Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Things are getting really fun in the National League as it tightened up even more after last night’s results. First, in the less exciting American League, Chris Herrmann’s walk-off home run pushed the Mariners past the Athletics in 11 innings and officially secured the American League West title for the defending champion Houston Astros. The only thing left in the American League is if Oakland can catch the Yankees and potentially secure home field for the Wild Card playoff. They currently trail by 2.5 games.

Now for the fun part. The National League. Eduardo Escobar and the Diamondbacks had a walk-off home run of their own that gave them a win over the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Colorado took care of business at home. The Dodgers lead the NL West by just a half game now. With the win, Colorado also climbed into the second Wild Card spot after the Cardinals lost to the Brewers. The Cardinals are now on the outside looking in by a half game in the Wild Card. Chris Archer and the Pirates shut down the Cubs last night which reduced their lead on the NL Central to only a half game over the Brewers. There’s a lot of “half game” differences in the National League that are going to swing back and forth over the next few days. Meanwhile, Atlanta, the only National League playoff contender that isn’t sweating at the moment, took care of business against the Mets yesterday. With the Dodgers and Cubs both losing, the Braves now have a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers for the number two seed and trail the Cubs by just two games for the number one seed. Grab yourself some popcorn because this is getting good.

As far as today goes, we have a twelve game slate to discuss.  SP2 is pretty ugly today. There is one pitcher that I feel pretty comfortable with, so I'll likely stick with him and just differentiate elsewhere if playing tournaments. There are a couple of other possible options but I'll need to see posted lineups before deciding. I'll explain in a minute. Weather is still looking iffy in Boston and New York, so just be sure to keep an eye out on that.

High Priced Pitching

Chris Sale, BOS (vs. BAL) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $11K)

If Sale hadn’t been hurt, he would be priced in the same range as deGrom today, so this is an excellent spot to take advantage of the discount. He’s expected to stretch to “90 pitches or more” in this game and Red Sox General Manager Dave Dombrowski announced yesterday that Sale was ready to go and will be the Game 1 starter for Boston in the ALDS. Even if Sale were to get the hook right at 90 pitches, that should be more than enough for him to exceed value in literally the best matchup possible for left-handed pitching. First, it’s the Orioles, who are the worst team in baseball against lefties with a .122 ISO, .276 wOBA, and a 25.3% strikeout rate. Second, this will be the second game of a day-night doubleheader, which could mean a more watered down lineup would be facing Sale in the nightcap. Can Baltimore get more watered down than it already is? I guess we’ll find out. Regardless, at full-strength Sale should embarrass this team tonight. Against lefties, he has a 1.83 xFIP with 38.3% strikeouts, 2.8% walks, and a 0.70 WHIP. Against righties, he has a 2.38 xFIP with 38.5% strikeouts, 6.2% walks, and a 0.89 WHIP. He has 15.9% swinging strikes while forcing 45% groundballs and allowing just 26.2% hard contact. It just doesn’t make any sense to pay the extra $2.1K on DraftKings or $1.3K on FanDuel for deGrom when Sale’s numbers are honestly better (though it’s a smaller sample size with the games he’s missed). We know he’s going 90 pitches and he has a far better matchup against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, while deGrom is taking on the recently crowned National League East champions. deGrom will pitch a great game, I have no doubt. And he’ll be looking to make one final push to win that National League Cy Young Award but I highly doubt he pitches so much better than Sale that it justifies the extra cash you need for him. Sale is my top pitcher on the board today for both cash games and tournaments. 

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (@TB) (DK: $9.5K), FD: $10.7K)

The Rays are a good team and I imagine they will play hard right through the end, despite being eliminated. They should take a lot of pride in what they accomplished this season and they were even able to set themselves up better for the future by being sellers at the trade deadline. It’s nothing short of miraculous what they were able to do this year. They have the lowest payroll in baseball, they were sellers at the trade deadline, they pieced together their rotation with openers and long relievers all season long, and they were the last team in the American League to be eliminated from playoff contention with only a week left to go in the season. If Tampa Bay was in the American League Central or the National League East, they would be one game back of the division lead. Not bad for a team that is “rebuilding." Anyway, I’ll end my love affair with the Rays for now because I’m actually betting against them today. As good as they’ve been, well, Tanaka has been better. In the second-half of the season, Tanaka is 5-3 in 11 starts with a 2.62 ERA and 2.90 xFIP. He has 72 strikeouts to just 12 walks in 68.2 innings. That’s a solid 9.44 K/9 and a low 1.57 BB/9 while forcing 51.3% groundballs. In two starts against the Rays this season, he’s 1-1. His first game, on July 24th, he threw a complete game shutout allowing just three hits and striking out nine. More recently, on August 16th, he went six innings allowing nine hits but only two earned runs and six strikeouts in an eventual loss. The strikeout upside is certainly there and it’s hard to complain about him allowing a total of two earned runs in two starts. VEGAS. I’d be fine with Tanaka in cash today if you wanted to save some salary but I really prefer him as a tournament option on this slate.  

