Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Weekend everyone! Yikes, today is a not a great slate. There are a couple of big name pitchers in the high tier and then a whole bunch of nothing. Nobody in the mid and value tiers meets my criteria from a season long perspective in terms of their statistics. We are going to have to lean a little more heavily on recent results, which is risky, and put more weight on the activity in Vegas today then what I would normally do in order to narrow down our choices. Plenty of spots for offense on this slate which I guess we shouldn’t be surprised about with the weak pitching. 

Before we jump into today’s slate I wanted to highlight Victor Martinez who announced that today will be the final game of his career. The Tigers play all of their remaining games on the road so it makes sense he’d want to finish with a home game in front of the Detroit faithful. The 39 year-old spent eight seasons with the Indians, two with the Red Sox, and seven in Detroit. He’s a five-time All-Star and finished second in American League MVP voting in 2014. He has 246 career home runs, 423 doubles, and a career .295 batting average. Thank you V-Mart for a great career. 

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High Priced Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. LAA) (DK: $12.1K, FD: $12.2K)

Verlander checks in as the most expensive arm on the slate in a matchup against an Angels team that is already holding tryouts for next season. He’s had a couple of hiccups along the way but as usual he’s putting together another top quality season. He’s been particularly strong in the second-half with a 2.40 xFIP, 97 strikeouts to just 12 walks in 64.1 innings pitched. That’s a massive 13.57 K/9 and an extremely low 1.68 BB/9. All of this has happened despite a .348 BABIP which suggests he’s actually pitching better than what these numbers are telling us. I’m not even sure how that’s possible. Today’s matchup with the Angels will be his sixth of the season and the previous five have all gone very well. He’s 4-1 and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of the games including two with zero earned runs (one of them a complete game). He’s had double-digit strikeouts twice and four of the five starts have had seven strikeouts or more. He has a 2.42 ERA and a 2.73 xFIP. The Angels are giving more at-bats to their younger guys trying to figure out what they have for the future. Their numbers over the past month have dropped dramatically with a .150 ISO, .290 wOBA, and only 84 wRC+. They are striking out more as well at a 22.8% rate. All of this simply means good news for Verlander (as if he needed any additional help). The Astros are -274 favorites and the Angels have the lowest implied total on the board at just 2.8 runs. Unsurprisingly, Verlander is your top pitcher on the slate for cash games and tournaments today.  

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. COL) (DK: $10.4K, FD: $9.8K)

Admittedly not the best matchup as the Rockies hit left-handed pitching really well but some of that is inflated by playing at Coors Field so often and they are still without Trevor Story who is one of their top hitters against lefties. Good matchup or not, Corbin is pitching incredibly well. He’s 5-2 in 11 starts since the All-Star break. He has a 2.11 xFIP with 88 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 69.2 innings of work. His full season numbers are equally impressive with a 2.85 SIERA, 31% strikeouts and 15.5% swinging strikes. Both the strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are better than Verlander yet he comes at a significant discount. He has only 5.6% walks and a 1.03 WHIP while forcing nearly 50% groundballs. He’s excellent to both sides of the plate which is very important against this lineup. He has a 2.29 xFIP, 34.5% strikeouts, and a 53.7% groundball rate to lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.63 xFIP with 30% strikeouts and a 46.7% groundball rate. The only real red flag here is the hard contact allowed which is just over 42% to both sides of the plate. The ballpark downgrade for Colorado should help offset the high hard contact, however, and while the Rockies have some power upside they are striking out nearly 24% of the time over the past two weeks. The Diamondbacks are -167 favorites and the Rockies have an implied total of 3.3 runs. I don’t hate the idea of using him in cash if you need the extra salary but I still prefer Verlander if possible. He makes for a fantastic pivot off Verlander in tournaments with a similar ceiling despite a lower floor today.  

