Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

I have so much respect for anyone who covers baseball in any capacity. It truly is a grind. This was my first time covering a season from start to finish and I have to admit I’m tired and definitely looking forward to a couple of weeks off before NBA starts. Before we get started today, I wanted to thank all of you for reading the articles each day, sending me your comments, and hanging out in the chat. LineStar has truly built the best community of DFS players of any site out there. It’s really fun to be part of this group. I also want to thank my fellow writers/colleagues @NitroDFS, @ZeroinDenver, @jdrujon, and @FantasyRath for all their help and support throughout the season. I also need to say thank you to Erik and Peter at LineStar for giving me the opportunity to be part of this team and to Dan and Peter for helping me with the editing and getting the newsletters posted, emailed, and promoted every day. Definitely a team effort. For those of you who play NBA DFS I’ll be writing the LineStar Daily Dribble this season so looking forward to hanging with you all again soon. Okay, enough with the Grammy acceptance speech, we’ve got one more slate to cover and it looks like a good one.

Let’s get up to speed on the playoff picture. With their eighth win in a row Colorado has now clinched a playoff spot. They remain one game up on the Dodgers for the National League West title. The Dodgers also won over the Giants yesterday. As long as the Dodgers win one of their last two games they will make the playoffs. In the National League Central the Cubs defeated the Cardinals and held on to their one-game lead on the Brewers, who also won. The Cardinals have no chance of catching Milwaukee or Chicago so at this point they need the Dodgers to lose their remaining games for them to have a shot of making the postseason. In the American League, the Yankees beat Boston last night and have secured the top Wild Card spot. The AL playoff picture is completely set now. Top seeded Boston will play the winner of the Wild Card game between New York and Oakland. Second seeded Houston will take on third seeded Cleveland. 

We have a nine-game main slate on tap. Only three of the teams in action have anything left to play for. Colorado is looking to keep their division lead, Milwaukee is trying to catch the Cubs in the NL Central division race, and Atlanta is currently tied with Colorado for the second seed in the National League. Pitching on this slate is very strong. There is a trio of high-priced options tonight where we could make a case for any of them. The mid-tier and value-tier both have options that I have interest in and needed to do some extra digging to narrow down my choices. Bats are a little harder to come by as only two teams have an implied run total over five and one of those teams is the Rockies at home in Coors Field. They have a tough matchup though against Stephen Strasburg. As far as the weather goes the game between the White Sox and Twins is really standing out. It’s going to be 46 degrees tonight with the winds blowing in. Avoid the bats here and both pitchers are firmly in play. I’m leaning Gibson, as the home favorite, in a favorable environment. His numbers aren’t the greatest but he’s absolutely worth pointing out. With that, we are ready to jump into this slate. I hope you guys found these articles helpful throughout the season and got some insight into how I view a slate that will help you with your own research in the future. Good luck today!  

High Priced Pitching

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. ATL) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $10.2K)

This is obviously close between Kluber and Nola (and I’m really disappointed that Snell isn’t on the main slate) but I’m leaning Nola here. First, let's talk numbers. Kluber has been outstanding this season. He has a 3.21 SIERA with 26.4% strikeouts and 11.9% swinging strikes. He walks an amazingly low 3.9% of batters with a 0.97 WHIP. If he wins today, and Snell loses, he’ll be tied for the league lead in wins with 21. Nola, on the other hand, has a 3.39 SIERA with 26.8% strikeouts, 12.4% swinging strikes, and a 0.98 WHIP. Very similar numbers with a slight edge to Kluber. In the past month, Kluber has a 2.42 SIERA with 37% strikeouts and 17.2% swinging strikes. The WHIP is at 0.92 and the LOB% is incredibly high at 84.7%. Nola, during that same span, has a 2.78 SIERA with 33.1% strikeouts and 14.6% swinging strikes. He also has an excellent WHIP at 1.06 and an 87.6% LOB%. Again, very similar numbers but still a slight edge to Kluber. Kluber also has the better matchup today, facing a Kansas City team that has a .158 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The Braves, this season, have a .164 ISO, .316 wOBA, and 21.1% strikeout rate. Again, slight edge to Kluber but are you as surprised as I am about how close the two teams are against righties? The Braves true advantage is against left-handed pitching where they are one of the best teams in baseball and the Royals are one of the worst. Not relevant for today but helps explain why these two teams are so far apart in the win-loss column. With all these slight edges going to Kluber the real question is why am I leaning Nola? It’s simple. This game means something to Nola. It means nothing to Kluber. You could argue that Kluber wants to lead the league in wins, sure, but he won’t so it doesn’t matter. Snell won’t lose today and even if he did Kluber could only tie. He doesn’t care about that. His focus for today is using this as a final tune-up before he’s handed the ball in game one of the ALDS next week. For Nola, this is it. One final game to cap off arguably the greatest season by a Philadelphia pitcher in their franchise. One more chance to make his case for the Cy Young Award even if he’s a long shot behind deGrom to get it. Plus, Nola has been as dominant as they come at home with a 9-2 record, 2.70 ERA and 2.92 xFIP. You can bet your life that if Nola is pitching well they will let him go deep into this game as he will get plenty of rest once it’s over and the fans will be there to see him. If you went Kluber here I wouldn’t blame you but I like Nola to throw a gem tonight and end the season in style.

