Top MLB Plays 9/24 | There's Still A Lot at Stake

September 24, 2018

Happy Monday everyone! I hope you all survived a pretty crazy NFL Sunday. We have one week to go in the MLB regular season. There is still a lot up for grabs. So before we jump into today’s slate, let’s make sure we are clear on the playoff picture as of today:

Boston: Clinched AL East and lead Houston by 6.5 games for home field advantage throughout playoffs.

New York: Clinched AL Wild Card and lead Oakland by 1.5 games for home field in Wild Card game.

Cleveland: Clinched AL Central, they are locked into the third seed and have nothing to play for.

Houston: Clinched playoff spot. Lead OAK by 4.5 games in AL West, trail Boston by 6.5 games for home field throughout the playoffs. Pretty safe to say they will be the two seed and take on Cleveland in the first round.

Oakland: Trail Houston by 4.5 games in AL West and New York by 1.5 games for first Wild Card spot. Lead Tampa Bay by 6.5 games for second Wild Card Spot. A win today or a loss by Tampa Bay will clinch a playoff berth. They want to catch the Yankees and play at home in the Wild Card game.

Atlanta: Clinched NL East and trail Chicago by 3.5 games for the top seed in the National League and lead Los Angeles by 1 game for the second seed.

Chicago: Lead Milwaukee by 2.5 games and St. Louis by 4.5 games in the NL Central; lead Atlanta by 3.5 games for top seed in the National League.

Milwaukee: Trail Chicago by 2.5 games in NL Central and lead St. Louis by 2 games for first Wild Card spot.

St. Louis: Trail Chicago by 4.5 games for NL Central; lead Colorado by 1.5 games for second Wild Card spot; trail Milwaukee by 2 games for first Wild Card spot.

Los Angeles: Lead Colorado by 1.5 games in NL West; trail Atlanta by 1 game for second seed in National League.

Colorado: Trail Los Angeles by 1.5 games in NL West, trail St. Louis by 1.5 games for second Wild Car spot.

Got all that? A few things stand out. First, things are pretty much set in the American League with one exception. Oakland can still catch the Yankees and earn a home game for the Wild Card playoff. I expect both teams to continue playing hard through the end. In the National League, there is still a lot to figure out. The upcoming series between the Cardinals and Brewers will decide a lot and the remaining playoff contenders either haven’t locked up playoff berths yet or can still improve their seed. What makes today particularly challenging is most of the teams that still have something to play for are not in the best spots. In the National League, the Cubs have a difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon, the Brewers have their hands full with Jack Flaherty, we actually don’t know who is pitching against the Cardinals today and the Dodgers get Robbie Ray on the road in Arizona. In the American League, Oakland gets James Paxton and the Yankees get the Rays, who will start with Diego Castillo with Ryan Yarbrough looking like the follow guy today as he’ll be on normal rest. As much as I’d like to load up on the teams with something to play for, I’m not going to do it if the matchup doesn’t make sense. Alright, hopefully that clears a few things up. Let’s see what we have in store for us today.

High Priced Pitching

Corey Kluber, CLE (@CWS) (DK: $10.9K, FD: $12K)

The Indians continue to move members of their rotation around to give guys some extra rest as they prepare for another postseason run. Kluber will get the nod today, in a great spot, against a White Sox team that loves to strikeout. After having just one start since the All-Star break with more than seven strikeouts, he’s bounced back with two double-digit strikeout games in his last three starts (granted there is a game with only four strikeouts between those starts). This will actually be his second start in a row against the White Sox. The last one, he went eight innings, allowing eight hits, three earned runs, and picking up 11 strikeouts. Normally, facing the same team twice in a row is a risk for the pitcher, but I’m willing to make an exception in this case for two reasons: 1) The quality of that pitcher 2) his history against this team. In addition to the last start, he faced Chicago two other times this season. He’s 2-0 in those starts, allowing zero earned runs, with 10 and seven strikeouts in each of those games. Basically, he’s been dominant. Kluber continues to put together a quality season, with a 3.26 SIERA, 25.9% strikeouts, and 11.7% swinging strikes. He has just a 3.9% walk rate and a 0.98 WHIP. In the past month, he’s been even better, with a 2.86 SIERA with 33.1% strikeouts and 16.2% swinging strikes. We know the deal with the White Sox by now. They have plenty of power, and therefore a lot of upside, but the floor is essentially non-existent with this team. They strikeout 25.7% of the time against right-handed pitching with only a 6.7% walk rate. They are just swinging for the fences. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Kluber makes for an outstanding option for both cash games and tournaments on today’s slate.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (vs. MIA) (DK: $10.1K, FD: $11.2K)