Value Pitching

Andrew Heaney, LAA (vs. TEX) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.5K)

The results haven’t been there but Heaney has pitched much better than what the box scores indicate when we look at the advanced metrics. Since the All-Star break, he’s just 3-4 in 11 starts with a 5.15 ERA but only a 3.43 xFIP. That nearly two run gap between his ERA and xFIP is the first red flag. The second red-flag is the .326 BABIP, which is above average and would also be playing a role in his results. He hasn’t exactly faced a very easy schedule either. Seattle (twice), Detroit (who hits left-handed pitching really well), San Diego (who also hit left-handed pitching well), the Rangers (twice), Houston (three times), and the White Sox. Five of his last eleven starts have come against the Astros or the Mariners who both obliterate left-handed pitching. Despite the less than ideal recent results and the poor history against the Rangers, everything points to us needing to pay attention to him in this spot. In addition to the positive regression, his season long numbers are strong. He has a 3.79 SIERA with 23.6% strikeouts and 11.6% swinging strikes. Right-handed hitters pose the biggest threat but the Rangers don’t have much right-handed power to take advantage of that. In fact, they are not a great team against left-handed pitching at all. They have a .157 ISO, .311 wOBA, and strikeout 22.7% of the time. VEGAS. If you landed here in cash as your SP2, I don’t hate it. There are not a lot of options in this price range with a very strong floor. He’s a strong play for tournaments with the upside he’s displayed and many people are staying away from him after seeing his recent results against the Rangers.

Matthew Boyd, DET (@MIN) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $8.4K)

This one is interesting. First, I'm only considering this on DraftKings. I don't want anything to do with Boyd on a one pitcher site and I don't like the price on FanDuel today anyway. I’m anticipating a lot of people will go Odorizzi here and I don’t mind that idea at all. They are a similar price today, the Twins are favored, and the Tigers have an implied total of only four runs. He pitched really well against them last time out, going 6.1 innings allowing four hits, two earned runs, and striking out six. But depending on what lineup the Twins roll out, I may pivot to Boyd in tournaments. His last game wasn’t great, lasting just 1.1 innings with six hits, five runs (two earned) and only striking out one. As you can see, it wasn’t all his fault though, as only two of the runs were earned. Because of that start, his price dropped dramatically, going from a whopping $9.4K down to $7.7K today. He’s flashed quite a bit of upside recently with 62 strikeouts in his last 62 innings pitched, including a very impressive 11 strikeout game against the Cardinals on September 8th. If we get a Twins lineup today that doesn’t include Sano, Rosario and Garver, I like Boyd’s potential as a sneaky SP2 in tournaments. The Twins active roster has just a .136 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They also strikeout 22.8% of the time. Assuming those three players I mentioned miss, then the only real concern I have in this lineup is Tyler Austin. Like I said, I want to see the lineup before making a final decision but I could see myself landing on either pitcher from this game today. Heaney, who we already talked about, will be my SP2 in cash but both of these guys carry the upside we need, with less ownership, for tournaments on this slate.    

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Carpenter, STL: 1B/3B (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4K)

Chacin's issues have always been with left-handed hitters. He has a super low strikeout rate (only 6.7% swinging strikes) and he allows a .173 xISO and .360 xwOBA. Carpenter enters today's game with a .284 ISO and 48.6% hard-hits against right-handed pitching.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC: OF (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.4K)

Similar to Chacin, Nova has a very low strikeout rate against lefties while allowing a .215 xISO and .378 xwOBA. He'll also be dealing with a massive park downgrade, pitching at Wrigley today with some winds, though not the usual extreme Chicago winds, blowing out. Nova throws a two-seam fastball, fastball, changeup, and curveball. Schwarber profiles well against each of those pitches including a .279 xISO against fastballs, a .232 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .284 xISO against changeups, and a .359 xISO against curveballs.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B/3B (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4K)

The Brewers will look to get one step closer to catching the Cubs in the NL Central, facing off against a struggling John Gant. He's allowing a .173 xISO, .341 xwOBA and over 50% hard-hits to left-handed hitters this season. Shaw has a .293 ISO and 43.4% hard-hits against right-handed pitching.

Value Bats

I didn't mix up the positions as much today as I usually do. These three guys really stood out to me. On FanDuel, you can fit all of them in because Osuna is actually OF eligible on that site. On DraftKings, you can put two of the three together. Normally, I want to help with roster construction as much as I can but I couldn't ignore the value these guys are offering in these matchups.

Jose Osuna, PIT: 1B/3B/OF (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.4K)

Jose Osuna has been getting more playing time down the stretch for the Pirates and he gets a nice matchup today against Jose Quintana. While this is a big park downgrade for the Pirates pitcher Ivan Nova, this is a big upgrade for the Pirates bats. Quintana allows a .194 xISO and .348 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Osuna has massive power against left-handed pitching with a .245 ISO and 37.5% hard-hits.

Eric Hosmer, SD: 1B (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.7K)

This is certainly not the season the Padres were hoping for when they signed Hosmer in the offseason, but he's worth more in this matchup than the price tag he has today. The power is down against right-handed hitting with a .162 ISO but his .344 wOBA and 36.6% hard-hit rate are still solid.