Value Pitching

Mike Fiers, OAK (vs. MIN) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $7.8K)

His numbers don’t grab your attention. He has a 4.26 SIERA with only 19.5% strikeouts and 8.5% swinging strikes. He’s allowing 42.6% fly balls and 38.5% hard contact this season. Not great right? A switch was flipped though when he joined Oakland. Maybe he just needed a change of scenery, or perhaps playing for a contender has been motivating, or maybe he’s benefitting from the pitcher friendly ballpark to help with his high fly ball rate. Whatever the reason, he’s 5-1 in eight starts as a member of the Athletics. He has a 3.56 xFIP (only slightly higher than his 3.09 ERA) with 44 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 43.2 innings pitched. That’s a solid 9.07 K/9 and a 2.06 BB/9. He’s faced some stiff competition during this stretch as well including the Dodgers, the Mariners (twice), the Yankees, the Rays, and the Rangers. He also faced these same Twins, back on August 25th, and went 5.2 innings, allowing five hits, only one earned run, and picking up seven strikeouts. Minnesota is not a scary matchup with a .161 ISO, .315 wOBA, and 96 wRC+ this season against right-handed pitching. They also strikeout 21.7% of the time. After being as high as $9.6K on DraftKings at the end of August his price has settled down to a more reasonable ask which should allow him to reach value. Oakland is a massive -230 favorite and the Twins have a low implied total of 3.4 runs. I don’t love Fiers based on his full body of work but you can definitely make an argument for him based on his time in Oakland and how Vegas is viewing this matchup today. He’s the best option in the mid-tier on this slate.    

Zach Davies, MIL (@PIT) (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.8K)

If you’re looking to punt pitcher today then this is where I’d try to end up. Despite the 0-1 record, Davies hasn’t pitched bad in his three starts since returning from the disabled list. He’s gone exactly five innings in all three and allowed two, two, and one earned run in those games. He has a 3.59 xFIP with 12 strikeouts and only three walks in 15 innings. What’s interesting is all three games have been at home so this will be the first time he goes on the road. But, despite being away, it’s a park upgrade going from Miller Park which is 16th in runs scored and 10th in home runs to PNC Park which is 26th in runs scored and 24th in home runs allowed. The Pirates are not a threatening lineup, with only a .141 ISO and .312 wOBA this season. In the last 30 days those numbers have dropped to a .130 ISO and .301 wOBA. The downside here is the strikeouts. Pittsburgh is only striking out 18.7% of the time which is one of the lowest in all of baseball. That number has increased to 20.7% over the last month so at least we are looking at a small boost. Due to the lack of upside I don’t love Davies in tournaments I’m viewing him more as a floor play for cash games as the SP2. The activity in Vegas is very encouraging for Davies’ outlook. The Brewers opened as -115 favorites which has climbed to -130. The Pirates opened with a 4.2 implied run total that has dropped to 3.8 runs. Again, not typically someone I would want to use but with our limited options today Vegas and his recent results are leading me here.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $4.6K, FD: $4K)

Nelson Cruz against a lefty. I've preached this all season and I know you're sick of hearing it by now but it works. It will work even better today with the massive park upgrade for Cruz going to one of the best hitter's environments in all of baseball down in Texas. He has a .295 ISO and 46.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Max Muncy, LAD: 1B/3B (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.1K)

After a scorching start to the season we haven't heard as much about Muncy in the second half. He's still having a great year and he's been particularly strong against right-handed pitching. He has a massive .331 ISO and 46% hard-hit rate while Nix is allowing a .247 xISO to left-handed hitters. It's not the best ballpark for home runs but Muncy should thrive in this spot today.

Daniel Murphy, CHC: 2B (DK: $4K, FD: $3K)

I'll talk about the left-handed Cubs bats in more detail soon but Murphy in particular is standing out to me at second base. He has a .205 ISO this season and a .597 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games against right-handed pitching. His more recent numbers are strong as well with a 38.5% hard-hit rate and a 91.8 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.1K)

Just going to go ahead and copy and paste what I wrote yesterday since Rich Hill was a late scratch and his start was pushed to today instead: You must get so sick of me talking about Reyes in the value bat section so often. He sticks out like a sore thumb with dollar signs all over it every time he faces left-handed pitching. Rich Hill allows a .197 xISO to right-handed hitters. He also throws his fastball 60% of the time. Reyes has a .498 xISO and .475 xwOBA against fastballs this season.

Elvis Andrus, TEX: SS (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Good opportunity here to get some cheap exposure to the Rangers, at home, against a struggling Marco Gonzales. In the past month Gonzales has allowed 23 earned runs in 23 innings pitched and has just 18 strikeouts during that span. Andrus has a .561 wOBA+ISO and a 2.02 FP/PA against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games.

Wellington Castillo, CWS: C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2K)

Castillo showed some signs of life yesterday going three for five while batting fifth in the order after batting much lower since returning from his suspension. He gets the left-handed Jon Lester today. Castillo has always hit lefty pitching well with a .554 wOBA+ISO and a 2.42 FP/PA over his last 150 games. Since his return to the lineup a couple of weeks ago he's averaging 33.3% hard-hits. He makes for a nice punt catcher option on this slate.