James Paxton, SEA (vs. TEX) (DK: $10K, FD: $8.9K)

The easy way out here would be to just recommend Kluber as my second high-priced option today but what’s the fun in that? I really like Paxton for tournaments today as we know the ceiling with him is flat out ridiculous even if his floor is unusually low right now. It needs to pointed out he is expected to be limited to about 85 pitchers today but with his upside that should still be enough for him to return value, especially on FanDuel where he's really cheap today. In a second half that’s been plagued by injuries Paxton has only been able to make six starts since the beginning of August and he hasn’t fared particularly well with a 2-2 record and a 5.46 ERA. But, there is a TON of reason for optimism which is why I love him tonight and I hope everyone else ignores him with Nola and Kluber priced close together. In his last six starts, Paxton has faced Toronto, Houston, the Yankees, and Oakland three times. That’s five of six starts against playoff teams with monster offenses. That’s five of six starts against playoff teams with monster offenses who SMASH left-handed pitching. So, while the ERA looks pretty awful the advanced metrics are telling us a different story. During this same span, Paxton has a much more comfortable 3.21 xFIP. He’s also collected 36 strikeouts in just 28 innings pitched and walked only nine batters. That’s an 11.57 K/9 and a 2.89 BB/9.  It’s also a good matchup against a Rangers team who loves to strikeout and is significantly worse against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. Seattle is a massive -225 favorite and the Rangers have an implied total that opened at 3.3 runs and dropped to 3.2 runs. Paxton is an elite, though risky, tournament option today.  

Value Pitching

Anibal Sanchez, ATL (@PHI) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.2K)

One of the biggest surprises of this season has to be the success of Anibal Sanchez.  Once a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher on the 2013 Detroit team that made a deep playoff run, Sanchez only posted an ERA below 5.00 once between 2015 and 2017. Now, making his final start of the 2018 regular season, he looks locked into the third spot in the playoff rotation for the National League East champions. In 130.2 innings pitched this season, he has a 3.86 SIERA with 24.2% strikeouts and 10.2% swinging strikes. He has a 1.09 WHIP and is allowing only 27.9% hard contact. In the past 30 days, he has a 3.64 SIERA with 25.5% strikeouts and 13.4% swinging strikes. He’s maintaining his low WHIP at 1.10 and still allowing below average hard contact at 27%. Left-handed hitters have a very low .121 xISO and .273 xwOBA against him while right-handed hitters have some power with a .182 xISO but a well below average .299 xwOBA. While having Nola as the opposing pitcher isn’t ideal as it means he’ll have a more difficult time picking up the win the most likely outcome here is a pitcher’s duel as Philadelphia represents a solid matchup for Sanchez. They have a .177 ISO and .319 wOBA but also a very high 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.  Since he's an underdog and, to be honest, I'm a bit surprised with how high the Philadelphia implied total is today I can't recommend him as anything more than a tournament option. But, he profiles well for this spot and the Braves would love to grab a win today and try to lock in that two seed in the National League if they can.    

Steven Matz, NYM (vs. MIA) (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.7K)