Speaking of pitchers making their second straight start against the same team, Strasburg will take the mound against the Marlins just five days removed from completely dominating them in his last outing. He went six innings allowing five hits and two earned runs while striking out 11. For those of you scoring at home, 11 strikeouts in just six innings of work equals a 16.5 K/9. This is an almost identical situation to Kluber, where normally there’s added risk for a pitcher facing the same team for the second consecutive start, but in this case, the quality of the pitcher and his history in this matchup outweigh that risk. In addition to the last outing, Strasburg had a another very successful performance against this team, back on May 27th, where he went five innings allowing three hits, zero earned runs, and striking out eight. His numbers this season are very strong with a 3.24 SIERA, 28.9% strikeouts, and 12.1% swinging strikes. He’s been on fire for the past month with a 3.37 SIERA, 29.5% strikeouts, and 14.1% swinging strikes. There is very little not to like here and Vegas seems to agree, as Washington is a -250 favorite and the Marlins implied total has dropped to 2.9 runs. I prefer Kluber, as I believe both of these guys have similar floors but he has the higher ceiling with a better strikeout rate and facing a team that has a higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. With that said, if you need the extra salary savings, particularly on FanDuel where there is a bigger difference, I’m completely fine with Strasburg in cash today and I love him as a pivot in tournaments.

Value Pitching

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (@TOR) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $8.2K)

The lack of true upside with Keuchel makes him very difficult to use in tournaments but he does provide us with a solid floor as an SP2 in cash games. He’s not an exciting pitcher to roster but his results are almost always the same. He’ll eat up some innings, keep the runs to a minimum, and hopefully pick up a few strikeouts along the way. He’s not having the greatest second half of the season with a 3-3 record in 11 starts. He has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.02 xFIP plus a .308 BABIP, so there are very few signs of any regression coming. He has 48 strikeouts and 20 walks in 66.2 innings. He’s only allowed five home runs and forces a 52.3% groundball rate, so those are both certainly positives in terms of his ability to prevent runs. He also hasn’t gone less than five innings in any start and eight of his last 11 starts have been six innings or more. Again, the floor here is solid. What really stands out to me is the teams he’s faced during this span: Seattle (three times), Oakland (twice), Boston, and Arizona plus Texas, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. The majority of his games have been against teams either headed to the playoffs or had playoff potential right up until the very end. He’s never a guy that I view as a “must have” but he’s always an option you can keep in the back of your mind when you have a weak mid-tier/value-tier pitching slate. He’s a floor play, but at this price, he makes for a solid SP2 option in cash. Houston is a heavy -181 favorite and the Blue Jays have a low 3.8 implied run total today.

Nathan Eovaldi, BOS (vs. BAL) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.4K)

Eovaldi will make a spot start today after spending time in the bullpen and as the long relief pitcher for Chris Sale during his rehab. The Red Sox haven’t made any final decisions on their playoff rotation while they wait to see who they will face, but Eovaldi has been outstanding against the Yankees and should certainly be in the conversation if that’s who they end up playing. He hasn’t been very good against other teams, oddly enough, but a solid performance here would go a long way toward boosting everyone’s confidence. His full body of work from all of this season is still strong with a 3.97 SIERA, 20.3% strikeouts, and 10.7% swinging strikes. He has only 4.7% walks and a very low 1.15 WHIP. He’s allowing an average .176 xISO and .331 xwOBA to lefties and a below average .147 xISO and .283 xwOBA to righties. If we were only looking at these numbers, we’d say he was a steal today. Since joining the Red Sox, however, it’s been a bit of a roller coaster. He’s 2-3 with a 3.64 ERA but a 4.50 xFIP. The BABIP against him is high at .320, so it’s a little difficult to judge right now which way regression is going to hit. He has 34 strikeouts and 19 walks in 47 innings pitched. The good news is, he’s faced some pretty difficult competition including the Yankees twice, the Phillies, Indians, Rays, and Braves, so that can help explain at least some of his below average results. Today, he gets the Orioles who have only a .130 ISO and .292 wOBA over their last 30 days. They are also striking out 22.8% of the time. This should be a team that Eovaldi can navigate through but it’s tough to trust him in cash games right now. The Red Sox are heavy -214 favorites and the Orioles have an implied total of only 3.8 runs. He makes for a solid tournament option today at his reduced price.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Alex Bregman, HOU: 3B/SS (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.3K)

