Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Friday everyone! The stage is set for a dramatic weekend finish to the MLB regular season. Several teams came through in the clutch last night to keep their hopes alive, which means we have a lot left to play for with just three days remaining. In the American League, as we know, Boston, Houston, and Cleveland have all locked in their spots. The Yankees made a statement yesterday, crushing the Rays 12-1. With Oakland having an off day, New York extended its lead over Oakland for the top Wild Card spot to two games. Their magic number is now one. A win today would seal it. But the Yankees have a tough game on the road in Boston, who would love nothing more than to spoil New York’s chances at home field advantage for the Wild Card game (remember, the winner of the Wild Card game will play Boston in the first round). Oakland has a huge game against the Angels tonight to keep their hopes of passing New York alive.

You think there’s drama in the American League? Let’s talk about the National League. Colorado finished off a four-game sweep of Philadelphia and won their seventh game in a row. They now have a one game lead over the Dodgers in the National League West. The Dodgers had the night off. In the National League Central, the Cubs beat the Pirates while Milwaukee was off, so the Cubs are now up one game for the division title. The Brewers and Cubs are both locked into a playoff spot no matter what, so this battle is for who wins the division and who is the first Wild Card team. The Dodgers and Cardinals were both off, so nothing changed as far as the second Wild Card spot. The Dodgers still hold a one game lead over St. Louis there. The Braves, meanwhile, lost yesterday so they remain tied with Colorado for the second seed in the National League. There are a whole bunch of tie breaker scenarios here too, which we won’t get into. But in most cases, the winner of the season series will break the tie.

Just wanted to point something out before we get into today. If the Tampa Bay Rays played in the National League East instead of the American League East, they would currently be one game back of the Braves for the division title and TIED with the Dodgers for the second Wild Card spot. Instead, they are 19 games back in the American League East. 19. They are also eight games out of the Wild Card. This is nothing new. There are teams that get snubbed every year in every sport, but the difference in competition between the two leagues is crazy. I don’t see any scenario where a National League team beats one of the American League teams (no matter who it is) in the World Series this year.

Today is also the last Daily Ledger Freeroll of the season, so make sure to get in on that (link at the bottom of the article). I'm impressed that this is the first week where they stopped filling up completely. I figured the traffic would have slowed down more than that once NFL started. Let's fill up this one today! Alright, enough small talk. We have a 13-game slate to talk about today. Let’s get into it!

High Priced Pitching

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@BAL) (DK: $12.8K, FD: $11.4K)

Hopefully this doesn't seem lazy, but with the Houston/Baltimore game getting postponed yesterday, we have Gerrit Cole on the mound once again today. Although, the big difference between yesterday and today, as this is a much larger slate and now there are other options to consider, Cole still makes the cut for me today (although I'm ranking him second behind another pitcher we will also talk about). Since we have the same matchup and the same price, I'm just going to share what I wrote in yesterday's newsletter as it's still relevant for today: This, unfortunately, is the only pitcher today that I’m really comfortable with. There are other options that I think we can use, which we’ll get to in a minute, but they all have obvious red flags that come with them. Cole isn’t perfect, but from a floor/ceiling combination today, this is far and away your best option on the board. Since August 1st, Cole is 5-2 in nine starts with a 3.91 ERA and a 2.71 xFIP. His opponents have a .350 BABIP against him during that span. Think about that one for a second. His already solid 3.91 ERA is over a run higher than his xFIP AND the BABIP is well above average, telling us he’s been very unlucky on balls in play yet he’s still producing these results. He has a ridiculous 78 strikeouts in only 53 innings pitched with 15 walks and 23 earned runs allowed. He’s gone at least five innings in every start during this period. In fact, he’s never gone less than five innings in any of the starts (31) he’s made all season. He’s dominant to both sides of the plate with a 2.46 xFIP and 42.3% strikeout rate against lefties and a 3.48 xFIP with 28.4% strikeouts against righties. On top of all this information, he gets a plus matchup today with the Baltimore Orioles. They have a .146 ISO and .299 wOBA with a 24.7% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching. Unsurprisingly, Vegas loves Cole today with the Astros currently -230 favorites and the Orioles with a low 3.3 implied run total. Fire him up in cash and tournaments.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (@SFG) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $10K)

