioritizing these guys and the direction we want to take, there is one final set of information to consider. I call this the outside factors and it includes their pricing, how Vegas is viewing them, and of course weather and ballpark. These can be a good tiebreaker if you’re really on the fence about two players. I’m switching up my cash game order. Player three is an equal favorite but his opponent has a lower implied total and he is in a much more favorable pitching environment today. They are also basically the same price on FanDuel but he’s $1K cheaper on DraftKings. If I were going to use any of these three in cash games it would be player three, one, and then two. My GPP order hasn’t changed. I still like player 2 the most. I’m assuming by now you’ve figured out who these guys are, but just in case you haven’t: Player 1 is Mike Clevinger; Player 2 is J.A. Happ; and Player 3 is Rich Hill.

Value Pitching

Trevor Richards, MIA (vs. PHI) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.6K)

Down in the $7K or under range, Richards has the highest ceiling available today. His recent performances are definitely encouraging. In the month of August, he only had one game where he allowed over three earned runs in five starts and he had seven strikeouts or more in three of the five. That equals 32 strikeouts in just 26 innings of work. He had a 4.85 ERA but a much better 3.93 xFIP and the BABIP is near average at .286. He also faced some very stiff competition including the Braves, Yankees, and Red Sox. I’m confident he’ll continue to improve based on these numbers and how he faired in those matchups. He even faced this same Philadelphia team at the beginning of August and went five innings allowing just one earned run and striking out seven. Looking at the bigger picture, on the season he has a respectable 4.34 SIERA with 23.6% strikeouts and 10.1% swinging strikes. The walk rate concerns me at 10.3% but I’m willing to overlook that due to the upside he brings. I mentioned the success he already had against the Phillies, which is unsurprising, considering their very high 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This should give a nice lift to Richard’s ceiling today. They do have some power (.182 ISO, .325 wOBA) but it’s a big park downgrade for them going from very hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park, which is tenth in the league in runs scored and fourth in home runs allowed, to a very pitcher friendly Marlins Park which is 29th in runs scored and dead last in home runs allowed. Philadelphia also has the ability to go very left-handed heavy with Cabrera, Hernandez, and Santana all switch hitters and Herrera, Williams, and Bour (if he plays) all left-handed hitters. Richards is actually better against lefties, where he allows only a .124 xISO and a .302 xwOBA compared to righties, where he allows a .225 xISO and .370 xwOBA. If the Phillies go left-handed heavy (which I’m anticipating) it will play right into Richards’ strengths. He’s an underdog, so this is tournament only due to the risk but I like the strikeout potential here today at this price tag.

Cody Reed, CIN (@PIT) (DK: $5K, FD: $5.8K)

With SP2 being such a crapshoot for much of this season, I’ve become a bigger advocate of punting when possible in tournaments. It’s risky and doesn’t always work out, but when it does, it typically pays off well. When someone is priced way down in the $5K and below range but gets my attention from a numbers perspective, then I will generally have interest. Reed was deserving of his promotion to the majors after putting together some strong numbers as a starter in Triple-A. His 4-8 record in 17 starts isn’t ideal but the 3.92 ERA and 3.38 xFIP are. He has a 23.5% strikeout rate (105 strikeouts in 105.2 innings pitched), a 45% groundball rate, and had allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts before getting called up. He started in the bullpen, and outside of one bad game, he’s done well, allowing three earned runs (two of those in that one bad game) with seven strikeouts in nine innings pitched. He was finally inserted into the rotation last time out and was solid, going 4.2 innings allowing one earned run with three strikeouts. He had three walks, which I’d rather not see, but it’s to be expected with the pressure of making his first start. He did enough to get another crack at the rotation today and I’d anticipate him to be able to go a little further into the game now that he’s stretched out a bit more. That’s good news considering how inexpensive he is. I’d feel better about the matchup today if the Pirates struck out more. They currently own a 20.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. On the plus side, however, they offer very little threat in terms of power or production. They have a low .144 ISO, .302 wOBA, and an 88 wRC+. This is a great pitchers park with PNC being 26th in runs scored and 25th in home runs allowed. He stood out to me as a guy who could eat up some innings and keep the runs to a minimum for near the minimum salary for a pitcher. I think he can return value today, which won’t take much, and open up a lot of options for fitting in bats.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Justin Turner, LAD: 3B (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.7K)

He’s got two home runs in his last four games and he’ll look to make it three out of five tonight in a great matchup against the lefty Jason Vargas. Of the fourteen home runs Vargas has allowed this season, eleven of them have been to right-handed hitters. He’s giving up a .202 xISO with 35.1% hard contact. Over his last 150 games, Turner has a .770 wOBA+ISO and this season he has a .241 ISO and a ridiculous 51.4% hard-hit rate against lefties. Vargas throws his two-seam fastball nearly 40% of the time to right-handed bats and Turner has a .530 xISO against that pitch type this season.