As you’ll see shortly, I love the Astros today but Bregman in particular is standing out. He’s really stepped up this season with Springer, Altuve, and Correa all battling injuries. He has a .243 ISO, and .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching while Estrada is allowing a .289 xISO and .375 xwOBA to right-handed hitting. Estrada throws his fastball 51.5% of the time and his changeup 33% of the time with a couple other pitches lightly mixed in. Bregman has a .314 xISO against fastballs and a .309 xISO against changeups.

Mitch Moreland, BOS: 1B (DK: $3.9, FD: $3K)

I really like the price on Moreland today against Dylan Bundy. Fenway isn’t the best ballpark in the world for left-handed home runs but it’s hard to ignore just how bad Bundy is. As we know, he’s allowed the most home runs in baseball (by far) and left-handed hitters have a massive .259 xISO against him. Moreland profiles beautifully against Bundy, who throws a fastball, changeup, and curveball most often. Moreland has a .373 xISO against fastballs, a .190 xISO against changeups, and a .402 xISO against curveballs this season.

Mike Trout, LAA: OF (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5K)

I can’t end the season without at least one more Mike Trout call. It’s a small sample size but Sampson is getting pummeled by right-handed hitting in his short time in the majors. He’s allowing a ridiculous .374 xISO and .537 xwOBA so far. His most often thrown pitch is a sinker, which he uses 65% of the time. Trout has a .341 xISO and a .519 xwOBA against sinkers this season. It’s always difficult to fit Trout into lineups but this looks like a great spot to put up some serious fantasy production.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Jake Marisnick, HOU: OF (DK: $2.8K, FD: $2K)

He’ll bat last but he’ll give you really cheap exposure to one of the better teams on the slate and some power upside in a great matchup. We’ve already made Estrada’s struggles with right-handed hitters known. Marisnick has a respectable .488 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching with a 1.98 FP/PA. I don’t hate the idea of using him in a wrap-around stack with the top of the Houston lineup as a way to differentiate.

Freddy Galvis, SDP: SS (DK: 3.4K, FD: $2.7K)

Galvis gets a strong matchup against Derek Holland. The process is the same as it’s always been here. Galvis is significantly stronger as a right-handed batter facing lefties but his price stays low because of his full body of work. He will move to the top of the order, which makes him a plug and play in cash if you need some salary savings. He has a .484 wOBA+ISO and a 1.79 FP/PA against left-handed pitching over his last 150 at-bats. He won’t break the slate but he should give you some points and open up salary for the rest of your lineup.

Ryon Healy, SEA: 1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K)

Overall, it’s been a disappointing season for Healy but he still has power and he should bat in the middle third of a strong offense. The Mariners won’t make the playoffs this season but they are a good baseball team. If they were in the National League west instead of the American League west, they would be tied currently with Colorado only 1.5 games out of the division lead. It’s not completely clear if Mengden is going to pitch as a true starter or just the opener today. I’d expect him to go somewhere between four and five innings. He’s allowing a .491 wOBA+ISO to right-handed pitching over his last 20 starts. Healy has a .504 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games. The floor is low but I like his upside at this price.

Stacks on Stacks

I'm going to exclude the two teams at Coors Field tonight as the chalk stacks of the day. There are a couple of other teams with very high totals that seem obvious but I'm not completely sold. I'll explain in a minute. The Rockies have some left-handed power that can take advantage of Pivetta’s weak splits and the Phillies have a bunch of right-handed power that can do some damage against Tyler Anderson in this park.