It’s going to be really hard for me to pass up on an opportunity to roster a hard-throwing lefty like Ryu against the Giants. He has a 3.06 SIERA with 28.5% strikeouts and 11.6% swinging strikes. He’s only walking 4.6% of batters with an outstanding 1.01 WHIP. When batters actually do make contact, it’s going on the ground 44.7% of the time. Since returning from the disabled list in mid-August, he’s 3-3 in eight starts with a 1.93 ERA (2.95 xFIP) and 50 strikeouts to only three walks in 46.2 innings pitched. That’s an incredibly impressive 9.64 K/9 and a 0.58 BB/9. He’s allowed 15 runs but only 10 of them earned and he’s gone six innings or more in five of the eight starts. In addition to all this good news, Ryu has already faced the Giants twice this season and had a ton of success. The first meeting was way back in April, so we’ll put less weight on that. But more recently, on August 15th, he went six innings, allowing three hits, zero earned runs, and six strikeouts. Let’s not bury the lead here. This is a game against the Giants. I haven’t had a chance to remind you about just how bad they are in a few days, so here we go. The current active Giants roster against left-handed pitching this season has a .129 ISO and .276 wOBA with a 22.8% strikeout rate. In the last month, that strikeout rate is up to 28.9%. The Dodgers need a win here to keep their playoff spot and stay in contention for the National League West title. They are heavy -182 favorites and the Giants have the lowest implied total on the board at just three runs. As much as I like Cole today, I’ll be taking the savings here and playing Ryu in cash and tournaments tonight.

Value Pitching

Mike Fiers, OAK (@LAA) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.5K)

I’m all over Oakland today as you’ll be able to see as you read through today’s newsletter. The difference between Fiers on the Tigers and Fiers on the Athletics is literally night and day. Prior to the change, he was 7-6 in 21 starts with a 4.83 xFIP and 87 strikeouts in 119 innings. Since the switch, he’s 5-1 in nine starts with a 3.67 xFIP and 49 strikeouts in 49.2 innings pitched. He should be 6-1 as his last outing he pitched very well against the Twins going six innings and allowing four hits and just one earned run with five strikeouts, but he got zero run support and ultimately ended up with a no decision. He’s allowed more than three earned runs just once in his nine starts with this team and he’s flashed upside on multiple occasions, with four games of seven strikeouts or more. He gets an excellent matchup today against the Angels, who have not had anything to play for in quite some time. Over the past 30 days, they have an average .169 ISO and a well-below average .296 wOBA. What once was a team that barely ever struck out is now striking out 24.1% of the time. There’s still a bit of power here but the Angels have quickly turned into a more “boom or bust” team. If Fiers can avoid giving up the long ball, which is a problem for him with his very high 19.6% HR/FB rate since joining the Athletics, he should be able to eat some innings and get some extra strikeouts against this team tonight. I will caution you, with this being a huge game, if Fiers were to get into any kind of trouble, we should expect a quick hook. Oakland has two nights off between the end of the regular season and the Wild Card game, set for 10/3, so they will be able to rest their bullpen if they need to use it today. Because of this, I’m putting Fiers in the tournament-only category. With that said, however, Oakland is a comfortable -136 favorite and the Angels have a low implied total of 4.2 runs. Fiers should be able to get the job done tonight.

