Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

His name is German Marquez. Unlike the rest of the pitchers in this league, pitching at Coors Field means nothing to him. It’s just another ballpark. Marquez was masterful again last night, going seven innings, allowing three hits, zero earned runs and striking out eleven. The eleven strikeouts is actually disappointing considering he struck out the first eight batters he faced in a row, an MLB record. A win is a win, however, and the Rockies now lead the National League West by a half game with four to play. The Dodgers currently lead the Cardinals by one game for the second Wild Card spot. St. Louis lost to the Brewers again last night, who clinched a postseason berth. The Chicago Cubs also clinched a postseason berth with their extra inning win over the Pirates. The Cubs still lead the National League Central by a half game over the Brewers and the Brewers hold a commanding lead on the top Wild Card spot. 

In the American League the first, second, and third seeds are locked in place. The only remaining question mark is the fourth and fifth seeds. Oakland did its job last night, taking care of business against the Mariners behind Matt Olson’s first career grand slam. The Yankees lost to Tampa Bay. Just 1.5 games separate these two teams now. The Yankees have an afternoon game today while Oakland is off. 

Today brings us a six-game slate that I’m not overly thrilled with. This shapes up as a tournament-only slate, as outside of Gerrit Cole, there are a lot of questions marks with pitching. Several players have reasonable ceilings with good matchups today but they are far from safe. The one potentially good thing about it being so late in the year is that we never know what kind of lineup we will get from some of these teams. If we get some teams resting regular players, that could change our view on some of these pitchers, so just keep that in mind.  

High Priced Pitching

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@BAL) (DK: $12.8K, FD: $11.4K)

This, unfortunately, is the only pitcher today that I’m really comfortable with. There are other options that I think we can use, which we’ll get to in a minute, but they all have obvious red flags that come with them. Cole isn’t perfect, but from a floor/ceiling combination today, this is far and away your best option on the board. Since August 1st, Cole is 5-2 in nine starts with a 3.91 ERA and a 2.71 xFIP. His opponents have a .350 BABIP against him during that span. Think about that one for a second. His already solid 3.91 ERA is over a run higher than his xFIP AND the BABIP is well above average, telling us he’s been very unlucky on balls in play yet he’s still producing these results. He has a ridiculous 78 strikeouts in only 53 innings pitched with 15 walks and 23 earned runs allowed. He’s gone at least five innings in every start during this period. In fact, he’s never gone less than five innings in any of the starts (31) he’s made all season. He’s dominant to both sides of the plate with a 2.46 xFIP and 42.3% strikeout rate against lefties and a 3.48 xFIP with 28.4% strikeouts against righties. On top of all this information, he gets a plus matchup today with the Baltimore Orioles. They have a .146 ISO and .299 wOBA with a 24.7% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching. Unsurprisingly, Vegas loves Cole today with the Astros currently -230 favorites and the Orioles with a low 3.3 implied run total. Fire him up in cash and tournaments.

Marco Gonzales, SEA (vs. TEX) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $6.3K)

Marco Gonzales, prior to the All-Star break, was one of the better pitchers in baseball. He was 10-5 in 19 starts with a 3.41 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, and 98 strikeouts in 113.1 innings pitched. He doesn’t have the crazy upside we’d like, with a just above average 20.8% strikeout rate and only 9.2% swinging strikes, but his run prevention was solid and he was able to eat up innings. Since the break, he’s been quite a bit worse on the surface but it doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s 3-4 in nine starts with a 5.77 ERA, which obviously isn’t good. But his 3.79 xFIP is encouraging and the BABIP is at a whopping .349, which appears to be some incredibly bad luck. He has 41 strikeouts to just nine walks in 48.1 innings. Again, not the strikeout upside we want at just 7.63 K/9, but most of his numbers suggest he’s pitched better than what the win-loss record and ERA are telling us. He’s had mixed results against the Rangers this season. In his last start, he went six strong innings allowing just one hit, zero earned runs, with three strikeouts. But the start before that against the Rangers, he went five innings allowing 12 hits, seven earned runs, and again just three strikeouts. Obviously, when we look at the prices, he stands out quite a bit on FanDuel with such a huge discrepancy. He has a higher (though not as high as I’d like) floor, which makes him a fringe (at best) cash game option today. The ceiling is really limited by his lack of strikeout upside but you could certainly roll the dice in tournaments if you wanted to. The good news is Vegas is on his side as the Mariners are -170 favorites and Texas has an implied total of 3.9 runs. I don't love him, but you need to plant your flag somewhere on this less than ideal slate. 