We finally got a full season of Steven Matz. While his stats definitely don’t jump off the page and his record is rather ugly at 5-11 he’s going to set career highs in starts (today will be number 30), innings pitched, and strikeouts. He’s too cheap for a matchup with the Marlins today. Miami has a .127 ISO, .288 wOBA, and 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They also strikeout 22.4% of the time. Over the last month, they have a .117 ISO, a .279 wOBA, and a higher 25.3% strikeout rate. Matz, meanwhile, has been on fire and going in the completely opposite direction of the Marlins lineup during that same span. Over the last 30 days, he has a 3.99 SIERA with a massive 29% strikeout rate and a 1.10 WHIP. He does have a high 12.2% walk rate but has still managed an outstanding LOB% of 91.3%. We’ve talked a lot about splits between left-handed and right-handed batters when it comes to Matz this season so it’s worth bringing it up again here. He’s awesome against lefties. He has a respectable 4.04 xFIP and a low 18.8% strikeout rate but an incredible 71.8% groundball rate while only allowing 13.8% hard contact. Against righties it’s a mixed bag. The xFIP is similar at 4.29 and the strikeout rate increases to 23.8%. The groundball rate drops all the way down to 41.8% and the hard contact rises to 37.6%. Someone like Realmuto could have a good game here but with such a weak lineup around him I’m definitely not concerned. I’m also burying the lead here but the real story is today being the farewell game for David Wright. There will be a monster, sell-out crowd at Citi Field. Matz will have some extra motivation to pitch well in this spot and send his teammate out with a win.   Vegas seems to agree as the Mets are -172 favorites and the Marlins have an implied total of only 3.3 runs.        

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Jesus Aguilar, MIL: 1B (DK: $5.3K, FD: $3.9K)

Big game once again for Milwaukee which we’ll touch on in the stack section. This sets up as an outstanding spot for Aguilar who has a .278 ISO and .681 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games against left-handed pitching. Norris has lost five of his seven starts this season and is allowing a .267 xISO and .390 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.  

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 2B/3B (DK: $5.2K, FD: $4.6K)

Junis has definitely pitched better down the stretch after being a joke in the DFS community in the first half of the season. But, it didn’t take much for him to really be better than he was before and home runs are still a huge issue. He’s allowed five home runs in four September starts and is currently tied for third in the league with 32 allowed this season. He’ll take on a powerful Indians lineup including Ramirez who has a .313 ISO and .735 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games.  

Ryan Braun, MIL: OF (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3K)

Sorry to recommend two players from the same team in the home run section but these right-handed Milwaukee bats are standing out. I had actually been off of Milwaukee against left-handed pitching for a while because Braun, who typically bats in the middle of the order in these cases, had been hitting so poorly. Prior to this week, in the month of September, he was just 9 for 52 with a .119 ISO and .299 wOBA. I don’t know if he was hurt or just conserving energy for the playoff run but out of nowhere a switch has been flipped. This week, Braun is 6 for 16 with a .755 wOBA and a 1.067 ISO. Five of his six hits are home runs! Jump on this train while it’s still relatively affordable.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

David Wright, NYM: 3B (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2K)

The narrative here is obvious as this will be the final game of David Wright’s career. The number of things we could talk about that are motivating him would go on forever. His daughter will throw out the first pitch tonight to his dad. The Yankees, in a super classy move, took out a full page article honoring him today. Wright told reporters he thought he might throw up when he was in the on-deck circle the other night for a pitch-hit appearance. The crowd will be nuts here and the adrenaline will be off the charts. There’s no analysis needed this is all about a great baseball player who has had an amazing career and will want to go out on top. Fire him up.

Jose Reyes, NYM: 3B/SS (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.1K)

It will be overshadowed by Wright’s last game but this will likely be the last game for Reyes as well. I did some reading last night about the history of these two. Here is a great article that’s worth sharing. They’ve always wanted a chance to play together again and today they’ll get to do that. Reyes is expected to bat lead-off. Again, no analysis needed. This is bigger than numbers. The adrenaline alone will send these guys back to 2006. 

Lewis Brinson, MIA: OF (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.2K)

As much as I like Matz today we did talk about how much he struggles with right-handed batters. This creates incredible value with someone like Brinson who is basically free on both sites. He’ll bat in the middle part of the order and his has a solid .191 ISO and .491 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching. Matz is allowing a .190 ISO and .512 wOBA+ISO to right-handed hitters over his last 20 starts. If you need a punt option in the outfield Brinson should be able to return value today.  

Stacks on Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Daniel Norris)