Wade LeBlanc, SEA (vs. TEX) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $6.8K)

LeBlanc’s overall numbers aren’t super exciting. I like his 3.55 ERA but it’s less appealing with a 4.33 SIERA behind it. He has slightly below average strikeouts at 19.4% and only 9.4% swinging strikes. There are a few reasons to be optimistic about him today and they mainly have to do with the matchup. First, this is a big park downgrade for the Rangers. Globe Life Park is currently first in the majors in runs scored and fourth in home runs allowed, whereas Safeco is 27th in runs scored and 14th in home runs allowed. This should instantly downplay some of the threat this Texas lineup brings to the plate. Second, the Rangers are worse against left-handed pitching. They have a below average .158 ISO, .310 wOBA, and 87 wRC+. They also strikeout 22.9% of the time. Third, LeBlanc has had success in this spot already this year. He’s 1-1 in three starts and has allowed one, one, and three earned runs in those outings. He has a 2.87 ERA and a higher, but still respectable, 4.12 xFIP. I don’t love the ceiling, he lacks the strikeout upside I’d be looking for, but the floor here is pretty solid. He’ll eat up some innings, limit the runs, and pickup hopefully at least five strikeouts, possibly more. He should also be able to get the win tonight. With Martin Perez on the other side of this game, Seattle is a heavy -175 favorite and the Rangers have a low implied total of only 3.7 runs.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.3K)

It wouldn't be a proper end to the season without one last recommendation to play Nelson Cruz against a lefty. As usual, this is a fantastic spot. Cruz has a .308 ISO and .708 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. Perez, meanwhile, is allowing a .191 ISO and .600 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 starts against right-handed batters.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B/3B (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.1K)

In a huge game for Milwaukee who looks to close the gap on the Cubs for the National League Central title, I expect big things from Shaw today who has crushed right-handed pitching all season. He has a .285 ISO and .669 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. He also has a 90.2 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks. Zimmermann is allowing a .216 ISO and .545 wOBA+ISO to lefties over his last 20 starts.

Steve Pearce, BOS: 1B/OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.3K)

After a white hot start to his Red Sox career, Pearce has been very, very quiet recently. This is a great spot for him to explode against the left-handed J.A. Happ. Pearce has a .267 ISO over this last 150 games and a 90.5 mph average exit velocity over the past two weeks against left-handed pitching. Pearce is also a ridiculous 10 for 29 with five home runs in his career against Happ. He's way too cheap for this matchup today. Assuming he's in the lineup and has a reasonable spot in the order, I'll be all over him in cash.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Franmil Reyes, SD: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.7K)

Shocking, I like Reyes as a value bat against a lefty. I never talk about this in the newsletters. Sarcasm aside, he just continues to be undervalued in these matchups. He'll likely bat third or fourth in the order and has a massive .686 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching. Don't get me wrong, Corbin is a good pitcher and he's been tough on right-handed batters all season, but the savings on Reyes today are hard to ignore.

Rowdy Tellez, TOR: 1B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.5K)

Tellez is somehow still only $2.5K on FanDuel despite a .415 ISO, .516 wOBA and 4.05 FP/PA against right-handed pitching. He's even still a little too cheap on DraftKings. Glasnow has been good since joining the Rays but certainly not somebody we need to stay away from entirely. This will be the third time this month and fourth time in the last two months that Glasnow has faced the Blue Jays and he got rocked in one of them. Obviously a super small sample size, but Tellez has hit Glasnow really well over the past month, including a home run.

Kike Hernandez, LAD: 2B/OF (DK: $4K, FD: $2.5K)

FanDuel continues to undervalue Hernandez in general but especially against left-handed pitching. At least for now, Bumgarner's name carries very little weight. He's allowing a .228 xISO and .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Not only should we not avoid him, we should really look at him as someone to attack with right-handed bats. Hernandez has a solid .522 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 at-bats.

Stacks on Stacks

Houston Astros (vs. David Hess)