Houston Astros (vs. Marco Estrada)

The Astros are on fire right now. They’ve scored five runs or more in 13 of their last 17 games and are coming off an impressive weekend series against the Angels who they outscored 27 to 10 in three games. Today, with the aforementioned teams set to get most of the attention, we could be looking at this squad being a little more sneaky with a park upgrade going to the Rogers Centre to take on Marco Estrada. Estrada has been bad. Especially recently. In the month of September, he’s 0-3 in four starts with a 6.48 xFIP and only 13 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched. Both sides of the plate hit him hard but right-handed hitters are especially strong against him, which only further adds to the appeal of this right-handed heavy Houston offense. Estrada is allowing a .180 xISO and .318 xwOBA to lefties and a .289 xISO and .375 xwOBA to righties. Bregman (.243 ISO, .392 wOBA), White (.278 ISO, .392 wOBA), Altuve (.378 wOBA), Springer (.332 wOBA), and Kemp (.351 wOBA) are at the top of my list. You can also mix in Gonzales (.324 wOBA) and Gattis (.209 ISO). I would hold off on Correa for now, he still doesn’t seem right. Houston held him out of the lineup all weekend to give him some extra time off. I’m guessing he’ll take batting practice today and they’ll decide if he should play or not. They’ve got to get him right before the playoffs. The Astros currently have an implied total of 5.3 runs.

New York Yankees (vs. Diego Castillo and Ryan Yarbrough)

The Yankees would love to shut the door on Oakland and secure a home game in the Wild Card. Tonight could be their first step in doing just that. It’s not the best matchup in the world but it’s better than what most of the other contenders have to face today. Plus, normally an offense that’s popular, they should fly under the radar today with some of the other good spots on this slate. I won’t deny it, Yarbrough has been strong. He’s 15-5 with a 3.88 ERA. But his 4.34 xFIP and .285 BABIP paint a slightly different picture. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside either (123 in 139.1 innings this season) which gives a further boost to this Yankees offense. As we know, the Yankees crush left-handed pitching with a .208 ISO, .346 wOBA, and 38.9% hard-hit rate. Voit is a man on fire right now and you need to continue buying with his .357 ISO and .442 wOBA. Stanton against lefties is always a good decision. Even with him being so frustrating this season, he still has a .319 ISO, .423 wOBA, and 56.4% hard-hit rate. Judge (.262 ISO, .398 wOBA), Torres (.318 ISO, .378 wOBA), McCutchen (.196 ISO, .358 wOBA), Hicks (.263 ISO, .351 wOBA), and you get the point. This whole lineup is in play. Didi Gregorius will be out tonight and potentially the rest of the season after he hurt his wrist over the weekend. That will be a big loss for the Yankees in the playoffs. There’s still no line on this game, which is common with games that include the Rays, but I would expect the Yankees to be in the high four range, maybe five implied runs when they are finally published. Even in a bad ballpark for offense, this is a very meaningful game and the Yankees can put up runs anywhere.

For my third stack, things are a bit trickier and it may depend on some starting pitchers being announced. I mentioned the Red Sox, who I think could be chalky against Bundy, but their implied total is currently falling off a cliff. I think Vegas is expecting them to roll out a watered down lineup and rest some guys down the stretch. I’d need to see what the lineup looks like before making a final decision. I’m seeing similar activity in Vegas for Cleveland as well, as their implied total opened at 5.7 runs and it’s down to 5.4 runs. I want to see the lineup before figuring out what to do. The Cardinals also have a big game today against the Brewers and I liked them originally against Chase Anderson but now it looks like he’ll be scratched for the same reasons I wanted to stack the Cardinals. If Milwaukee goes with a bullpen game, I have less interest. The Rays might be interesting as well, as I think they’ll continue to play hard down the stretch (they are technically not eliminated just yet) but we don’t know who is pitching for the Yankees today. All of these teams are on my radar but I just can’t make a recommendation here until I have more details to work with.

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