Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

I’m going to continue doing daily playoff picture updates as I think there could be some useful information we can pull away that might help us with our roster construction for the rest of this week. Things heated up a bit in the National League last night while the American League is basically set at this point.

The Rays lost to the Yankees, which officially eliminates them from the postseason and clinches the final spot for Oakland. The five teams that will represent the American League are now set but there are still a few things up for grabs. Oakland can still pass the Yankees, trailing by only 1.5 games, for the top Wild Card spot which would allow them to play at home in the one game playoff. Oakland can also still technically catch Houston who leads the AL West by 4.5 games, but that seems less likely. With their franchise-record 106th win last night, the Red Sox have officially secured the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Those of you from the Boston area, I’ll see you at The Cask in October.

The National League heated up yesterday. Jameson Taillon shut down the Cubs while the Brewers opened up their crucial series against the Cardinals with a win. The Cubs lead in the NL Central is now just 1.5 games, while the Brewers opened up their lead on the first Wild Card spot to three games. With the Rockies win over the Phillies and the Cardinals loss, Colorado is now just a half game back for the second Wild Card spot. The Dodgers won their game and maintained their 1.5 game lead in the NL West. The Braves are the only team that’s secured their division but they are still fighting for seeding as they trail the Cubs by three games for the top seed and they lead the Dodgers by just a half game for the number two seed. 

Once again, I don’t think that you “must have” players from the teams that are still contending, there are definitely pieces from other teams that can be used. I think it’s helpful to understand the big picture and when it makes sense to do so, I will likely lean toward players who still have something to play for over those that do not. Remember to leave yourself extra time to make adjustments before lock as weird things will be happening with rotations and lineups. We had a couple of pitchers get scratched yesterday and we had some non-competing teams roll out some very watered down lineups to either give their young guys a look for next season or to rest their starters as they prepare for next month. 

Before we get started, MLB.com is reporting that Carlos Carrasco will follow Trevor Bauer today, which is super interesting. I haven’t been able to confirm that anywhere else. Bauer is supposed to go three to four innings before handing the ball off to Carrasco. On the one hand, this could make Carrasco super sneaky. On the other hand, if Bauer is going to go three or four innings, then Carrasco will likely do the same. I think this is the Indians' way of continuing Bauer’s rehab but also letting Carrasco stay warm by just doing some short outings. I’m going to look for more information about this but if both guys are only doing three to four innings each, it’s tough to justify their salaries.  

High Priced Pitching

Max Scherzer, WAS (DK: $12.8K, FD: $12.4K)

The last time Max Scherzer pitched, I wrote about him in this article and talked about his recent “struggles” (by Mad Max standards) and that we didn’t need to worry about him. Yes, it’s true, he’s given up at least three earned runs in five straight starts and even gave up six earned runs on September 14th. Everything in his numbers during that span suggests he’s been unlucky. A high ERA but a super low xFIP and a very high BABIP against him. Sure enough, he gets tagged for three earned runs in the third inning in that last start, and the angry hate messages started flowing my way. My response to those messages was to be patient. Pitchers are always going to give up runs and it’s how they respond after a bad inning that will make or break their night. Sure enough, he didn’t give up another run the rest of the night (though the bullpen did and blew it for him) and he racked up 13 strikeouts along the way. He’s Max Scherzer. He might give up a few hits and even a few runs but his floor and ceiling are both massive and even on a “bad night” he will still come through for you nine times out of ten. He finished with 31.6 DraftKings points and 55 FanDuel points. Are you still upset you rostered him? I wasn’t. The same applies here again tonight. His ERA over the last month is significantly higher than the xFIP (5.00 ERA and 2.84 xFIP) and the BABIP is through the roof at .361. He’s getting a little unlucky but still pitching fantastic baseball. Don’t overthink it. He’s the best pitcher on this slate and arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Forgot to mention, he’s facing Miami tonight, so if you needed an additional confidence booster, there you have it. He’s the top pitcher on the board today for both cash and tournaments.  