Javier Baez, CHC: 2B/SS (DK: $5.8K, FD: $4K)

His case for the NL MVP award continues to strengthen and he’ll be in another great matchup tonight. He’s been crushing lefties all season and tonight should be no exception. He has a .658 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and a .281 ISO with 39.4% hard-hits this season against left-handed pitching. The recent form is insane. In the past two weeks, he has a 62.5% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour and an average distance of 266.6 feet.

Hunter Renfroe, SDP: OF (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.1K)

I’m going to have to stay off of chat today to avoid the hundreds of people who will be making “THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE” comments today. In all seriousness though, he’s one of my favorite players against left-handed pitching. He has a 2.03 FP/PA and a .656 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against lefties. This season, he has a .218 ISO and 45.3% hard-hit rate as well. Robbie Ray throws his fastball 55.6% of the time despite allowing a .195 xISO and .394 xwOBA against it. Renfroe smokes fastballs including a .244 xISO.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K)

Spoiler alert, I like San Diego a lot today. They have a great combination of upside and value. Reyes is a perfect example with his very cheap price tag but also his very impressive 2.13 FP/PA and .641 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. At the moment, he’s on fire with a hit in nine straight games and twelve of his last thirteen. He has a .417 AVG, .585 wOBA, and .528 ISO with eight runs scored, six home runs, and ten runs batted in during that span. He’ll be a core cash game play for me today against Robbie Ray, who’s allowing a .173 xISO and .341 xwOBA to right-handed batters.

Taylor Ward, LAA: 3B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.3K)

I wish he was just a little higher in the batting order but it’s really hard to argue with his recent productivity. This isn’t coming out of nowhere, as he was a first round pick and is the number eight prospect in the Angels organization. He got off to a bit of a slow start but has started to put it together recently, hitting safely in five straight games and scoring a run in three straight. We are dealing with a small sample size here (18 games) but he really stands out against lefties with a .261 ISO and .381 wOBA. Mike Minor is allowing a .264 ISO and .354 wOBA to right-handed hitters and this is a big park upgrade for Ward playing down in Texas today. He’s not a priority, as there are a lot of third basemen I like. But if I ended up here and needed the salary savings, I’d be fine with it.

Enrique Hernandez, LAD: (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2K)

Sigh. FanDuel, I love you. I really do. I get to use your platform to play a game every day, win a little extra cash, and give myself more reasons to watch the sports I love. But this is ridiculous. Hernandez is minimum salary today facing a left-handed pitcher. WHAT?! That’s a $2.2K difference compared to DraftKings. Now, I will say that Hernandez has been much worse against left-handed pitching this season than he has been in the past. Historically, Hernandez barely saw the field against right-handed pitching but this season he’s shown an ability to hit them well. In situations like this, I tend to side with the career numbers more where he has a .224 ISO, .351 wOBA, and 35.9% hard-hit rate. Even if you wanted to focus entirely on this season and argue that he’s been weak against lefties, you still can’t say he’s been weak enough to justify minimum salary. He’s a free square in cash on FanDuel today so lock it in and then work around him.

Stacks on Stacks

This is a huge slate so I’m not overly concerned about ownership, but I’ll exclude the Rockies at home for obvious reasons. There are plenty of stacks to like today and I can’t name them all, so don’t be afraid to disagree with me here. Normally, I would exclude both teams at Coors but today is presenting a really unique scenario. I want to talk about the Giants some more, so we’ll start there:

San Francisco Giants (vs. German Marquez)