Value Pitching

Julio Teheran, ATL (@NYM) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8K)

He’s always been volatile and it’s difficult to know exactly what you’ll get when rostering him. But if you catch him on the right night, he can surprise you. He’s got a solid ceiling with 23.1% strikeouts and 13.1% swinging strikes but virtually no floor with a 4.80 SIERA and a 13.1% walk rate over the past month. He struggles a lot with left-handed hitters including a 5.93 xFIP, 17.9% strikeouts and 17.6% walks with a 1.55 WHIP. That’s scary considering some of the strong left-handed hitters in this lineup including Nimmo, Conforto, and McNeil. He’s great against right-handed hitters with a 3.62 xFIP and 26.9% strikeouts while only walking 5.7%. He has a 0.87 WHIP against righties. Those are massive differences in his splits, particularly when you look at the walk rates. What’s giving me some extra confidence about this recommendation today is his history against the Mets this season. This will be his fifth start against this team. In his previous four, he’s 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA (though a 4.40 xFIP and just a .218 BABIP). He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs, including two outings with zero earned runs allowed. He went seven innings in three of the four starts and had six strikeouts in three of the four starts. I definitely wouldn’t go here in cash, in fact, never go Teheran in cash but I do like him as a SP2 in tournaments tonight.  

Jason Vargas, NYM (vs. ATL) (DK: $5.4K, FD: $7.4K)

I’m obviously hesitant to recommend Jason Vargas but I’m also having a hard time ignoring the data. Are they putting something in the water in Citi Field? Or maybe deGrom’s magic just rubs off on his teammates? First, Zack Wheeler goes from middle of the road pitcher to complete stud overnight and now Jason Vargas seems to have joined the party. Since August 1st, Vargas is 4-3 in nine starts with a 3.86 xFIP and 43 strikeouts in 43 innings. He has at least six strikeouts in five of his last nine starts and he’s gone five innings or more in all but two of them. What’s interesting, and what makes me think he’s worth consideration today, is that the 3.86 xFIP we talked about is lower than his ERA and the BABIP is pretty close to league average, telling us these numbers are actually sustainable.  Normally, in situations like this, it’s the opposite where it’s very clear the pitcher has been more lucky than good and perhaps they just had a stretch of easy opponents. The other reason I was hesitant about Vargas today, you know, other than the fact that he’s Jason Vargas, is his opponent.  Atlanta has hit left-handed pitching really well all season. Yet, the Braves opened with a modest 4.3 implied run total that has actually fallen to 4.1 runs already today. They opened as a -125 favorite and that has dropped to -114. Perhaps Vegas has some insight about starters being rested today? I would be surprised, considering the Braves are still fighting for seeding, but it’s certainly possible. There’s still plenty of risk here (Acuna comes to mind) but it’s hard to ignore his results in the second half of the season and the activity in Vegas is certainly encouraging. If you’re looking to spend down on this slate, Vargas is on the radar for tournaments, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Tyler Austin, MIN: 1B (DK: $4K, FD: $3.4K)

Austin gets a pristine matchup against Francisco Liriano who has low strikeouts and high walks against right-handed hitters to go along with a .211 xISO and .381 xwOBA allowed. Austin, as he showed last night, is crushing lefties with a .310 ISO, .359 wOBA, and 35.1% hard-hit rate. Liriano’s two most thrown pitches are a two-seam fastball and a slider. Austin has a .608 xISO against the two-seam fastball and a .514 xISO against the slider.  

Ronald Acuna, ATL: OF (DK: $5.2K, FD: $3.9K)

If I didn’t make it clear in my write-up about Jason Vargas, I’ll reiterate it here. I don’t feel great about him. On an ugly slate, if forced to pay down, that’s where I would go, but I do not want to (or plan to) go there myself tonight. Acuna, among others, is very dangerous in this lineup against left-handed pitching. Recent success or not, Vargas has allowed a .220 xISO and .336 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The soon to be National League Rookie of the Year has a .300 ISO and 41.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. 

Robinson Cano, SEA: 2B (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.1K)

Jurado is allowing a .216 xISO and .422 xwOBA to left-handed hitters so far this season. Cano has a solid .185 ISO, .358 wOBA, and a massive 46.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Jurado throws a two-seam fastball 55% of the time to lefties and 70% of the time to righties, despite allowing a .318 xISO and .528 xwOBA off that pitch. Cano has a .190 xISO and .366 xwOBA against that pitch type.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Willians Astudillo, MIN: C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K)

I’m viewing the Twins as a nice source of value today, if needed, in a good matchup against Liriano. As I highlighted already, he’s allowing a .211 xISO and .381 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Astudillo doesn’t have as much power (.130 ISO) but an excellent .356 wOBA and 33.3% hard-hit rate. Plus, don’t forget that blazing speed…..