David Price, BOS (vs. BAL) (DK: $9.5K, FD: $9.8K)

Coming off another embarrassing loss in Yankee Stadium, Price will look to bounce back today against Baltimore. With so much focus on that recent outing, I think people are going to forget that Price had been pitching extremely well. Since the All-Star break, not including the last start, he’s 5-0 in nine starts with a 1.56 ERA and a 3.24 xFIP. He has 60 strikeouts to only nine walks in 57.2 innings of work. He’s allowed just ten earned runs and two home runs during that span. He hasn’t exactly faced easy matchups either, including the Astros, Indians, Rays, Yankees (at home), and Phillies. He’s had two double-digit strikeout games during that span. One of those came against this very Baltimore team who he has dominated all season. He’s 2-0 in two starts. The first one he threw a complete game, allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight and he needed just 95 pitches to get through the entire game. The last start, he went six innings allowing five hits and zero earned runs while striking out ten. Baltimore, using the criteria I’ve built, is currently the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .122 ISO, .276 wOBA and a very high 25.3% strikeout rate. With Scherzer and Buehler, who is pitching fantastic recently, both getting attention today I think Price, especially after that last start, could fly completely under the radar in a prime bounce back matchup. Boston, unsurprisingly, is a massive -310 favorite and the Orioles have an implied total of only 3.2 runs. I honestly don’t hate Price in cash today if you didn’t want to pay up for Scherzer and I love him for tournaments on this slate.  

Value Pitching

Josh James, HOU (@TOR) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $6.5K)

It was a fun couple of weeks printing money with Josh James at minimum salary but unfortunately, at least on DraftKings, it looks like our time is over. James will get another start and has been an absolute beast since being called up to the big leagues. He’s 1-0 in two starts plus he’s made some relief appearances. He has a 2.81 ERA and a 2.73 xFIP. His strikeout rate is unbelievable with 24 strikeouts to only six walks in 16 innings pitched (that’s a 13.5 K/9). He’s making a strong case to be a part of the playoff roster even if only out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows today. The big question mark here is the price tag. Before today, we’d been getting James at minimum salary, which was literally highway robbery. Today, on DraftKings, his price skyrocketed from $4.1K to $8.1K, which is a crazy jump. He’s still a steal on FanDuel at only $6.5K so just keep that in mind. You have to think about it more on DraftKings. I think he’s shown us already he has the ability to pay off this salary despite being significantly higher. In his last outing, he put up 26.4 DraftKings points, which is an excellent return for someone priced in the mid-tier. I’m guessing people will balk at the price hike but I think that’s a mistake. It feels like he’s overpriced because it’s such a significant difference, but in reality, he’s just priced fairly now where as before he was way under market value. I will absolutely have exposure to him on FanDuel today. On DraftKings, I won't go out of my way to "force" him in but if roster construction leads me to use him, despite the price increase, I'll be completely fine with that. I even think you can consider him as an SP2 in cash games on two pitcher sites.

Touki Toussaint, ATL (@NYM) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $6.4K)

This is the ultimate tournament play tonight with Toussaint having incredible talent but being extremely volatile so far. He was a first round draft pick (number 16 overall) in 2014. His minor league numbers were super impressive this season. He had a 1.43 ERA and a 2.18 xFIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate. He was allowing only a .193 AVG with a 1.03 WHIP. Based on those stats, it’s very easy to see why he got called up. Unfortunately, he’s been about as unpredictable as it gets during his short time in the majors. The strikeout upside he displayed in Triple-A is still there but the walks are a serious problem. He’s 2-1 in four starts with 23 strikeouts and 16 walks in 23 innings. That’s a solid 9 K/9 but a treacherous 6.26 BB/9. He’s coming off of his best start so far, going 5.2 innings allowing five hits, two earned runs and striking out eight. He managed to allow only three walks, which still isn’t good but it’s an improvement. That was also a tough matchup against the Cardinals. The question is, which guy shows up today? 