Stacks on Stacks

Chicago Cubs (vs. Lucas Giolito)

The Cubs are not playing good baseball right now. In fact, it’s amazing they still have the lead in the NL Central (though it’s down to just 1.5 games). Their magic number has been stuck on eight for a while now and they really need to step it up if they are going to secure a division title. They get a really good matchup today to help them get back on track against Lucas Giolito. Giolito’s numbers this season are pretty poor, there was a brief period where he flashed at least some of what made him a first round pick in the draft, and now he’s regressing again. In September, he’s made three starts, and has a 5.26 xFIP with only seven strikeouts in 14.1 innings. He also has six walks and has allowed 11 earned runs with three home runs during that span. He’s faced the Tigers, Royals, and Orioles in those three games. Not exactly a difficult stretch of opponents. Today, he gets the Cubs and while they are struggling they are definitely better off against a right-handed pitcher which should give them a boost today. The Cubs have a bunch of left-handed power bats and Giolito really struggles with lefties allowing a .231 xISO and .390 xwOBA to them. Rizzo (.214 ISO, .378 wOBA), Murphy (.205 ISO, .372 wOBA), Zobrist (.367 wOBA), Schwarber (.273 ISO, .355 wOBA), and Happ (.204 ISO, .342 wOBA) are the priorities for me here. Giolito is better but still not great against right-handed hitters so guys like Baez and Bryant are certainly in the conversation as well. The Cubs have the highest implied total on the main slate at 5.4 runs.

Houston Astros (vs. Jaime Barria)

The Astros had a big night going off for eleven runs against the Angels and clinching another playoff birth. There is still work to be done as they have a 3.5 game lead on Oakland and the magic number to clinch the division is seven with only 10 games to play. I’d be shocked if they didn’t ultimately take down the AL West at this point but they won’t be taking their foot off of the gas either in order to ensure avoiding a one-game playoff in the Wild Card. The Angels have allowed double-digit runs to be scored against them now in three straight games. They lost 10-0 against Oakland on 9/19, then they lost 21-3 to Oakland again on 9/20, and finally they lost to the Astros last night 11-3. Today, they’ll send Jaime Barria to the mound who has some pretty ugly reverse splits that should work in favor of this right-handed heavy Houston lineup. He’s allowing a .252 xISO and .375 xwOBA to right-handed hitters as opposed to a .168 xISO and .316 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Bregman (.246 ISO, .394 wOBA), White (.285 ISO, .388 wOBA), Altuve (.372 wOBA), and Springer (.333 wOBA) are the priorities. Tony Kemp is another option. Although Barria is better against lefties Kemp hits right-handed pitching well with a .367 wOBA. Marwin Gonzalez is in play with a .327 wOBA as well. The Astros announced yesterday that Carlos Correa will miss the remainder of the home stand while he continues to try and get healthy before the playoffs so you can comfortably build Houston stacks and leave him out today. The Astros opened with an implied total of 4.8 runs.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Chase De Jong)

The team chasing the Astros, Oakland, won’t go away as they’ve kept themselves at least in the conversation to win the west though at this point they would need a miracle. They are playing great baseball but Houston is also and this is simply going to be a situation where they run out of games. It’s looking very likely that they will have a date with the Yankees in the Wild Card. Regardless, they certainly aren’t going to take their foot off the gas either. Even if their chances of winning the division are slim the Rays are still not eliminated from playoff contention quite yet which means Oakland needs to play hard through the end to secure their postseason birth. They get a great matchup today with Chase De Jong who has two starts in the majors and is 0-1 with a 4.15 xFIP. He hasn’t gone past four innings in either start so we can expect an extended look today at a struggling Twins bullpen as well. Over the past 30 days, the Athletics have a .196 ISO, .346 wOBA and 121 wRC+. This will be De Jong’s toughest test by far considering his other two starts were against Kansas City. Davis, who is running away with the home run race, is on top of my list for stacking this team. I also have interest in Laureano (.250 ISO, .390 wOBA), Chapman (.265 ISO, .384 wOBA), Lowrie (.209 ISO, .364 wOBA), and Piscotty (.232 ISO, .357 wOBA), and Olson (.246 ISO, .348 wOBA). They opened with an implied total of 5.2 runs which is currently tied for second on the main slate.   

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).