Yolmer Sanchez, CWS: 3B (DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.5K)

Way too cheap on FanDuel today for a player that will likely bat first or second in the order. I'm a huge SHANE Bieber fan (I always have to emphasize the "Shane" part. If I just say I'm a Bieber fan, then people give me weird looks.) He does struggle with lefties however, allowing a .240 xISO and .385 xwOBA. Sanchez has a .478 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games.

Stacks on Stacks

The chalk stack of the day is Colorado. They have an implied total of 6.2 runs.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. John Gant)

I guess a lack of better options is partly to blame, but I don’t understand why the Cardinals are rolling out John Gant in a must win game after they admitted they are “mildly concerned” about his control issues. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in three of his last four starts. He’s had walk totals of 5, 3, 5, 1, 4, and 3 in his last six starts. He got the hook last game after just 2.2 innings pitched when he walked three batters in a row. But sure, let’s go ahead and roll this guy out there with our playoff hopes on the line. In any event, it should lead to good things for the Brewers. Gant is especially bad against lefties where he has a 4.98 xFIP with 19.3% strikeouts and 12.8% walks. He’s allowing over 50% hard contact. That puts the crazy left-handed power of this Milwaukee lineup squarely in the driver’s seat. With a possible National League MVP looming, Yelich leads the way here with his .273 ISO, .418 wOBA, and ridiculous tendencies to hit for the cycle. Shaw has a .293 ISO, .377 wOBA. Granderson (.197 ISO, .346 wOBA), Thames (.272 ISO, .342 wOBA), and Moustakas (.235 ISO, .339 wOBA) are all in play from the left-side. Gant is better, but not great against right-handed pitching. You can feel free to include Aguilar (.267 ISO, .369 wOBA) and Cain (.340 wOBA). The Brewers implied run total doesn’t jump out at me today (4.3 runs) but I thought the same thing yesterday and look what happened (shoutout to @TBIGV who was all over Milwaukee yesterday in the chat). The Brewers have their sights set on the NL Central and a win tonight could get them one step closer. 

Chicago Cubs (vs. Ivan Nova)

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, I don’t see the Cubs getting shut down tonight like they did yesterday. Two big problems for Nova in this one today. First, it’s a massive park downgrade going from PNC Park, which is 26th in runs scored and 24th in home runs, to Wrigley Field, which is 8th in runs scored and 11th in home runs. Second, Nova has a tough time with left-handed hitters, including a 5.10 xFIP, a super low 12.3% strikeout rate, and a 1.35 WHIP. The Cubs, meanwhile, are loaded with left-handed hitters who can exploit this situation. Rizzo tops my list with a .211 ISO and .376 wOBA. Murphy is next with his .199 ISO and .364 wOBA. Schwarber has a .271 ISO and .359 wOBA. Ian Happ has a .206 ISO and .345 wOBA. Javier Baez is not a lefty but it’s not like it makes a difference when you have a .275 ISO and .371 wOBA against right-handed pitching. This group is my priority list. If you need others to make your stack work or you are rolling out multiple lineups, feel free to include Zobrist (.361 wOBA), Bryant (.334 wOBA), and Heyward (.320 wOBA). At the moment, there is no line available for this game, which is typical at Wrigley as we need to understand what the wind will be doing. For the moment, it looks like it will be blowing out, not very heavy, but enough to provide at least a small boost to the bats. I’m projecting the Cubs implied run total to be somewhere in the 5 to 5.2 range when the line is released. 

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Ross Stripling)

Seems like the Diamondbacks are perfectly content playing spoiler between their two NL West rivals. I’m a little surprised at how low the implied total is for them today facing off against Ross Stripling, who is either hurt or forgot how to pitch. He hasn’t gone past 3.1 innings in three straight starts and he’s gone over four innings just once since the All-Star break. He’s given up seven home runs in his last six starts and he’s 0-3 during that span. Hard to believe these numbers are coming from a guy who made the All-Star team this year. Regardless, this could very easily turn into a bullpen game for the Dodgers, who already used quite a few arms last night and blew the game anyway. I expect a regular lineup from Arizona today but if that doesn’t happen then obviously you should pivot elsewhere. Peralta (.255 ISO, .402 wOBA), Goldschmidt (.234 ISO, .385 wOBA), Escobar (.260 ISO, .355 wOBA), and Pollock (.216 ISO, .351 wOBA) are my favorites here. I’d also consider mixing in Descalso (.188 ISO, .332 wOBA) if he makes your stack work better. I’d be careful with Descalso because he could easily get lifted if the Dodgers went to a lefty. The first four players I mentioned should be relatively safe from being pinch hit for and they have the best combination of safety and upside from this team. Like I said, Vegas does not agree with me here, as the Dodgers are actually favored and the Diamondbacks have an implied total of only 3.7 runs. I like Arizona to pick up the win along with Colorado tonight, and when we wake up tomorrow, the Rockies will be in the driver’s seat for the National League West.  

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

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