It’s difficult to predict, but now that he has several starts under his belt and he showed some really encouraging signs of figuring it out in his last start, I’d like to jump on this opportunity tonight before others catch on. He’ll go completely under the radar today as an underdog with Noah Syndergaard pitching against him. But if he can limit the walks and he flashes that double-digit strikeout upside, it could lead to a huge payoff of his very reasonable salary. This is a no-floor, high-ceiling, tournament-only play tonight.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

J.D Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.8K)

Excuse me while I state the obvious for a second. This is a great spot for Martinez against Jimmy Yacabonis who will get another start for Baltimore today. Yacabonis has allowed eight home runs and six of them are to right-handed hitters. They have a .247 xISO and .358 xwOBA against him this season. Martinez has a .319 ISO and 44.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. It wouldn’t totally shock me if he were to sit out, as I’m sure Boston will give their stars some extra days off this week as they get ready for their first round playoff matchup. If he does happen to sit, you can honestly substitute guys like Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, etc. in this spot. I doubt they would all sit on the same night.  

Manny Machado, LAD: SS (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.5K)

The more Dodgers exposure tonight, the better. Machado is in a great spot against Matt Koch who had been demoted to the bullpen but will make a spot start today with the Diamondbacks no longer in the playoff hunt. Machado has a .244 ISO and .374 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season while Koch is allowing a .306 xISO and .440 xwOBA to right-handed batters. Koch throws a fastball nearly 50% of the time and Machado smashes fastballs with a .305 xISO and 85.4 mph average exit velocity.

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE: 1B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $4K)

Could it be? Will this really be the last time this year that I have to hear the words “Big Game James”? That would be outstanding. Shields will try to catch Dylan Bundy for most home runs allowed in the league today. Bundy has allowed 39 and Shields has allowed 33, so he’ll need a little help from Encarnacion. Shields is allowing a .238 xISO to right-handed hitters this season and Encarnacion has a .249 ISO and 41.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Cory Spangenberg, SD: 2B/3B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.1K)

The Padres get matched up today with Chris Stratton who continues to get hit hard by both sides of the plate. He’s particularly weak against lefties where he’s allowing a .223 xISO and .374 xwOBA. Spangenberg is standing out as a cheap value bat today. He has a respectable .321 wOBA and 38.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.    

Kole Calhoun, LAA: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.9K)

The Angels will go completely overlooked today. They are not the best team to stack but it’s hard to argue with their matchup and implied total tonight. At the very least, we have some pieces to work with from this lineup. Calhoun is standing out big time as he’s very inexpensive and will bat leadoff against Yovani Gallardo who is allowing a .224 xISO and .376 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Calhoun has a .478 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games and a 93.4 mph average exit velocity over the past two weeks against right-handed pitching. 

David Freese, LAD: 1B/3B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.3K)

Major discrepancies in pricing on the Dodgers players between the two sites today. Nobody stands out more than Freese, who is $1.9K cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. He’s been batting in the heart of the order for this Dodgers lineup and gets a prime matchup today against Matt Koch. As I’ve already highlighted, Koch is struggling with both sides of the plate, allowing a .306 xISO and .440 xwOBA to right-handed batters. Freese has a .184 ISO and .339 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I don’t see how you can avoid him today on FanDuel at that price.  

Stacks on Stacks

I'll exclude Coors Field as usual. Both of those teams are obviously in play but the Rockies should be the chalk stack of the night with their implied total of 6.2 runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Matt Koch)