Same as with Cole, we have David Hess, who was originally scheduled to pitch yesterday, pitching in this same spot today. Houston still stands out to me and everything I mentioned still applies, so here's my write-up in case you missed it: Hess is just 1-5 in his last nine starts since rejoining the rotation in early August. He’s gone over five innings pitched only three times during that span. He has 40 strikeouts and 15 walks in only 46.1 innings. That’s a low 7.77 K/9 and a high 2.91 BB/9. The BABIP against him is below average at .279 and his xFIP (4.92) is higher than his ERA (4.27), suggesting regression. This obviously sets up well for the Astros. What we don’t know, however, is who will play for Houston today. I would fully expect them to rest players as they have now clinched the American League West and are locked into the two seed regardless of the final few games of the season. They have no reason to want to win this game. This could be a good thing for us, however, as it likely means we’ll get value out of this lineup in a good matchup against Hess. Players like Kemp (.338 wOBA), Gonzalez (.322 wOBA), and Marisnick (.181 ISO) could find themselves in the heart of the order. I’m just speculating here, which is part of the game with any late season DFS, so we’ll need to see a posted lineup to be sure. Obviously, if the regulars play, then Bregman (.247 ISO, .393 wOBA), White (.264 ISO, .382 wOBA), Altuve (.373 wOBA), and Springer (.330 wOBA) are all in play. I’m guessing Maldonado or McCann will get the start at catcher and you can consider either of them as punt options. The Astros are big favorites and have an implied total of 5.3 runs (it's actually 5.4 runs today!)

Oakland Athletics (vs. Jaime Barria)

This is a huge game for Oakland, as they have to win and hope for some help from Boston to keep their hopes of a home Wild Card game alive. It’s not life or death, as they are still going to the playoffs no matter what, but they would obviously rather not have to travel to Yankee Stadium for a one game playoff if they can avoid it. They get a plus matchup today against a struggling Jaime Barria who has a 4.75 SIERA and only 18.2% strikeouts while allowing 37.2% hard contact. The important thing to be aware of with Barria is he has reverse-splits, so he’s actually better against left-handed hitters than he is against right-handed hitters. Lefties have a .166 xISO and .311 xwOBA while righties have a massive .246 xISO and .376 xwOBA. Who do we know on Oakland that smashes right-handed pitching that we might want to use today? How about Khris Davis and his league leading 47 home runs? Not only is Davis my favorite bat from this team, he’s one of my favorite bats on this slate today. Chapman (.263 ISO, .382 wOBA), Laureano (.223 ISO, .375 wOBA) and Piscotty (.226 ISO, .355 wOBA) round out my favorite options from this team today. While I prefer the righties, you can certainly still use lefties as Barria is far from a sure thing on that side of the plate. Martini (.367 wOBA), Lowrie (.202 ISO, .362 wOBA), and Olson (.254 ISO, .355 wOBA) are all on the radar as well. Oakland has a healthy 4.9 implied run total.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Jerad Eickhoff)

After a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies, a once promising season for Philadelphia is ending in disaster. They will put Jerad Eickhoff on the mound today who has made just two appearances in the Majors this season, pitching just one inning each time and allowing a run each time. Not good. He started four games in Triple-A and had a ridiculously bad 5.04 xFIP with just 12.4% strikeouts and 9.9% walks. He also started one game in Double-A and had a 4.10 xFIP with only 18.8% strikeouts. Anytime a pitcher gets the start in the Majors with an xFIP over 4.00, that’s an instant red flag. An xFIP over 5.00 is just awful. Obviously, this is a meaningless game for the Phillies, so this is just about Eickhoff’s rehab more than anything else. But Atlanta should be licking their chops to get some swings against this guy today, especially considering they are still battling for seeding and home field advantage in the playoffs. Acuna leads things off on my priority list with his .254 ISO and .380 wOBA. Freeman (.180 ISO, .368 wOBA) and Culberson (.215 ISO, .354 wOBA) both standout as well from a floor/ceiling perspective. I also have interest in Markakis (.352 wOBA), Camargo (.341 wOBA), Suzuiki (.333 wOBA), and Albies (.184 ISO). If Lucas Duda plays today, I would definitely have interest in him as well, but he’s currently day-to-day with a sore back. He’s mainly been playing in pinch hitter situations anyway, so the chances of him starting aren’t great to begin with. Atlanta’s implied total currently sits at 4.5, which feels a bit conservative to me. If it starts to climb, I will be heavy on them today.

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: TeamPV: 145.40

• 2nd Place: swattzilla: 143.40

• 3rd Place: salukifan_fritz: 135.25

Be sure to send a DM to @LineStarApp to claim your prize!

Don’t forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

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• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Here’s the link for today’s contest!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).