I mentioned earlier that I liked German Marquez today but that I didn’t think you needed to take on that much risk on a slate of this size. He’s been my favorite pitcher this entire season from a DFS perspective. I’m shocked at how much I’m hearing about him already today and I’m even more shocked at the activity I’m seeing in Vegas. Could Marquez be chalk pitching at Coors Field? I’ve seen comments about him in our LineStar chat already and I’ve seen him mentioned on Twitter as well. The Giants opened with a 4.5 implied run total (which is already low for Coors Field) and it has fallen to 4.1 runs! That’s unheard of. Trust me, I know how good Marquez has been. Those of you who are faithful readers of the Daily Ledger know I’ve recommended Marquez almost every time he’s taken the mound on the road. But this is Coors. All it takes is a couple of mistakes for everything to go very, very wrong. The Giants may have a weak lineup right now but they are still major league baseball players taking swings at a baseball in a park that’s 5,200 feet above sea level. Marquez also has some red flags in his home/away splits. For example, on the road he has an impressive 0.94 WHIP but at home it turns to an ugly 1.62. This is pretty simple for me. If I’m playing in tournaments, I’m going to do whatever the field isn’t doing. You can really make a strong case for either side. If everyone is going to be on Marquez then I’m stacking the Giants. If everyone plays the Giants, then I will roll out some Marquez. Using a pitcher at Coors is only optimal if nobody else is doing it. It sounds like I’ll be doing the former. Would it shock me if Marquez went out there and threw a gem? No, definitely not. But a chalk pitcher at Coors is just a recipe for disaster. I’m not a huge GPP player but I may have to adjust my ratio of cash games to GPP games today to get some exposure to this situation.

New York Yankees (vs. Liam Hendriks and Frankie Montas)

We had to assume this day would come eventually. Oakland, realizing its starting rotation isn’t where it needs to be, is beginning to employ the Tampa Bay strategy of using an opener and then a follow pitcher. Why wouldn’t you? Look at what it’s done for the Rays. They are 74-63 on the season and 8-2 in their last ten games. They would be a game out of the wild card standings if they played in the National League. But they play in the ridiculously stacked American League and are a whopping 20 games out of first in the AL East despite being eleven games over .500. Anyway, it makes all the sense in the world for Oakland to try this out. They have a comfortable 5.5 game lead on the second wild card spot. Anything they can do to give themselves an edge heading into a likely playoff berth is a smart move. MLB DFS is going to be fun next year huh? There will probably be a half-dozen or so teams using this strategy, and trying to figure out who will be on the mound is going to be very frustrating. As far as today goes, neither of the pitchers who are going to take the hill are concerning, but this game is getting absolutely no attention. I’ve mentioned this before but anytime a team like the Yankees is getting little to no attention, I think we have to consider them. Yes, they’ve struggled recently, especially without Judge and Gregorius. But there are still some huge bats in this lineup and they have the ability to put up eight or more runs on any given night. We should be looking at single digit ownership here on a slate of this size, with a Coors game, and this also being one of the late games on the slate, which typically depresses ownership automatically. Voit (.429 ISO, .477 wOBA, 35 AB), Hicks (.201 ISO, .369 wOBA), Andujar (.227 ISO, .367 wOBA), and Torres (.190 ISO, .354 wOBA) are the priorities. Clearly, I’d rather Stanton against a lefty but he can still put one in the seats with his .209 ISO against righties. Gary Sanchez is back and provides an additional boost. Andrew McCutchen is now a member of this team as well, and despite a down season, perhaps a new team will give him some motivation. His .330 wOBA and 44.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching is nothing to scoff at. He can still put up numbers.

San Diego Padres (vs. Robbie Ray)

I’ve saved the best for last. As you’ve seen from my value bats and home run calls today, I have a lot of interest in the Padres. They are my favorite team to stack when they face a left-handed pitcher. Nobody ever plays the Padres because, well, they are the Padres. The majority of DFS players (somehow) don’t consider splits and just see a pitcher facing San Diego and lock them in. Today will be no exception as Robbie Ray is priced well and he carries a ton of strikeout upside. But San Diego can do a lot of damage against left-handed pitching. I already mentioned Renfroe, who has a .218 ISO and .343 wOBA against lefties this season. We also discussed Reyes who has a .370 ISO and .466 wOBA (granted its only 46 at-bats). Wil Myers is always dangerous and he carries a .261 ISO and .342 wOBA against lefties. Those three are the core. I’m really bummed that Christian Villanueva is on the disabled list right now because he would be part of that group as well. Luis Urias is a pretty good substitute, however, with a .571 ISO and .719 wOBA against lefties during his very limited time in the majors. A very underrated option in this spot will be Freddy Galvis, who has a .173 ISO and .335 wOBA and is dirt cheap. They check all the boxes for me today. Great upside potential, very affordable, and low ownership with the bonus of getting leverage on a field that will likely be heavy on Robbie Ray. Vegas does not agree with me on this one, though they never do when I like San Diego, but I’m going to stick to my guns here.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to enter the freeroll today! And be sure to use the LineStar avatar on DraftKings to double the prize!