Tyler Flowers, ATL: C (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.1K)

I'm sorry to recommend multiple catchers back to back like this but this is really more about FanDuel where somehow Flowers is only $2.1K today. He should be in the lineup, batting near the middle of the order, and facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .262 ISO and .490 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He's not a bad value on DraftKings either but he just really stood out on FanDuel.  

Jose Osuna, PIT: 1B/3B/OF (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.4K)

Osuna smashed his value last night, going two for three with a home run, yet his price didn’t move on either site. As we talked about in the newsletter yesterday, he has massive power against left-handed pitching with a .294 ISO, .348 wOBA, and 39% hard-hits. Lester is certainly a better pitcher than Quintana but definitely not someone we need to shy away from.   

Stacks on Stacks

Houston Astros (vs. David Hess)

Hess is just 1-5 in his last nine starts since rejoining the rotation in early August. He’s gone over five innings pitched only three times during that span. He has 40 strikeouts and 15 walks in only 46.1 innings. That’s a low 7.77 K/9 and a high 2.91 BB/9. The BABIP against him is below average at .279 and his xFIP (4.92) is higher than his ERA (4.27), suggesting regression. This obviously sets up well for the Astros. What we don’t know, however, is who will play for Houston today. I would fully expect them to rest players as they have now clinched the American League West and are locked into the two seed regardless of the final few games of the season. They have no reason to want to win this game. This could be a good thing for us, however, as it likely means we’ll get value out of this lineup in a good matchup against Hess. Players like Kemp (.338 wOBA), Gonzalez (.322 wOBA), and Marisnick (.181 ISO) could find themselves in the heart of the order. I’m just speculating here, which is part of the game with any late season DFS, so we’ll need to see a posted lineup to be sure. Obviously, if the regulars play, then Bregman (.247 ISO, .393 wOBA), White (.264 ISO, .382 wOBA), Altuve (.373 wOBA), and Springer (.330 wOBA) are all in play. I’m guessing Maldonado or McCann will get the start at catcher and you can consider either of them as punt options. The Astros are big favorites and have an implied total of 5.3 runs.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Ariel Jurado)

What I’m not clear on at the moment is what Jurado’s role will be. He’s currently listed as the starter but he’s been used as a follower in his last four games. Being listed as the starter would seem to indicate that he’ll take the ball in the first inning. So perhaps he’ll be the opener and someone else is going to follow? MLB DFS is going to be brutal next season when a half-dozen teams employ this strategy and we are trying to figure out who is going to get the majority of the innings every day. Regardless, there’s really nobody that could possibly pitch for the Rangers that would make me nervous. So that means I have interest in Seattle. The Mariners aren’t playing for anything at this point other than future jobs and pride. Like Houston, it’s possible they rest regular players and give some younger guys the extra at-bats, so we won’t know anything until rosters post. All of this means we are flying a little blind in this spot. But they have one of the highest implied totals on the main slate at 5.2 runs today, so Vegas clearly has some confidence in them despite the unknowns. There’s plenty to like in this offense as a whole. If we assume Jurado gets the majority of the innings, then we’ll use splits against right-handed pitching as our guideline. Haniger (.224 ISO, .362 wOBA), Cano (.185 ISO, .358 wOBA), and Cruz (.243 ISO, .357 wOBA) are standing out above the rest. You can then mix in Gamel (.331 wOBA), Span (.327 wOBA), Segura (.320 wOBA), and Healy (.192 ISO). Either catcher is interesting. They both bring power upside but strikeout risk. Zunino has more power but a higher strikeout rate, which makes him more risky than Hermann. 

Chicago Cubs (vs. Trevor Williams)

Williams has been a huge second-half surprise and the Pirates have to be excited if he can keep up this pace. He’s 5-2 in his last nine starts with a very impressive 1.32 ERA and a 3.92 xFIP. But despite the recent success, the Cubs need this win to put some distance between themselves and the Brewers for the division title and also the number one seed in the National League. Williams also has some red flags including the xFIP that is over two runs higher than the ERA, a low .245 BABIP, and a low 7.41 K/9. Don’t get me wrong, he’s pitching very well, but I’m not viewing his numbers as something we need to avoid entirely. With this being such a meaningful game for Chicago, in front of their home crowd, I like them to get to Williams tonight. Rizzo (.209 ISO, .377 wOBA), Baez (.270 ISO, .369 wOBA), Murphy (.192 ISO, .362 wOBA), Schwarber (.267 ISO, .357 wOBA), and Happ (.202 ISO, .347 wOBA) lead the way. Zobrist (.360 wOBA), Bryant (.335 wOBA), and Heyward (.323 wOBA) are secondary options. The Cubs have the highest implied total on the main slate at 5.4 runs.  

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