The Brewers refuse to go down without a fight and with both teams taking care of business last night they are running out of time for a shot at winning the division. The Cubs play a day game today so the pressure could be on even more (one way or the other) before first pitch even happens tonight. The Cubs have a difficult matchup against Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals while the Brewers have a favorable matchup against Daniel Norris and the Tigers. Norris is 0-5 in seven starts with a 5.22 ERA and 4.39 xFIP. He does have some strikeout appeal with 43 in 39.2 innings but he walks a lot of batters with 17 during that same span. He has done a pretty good job minimizing power against lefties with a .143 xISO but allows a .327 xwOBA. He’s been getting crushed by righties allowing a .267 xISO and .390 xwOBA. While I prefer the Brewers against right-handed pitching they are a deep enough team that it’s hard to ignore them regardless of the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. Last time they faced a lefty they rolled out a lineup with Cain, Yelich, Aguilar, Braun, Perez, Moustakas, Schoop, and Pina. We should expect something similar to that today. Aguilar clearly stands out here with a .278 ISO and .394 wOBA. Braun is swinging a hot bat right now and he should be in the heart of the order. He has a .282 ISO and .366 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Is there anything Yelich can’t hit? At this point the answer is no. The lefty against lefty matchup doesn’t phase him as he has a .224 ISO and .393 wOBA. Perez quietly gets the job done here as well with a strong .207 ISO and .330 wOBA. Cain is obviously in play as he should lead off and has a .435 wOBA despite having a lot less power than the rest of these guys. After that things get less appealing but you could always take a shot on guys like Schoop or Pina I just wouldn’t prioritize them. 

Oakland Athletics (vs. Tyler Skaggs)

The Athletics are now locked into their playoff spot so it’s possible some of their regulars sit tonight as they prepare for the Wild Card game. Depending on who cracks the lineup tonight we may decide to back off of this recommendation but we’ll need to see a posted lineup before we can make any decisions. Skaggs was so good at the beginning of the season but it’s been all downhill since then. Injuries have ruined a once promising season and at the moment he’s someone you absolutely should be betting against. Since the All-Star break he’s only made five starts and gone 1-3. He has an ERA of 11.00 (you read that right) and an xFIP of 4.83. He’s pitched three innings or less in four of those five starts. He’s also faced Oakland in two of those starts. He get shelled the first time allowing 10 hits and seven earned runs in only 3.1 innings of work. He bounced back the next time allowing zero hits or earned runs but again in only three innings of work. This should be another “opener” situation where Skaggs will go a few innings before handing it off to the bullpen. The Angels have no reason to push him in a meaningless game (I’m actually a bit surprised they are putting him out there at all). This is all good news for us as the Angels bullpen has been awful over the past 30 days with a 4.43 xFIP and a super low 19.8% strikeout rate. Since Skaggs is left-handed we’ll use the Oakland lineup against lefties as our reference point. Canha has a .322 ISO, .384 wOBA and Pinder has a .179 ISO, .357 wOBA. Both of those guys jump near the top of my list as they are underpriced for this matchup. With them is Davis (.250 ISO, .334 wOBA), Piscotty (.206 ISO, .335 wOBA), and Semien (.185 ISO, .328 wOBA). Chapman (.349 wOBA) and Laureano (.341 wOBA) are both on the radar as well though they have significantly less power against left-handed pitching. But, they’ll likely get an at-bat or two against a right-handed bat as well considering they’ll be seeing the Angels bullpen for an extended amount of time. 

Colorado Rockies (vs. Stephen Strasburg)

I don’t think Colorado despite being home at Coors today will be chalk when they are facing Stephen Strasburg. In fact, with how well Strasburg has pitched recently I think they could be on the lower side of ownership. They are as hot as it gets right now on an eight game winning streak and the anticipation for this game will be huge. The Dodgers play earlier in the afternoon and should be done with their game before this one starts. The Dodgers have Kershaw on the hill today against the Giants, which is laughable, and they are -256 favorites. I fully expect them to win and put the pressure on Colorado to maintain their lead in the National League West. This game, despite playing against a team that has nothing to play for, will have a playoff atmosphere to it. I like the Rockies to respond to that. David Dahl. Wow. He has a home run in five straight games. He’s hammering the baseball right now and he stands out once again with his .297 ISO and .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Charlie Blackmon (.225 ISO, .370 wOBA) and Carlos Gonzalez (.198 ISO, .352 wOBA) are also standing out as the big power left-handed bats in this spot. Obviously I prefer both Story (.236 ISO, .355 wOBA) and Arenado (.193 ISO, .338 wOBA) against left-handed pitching but they are very much still options here today.  After that group we have some less exciting pieces that are worth mentioning. Matt Holiday has been productive in his limited plate appearances. He has a .250 ISO and .363 wOBA against right-handed pitching so far. Gerado Parra has a .340 wOBA but the power is way down. You could consider both of those guys if you were rolling out multiple stacks of this team. The Rockies implied total currently sits at five runs which is low for Coors Field but high for a matchup with Strasburg. This will be a big game.   

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: Rushia: 159.85

• 2nd Place: dxpileup: 151.05

• 3rd Place: bradeyfeil: 150.20

Be sure to send a DM to @LineStarApp to claim your prize!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).