I kind of spoiled this one already dropping hints throughout the article. With Clay Buchholz’s storybook comeback season being cut short and the Diamondbacks now out of playoff contention, they will laughably turn to Matt Koch today for a spot start. The Rockies must be rolling their eyes as they try to catch the Dodgers and know they are getting a freebie tonight. If you don’t remember Koch, he opened the season as a regular starter for this team and was horrendously bad before being demoted to the bullpen. In 12 starts, he was 5-4, which admittedly isn’t terrible but he was often saved by the strong Arizona bullpen. He has a 4.52 ERA but a 5.04 xFIP and a very low .247 BABIP. He’s been more lucky than good. He has only 35 strikeouts and 17 walks in 69.2 innings pitched. That’s an extremely low 4.52 K/9. He’s also allowed 16 home runs in those 12 starts, good for a 2.07 HR/9. That’s going to lead to big problems against this very powerful Dodgers lineup. Koch is allowing a .297 xISO and .372 xwOBA to lefties and a .306 xISO and .440 wOBA to righties. I’ll give the slight edge to right-handed hitters based on those numbers, but as you can see, feel free to stack this lineup however you want today. Muncy (.325 ISO, .412 wOBA), Puig (.266 ISO, .397 wOBA), Turner (.200 ISO, .389 wOBA), Pederson (.295 ISO, .377 wOBA), Machado (.244 ISO, .374 wOBA), Bellinger (.232 ISO, .362 wOBA), Grandal (.238 ISO, .352 wOBA), Hernandez (.243 ISO, .341 wOBA), Kemp (.339 wOBA), Freese (.184 ISO, .339 wOBA), should I keep going? Don’t forget Taylor, Dozier, and even Verdugo. How is this team not running away with the National League right now? The Dodgers opened with an implied total of 4.7 runs which has started to climb and currently sits at 4.8 runs.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Spencer Turnbull)

In the battle of two teams who have been eliminated for a while, we have Turnbull making his second major league start tonight. This feels like a disaster waiting to happen. His first start was against this same Twins team and he got shelled allowing six hits and six earned runs in only four innings of work. He had just two strikeouts. As you know, the risk typically falls on the pitcher when they start against the same team in a short time frame. If he struggled in his first start against these guys and now has to go on the road and face them again five days later, what do we think is going to happen? To the Tigers, it doesn’t matter. They aren’t playing for anything and they are simply viewing this as an opportunity to give this guy some major league experience. But for us, this shapes up as a great spot to load up on some Twins bats. Don’t get me wrong, looking over Turnbull’s numbers, I understand how he got promoted. But this looks like he may have been rushed up a bit as he only made two starts at the Triple-A level before getting to Detroit. Unfortunately, the Twins are not the most exciting offense to stack and that is magnified without Eddie Rosario, but there are still some pieces we can use today. Astudillo tops my list as he’s been on fire during his current time with the team. He has a .196 ISO and .396 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Polanco lacks the power but has a very solid .364 wOBA. Jake Cave has essentially taken over for Rosario, batting in the third spot of this order and he’s filling in quite well. He has a .219 ISO and .349 wOBA nearly identical to Rosario’s .219 ISO and .352 wOBA. Tyler Austin and Miguel Sano fall under the “boom or bust” category with a lot of power but also a lot of strikeouts. Austin has a .229 ISO and Sano has a .204 ISO against right-handed pitching. Sano is currently listed as day-to-day, so keep an eye on that. The Twins have an implied total of 5.2 runs today.

Houston Astros (vs. Sam Gaviglio)

Another day, another game where the Houston Astros score at least five runs. That’s 14 of their last 18 games where the Astros have scored five runs or more. This team is hot right now and they are looking to secure the American League West title for the second consecutive year. Gaviglio has been solid at times this season and I’ve even rostered him from time to time in DFS but I’ll gladly bet against him in this spot. Once again, Houston is projected to score over five runs with an implied total of 5.2 in Vegas. Gaviglio is allowing a .203 ISO and .354 wOBA to lefties and a .190 ISO and .341 wOBA to righties. The same guys we’ve been talking about for the past few days are in play. Bregman leads the way with his .243 ISO and .391 wOBA. White (.278 ISO, .392 wOBA), Altuve (.378 wOBA), and Springer (.331 wOBA) are high on my list. I also have interest in Kemp (.348 wOBA) and Gonzalez (.324 wOBA). Gattis has power upside with his .207 ISO but a low floor against right-handed pitching. He’s certainly in consideration. Correa is still not playing at this point, and even if he cracks the lineup, I’d want to see him for a couple of games before I considered using him. At this point, with less than a week to go, I doubt we roster him in DFS anymore this year. The Astros have been working out great recently and with the games still being meaningful to them, I see no reason to hop off this train today.

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).